Who Will Lead the NFL in Passing Yards from 2013 to 2022?

by Chase Stuart on August 4, 2013

in History, Passing, Quarterbacks, Statistics

Most of you know that counting stats mean little for quarerbacks, but most of you also know that nothing beats meaningless trivia. Last July, I wondered who would lead the NFL in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021? It took a year, but now the natural follow-up question: Who will lead the NFL in passing yards over the next ten seasons?

Did you know that Joe Montana passed for the most yards in the ’80s? Or that Y.A. Tittle passed for the most yards from ’48 to ’57 (AAFC included) and then ’53 to ’62? The table below shows each leader in passing yards for every ten-year period, along with their age and NFL experience during their first season of that decade.

Years	Pass Yds	Quarterback	Beg Age	Beg Exp.
1932--1941	6749	Arnie Herber	22	3
1933--1942	6625	Sammy Baugh	19	--
1934--1943	8379	Sammy Baugh	20	--
1935--1944	9228	Sammy Baugh	21	--
1936--1945	10897	Sammy Baugh	22	--
1937--1946	12060	Sammy Baugh	23	1
1938--1947	13871	Sammy Baugh	24	2
1939--1948	15617	Sammy Baugh	25	3
1940--1949	17002	Sammy Baugh	26	4
1941--1950	16765	Sammy Baugh	27	5
1942--1951	16633	Sammy Baugh	28	6
1943--1952	17049	Otto Graham	22	--
1944--1953	19771	Otto Graham	23	--
1945--1954	21863	Otto Graham	24	--
1946--1955	23584	Otto Graham	25	1
1947--1956	21750	Otto Graham	26	2
1948--1957	19139	Y.A. Tittle	22	1
1949--1958	19845	Bobby Layne	23	2
1950--1959	20539	Norm Van Brocklin	24	2
1951--1960	20949	Norm Van Brocklin	25	3
1952--1961	19224	Norm Van Brocklin	26	4
1953--1962	19297	Y.A. Tittle	27	6
1954--1963	21491	Johnny Unitas	21	--
1955--1964	24315	Johnny Unitas	22	--
1956--1965	26845	Johnny Unitas	23	1
1957--1966	28095	Johnny Unitas	24	2
1958--1967	28973	Johnny Unitas	25	3
1959--1968	27105	Johnny Unitas	26	4
1960--1969	26548	Johnny Unitas	27	5
1961--1970	28090	Sonny Jurgensen	27	5
1962--1971	26487	Fran Tarkenton	22	2
1963--1972	26543	Fran Tarkenton	23	3
1964--1973	26812	John Hadl	24	3
1965--1974	26437	Fran Tarkenton	25	5
1966--1975	26822	Fran Tarkenton	26	6
1967--1976	27222	Fran Tarkenton	27	7
1968--1977	25868	Fran Tarkenton	28	8
1969--1978	26781	Fran Tarkenton	29	9
1970--1979	23863	Fran Tarkenton	30	10
1971--1980	23397	Jim Hart	27	6
1972--1981	24785	Ken Anderson	23	2
1973--1982	27139	Dan Fouts	22	1
1974--1983	28988	Dan Fouts	23	2
1975--1984	30996	Dan Fouts	24	3
1976--1985	33238	Dan Fouts	25	4
1977--1986	33734	Dan Fouts	26	5
1978--1987	35382	Dan Fouts	27	6
1979--1988	32383	Dan Fouts	28	7
1980--1989	30958	Joe Montana	24	2
1981--1990	33107	Joe Montana	25	3
1982--1991	35386	Dan Marino	21	--
1983--1992	39502	Dan Marino	22	1
1984--1993	38510	Dan Marino	23	2
1985--1994	37879	Dan Marino	24	3
1986--1995	37410	Dan Marino	25	4
1987--1996	35459	Dan Marino	26	5
1988--1997	35994	Dan Marino	27	6
1989--1998	35057	Dan Marino	28	7
1990--1999	33508	Dan Marino	29	8
1991--2000	34706	Brett Favre	22	1
1992--2001	38627	Brett Favre	23	2
1993--2002	39058	Brett Favre	24	3
1994--2003	39116	Brett Favre	25	4
1995--2004	39322	Brett Favre	26	5
1996--2005	38790	Brett Favre	27	6
1997--2006	38776	Brett Favre	28	7
1998--2007	41626	Peyton Manning	22	1
1999--2008	41889	Peyton Manning	23	2
2000--2009	42254	Peyton Manning	24	3
2001--2010	42541	Peyton Manning	25	4
2002--2011	40521	Drew Brees	23	2
2003--2012	42414	Drew Brees	24	3

If you asked this question 80 years ago, Sammy Baugh — who didn’t even enter the NFL until 1937 — would have been the correct answer, as he led the league in passing yards from ’33 to ’42. Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, and Dan Marino also led the league during ten-year periods that began before they were playing professional football. A few non-Hall of Famers show up on the list, with John Hadl, Jim Hart, and Ken Anderson interrupting long periods of Fran Tarkenton-led dominance.

So what can we make of the results? The average running back was just a hair under 22 at the start of his ten year period, but for quarterbacks, the average age was 24.6. Nearly half of all running backs were not yet in the NFL at the start of their ten year run, while the average quarterback had 2.1 years of experience before the start of his run. The median numbers were 24 and two, respectively.

The top passers of the next decade?

Over one-third of all quarterbacks were entering their second or third seasons at the start of the streak. What does that mean for the stretch from 2013 to 2022? Despite having already started four seasons, Matthew Stafford seems like the ideal candidate. I have written a lot about him lately, so I won’t turn this into another Stafford post. But it’s hard not to like his odds considering that he is just 25 years old and has thrown for over 10,000 yards the last two seasons. Matt Ryan (28 in 2013), Joe Flacco (28), and Aaron Rodgers (30) can be ruled out for age reasons, which goes double for all the star quarterbacks older than them. Josh Freeman threw for 4,000 yards last year in his age 24 season, putting him on the right side of the quarterback age curve. Robert Griffin III (23 in 2013), Cam Newton and Andrew Luck (24), Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson (25), and maybe Sam Bradford would seem like the other obvious favorites.

If forced to rank, I would go:

1. Stafford
2. Luck
3. Newton
4. Griffin
5. Wilson

Leave your top-five ranking in the comments. I’ll end today’s post with a fascinating list of all the passing leaders from 2004 to 2012, 2005 to 2012, 2006 to 2012, and so on.

Years	Pass Yds	Quarterback	Beg Age	Beg Exp.
2004--2012	40306	Drew Brees	25	4
2005--2012	37147	Drew Brees	26	5
2006--2012	33571	Drew Brees	27	6
2007--2012	29153	Drew Brees	28	7
2008--2012	24730	Drew Brees	29	8
2009--2012	19661	Drew Brees	30	9
2010--2012	15273	Drew Brees	31	10
2011--2012	10653	Drew Brees	32	11
2012--2012	5177	Drew Brees	33	12

{ 19 comments }