The college football regular season is over, with the exception of Army/Navy in two weeks. Below are the final ratings prior to the conference championship games:
It’s worth breaking down the numbers to see that the SRS probably underrates Alabama. Remove the game against The Citadel, and Alabama’s rating rises to 74.9. Alabama beat Louisville, Arkansas, and Louisiana-Lafayette by the scores of 51-14, 65-31, and 56-14. Those are three wins of 34+ points, but all three games hurt Alabama’s SRS rating because of the low SOS of the opponent (and the way my version of the SRS caps margin of victory). Alabama’s rating rises to 79.2 without those games.
Alabama beat all but two teams by 28+ points. So you could argue that Alabama’s two worst games of the year were a 45-23 win over Texas A&M and a 24-0 win over Ole Miss; in those two games, Alabama had single-game SRS ratings of 73.2 and 79.2. If those were the Crimson Tide’s worst performances, then Alabama is probably closer to an 80.0 SRS team than its actual rating, because frankly, the SRS was not designed to handle a team in the 99.9th percentile.
Does the same analysis work with Clemson? The Tigers worst game came against an FCS team, too, because of Furman’s poor rating. Take that game out, and Clemson has an SRS of 70.2. Unlike Alabama, though, Clemson has had two scares: the Tigers got some luck in a 28-26 win over Texas A&M (single game SRS of 61.2) and only beat Syracuse 27-23 (SRS of 57.0). Clemson had two other games where they won by less than 28 points; a 27-7 win over Boston College (69.1) and a 56-35 over South Carolina (69.6). The Tigers won by at least 28 points in their other four games, and I’d be comfortable saying Clemson has an SRS rating closer to 71 or 72, but I’d still put Clemson comfortably behind Alabama. That’s four games with an SRS rating below 70 and not merely due to playing a patsy of an opponent. Clemson is the second best team in college football, but they are still a full tier behind Alabama.
We can also compare Ohio State and Oklahoma, who appear to be fighting for the last playoff spot assuming Alabama and Clemson win their respective conferences (and maybe even if they don’t). Here is how each team has done so far this year:
The Buckeyes have, by far, the worst single game performance: a 25.8 SRS in a 29-point loss to Purdue. Oklahoma has the slightly harder schedule, and that will only get harder against a rematch against Texas (Ohio State faces a slightly weaker foe in Northwestern). For the Buckeyes, the best argument is having the best single game, a blowout over a great Michigan team. But Oklahoma does have the harder schedule: the Big 12 was deep if not particularly top heavy, and Army is a strong OOC win.
It’s close, but I think the committee *should* go with Oklahoma. It’s a close case: two 12-1 conference champions with solid schedules and explosive offenses but mediocre defenses. But if you are looking to split hairs, a 3-point loss to a good Texas team is a whole lot better than a 29-point loss to Purdue (although despite the 6-6 record, Purdue is actually pretty good; they rank 29th in the SRS, the best of any 6-loss team; as an aside, it’s remarkable that Purdue only made it to bowl eligibility by beating Ohio State).
Finally, here are the FCS ratings from this season.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
