What can we learn from Game Scripts splits?

by Chase Stuart on June 9, 2013

Christian Ponder actually played better in the worst Vikings games last year.

When I ask a question in the title of a post, I usually have an answer. But not this time. From 2000 to 2012, 163 different quarterbacks started 16 games. I thought it might be interesting to check out their splits based on the Game Script of each game. I grouped each quarterback’s statistics in their team’s 8 highest Game Scripts and 8 worst Game Scripts in the table below. The statistics in blue are from the 8 best games, while the numbers in red are for the 8 worst games (as measured by average points margin in each game).

I don’t know if individual splits will tell us much, but Rex Grossman had the largest split. In 2006, the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl, he averaged 8.54 AY/A in Chicago’s best 8 games but just 3.24 AY/A in their worst games. Splicing out cause and effect is tricky: in games where a quarterback has lots of interceptions, his team is probably going to be losing and will have a negative game script for that game. In Chicago’s 8 best games that year (according to Game Scripts), Grossman threw 16 TDs and 4 INTs; in their 8 worst, he threw 7 TDs and 16 INTs.

Maybe there’s nothing to make of this. But it’s Sunday, so I’ll present the day and open the question to the crowd. What can we make of Game Scripts splits? Check out the table below.

Name	Yr	GS	Cmp	Att	Yd	TD	INT	AY/A	GS	Cmp	Att	Yd	TD	INT	AY/A	AY/A Diff
Rex Grossman	2006	14.8	141	226	1790	16	4	8.54	-4.1	121	254	1403	7	16	3.24	5.3
Drew Brees	2005	10.4	164	224	1951	16	4	9.33	-2.6	159	276	1625	8	11	4.67	4.7
Matt Ryan	2008	10.6	122	183	1709	10	1	10.19	-1.8	143	251	1731	6	10	5.58	4.6
Kerry Collins	2002	8.7	160	239	2114	15	3	9.54	-2.2	175	306	1959	4	11	5.05	4.5
Eli Manning	2009	10	142	225	2105	18	4	10.16	-12.1	175	284	1916	9	10	5.8	4.4
Joe Flacco	2008	9.7	117	198	1580	9	1	8.66	-2.9	140	230	1391	5	11	4.33	4.3
Drew Bledsoe	2003	6.8	134	216	1626	10	4	7.62	-10.1	140	255	1234	1	8	3.51	4.1
Doug Flutie	2001	5.7	156	252	1966	10	5	7.7	-5.2	138	269	1498	5	13	3.77	3.9
Aaron Brooks	2001	2	157	267	2053	14	4	8.06	-10.4	155	291	1779	12	18	4.15	3.9
Daunte Culpepper	2004	5	182	255	2530	25	4	11.18	-6.3	197	293	2187	14	7	7.34	3.8
Peyton Manning	2003	9.2	179	254	2238	20	3	9.85	-4.2	200	312	2029	9	7	6.07	3.8
Brad Johnson	2003	7	163	249	1886	15	4	8.06	-6.6	191	321	1925	11	17	4.3	3.8
Andy Dalton	2012	9.3	151	238	1862	19	4	8.66	-2.3	178	290	1807	8	12	4.92	3.7
Drew Brees	2007	8.4	220	312	2401	19	4	8.34	-7.4	220	340	2022	9	14	4.62	3.7
Joe Flacco	2009	9.7	152	224	1834	11	1	8.97	-4.5	163	275	1779	10	11	5.4	3.6
Chad Pennington	2006	9.1	176	248	1911	11	4	7.87	-6.2	137	237	1441	6	12	4.31	3.6
Tony Romo	2007	8.6	160	246	2284	21	7	9.71	-3.5	175	274	1927	15	12	6.16	3.6
Tom Brady	2002	8.2	205	302	2223	19	5	7.87	-7.6	168	299	1541	9	9	4.4	3.5
Brett Favre	2009	12.6	172	244	2211	21	2	10.41	-0.6	191	287	1991	12	5	6.99	3.4
Tom Brady	2009	13.5	181	260	2322	22	6	9.58	0.2	190	305	2076	6	7	6.17	3.4
Jake Plummer	2004	9.4	140	224	1859	18	4	9.1	-4.6	163	297	2230	9	16	5.69	3.4
Trent Green	2001	4.5	149	242	2072	9	9	7.63	-6.6	147	281	1711	8	15	4.26	3.4
Donovan McNabb	2008	11.2	169	264	2075	14	2	8.58	-1.7	176	307	1841	9	9	5.26	3.3
Drew Brees	2012	7.1	201	296	2496	26	4	9.58	-6.6	221	374	2681	17	15	6.27	3.3
Quincy Carter	2003	8.1	144	236	1701	10	5	7.1	-4.1	148	269	1601	7	16	3.8	3.3
Peyton Manning	2007	11.5	173	257	2215	20	4	9.47	0.8	164	258	1825	11	10	6.18	3.3
Philip Rivers	2007	14.8	116	178	1375	12	3	8.31	-3	161	282	1777	9	12	5.02	3.3
Jon Kitna	2003	4.9	157	249	1825	19	3	8.31	-5.1	167	271	1766	7	12	5.04	3.3
Brett Favre	2008	9.9	165	231	1729	15	7	7.42	-4.4	178	291	1743	7	15	4.15	3.3
Aaron Brooks	2004	1.8	145	241	2000	11	5	8.28	-9.9	164	301	1810	10	11	5.03	3.2
J.P. Losman	2006	5.5	127	188	1439	11	2	8.35	-7	141	241	1612	8	12	5.11	3.2
Sam Bradford	2010	6	170	270	1826	12	3	7.15	-5.4	184	320	1686	6	12	3.96	3.2
Brett Favre	2001	9.8	160	243	2054	19	4	9.28	-2.5	154	267	1867	13	11	6.11	3.2
Jake Plummer	2005	11.9	132	194	1648	10	1	9.29	1	145	262	1718	8	6	6.14	3.2
Peyton Manning	2001	6.7	158	244	2083	18	9	8.35	-8.7	185	303	2048	8	14	5.21	3.1
Kyle Orton	2009	5.8	132	222	1788	11	2	8.64	-6.9	204	319	2014	10	10	5.53	3.1
Philip Rivers	2008	7.5	139	209	1933	20	3	10.52	-5.3	173	269	2076	14	8	7.42	3.1
Josh Freeman	2010	4.6	143	215	1757	16	1	9.45	-6.8	148	259	1694	9	5	6.37	3.1
Donovan McNabb	2003	8	148	233	1803	11	4	7.91	-1.8	127	245	1413	5	7	4.89	3
Drew Brees	2008	7.9	194	273	2408	19	4	9.55	-5.5	219	362	2661	15	13	6.56	3
Kurt Warner	2008	9	203	285	2469	16	4	9.15	-11	198	313	2114	14	10	6.21	2.9
Philip Rivers	2009	10.8	155	220	2155	16	3	10.64	-1.4	162	266	2099	12	6	7.78	2.9
Jeff Garcia	2001	8.5	136	204	1638	18	4	8.91	-4.3	180	300	1900	14	8	6.07	2.8
Matt Ryan	2012	10.4	191	261	2122	20	2	9.32	-3.2	231	354	2597	12	12	6.49	2.8
Brett Favre	2003	11.6	147	217	1699	20	8	8.01	-2.3	161	254	1662	12	13	5.19	2.8
Tom Brady	2006	11.5	144	232	1693	18	3	8.27	-2.5	175	284	1836	6	9	5.46	2.8
Shaun King	2000	10.2	99	184	1286	14	4	7.53	-0.5	134	244	1483	4	9	4.75	2.8
David Carr	2002	0.8	108	206	1360	5	4	6.21	-10.4	125	238	1232	4	11	3.43	2.8
Josh Freeman	2012	5.6	130	233	1839	16	4	8.49	-5.5	176	325	2226	11	13	5.73	2.8
Tom Brady	2012	13.8	178	270	2235	20	1	9.59	1.5	223	367	2592	14	7	6.97	2.6
Brett Favre	2004	8.4	142	208	1704	16	4	8.87	-9.1	204	332	2384	14	13	6.26	2.6
Mark Brunell	2005	8.6	105	181	1328	13	2	8.28	-4.2	157	273	1722	10	8	5.72	2.6
David Garrard	2009	4	168	261	2033	11	4	7.94	-11	146	255	1564	4	6	5.39	2.6
Rich Gannon	2001	8.8	158	234	1822	15	2	8.68	-1.4	203	315	2006	12	7	6.13	2.6
Jon Kitna	2007	6.4	156	230	1811	8	4	7.79	-13.3	199	331	2257	10	16	5.25	2.5
Matthew Stafford	2011	9.6	200	302	2498	24	5	9.12	-8.3	221	361	2540	17	11	6.61	2.5
Kerry Collins	2000	9.3	161	245	1869	10	3	7.89	-5.3	150	284	1741	12	10	5.39	2.5
Brett Favre	2007	9.5	190	266	2206	18	5	8.8	-0.9	166	269	1949	10	10	6.32	2.5
Jay Cutler	2008	5.4	199	297	2359	14	5	8.13	-8.2	185	319	2167	11	13	5.65	2.5
Matt Hasselbeck	2003	11.8	143	224	1781	16	4	8.58	-3.3	170	289	2060	10	11	6.11	2.5
Philip Rivers	2011	7.9	161	240	2116	13	6	8.78	-5.6	205	342	2508	14	14	6.31	2.5
Drew Brees	2011	12.8	222	303	2747	29	6	10.09	-1.6	246	354	2729	17	8	7.65	2.4
Peyton Manning	2006	8.2	182	271	2442	18	5	9.51	-2.3	180	286	1955	13	4	7.12	2.4
Brett Favre	2002	8.3	163	251	1805	14	4	7.59	-4.5	178	300	1853	13	12	5.24	2.3
Carson Palmer	2006	9	172	252	2261	15	7	8.91	-3.6	152	268	1774	13	6	6.58	2.3
Alex Smith	2011	10.2	133	209	1612	11	1	8.55	-0.7	140	236	1532	6	4	6.24	2.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2011	6.2	170	255	1873	14	8	7.03	-10.5	183	314	1959	10	15	4.73	2.3
Kyle Boller	2004	8	122	213	1217	8	1	6.25	-3.8	136	251	1342	5	10	3.95	2.3
Kurt Warner	2001	14.6	176	240	2253	21	8	9.64	3.8	199	306	2577	15	14	7.34	2.3
Trent Green	2003	12.8	159	244	2138	12	5	8.82	-2.3	171	279	1901	12	7	6.54	2.3
Peyton Manning	2002	6.6	180	266	1981	14	4	7.82	-10.1	212	325	2219	13	15	5.55	2.3
Tony Romo	2009	9.5	172	269	2393	15	3	9.51	-1.5	175	281	2090	11	6	7.26	2.2
Joe Flacco	2010	7.4	146	225	1850	10	2	8.71	0.1	160	264	1772	15	8	6.48	2.2
Aaron Rodgers	2009	13.7	176	253	2300	17	3	9.9	-1	174	288	2134	13	4	7.69	2.2
Daunte Culpepper	2002	5	161	264	1974	13	9	6.93	-8.5	172	285	1879	5	14	4.73	2.2
David Garrard	2008	2.5	162	249	1819	8	3	7.41	-7.9	173	286	1801	7	10	5.21	2.2
Cam Newton	2011	7.3	140	225	1966	12	7	8.4	-4.6	170	292	2085	9	10	6.22	2.2
Eli Manning	2008	11	150	237	1749	14	4	7.8	-2	139	242	1489	7	6	5.62	2.2
Joe Flacco	2011	11.5	130	232	1693	13	4	7.64	-3.2	182	310	1917	7	8	5.47	2.2
Gus Frerotte	2005	4.4	130	231	1570	13	6	6.75	-8.6	127	263	1426	5	7	4.6	2.1
Donovan McNabb	2000	9.7	183	283	1901	13	6	6.68	-3.3	147	286	1464	8	7	4.58	2.1
Derek Anderson	2007	7.1	124	222	1648	16	5	7.85	-6.6	174	305	2139	13	14	5.8	2.1
Aaron Rodgers	2008	6.9	172	250	1973	15	3	8.55	-4.5	169	286	2065	13	10	6.56	2
Michael Vick	2006	3.1	109	187	1344	11	6	6.92	-6.5	95	201	1130	9	7	4.95	2
Philip Rivers	2010	11	156	218	2110	16	6	9.91	-6.3	201	323	2600	14	7	7.94	2
Drew Brees	2010	9.1	204	300	2275	18	8	7.58	-1.3	244	358	2345	15	14	5.63	2
Trent Green	2004	6.9	180	250	2219	14	6	8.92	-3.5	189	306	2372	13	11	6.98	1.9
Rich Gannon	2000	12.4	131	209	1543	18	3	8.46	-1.8	153	264	1887	10	8	6.54	1.9
Mark Brunell	2000	10	160	257	1910	11	4	7.59	-5.2	151	255	1730	9	10	5.73	1.9
Andrew Luck	2012	4.9	157	280	2019	10	3	7.44	-7.1	182	347	2355	13	15	5.59	1.9
Matt Schaub	2009	8.7	192	283	2487	16	6	8.96	-4.7	204	300	2283	13	9	7.13	1.8
Jake Delhomme	2005	11.1	114	186	1539	12	5	8.35	-3.7	148	249	1882	12	11	6.53	1.8
Alex Smith	2006	2.6	116	189	1306	9	5	6.67	-14	141	253	1584	7	11	4.86	1.8
Tom Brady	2007	17.3	194	265	2334	30	4	10.39	3.6	204	313	2472	20	4	8.6	1.8
Brett Favre	2006	6.4	177	302	2170	10	9	6.51	-7.9	166	311	1715	8	9	4.73	1.8
Brett Favre	2000	7.3	161	275	1957	9	5	6.95	-5.4	177	305	1855	11	11	5.18	1.8
Tommy Maddox	2003	5.5	126	214	1448	12	5	6.84	-6.2	172	305	1966	6	12	5.07	1.8
Jay Fiedler	2001	7.5	126	208	1563	13	7	7.25	-7	147	242	1727	7	12	5.48	1.8
Peyton Manning	2010	8.6	198	306	2132	14	1	7.74	-3.9	252	373	2568	19	16	5.97	1.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2012	6.4	140	224	1516	12	3	7.24	-10.6	166	281	1884	12	13	5.48	1.8
Sam Bradford	2012	2.9	138	240	1803	10	5	7.41	-7.5	190	311	1899	11	8	5.66	1.8
Trent Green	2005	10.3	152	237	2041	9	4	8.61	-3.8	165	270	1973	8	6	6.9	1.7
Jake Plummer	2001	4.1	136	238	1761	11	5	7.38	-6.8	168	287	1892	7	9	5.67	1.7
Peyton Manning	2000	9.2	178	270	2207	17	5	8.6	-4.5	179	301	2206	16	10	6.9	1.7
Rich Gannon	2002	12.3	186	270	2192	14	3	8.66	-1.2	232	348	2497	12	7	6.96	1.7
Eli Manning	2011	3.2	159	271	2337	17	5	9.05	-5.3	200	318	2596	12	11	7.36	1.7
Matt Schaub	2012	10.7	164	255	1886	13	2	8.06	-5.4	186	289	2122	9	10	6.41	1.7
Eli Manning	2005	9.1	113	227	1604	13	5	7.22	-2.3	181	330	2158	11	12	5.57	1.7
Matt Schaub	2010	4	156	236	1958	11	4	8.47	-9.6	209	338	2412	13	8	6.84	1.6
David Carr	2004	3.7	127	207	1747	7	6	7.81	-8.4	158	259	1784	9	8	6.19	1.6
Brett Favre	2005	5.1	181	294	1886	10	9	5.72	-8.1	191	313	1995	10	20	4.14	1.6
Matt Ryan	2010	9.8	187	280	1909	17	3	7.55	-2.3	170	291	1796	11	6	6	1.6
Aaron Brooks	2003	6.4	143	245	1683	17	2	7.89	-8.8	163	273	1863	7	6	6.35	1.5
Philip Rivers	2006	11.1	136	207	1650	10	3	8.29	-1.9	148	253	1738	12	6	6.75	1.5
Eli Manning	2012	10.9	143	239	1773	17	5	7.9	-7.1	178	297	2175	9	10	6.41	1.5
Drew Bledsoe	2002	3.9	163	269	1952	12	3	7.65	-6.8	212	341	2407	12	12	6.18	1.5
Cam Newton	2012	7.4	141	240	2010	9	4	8.38	-4.8	139	245	1859	10	8	6.93	1.4
Peyton Manning	2012	11.6	200	284	2371	18	3	9.14	-3.7	200	299	2288	19	8	7.72	1.4
Jake Delhomme	2008	8.8	112	183	1650	10	8	8.14	-3.3	134	231	1638	5	4	6.74	1.4
Jason Campbell	2008	2.1	157	242	1584	9	1	7.1	-6.1	158	264	1661	4	5	5.74	1.4
Philip Rivers	2012	9.2	166	243	1764	16	7	7.28	-4.7	172	284	1842	10	8	5.92	1.4
Marc Bulger	2006	5.3	162	260	2020	11	2	8.27	-6	208	328	2281	13	6	6.92	1.3
Steve Beuerlein	2000	7.6	177	281	2036	14	9	6.8	-5.2	147	252	1694	5	9	5.51	1.3
Tom Brady	2010	15.6	166	247	1987	20	0	9.66	-0.7	158	245	1913	16	4	8.38	1.3
Kordell Stewart	2001	8.2	128	206	1531	9	5	7.21	0.9	138	236	1578	5	6	5.97	1.2
Aaron Rodgers	2012	9.6	182	277	2171	25	3	9.16	-3.5	189	275	2124	14	5	7.92	1.2
Tom Brady	2011	8.4	195	286	2570	20	5	9.6	0.1	206	325	2665	19	7	8.4	1.2
Jon Kitna	2001	1.3	147	254	1487	6	8	4.91	-7.6	166	327	1729	6	14	3.73	1.2
Tony Romo	2012	0.6	190	278	2167	13	6	7.76	-6.6	235	370	2736	15	13	6.62	1.1
Drew Brees	2002	5.5	139	231	1466	9	5	6.15	-8.8	181	295	1818	8	11	5.03	1.1
Russell Wilson	2012	12	123	180	1493	15	5	8.71	-1.1	129	213	1625	11	5	7.61	1.1
Carson Palmer	2009	8	139	224	1548	15	7	6.84	-6	143	242	1546	6	6	5.77	1.1
Aaron Brooks	2002	6.6	119	241	1627	13	4	7.08	-4.2	164	287	1945	14	11	6.03	1.1
Daunte Culpepper	2000	6.4	153	225	1985	17	8	8.73	-5.5	144	249	1952	16	8	7.68	1.1
Eli Manning	2007	5.2	141	235	1507	11	7	6.01	-5.8	156	294	1829	12	13	5.05	1
Jeff Garcia	2000	7.3	179	273	2125	13	2	8.41	-9.9	176	288	2153	18	8	7.48	0.9
David Carr	2006	2.6	133	200	1218	4	2	6.04	-9.7	169	242	1549	7	10	5.12	0.9
Tim Couch	2001	5.9	128	212	1443	10	9	5.84	-5.8	144	242	1597	7	12	4.95	0.9
Mark Sanchez	2011	5.8	145	237	1598	13	8	6.32	-7.4	163	306	1876	13	10	5.51	0.8
Vinny Testaverde	2004	2.5	143	237	1763	10	10	6.38	-6.1	154	258	1769	7	10	5.66	0.7
Jason Campbell	2009	2.3	158	244	1745	9	5	6.97	-9.4	169	263	1873	11	10	6.25	0.7
Drew Bledsoe	2004	9.6	129	225	1392	11	5	6.16	-4.2	127	225	1540	9	11	5.44	0.7
Eli Manning	2010	11.9	163	264	1839	14	7	6.83	-5.9	176	275	2163	17	18	6.16	0.7
Drew Bledsoe	2005	5.4	148	241	1779	9	6	7.01	-6.5	152	258	1860	14	11	6.38	0.6
Jake Delhomme	2004	6.9	129	214	1592	14	6	7.49	-6.5	181	319	2294	15	9	6.86	0.6
Trent Green	2002	9	142	222	1739	18	7	8.04	-4.4	145	248	1951	8	6	7.42	0.6
Jake Plummer	2002	-1.8	144	281	1481	10	7	4.86	-12.8	140	249	1491	8	13	4.28	0.6
Jon Kitna	2006	2.2	194	315	2236	13	11	6.35	-8.4	178	281	1972	8	11	5.83	0.5
Carson Palmer	2007	5.7	183	268	1981	12	9	6.78	-6.1	190	307	2150	14	11	6.3	0.5
Matthew Stafford	2012	2.6	212	366	2587	11	9	6.56	-7.8	223	361	2380	9	8	6.09	0.5
Steve McNair	2002	8.8	126	200	1269	10	3	6.67	-4.5	175	292	2118	12	12	6.23	0.4
Matt Hasselbeck	2007	9.5	174	271	1952	17	7	7.3	-3.4	178	291	2014	11	5	6.9	0.4
Joey Harrington	2004	4.5	113	195	1239	9	5	6.12	-8.3	161	294	1808	10	7	5.76	0.4
Ben Roethlisberger	2008	7.1	120	197	1394	8	6	6.52	-1.3	161	272	1907	9	9	6.18	0.3
Eli Manning	2006	7.1	132	235	1374	12	6	5.72	-6.3	169	287	1870	12	12	5.47	0.2
Jay Cutler	2009	3.6	155	277	1813	13	12	5.53	-10.2	181	278	1853	14	14	5.41	0.1
Tom Brady	2004	10.9	128	219	1674	14	6	7.69	1	160	255	2018	14	8	7.6	0.1
Tom Brady	2003	8.7	153	256	1548	13	2	6.71	-2.3	164	271	2072	10	10	6.72	0
Jake Delhomme	2003	7.4	139	223	1626	8	9	6.19	-4.5	127	226	1593	11	7	6.63	-0.4
Chad Pennington	2008	6.5	157	225	1655	7	2	7.58	-3.6	164	251	1998	12	5	8.02	-0.4
Christian Ponder	2012	9.9	138	216	1242	8	5	5.45	-4.2	162	267	1693	10	7	5.91	-0.5
Andy Dalton	2011	4.6	141	232	1409	10	5	5.97	-5.8	159	284	1989	10	8	6.44	-0.5
Peyton Manning	2009	10.7	220	321	2385	19	8	7.49	-3.2	173	250	2115	14	8	8.14	-0.6
Vinny Testaverde	2001	7.1	135	231	1388	8	8	5.14	-5.4	125	210	1364	7	6	5.88	-0.7
Carson Palmer	2010	2.8	142	256	1613	12	11	5.3	-7.8	220	330	2357	14	9	6.76	-1.5
Kerry Collins	2001	3.9	124	228	1348	7	9	4.75	-6.4	203	340	2416	12	7	6.89	-2.1
Average		7.8	155	243	1871	13.9	4.8	7.95	-5.1	172	287	1941	10.5	9.9	5.94	2

Tagged as: Game Scripts

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