The 2005 Bears were a work of art. Coached by Lovie Smith, with Ron Turner (OC) and Ron Rivera (DC) at his side, the Bears clinched the NFC North with an 11-4 record in week 16. The Bears did this despite having one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL: at the time, Chicago ranked 31st in passer rating, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, only eclipsing the 49ers in all three categories. Therefore, it’s fair to say that the team’s success was overwhelmingly due to a dominant defense and a solid running game powered by Thomas Jones (the special teams were not particularly good, either).
In fact, by one measure, the 2005 Bears got more out of bad QB play than any other team since 1970. How did I measure that?
1) Calculate each team’s winning percentage in each season. At 11-5 (which includes a loss in the regular season finale where the team benched its starters), the Bears had a 0.688 winning percentage; among all teams since 1970, that’s about 1 standard deviation better than average (technically +0.97 standard deviations, or the team’s Z-Score in winning percentage.)
2) Calculate each team’s Relative ANY/A in each season. Chicago averaged just 3.45 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2005, which was far below the league average of 5.35 that season. Therefore, the 2005 Bears have a Relative ANY/A of -1.90, which is 1.64 standard deviations below average since the merger. This gives Chicago a Z-Score of -1.64 in passing efficiency.
3) Subtract the results from step 2 (-1.64) from the result in step 1 (+0.97). For the ’05 Bears, this results in +2.61, which is a measure of how much the team overachieved relative to its passing efficiency.
That’s the best result of any team since 1970. The second-best result also belongs to a Bears team. In 1986, Chicago went 14-2, which gave them a 0.875 winning percentage and a +1.94 Z-Score. Meanwhile, the passing offense was 0.59 standard deviations below average, as the offense split time between Mike Tomczak and Jim McMahon. That results in a score of +2.54. That Bears team had a dominant defense, but some teams are high up on this list thanks to a dominant running game. The #3 team is the ’73 Bills, which was powered by O.J. Simpson (and the Electric Company) and his record 2,000-yard season. The table below shows all teams to have a score of at least +1.00 by this metric. For each team, I have also listed their top QB and their top player by AV.
The table is fully sortable and searchable, so if you want to type in “NYJ”, you can see that 3 of Rex Ryan’s Jets teams have a score of +1.20 or higher. You can also sort by year, and see that the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers from 2019 all make the list.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
