In 2012 and 2013, I looked at which passers were most effective on third and fourth downs; today, we examine those numbers for 2014. Throughout this article, when I refer to “third downs” or “third down performance”, note that such language is just shorthand for third and fourth downs.

To grade third down performance, I included sacks but discarded rushing data (in the interest of time, not because I thought that to be the better approach). The first step in evaluating third down performance is to calculate the league average conversion rate on third downs for each distance. Here were the conversion rates in 2014, along with the smoothed (linear) best-fit rates:

Once we know the expected conversion rate for each distance, it’s easy to grade the quarterbacks. ^[1]Note that I have discarded all third down attempts where the distance to go was greater than 20 yards. The next table is a bit complicated, so let me just walk you through the best third down quarterback in the league last year. Tony Romo had 141 third down passing plays (either pass attempts or sacks); the average distance “to go” on those plays was 7.0 yards, and the expected conversion rate (based on the smoothed rates in the table above for each play) was 39.8%; that means Romo would be expected, if he was an average quarterback, to convert 56.1 first downs. In reality, he converted 70 first downs, a 49.6% conversion rate. This means, despite being a choker, Romo produced 13.9 more first downs than expected, the best in the NFL (and the category by which the table is sorted). He also had a 1st down rate over expectation of 9.8%, the second-highest behind Carson Palmer’s injury-shortened season. On third downs, Romo averaged 6.82 Net Yards per Attempt and 7.74 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

• The players with the lowest expectation third down rates are those quarterbacks whose third down pass attempts were disproportionately coming on third and longs. So it’s not surprising that the three lowest expected rates came from the quarterbacks on Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. The 4th lowest expected rate, however, came from Russell Wilson. That’s more of a reflection of Seattle’s tendency to run (or Wilson to scramble, perhaps) on third and short. Wilson had just 20 throws on 3rd and less than 4 yards (he converted 11); as a point of comparison, Matt Ryan had 43.

• The highest expected rates come from quarterbacks who often threw on 3rd and short; among regulars, you won’t be too surprised to see Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Andrew Luck at the top of that list.

• At the risk of igniting a Manning/Brady debate, the numbers here are interesting. Manning averaged 7.15 NY/A and 8.24 ANY/A on third downs, both excellent numbers. Brady was a little worse, at 6.33 NY/A and 6.74 ANY/A. But Brady converted 1 more first down despite having 11 fewer opportunities. Brady’s third down rate was excellent, while Manning’s was merely very good. Manning had 11 conversions go for at least 30 yards, compared to just 3 for Brady. Neither ANY/A nor 3rd down conversion rates tell the story — getting the first down is key, but it’s also better to gain more yards than less, so a 30-yard pass on 3rd-and-5 is better than a 6-yard one. As usual, pick your flavor here.

• Colin Kaepernick had a bad year, right? Well, not so much on third downs, where he was one of the most productive players in the league.

• The three Washington quarterbacks all managed to produce putrid numbers on third downs. That gives us another explanation for how the team was so bad, yet ranked 4th in yards per pass attempt.

With three years of data, let’s look at the 22 quarterbacks who have had at least 70 third down attempts in each year since 2012. The table below shows each quarterback’s 1st Down Rate Over Expectation for the three years. ^[2]Note that in 2013, I was lazy and used the 2012 rates, which may explain why quarterbacks looked slightly better, on average, in 2013 than they did in 2012 or 2014. In reality, third down rates were … Continue reading You won’t be too surprised to see which quarterbacks top the list:

• I’m not nearly the Ryan Tannehill lover that some out there seem to be, and these numbers cast the Dolphins passer in a poor light. Tannehill’s good enough to be a regular starting quarterback, but has yet to show much evidence that he’s an above-average starter.

• The correlation coefficient between these rates in 2013 and 2014 was just 0.08, indicating that there’s quite a bit of luck involved here (as is often the case with small sample sizes). It was only slightly higher, at 0.17, from 2012 to 2013. Andy Dalton went from -8.2% to 5% from 2012 to 2013, before settling in at a closer-to-average 1.2% last year. Tony Romo was at 7.2%, then 0%, and then 9.8%. In other words, there’s a lot of variation here (unless you’re Drew Brees or Joe Flacco, another player who has been really unproductive on third downs with some notable exceptions).