On Tuesday, I looked at which receivers produced the most Adjusted Catch Yards over the baseline of worst starter. Yesterday, I used that data to help identify which receivers produced their numbers in the most pass-happy offenses. Today, instead of measuring wide receivers by how often their teams passed, I want to measure them by how well they passed.
Some teams are very efficient at passing because they have great wide receivers: to be clear, today’s post doesn’t prove anything about which way the causation arrow runs. But I do think it’s worth quantifying the reality that receivers produce their numbers in very disparte environments. Let’s use Joey Galloway as an example. Galloway, longtime readers will recall, was a favorite of an early iteration of Doug Drinen’s attempts at ranking wide receivers. For similar reasons, Galloway comes out “very good” in this system, if good means producing numbers while playing for bad passing offenses (a proxy, one could argue, for playing with bad quarterbacks).
Galloway produced 2,071 Adjusted Catch Yards above the baseline in his career, good for an unremarkable 84th place on Tuesday’s list. But let’s look at the 8 seasons that get Galloway there:
- In 2005, Galloway produced 1,902 ACY, which was 600 ACY above the baseline. That represents 29% of Galloway’s career ACY above the baseline grade. And that year — at age 34, mind you — Galloway played for the Bucs. Chris Simms was the quarterback, and Tampa Bay averaged 0.42 Adjusted Net Yards per Attemp below league average (a metric known as the team’s Relative ANY/A). So, when thinking about Galloway’s career, we assign 29% of his career team pass efficiency a grade of -0.42.
- In 1997, Galloway produced 1,649 ACY, 396 ACY above the baseline. That’s 19% of Galloway’s career 2,071 ACY above the baseline, and it came while playing with a 41-year-old Warren Moon in Seattle. The Seahawks had a RANY/A of +0.32 that season, so 19% of Galloway’s career RANY/A grade is +0.32.
- In 1998, Galloway produced 1,572 ACY, 292 ACY above the baseline (14%). He was in Seattle with a then 42-year-old Moon, and the Sahawks had a RANY/A of -0.23.
- In ’95, Galloway had 1,514 ACY, 266 ACY above the baseline (13%). He was playing with Rick Mirer, and the Seahawks had a RANY/A of -1.03.
- In ’06, Galloway had 1,507 ACY, 257 ACY above the baseline (12%). He was playing with Bruce Gradkowski, and Tampa Bay had a RANY/A of -1.39.
- In ’07, Galloway — at age 36(!) — had 1,419 ACY in 15 games, 98 ACY above the baseline (5%). He was playing with 37-year-old Jeff Garcia, and the Bucs had a RANY/A of +0.87.
- In ’96, Galloway had 1,412 ACY, 96 ACY above the baseline (5%). Mirer was still the Sahawks quarterback, and the team had a -0.36 RANY/A.
- Finally, in 2002, Galloawy had 1,333 ACY, or 66 ACY above the baseline (3%). Chad Hutchinson and Quincy Carter split the quarterback duties, and the team had a RANY/A of -1.19.
As a result, Galloway’s teams, over those 8 years, had a weighted-average RANY/A of -0.41. Now, in the abstract, that might not mean too much to you: it seems to imply that Galloway played on some below-average passing teams, but nothing more. But most receivers that produce strong ACY numbers played on good passing teams. Of the 100 receivers we have been examining, Galloway’s -0.41 RANY/A ranks… 99th! Only Lionel Taylor, who plied his trade for the terrible Broncos in the early years of the AFL, has a worse grade. And in fact, just four of those 100 receivers had a weighted RANY/A (using the methodology described above) that was below average! In that regard, Galloway’s ability to stand out while playing for poor passing teams looks pretty remarkable. [1]He’s also one of four players (as of 2013) who had 1,000-yard seasons with 5 different quarterbacks).
Let’s take a look at the 100 players with the most ACY above the baseline in both graph and table form.
And here’s the full data set for the 100 players, sorted by career RANY/A. Here’s how to read the top line, which belongs to former Browns receiver Dante Lavelli (Otto Graham’s other main target, Mac Speedie, is second on the list). Lavelli played from ’46 to ’56, and is in the Hall of Fame. He totaled 2,227 Adjusted Catch Yards above the baseline, good enough for 80th all-time. His Browns teams were not very pass-happy, throwing just (on a weighted-average basis) 90.6% as often as the rest of the league. That ranks just 97th on this list of 100 players as far as pass-happiness. However, his Browns teams had a (weighted average) Relative ANY/A of 4.32, the best of this group of 100 players.
RANY/A Rk | Player | First Yr | Last Year | HOF? | ACY | ACY Rk | Pass-Happy | Pass Happy Rk | RANY/A |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dante Lavelli | 1946 | 1956 | Yes | 2227 | 80 | 90.6% | 97 | 4.32 |
2 | Mac Speedie | 1946 | 1952 | No | 3394 | 34 | 102.3% | 63 | 3.91 |
3 | Elroy Hirsch | 1946 | 1957 | Yes | 2820 | 54 | 107.5% | 37 | 3.32 |
4 | Mark Duper | 1982 | 1992 | No | 1973 | 97 | 106.4% | 41 | 2.46 |
5 | Don Hutson | 1935 | 1945 | Yes | 12112 | 2 | 122.1% | 1 | 2.28 |
6 | Jordy Nelson | 2008 | 2014 | Not El. | 1955 | 100 | 98.6% | 87 | 2.2 |
7 | Mark Clayton | 1983 | 1993 | No | 3196 | 40 | 111% | 20 | 2.1 |
8 | Tom Fears | 1948 | 1956 | Yes | 2677 | 61 | 119.3% | 2 | 2.08 |
9 | Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 2014 | Not El. | 2584 | 66 | 107.1% | 40 | 2.07 |
10 | Warren Wells | 1964 | 1970 | No | 2163 | 83 | 107.8% | 35 | 2.07 |
11 | Lenny Moore | 1956 | 1967 | Yes | 2095 | 90 | 113.8% | 13 | 1.96 |
12 | Wes Chandler | 1978 | 1988 | No | 3155 | 44 | 112.3% | 19 | 1.95 |
13 | Wes Welker | 2004 | 2014 | Not El. | 3703 | 29 | 108.5% | 31 | 1.91 |
14 | Jerry Rice | 1985 | 2004 | Yes | 12123 | 1 | 105.2% | 48 | 1.86 |
15 | Kellen Winslow | 1979 | 1987 | Yes | 2781 | 55 | 118.3% | 3 | 1.84 |
16 | Raymond Berry | 1955 | 1967 | Yes | 3691 | 30 | 114.8% | 7 | 1.81 |
17 | Charley Hennigan | 1960 | 1966 | No | 3230 | 38 | 111% | 21 | 1.77 |
18 | Marvin Harrison | 1996 | 2008 | No | 7229 | 3 | 103% | 58 | 1.76 |
19 | Paul Warfield | 1964 | 1977 | Yes | 2110 | 89 | 87.4% | 100 | 1.73 |
20 | Cliff Branch | 1972 | 1985 | No | 2736 | 57 | 93.1% | 95 | 1.68 |
21 | Mal Kutner | 1946 | 1950 | No | 2011 | 94 | 104.2% | 53 | 1.68 |
22 | Randy Moss | 1998 | 2012 | Not El. | 7021 | 4 | 103% | 57 | 1.59 |
23 | Gene Washington | 1969 | 1979 | No | 2313 | 78 | 102.3% | 64 | 1.58 |
24 | Drew Pearson | 1973 | 1983 | No | 2152 | 85 | 105.5% | 47 | 1.57 |
25 | George Sauer | 1965 | 1970 | No | 2062 | 93 | 109.8% | 25 | 1.57 |
26 | Reggie Wayne | 2001 | 2014 | Not El. | 5092 | 11 | 107.3% | 38 | 1.56 |
27 | Charley Taylor | 1964 | 1977 | Yes | 3326 | 36 | 108.3% | 33 | 1.54 |
28 | Lance Alworth | 1962 | 1972 | Yes | 5629 | 7 | 97% | 91 | 1.48 |
29 | Bob Hayes | 1965 | 1975 | Yes | 2930 | 52 | 99.5% | 81 | 1.45 |
30 | Tommy McDonald | 1957 | 1968 | Yes | 2775 | 56 | 108.9% | 29 | 1.42 |
31 | Otis Taylor | 1965 | 1975 | No | 2592 | 65 | 94.1% | 93 | 1.36 |
32 | Fred Biletnikoff | 1965 | 1978 | Yes | 2922 | 53 | 103.7% | 55 | 1.34 |
33 | Marques Colston | 2006 | 2014 | Not El. | 2374 | 72 | 114.7% | 8 | 1.33 |
34 | Cris Collinsworth | 1981 | 1988 | No | 2206 | 81 | 100% | 78 | 1.27 |
35 | Dwight Clark | 1979 | 1987 | No | 2350 | 75 | 113.5% | 15 | 1.26 |
36 | John Jefferson | 1978 | 1985 | No | 2066 | 92 | 114.5% | 10 | 1.24 |
37 | Terrell Owens | 1996 | 2010 | Not El. | 6226 | 5 | 101.7% | 69 | 1.24 |
38 | Michael Irvin | 1988 | 1999 | Yes | 4720 | 16 | 93.5% | 94 | 1.22 |
39 | Gary Clark | 1985 | 1995 | No | 3476 | 32 | 100.4% | 76 | 1.2 |
40 | Harlon Hill | 1954 | 1962 | No | 2345 | 76 | 101.5% | 71 | 1.13 |
41 | Charlie Joiner | 1969 | 1986 | Yes | 2703 | 60 | 115.5% | 6 | 1.13 |
42 | Antonio Brown | 2010 | 2014 | Not El. | 2189 | 82 | 105.8% | 45 | 1.12 |
43 | Pete Pihos | 1947 | 1955 | Yes | 2651 | 62 | 115.7% | 5 | 1.04 |
44 | Dez Bryant | 2010 | 2014 | Not El. | 2111 | 88 | 102.1% | 65 | 1 |
45 | Rod Smith | 1995 | 2006 | No | 4082 | 25 | 98.8% | 86 | 0.99 |
46 | Stanley Morgan | 1977 | 1990 | No | 1980 | 96 | 97.2% | 90 | 0.99 |
47 | Billy Howton | 1952 | 1963 | No | 3189 | 41 | 114.6% | 9 | 0.98 |
48 | Don Maynard | 1958 | 1973 | Yes | 4863 | 14 | 107.2% | 39 | 0.98 |
49 | John Gilliam | 1967 | 1977 | No | 2728 | 58 | 102.8% | 61 | 0.94 |
50 | Del Shofner | 1957 | 1967 | No | 3220 | 39 | 109.4% | 26 | 0.84 |
51 | John Stallworth | 1974 | 1987 | Yes | 2522 | 69 | 92.9% | 96 | 0.78 |
52 | Roy Green | 1979 | 1992 | No | 2335 | 77 | 105.7% | 46 | 0.77 |
53 | Cris Carter | 1987 | 2002 | Yes | 5148 | 10 | 106.3% | 42 | 0.75 |
54 | Art Monk | 1980 | 1995 | Yes | 2978 | 50 | 100.6% | 74 | 0.74 |
55 | Henry Ellard | 1983 | 1998 | No | 3422 | 33 | 101.6% | 70 | 0.7 |
56 | Buddy Dial | 1959 | 1966 | No | 1957 | 99 | 89.5% | 99 | 0.69 |
57 | Andre Reed | 1985 | 2000 | Yes | 3127 | 46 | 97.3% | 89 | 0.68 |
58 | Jim Benton | 1938 | 1947 | No | 4375 | 19 | 113.5% | 14 | 0.64 |
59 | Harold Carmichael | 1971 | 1984 | No | 2942 | 51 | 114.1% | 12 | 0.62 |
60 | Torry Holt | 1999 | 2009 | No | 6004 | 6 | 114.2% | 11 | 0.6 |
61 | Roddy White | 2005 | 2014 | Not El. | 3775 | 28 | 102.1% | 67 | 0.6 |
62 | Keenan McCardell | 1992 | 2007 | No | 2435 | 71 | 105.1% | 49 | 0.59 |
63 | Gary Garrison | 1966 | 1977 | No | 2629 | 63 | 108.8% | 30 | 0.58 |
64 | Tim Brown | 1988 | 2004 | Yes | 5047 | 12 | 99.1% | 83 | 0.58 |
65 | Tony Gonzalez | 1997 | 2013 | Not El. | 3138 | 45 | 106.3% | 44 | 0.57 |
66 | Jimmy Smith | 1992 | 2005 | No | 4654 | 17 | 99.6% | 80 | 0.55 |
67 | Isaac Bruce | 1994 | 2009 | No | 4877 | 13 | 110.2% | 24 | 0.55 |
68 | Eric Moulds | 1996 | 2007 | No | 2353 | 73 | 102.9% | 59 | 0.52 |
69 | Chad Johnson | 2001 | 2011 | Not El. | 4344 | 20 | 102.1% | 66 | 0.52 |
70 | Bobby Mitchell | 1958 | 1968 | Yes | 3050 | 48 | 110.6% | 23 | 0.49 |
71 | Muhsin Muhammad | 1996 | 2009 | No | 2123 | 86 | 106.3% | 43 | 0.49 |
72 | Derrick Mason | 1997 | 2011 | Not El. | 3040 | 49 | 100.5% | 75 | 0.48 |
73 | Harold Jackson | 1968 | 1983 | No | 3163 | 42 | 99.7% | 79 | 0.48 |
74 | Hines Ward | 1998 | 2011 | Not El. | 3163 | 43 | 97.4% | 88 | 0.46 |
75 | Irving Fryar | 1984 | 2000 | No | 2308 | 79 | 109.4% | 27 | 0.45 |
76 | Herman Moore | 1991 | 2002 | No | 3863 | 27 | 100.2% | 77 | 0.45 |
77 | Steve Smith | 2001 | 2014 | Not El. | 4105 | 24 | 90.1% | 98 | 0.45 |
78 | Donald Driver | 1999 | 2012 | Not El. | 2539 | 68 | 112.6% | 17 | 0.41 |
79 | Drew Hill | 1979 | 1993 | No | 2705 | 59 | 104.8% | 50 | 0.39 |
80 | Andre Johnson | 2003 | 2014 | Not El. | 5239 | 9 | 103.2% | 56 | 0.36 |
81 | Santana Moss | 2001 | 2014 | Not El. | 1989 | 95 | 99.1% | 82 | 0.35 |
82 | Steve Largent | 1976 | 1989 | Yes | 5366 | 8 | 102.9% | 60 | 0.34 |
83 | Billy Wilson | 1951 | 1960 | No | 2597 | 64 | 104.5% | 51 | 0.33 |
84 | Joe Horn | 1996 | 2007 | No | 3110 | 47 | 102.5% | 62 | 0.32 |
85 | Andre Rison | 1989 | 2000 | No | 3260 | 37 | 108.9% | 28 | 0.3 |
86 | Hugh Taylor | 1947 | 1954 | No | 1969 | 98 | 96.6% | 92 | 0.29 |
87 | Keyshawn Johnson | 1996 | 2006 | No | 2121 | 87 | 101.8% | 68 | 0.21 |
88 | Art Powell | 1959 | 1968 | No | 4342 | 21 | 107.7% | 36 | 0.18 |
89 | Brandon Marshall | 2006 | 2014 | Not El. | 4075 | 26 | 98.8% | 85 | 0.16 |
90 | Calvin Johnson | 2007 | 2014 | Not El. | 4721 | 15 | 117.4% | 4 | 0.1 |
91 | James Lofton | 1978 | 1993 | Yes | 4271 | 22 | 100.8% | 73 | 0.05 |
92 | Todd Christensen | 1979 | 1988 | No | 2351 | 74 | 101.1% | 72 | 0.04 |
93 | Carl Pickens | 1992 | 2000 | No | 2154 | 84 | 104.1% | 54 | 0.04 |
94 | Sterling Sharpe | 1988 | 1994 | No | 4216 | 23 | 110.6% | 22 | 0.04 |
95 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2004 | 2014 | Not El. | 4412 | 18 | 113.4% | 16 | 0.03 |
96 | Anquan Boldin | 2003 | 2014 | Not El. | 3356 | 35 | 108.4% | 32 | 0 |
97 | Anthony Miller | 1988 | 1997 | No | 2581 | 67 | 104.3% | 52 | -0.11 |
98 | Mike Quick | 1982 | 1990 | No | 2445 | 70 | 108.1% | 34 | -0.33 |
99 | Joey Galloway | 1995 | 2010 | Not El. | 2071 | 91 | 99.1% | 84 | -0.41 |
100 | Lionel Taylor | 1959 | 1968 | No | 3583 | 31 | 112.4% | 18 | -1 |
If you sort the list by RANY/A in ascending order, you’ll see Galloway there at #99. And while Taylor played on worse passing teams, because Denver was so bad, they passed all the time, and Taylor’s teams ranked 18th in pass-happiness. By contrast, Galloway was on bad passing teams and pass-averse teams. That makes it really hard to put up good numbers. Which is why Galloway may be one of the most underrated receivers in NFL history.
- Lionel Taylor certainly stands out as one of the more unique wide receivers in football history. Doug Drinen claimed that Galloway played with the worst quarterbacks of any receiver since the merger, and the data here — produced many years after Doug’s claim — supports that theory! However, Taylor’s quarerbacks were even worse. For his career, 34% of his yards came from Frank Tripucka, 17% from Mickey Slaughter, 12% from John McCormick, 11% from Jacky Lee, and 7% from George Herring. In 1961, Denver ranked last in the 8-team AFL in ANY/A, while Taylor caught 100 passes and ranked second in the league in receiving yards. In ’63, the Broncos were second-to-last in ANY/A, and Taylor led the league in receptions and ranked 3rd in receiving yards. In ’64, the Broncos were last in ANY/A. Taylor was playing on terrible passing teams, but very pass-happy ones (remember, Tripucka ranked #1 on this list). As a result, it’s hard to really rank Taylor, as he stands out as such a unique case in football history. He was certainly padding his numbers in meaningless blowouts, but he was doing it better than just about any receiver on bad teams has ever done so.
- Galloway’s career is mostly summed up by the words, What If? What if Galloway didn’t missed one and a half seasons in his prime because of a holdout and a knee injury? What if the quarterback who was responsible for more of Galloway’s receiving yards than anyone else wasn’t Quincy Carter? What if Galloway’s first four seasons weren’t split among Rick Mirer and an over-the-hill Warren Moon? What if the Galloway, who ranks 2nd in receiving yards from ages 34 to 36, played in favorable pass environments during his prime years?
- We’re always all about Smitty at Football Perspective, but Steve Smith’s combination of ranking 24th in ACY while his teams ranked 98th in pass-happiness and 77th in RANY/A is truly remarkable. Tim Brown (12th, 83rd, 64th), Brandon Marshall (26th, 85th, 89th), Steve Largent (8th, 60th, 82nd), James Lofton (22nd, 73rd, 91st), Michael Irvin (16th, 94th, 38th), Andre Johnson (9th, 56th, 80th), and Jimmy Smith (17th, 80th, 66th) all stand out as being very high in ACY in light of those other two metrics.
- Jerry Rice ranks 14th in RANY/A. That’s obviously very good, but it doesn’t stand out quite as much as you might think, given the narrative you occasionally hear when folks play devil’s advocate and try to argue that Rice isn’t the greatest receiver ever (or at least since Hutson).
What do you think? What stands out to you on today’s list?
References
↑1 | He’s also one of four players (as of 2013) who had 1,000-yard seasons with 5 different quarterbacks). |
---|