A month ago, I took a look at the quarterback situation in the NFL. Most teams already have either a franchise-type quarterback or a quarterback on a cheap rookie contract. There are another five teams — the Dolphins, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, and Ravens — that don’t really stand out as natural Cousins fits, either because of the cap hit of their current quarterback or that Cousins wouldn’t provide much of an upgrade, if any.

That leaves six teams — the Bills, Broncos, Browns, Jets, Vikings, and Cardinals — that are really looking for quarterbacks. Cleveland and New York have both a ton of cap space and a premium draft pick, which cuts both ways: either team can offer Cousins whatever money they want, or decide to not even enter the Cousins sweepstakes. The Cardinals don’t have much in the way of cap space or premium draft picks, making them the team wanting to add a franchise quarterback but without many resources. The Bills and Broncos have solid draft capital (Buffalo has two first round picks, Denver owns the fifth pick) but not a ton of salary cap room.

That leaves Minnesota as perhaps the team best positioned to add a quarterback just via free agency. The Vikings don’t have much draft capital but have enough salary cap space to offer Cousins a premium contract. Oh, but there’s just one problem: Minnesota had three quality quarterbacks in the locker room last year (Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford), each of whom the team could justify building around in 2019.

So, where will Cousins go? Here are my thoughts.

Cleveland

Despite the most cap room of any team in football, this feels like a longshot. The Browns are not a win-now team and own the first and fourth picks in the draft. This should set Cleveland up to draft a quarterback to build for the future, rather than find a strong veteran passer (or find a veteran passer who isn’t Cousins).

Perhaps more importantly, what would cause Cousins to pick the Browns? Unless the money is significantly more than what other teams are offering, or there is an ability for Cousins to leave Cleveland after only a year or two, it doesn’t make much sense for the quarterback with the most leverage since Peyton Manning to have his choice of suitors and pick an 0-16 team. And given Cousins’ concerns with ownership in Washington, I wouldn’t be surprised if ownership in Cleveland was enough to write the team off his short list.

Buffalo

The Bills don’t have much to offer in the way of, well, much. Whether it’s cap space, skill position talent on offense, or location, Buffalo is going to rank close to last on the list for Cousins. If this turns into a beauty pageant, it’s hard to see Cousins choosing western New York. And I would suspect that the way the organization has treated Tyrod Taylor — who has had a similar Total QBR over the last three years to Cousins — won’t help the team’s cause.

Arizona

The Cardinals don’t have much cap space, but offer an upgrade in skill position talent (David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald) and weather relative to Buffalo.  The Cardinals have a new coaching staff in place, with offensive coordinator Mike McCoy now working under new head coach Steve Wilks (formerly defensive coordinator in Carolina).  Arizona has the 15th pick and not much cap space, which means the team might be a more natural fit for drafting a quarterback.  We would presume that every team on this list (with the possible exception of the Bills) would offer more money to Cousins, but Arizona is a solid fit for Cousins if you, ya know, ignore money.

Jets

Other than the Browns, no team is in fantastic cap shape quite like New York.  There is no limit to how much the Jets can offer questions, so the two questions are: how much do the Jets want Cousins and how much does Cousins want the Jets?

With the sixth pick in the draft, the Jets will have the chance to draft a quarterback, although maybe not their top quarterback.  New York could also trade up if there is one quarterback the team really wants.  Nobody knows how the Jets feel about Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield, to say nothing of second-tier prospects like Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk.  Or, of course, how the Jets feel about Cousins.  If the Jets view Cousins as the best of the bunch, they will act accordingly, but if one of the college prospects has caught New York’s eye, the market for Cousins may be smaller than we think.

As for Cousins, would he want to come to New York? The Jets lack stability at owner, general manager, head coach, and offensive coordinator: team owner Woody Johnson is currently serving as the United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom (his brother Chris is currently serving as the team’s CEO and de facto owner), GM Mike Maccagnan and HC Todd Bowles are both on the hot seat after a 20-28 record in three seasons, and new OC Jeremy Bates (who served as QB coach last season) will be the team’s 6th offensive coordinator in 8 seasons. Add in a New York media that feeds on negative press: they will call Cousins overrated and overpaid before the ink is dry on his new contract, and it’s hardly a welcoming environment for Cousins. Oh, and it’s not like the supporting cast on offense has much in the way of plus players.

The Jets can offer a lot of money, but New York would finish near the pack on most other items on the Cousins checklist.

Denver and Minnesota

These would appear to be the two most promising fits.  At the simplest of levels, Cousins probably doesn’t want to go to the Jets or Browns, and the Bills and Cardinals can’t afford him. Minnesota and Denver are both attractive destinations (over the last four seasons, both rank in the top ten in winning percentage), have strong management in place, and are win-now teams with good defenses and good wide receivers.   From those perspectives, the Vikings and Broncos are head and shoulders ahead of the pack.

Minnesota can offer the most money, while Denver has the fifth pick in the draft.  So it certainly feels like Cousins if the Vikings choice to lose.  Not only can they offer more money to him than the Broncos, but they also have the incentive to do so.  On the other hand, the Broncos may not have the faith or desire to invest in a rookie quarterback, and Minnesota may want to give Bradford or Bridgewater or Keenum another try, rather than devote an exorbitant sum of cap space to Keenum.

What do you guys think?  If I had to make my pick, I’ll say that Cousins will be a Vikings.