Scott Kacsmar recently wrote about Robert Griffin III’s struggles on third downs last season. Despite Griffin’s otherworldly rate stats, that was one area where he really struggled in 2012. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how all quarterbacks fared on “third downs” last season. I put that in quotes because I’m including fourth down data, but don’t want to write third and fourth down throughout this post. Regular readers may recall I did something similar last November, but now we can work with full 2012 season numbers.
To grade third down performance, I included sacks but threw out all rushing data (not for any moral reason, just in the interest of time). The first step in evaluating third down performance is to calculate the league average conversion rate on third downs for each distance. Next, I came up with a best-fit smoothed line based on the data, which is based off the following formula:
Conversion Rate = -0.0001 * Distance^2 – 0.0224 * Distance + 0.5301
Take a look at the table below. For example, there were 309 passes (i.e., pass attempts or sacks — scrambles are not included) and the league-wide conversion rate was 51.1%. Using the best-fit formula, the smoothed rate is 50.8%. There is nothing groundbreaking here — the conversion rates drop as the “to go” number increases, but it helps to quantify what we already know.
| To Go | Passes | First Downs | Rate | Smoothed Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 309 | 158 | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| 2 | 415 | 208 | 50.1% | 48.5% |
| 3 | 487 | 207 | 42.5% | 46.2% |
| 4 | 512 | 227 | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| 5 | 559 | 226 | 40.4% | 41.6% |
| 6 | 541 | 228 | 42.1% | 39.2% |
| 7 | 521 | 181 | 34.7% | 36.8% |
| 8 | 426 | 143 | 33.6% | 34.5% |
| 9 | 365 | 116 | 31.8% | 32% |
| 10 | 728 | 220 | 30.2% | 29.6% |
| 11 | 213 | 71 | 33.3% | 27.2% |
| 12 | 153 | 39 | 25.5% | 24.7% |
| 13 | 135 | 24 | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| 14 | 107 | 22 | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| 15 | 143 | 22 | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| 16 | 62 | 5 | 8.1% | 14.6% |
| 17 | 68 | 12 | 17.6% | 12% |
| 18 | 50 | 3 | 6% | 9.5% |
| 19 | 53 | 3 | 5.7% | 6.8% |
| 20 | 48 | 3 | 6.3% | 5% |
Once we know the expected conversion rate for each distance, it’s easy to grade the quarterbacks. The next table is a bit complicated, so let me just walk you through the best third down quarterback in the league last year. Peyton Manning had 176 third down pass plays in 2012. On average, those third down passes came with 8.00 yards to go, and a league-average quarterback would have been expected to convert 37.7% of those third downs (based on the above chart). That translates to 66.3 Expected 1st Down Conversions by Manning (176 * 37.7%). Instead, Manning actually converted 83 first downs, for a 47.2% 1st Down conversion rate. That gives him 16.7 1st Downs over Expectation (i.e., 83 – 66.3), and he had a 9.5% higher rate (47.2-37.7) than the league average quarterback would have given the same situations. That 9.5% number is what the table is sorted by, each quarterback’s per-attempt differential over expectation. The last column is each quarterback’s Net Yards per Attempt on third downs.
| Rk | QB | 3D Pass | Avg To Go | Exp. Conv Rate | Exp Conv | 1D | 1D Rate | 1D Ov Exp | 1D Rt Ov Exp | NY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peyton Manning | 176 | 8 | 37.7% | 66.3 | 83 | 47.2% | 16.7 | 9.5% | 7.66 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 186 | 8.41 | 36% | 66.9 | 82 | 44.1% | 15.1 | 8.1% | 6.27 |
| 3 | Matt Ryan | 186 | 7.77 | 36.9% | 68.7 | 83 | 44.6% | 14.3 | 7.7% | 6.04 |
| 4 | Tony Romo | 188 | 8.72 | 35.4% | 66.5 | 80 | 42.6% | 13.5 | 7.2% | 6.09 |
| 5 | Matt Hasselbeck | 80 | 8.99 | 35.4% | 28.3 | 34 | 42.5% | 5.7 | 7.1% | 5.8 |
| 6 | Michael Vick | 116 | 8.78 | 34.6% | 40.1 | 48 | 41.4% | 7.9 | 6.8% | 6.07 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 226 | 8.04 | 36.6% | 82.6 | 98 | 43.4% | 15.4 | 6.8% | 6.05 |
| 8 | Drew Brees | 202 | 8.56 | 36.9% | 74.5 | 87 | 43.1% | 12.5 | 6.2% | 7.18 |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | 144 | 7.84 | 36.5% | 52.5 | 61 | 42.4% | 8.5 | 5.9% | 5.8 |
| 10 | Andrew Luck | 205 | 8.74 | 34.9% | 71.6 | 79 | 38.5% | 7.4 | 3.6% | 6.19 |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | 152 | 7.82 | 37.2% | 56.5 | 62 | 40.8% | 5.5 | 3.6% | 6.6 |
| 12 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 163 | 7.97 | 35.7% | 58.2 | 64 | 39.3% | 5.8 | 3.5% | 6.15 |
| 13 | Aaron Rodgers | 188 | 8.21 | 36.4% | 68.4 | 73 | 38.8% | 4.6 | 2.4% | 6.8 |
| 14 | Matt Cassel | 95 | 8.43 | 34.4% | 32.7 | 35 | 36.8% | 2.3 | 2.4% | 5.97 |
| 15 | Christian Ponder | 174 | 7.52 | 36.3% | 63.1 | 65 | 37.4% | 1.9 | 1.1% | 5.56 |
| 16 | Colin Kaepernick | 74 | 8.16 | 34.1% | 25.2 | 26 | 35.1% | 0.8 | 1% | 6.32 |
| 17 | Josh Freeman | 180 | 8.01 | 34.3% | 61.8 | 62 | 34.4% | 0.2 | 0.1% | 6.81 |
| 18 | Philip Rivers | 194 | 8.51 | 35.2% | 68.3 | 68 | 35.1% | -0.3 | -0.2% | 5.81 |
| 19 | Jay Cutler | 160 | 8.37 | 34.9% | 55.8 | 55 | 34.4% | -0.8 | -0.5% | 5.74 |
| 20 | Kevin Kolb | 70 | 9.14 | 33.6% | 23.5 | 23 | 32.9% | -0.5 | -0.7% | 4.27 |
| 21 | Matt Schaub | 161 | 7.9 | 36.3% | 58.5 | 57 | 35.4% | -1.5 | -0.9% | 5.37 |
| 22 | Nick Foles | 87 | 8.48 | 32.6% | 28.4 | 27 | 31% | -1.4 | -1.6% | 6.38 |
| 23 | Robert Griffin III | 126 | 8.52 | 34.3% | 43.2 | 41 | 32.5% | -2.2 | -1.7% | 4.67 |
| 24 | Cam Newton | 160 | 9.03 | 33.1% | 52.9 | 50 | 31.3% | -2.9 | -1.8% | 5.3 |
| 25 | Joe Flacco | 189 | 9.02 | 34.1% | 64.5 | 60 | 31.7% | -4.5 | -2.4% | 5.42 |
| 26 | Carson Palmer | 173 | 8.16 | 34.8% | 60.2 | 56 | 32.4% | -4.2 | -2.4% | 5.58 |
| 27 | Alex Smith | 70 | 7.39 | 35.6% | 24.9 | 23 | 32.9% | -1.9 | -2.8% | 5.26 |
| 28 | Brandon Weeden | 184 | 8.06 | 36% | 66.1 | 61 | 33.2% | -5.1 | -2.8% | 5.55 |
| 29 | Sam Bradford | 195 | 8.21 | 36.2% | 70.6 | 65 | 33.3% | -5.6 | -2.9% | 4.61 |
| 30 | Ryan Tannehill | 173 | 8.53 | 34.9% | 60.4 | 55 | 31.8% | -5.4 | -3.1% | 5.14 |
| 31 | Eli Manning | 172 | 7.72 | 36.9% | 63.5 | 58 | 33.7% | -5.5 | -3.2% | 6.26 |
| 32 | Mark Sanchez | 172 | 7.94 | 37.5% | 64.4 | 54 | 31.4% | -10.4 | -6.1% | 4.2 |
| 33 | Jake Locker | 117 | 8.54 | 34.3% | 40.2 | 31 | 26.5% | -9.2 | -7.9% | 5.05 |
| 34 | Chad Henne | 118 | 8.31 | 35.1% | 41.4 | 32 | 27.1% | -9.4 | -8% | 4.97 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | 170 | 7.61 | 35.3% | 60 | 46 | 27.1% | -14 | -8.2% | 5.23 |
| 36 | Blaine Gabbert | 98 | 8.58 | 34.4% | 33.7 | 22 | 22.4% | -11.7 | -11.9% | 3.74 |
| 37 | John Skelton | 72 | 8.32 | 34.9% | 25.1 | 16 | 22.2% | -9.1 | -12.7% | 3.57 |
| 38 | Ryan Lindley | 67 | 9.31 | 31.5% | 21.1 | 12 | 17.9% | -9.1 | -13.5% | 2.52 |
| 39 | Brady Quinn | 91 | 7.89 | 34.9% | 31.8 | 18 | 19.8% | -13.8 | -15.1% | 3.51 |
There’s probably little predictive data to this, but that doesn’t mean it’s not interesting to examine. [1]For example, in November, Ben Roethlisberger was #2. No quarterback produced fewer first downs relative to expectation than Andy Dalton (-14.0). Matthew Stafford, who is quickly becoming a very polarizing quarterback, slotted between Manning and Tom Brady in first downs above expectation. Tony Romo, another quarterback/Bullseye, was pretty “clutch” on third downs, too.
As for last year’s rookies, Griffin lagged way behind Andrew Luck in this metric (Russell Wilson, of course, continues to be the man). If you’re looking for a criticism of Griffin’s game, it may be that he struggles to beat the defense in obvious passing situations. According to Football Outsiders, Washington’s offense ranked 1st in DVOA on play-action plays, but below league average on all other pass plays. You know that when we’ve gone from “he threw 5 interceptions in a game, no big deal, he’s a rookie” to “you know that rookie star was a slightly below-average passer on non-play action pass plays,” that we’re picking nits. But hey, it’s July.
Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams
References
| ↑1 | For example, in November, Ben Roethlisberger was #2. |
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