The NFL playoffs began in very entertaining fashion in Indianapolis. The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles on the first drive of the game to a concussion, but stormed out to a 38-10 lead. Then the Colts pulled off the second greatest comeback in NFL history, eventually winning 45-44. The much-maligned Alex Smith had the game of his life, finishing 30 of 46 for 378 yards, with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions while also rushing for 57 yards.

Of course, Andrew Luck had an incredible game, too, even if it wasn’t necessarily as efficient. Luck went 29/45 for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns to counter his 3 interceptions, rushed for 45 yards, and recovered a Donald Brown fumble and ran it in for the touchdown.

Which made me wonder: where does this game rank among the greatest quarterback battles? To make life simpler, I’m only going to look at passing statistics, although obviously both players added some value on the ground. Smith averaged 9.23 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, defined as (Passing Yards + 20*TD – 45*INT – Sack Yards) divided by (Pass Attempts + Sacks). The NFL average in 2013 was 5.87 ANY/A, which means Smith produced 3.36 ANY/A over average. And, since he had 48 pass attempts (including sacks), that means Smith provided 161 yards over average.

Luck’s averages were hurt by the three interceptions, but he still produced 8.23 ANY/A and therefore 2.41 ANY/A over average. That means, over his 46 dropbacks, he produced 111 yards of value over average. So where does that mean this game ranks among all playoff games since 1970? My initial thought was to simply add the two value over average numbers, but that ended up producing a list dominated by great games by one quarterback. To counter this, I decided to only look at games where both quarterbacks were above average and to instead take the Harmonic Mean of their values. This wound up producing a pretty good list, and it places Luck/Smith at #9.

Here’s how to read the table below. The highest-ranked game was in 2009, where Arizona traveled to Green Bay. This was in the Wildcard round, and the “W” is linked to the PFR boxscore of that game. Aaron Rodgers was 28 of 42 for 423 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, and was sacked 5 times for 19 yards. He produced a value of 174 yards over average. That was pretty good, but the home QB, Kurt Warner, was even better. He went 29/33 for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns with no picks, and was sacked just one time for four yards. He produced 283 yards of value over average, and the two quarterbacks produced a harmonic mean of 215. The table below shows the top 50 ^[1]One disclaimer: I actually ran this query after the wild card round and never re-ran it, but I’m pretty sure none of the later games in the playoffs would make the list. playoff quarterback battles:

While placing Warner/Rodgers on top is very appropriate, the number two game on the list doesn’t meet the intent of this post: the Rams took a 49-17 lead in the fourth quarter before Jeff George threw three meaningless touchdowns. The third game is the Epic in Miami, which was essentially a 2013 game that took place in 1981. No arguments there.

The Lions/Saints playoff game from 2011 is next on the list: both quarterbacks dominated, although that game lacked the end-game excitement of Colts/Chiefs. The Panthers/Patriots Super Bowl comes in as the highest ranked title game, and that seems to jive with popular opinion. The two teams produced 37 points in the fourth quarter alone.

I doubt many remember the Jets/Raiders game that comes in at #6, although that was a very entertaining Wild Card game where a 39-year-old Jerry Rice proved to be uncoverable, catching 9 passes for 183 yards and one touchdown. The teams combined for 912 total yards which, at the time, was tied for the 6th most ever in a playoff game. The teams kept trading fourth quarter touchdowns, with the Jets cutting the lead to 7 with two minutes left. On third-and-11 at the Raiders 20, with 1:40 left, Charlie Garner escaped the Jets defense and rushed 80 yards for the game winner. This game probably lacked the high-end passing prowess of Luck/Smith, but neither quarterback threw an interception. The league average ANY/A was only 5.20 back then (which in itself is kind of crazy to think about), so the era adjustments vault this game ahead of Chiefs/Colts.

The 7th game on the list, Chargers/Colts in 2007, was another classic. Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, Darren Sproles, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, and Legedu Naanee all caught passes of 20+ yards for San Diego, and Craig Davis added an 18-yard catch. Peyton Manning was his typical self, and neither quarterback was sacked.  This was the game where Rivers tore his ACL and Billy Volek finished the Colts off, scoring the game-winning touchdown on a quarterback sneak.  Of course, that deprived of us a New England/Indianapolis AFC Championship Game rematch, and a gimpy Rivers was unable to do much against the Patriots the next week.

Lost in the 1987 AFC Championship Game — The Fumble — was the marvelous game had by both quarterbacks. Jon Elway averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt, helped out by an 80-yard touchdown to Mark Jackson, while Bernie Kosar threw for 356 yards and three scores. The Browns leading receiver that day? Earnest Byner.

I’d quibble with the Vikings/Rams game, but otherwise, I think this is a pretty good list of the top passing showdowns in the modern era of playoff football.

And, of course, we can also look at the worst games. I used the same method, and eliminated any game where one quarterback had an above-average game. Only one Super Bowl makes the list, but I don’t think anyone will argue with the presence of Seahawks/Steelers. ^[2]Again, I didn’t re-run the numbers for the final three rounds of the playoffs, although off the top of my head, I’m not sure any game would come close to qualifying.

I can’t argue with the Jets/Dolphins 1982 AFC Championship Game making the list. That was as ugly a passing matching as you’ll ever see. Miami won 14-0, and half of those points came via an A.J. Duhe interception. Of course, this game was known as the Mud Bowl, and the field conditions were horrendous. Although I’m not even sure that’s enough to excuse Richard Todd’s ugly pick six.