The Colts were were the 2nd strongest pass identity of any team in the NFL through seven weeks. Since then, Indianapolis has kicked it up another notch: in week 8, the Colts threw on over 80% of their plays while playing under a Game Script of -11.6 against the Steelers. Well this week, Indianapolis posted a Game Script of +13.0… and still managed to throw on 67% of all plays! Combine the team’s fast tempo with its pass-heavy nature, and you can see why Luck easily leads the league in pass attempts (oh, and pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns). Luck now has 393 attempts; in NFL history, only Drew Bledsoe (401 in 1994) has thrown more passes through 9 games.
In the case of Brady, his name may as well be a proxy for Rob Gronkowski, who has transformed this offense over the past month. New England passed on 68% of plays against the Broncos, despite the Patriots having a Game Script of +11.5. With Stevan Ridley out for the year and Gronkowski playing some of the best football of his career, New England seems destined to stick with this pass-heavy approach. In each of the past three weeks, the Patriots have passed at least 10% more than one would project from the team’s Game Scripts. [1]Based on the formula: 0.000005*GameScript^3 – 0.00003 * Game Script^2 – 0.0082 * Game Script +0.5875.
The largest Game Script of the weekend was also the most surprising: Miami blew out San Diego, 37-0, and posted a Game Script of +19.8 along the way. Miami led 7-0, 20-0, and 37-0 after each of the first three quarters in a total annihilation of of the Chargers. Miami was more pass-happy, and San Diego more run-happy, than you might expect: as a result, despite the one-sided nature of the game, the Chargers only passed on 8.5% more plays than the Dolphins. The table below shows the Game Scripts data from each game in week 9:
- In addition to New England, the Broncos were also really pass-happy. In fact, it was the first game in NFL history where both teams threw over 50 passes. Denver wound up passing on 77% of its plays, which is what happens when you combine Peyton Manning with a -11.5 Game Script. This was the 2nd worst Game Script of the Manning/Denver era, behind a -12.9 against the Falcons in 2012. [2]You know, in the regular season. In the Super Bowl, Denver had a Game Script of -20.9.
- The Patriots/Broncos game provided a glimpse of what football will be like in the future. In Roger Goodell’s never-ending quest to please all fans, the NFL also gave us a glimpse of what football was like in 1932. Of course, that team was coached by Brian Schottenheimer. The Rams, despite a Game Script of -1.6, ran more often than the team passed. One reason might be that Austin Davis gained just 102 yards on 25 dropbacks, which would make for a decent performance by a running back (less decent when combined with two interceptions). But it’s not as though the ground game was really going, either: Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham combined for only 75 yards on 23 rushes. St. Louis won despite gaining less than 200 yards, committing two turnovers, and scoring just 13 points.
- San Francisco, curiously enough, had a really pass-heavy game plan, throwing on 2/3 of its plays despite an even game plan. In fact, Colin Kaepernick was involved on 46 plays (33 passes, 8 sacks, and 5 rushes) while Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde were limited to just 16 carries (and 66 yards). Why? Who knows. Both teams committed 9 penalties, and were a combined 7 for 24 on 3rd downs. This was an ugly game to watch.
- Your weekly Jets update: despite a Game Script of 11.2, both the Jets and Chiefs had the same pass/run ratio. Yes, teams go pass-heavy against New York, and yes, the Jets go run-heavy against anyone. It takes a blowout to bring the pass/run ratios to even when involving the Jets. Oh, and with Ben Roethlisberger on deck for this weekend, can we rule out another 6 TD performance?
Finally, and as always, the Game Scripts page has been updated.