These two men like to throw the ball.
The Colts were were the 2nd strongest pass identity of any team in the NFL through seven weeks. Since then, Indianapolis has kicked it up another notch: in week 8, the Colts threw on over 80% of their plays while playing under a Game Script of -11.6 against the Steelers. Well this week, Indianapolis posted a Game Script of +13.0… and still managed to throw on 67% of all plays! Combine the team’s fast tempo with its pass-heavy nature, and you can see why Luck easily leads the league in pass attempts (oh, and pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns). Luck now has 393 attempts; in NFL history, only Drew Bledsoe (401 in 1994) has thrown more passes through 9 games.
In the case of Brady, his name may as well be a proxy for Rob Gronkowski, who has transformed this offense over the past month. New England passed on 68% of plays against the Broncos, despite the Patriots having a Game Script of +11.5. With Stevan Ridley out for the year and Gronkowski playing some of the best football of his career, New England seems destined to stick with this pass-heavy approach. In each of the past three weeks, the Patriots have passed at least 10% more than one would project from the team’s Game Scripts. [1]Based on the formula: 0.000005*GameScript^3 – 0.00003 * Game Script^2 – 0.0082 * Game Script +0.5875.
The largest Game Script of the weekend was also the most surprising: Miami blew out San Diego, 37-0, and posted a Game Script of +19.8 along the way. Miami led 7-0, 20-0, and 37-0 after each of the first three quarters in a total annihilation of of the Chargers. Miami was more pass-happy, and San Diego more run-happy, than you might expect: as a result, despite the one-sided nature of the game, the Chargers only passed on 8.5% more plays than the Dolphins. The table below shows the Game Scripts data from each game in week 9:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | SDG | Boxscore | 37 | 0 | 37 | 19.8 | 39 | 35 | 52.7% | 30 | 19 | 61.2% | |
| IND | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 40 | 24 | 16 | 13 | 47 | 23 | 67.1% | 55 | 20 | 73.3% |
| NWE | DEN | Boxscore | 43 | 21 | 22 | 11.5 | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | 58 | 17 | 77.3% | |
| KAN | NYJ | Boxscore | 24 | 10 | 14 | 11.2 | 32 | 24 | 57.1% | 39 | 29 | 57.4% | |
| SEA | OAK | Boxscore | 30 | 24 | 6 | 9.5 | 36 | 38 | 48.6% | 42 | 18 | 70% | |
| NOR | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 28 | 10 | 18 | 6.4 | 38 | 37 | 50.7% | 32 | 23 | 58.2% |
| CIN | JAX | Boxscore | 33 | 23 | 10 | 6.1 | 33 | 34 | 49.3% | 35 | 25 | 58.3% | |
| PIT | BAL | Boxscore | 43 | 23 | 20 | 5.7 | 40 | 24 | 62.5% | 49 | 18 | 73.1% | |
| PHI | @ | HOU | Boxscore | 31 | 21 | 10 | 3.9 | 39 | 40 | 49.4% | 31 | 28 | 52.5% |
| CLE | TAM | Boxscore | 22 | 17 | 5 | 1.8 | 36 | 28 | 56.3% | 35 | 26 | 57.4% | |
| ARI | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 28 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 36 | 29 | 55.4% | 34 | 25 | 57.6% |
| STL | @ | SFO | Boxscore | 13 | 10 | 3 | -1.4 | 25 | 27 | 48.1% | 41 | 20 | 67.2% |
| MIN | WAS | Boxscore | 29 | 26 | 3 | -3.7 | 44 | 27 | 62% | 33 | 28 | 54.1% |
- In addition to New England, the Broncos were also really pass-happy. In fact, it was the first game in NFL history where both teams threw over 50 passes. Denver wound up passing on 77% of its plays, which is what happens when you combine Peyton Manning with a -11.5 Game Script. This was the 2nd worst Game Script of the Manning/Denver era, behind a -12.9 against the Falcons in 2012. [2]You know, in the regular season. In the Super Bowl, Denver had a Game Script of -20.9.
- The Patriots/Broncos game provided a glimpse of what football will be like in the future. In Roger Goodell’s never-ending quest to please all fans, the NFL also gave us a glimpse of what football was like in 1932. Of course, that team was coached by Brian Schottenheimer. The Rams, despite a Game Script of -1.6, ran more often than the team passed. One reason might be that Austin Davis gained just 102 yards on 25 dropbacks, which would make for a decent performance by a running back (less decent when combined with two interceptions). But it’s not as though the ground game was really going, either: Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham combined for only 75 yards on 23 rushes. St. Louis won despite gaining less than 200 yards, committing two turnovers, and scoring just 13 points.
- San Francisco, curiously enough, had a really pass-heavy game plan, throwing on 2/3 of its plays despite an even game plan. In fact, Colin Kaepernick was involved on 46 plays (33 passes, 8 sacks, and 5 rushes) while Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde were limited to just 16 carries (and 66 yards). Why? Who knows. Both teams committed 9 penalties, and were a combined 7 for 24 on 3rd downs. This was an ugly game to watch.
- Your weekly Jets update: despite a Game Script of 11.2, both the Jets and Chiefs had the same pass/run ratio. Yes, teams go pass-heavy against New York, and yes, the Jets go run-heavy against anyone. It takes a blowout to bring the pass/run ratios to even when involving the Jets. Oh, and with Ben Roethlisberger on deck for this weekend, can we rule out another 6 TD performance?
Finally, and as always, the Game Scripts page has been updated.