At FanDuel, you start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 defense, with a salary cap of $60,000. The scoring system is pretty standard, with 0.5 points per reception being the most notable feature to keep in mind.

Given that there are just four games this week, predicting the game flow (and subsequent Game Script) of each matchup is a vital part of determining which fantasy players will do the best. My thoughts:

Arizona at Carolina

The Panthers have been hot the last four weeks, although part of that was due to playing poor teams. Fortunately for Carolina, another poor team is on the horizon in Arizona. The Panthers defense should be able to contain Ryan Lindley, making them a strong play. The forecast is for rain in Charlotte, making the matchup even tastier.

Another notable development: Arizona’s run defense has fallen from 5th in yards per carry allowed over the first 11 weeks, to 32nd over the last six. The Cardinals defense allowed 278 rushing yards in four games to Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, which makes Cam Newton a potential threat for a big game today. The downside to Newton: Patrick Peterson shutting down Kelvin Benjamin and the Panthers getting up early could limit Newton’s passing stats. A 16/25, 160 yard day with 50-60 rushing is one possible outcome, and probably more likely than Newton throwing for 300+ yards. If you want play Newton, you’re likely banking on a rushing touchdown.

Jonathan Stewart rushed for 437 yards in the four games leading up to the season finale, but there he picked up just 49 yards on only 13 carries. Then, in week 17, Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert combined for 14 carries. With DeAngelo Williams back, Stewart becomes a risky play. Will the Panthers split the workload? Carolina could be in for a big running day, but Stewart no longer has a high floor in a suddenly crowded Carolina backfield.

On the Arizona side, it’s hard to get too excited about any play other than the Cardinals receivers. Predicting which of Larry Fitzgerald–John Brown–Michael Floyd will go off is a difficult task, but one of them likely has a big day, as Lindley could wind up dropping back 35+ times. Even still, the Panthers pass defense has been very good of late, making it even riskier taking a flyer on any of the Cards receivers. If you’re so inclined, though, Floyd has been the best with Lindley under center, Brown is the deep threat most likely to wind up with a long score, and Fitzgerald is the nostalgia pick (and also the player working in the slot against the worst Panthers corner).

Prediction: Carolina 23, Arizona 13

Ravens at Steelers

The important variable to keep in mind here is the weather: The current forecast: cold, with a 90% chance of rain, and mild-to-moderate wind. All of that may end up sounding worse than it is: for the most part, cold and rain are not that significant, but wind is the real enemy here.

Which is a shame if you’re high on Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown: the duo are normally fantastic, but against the depleted Ravens secondary, both would project to have big games. The same goes for Martavis Bryant, who could take advantage of a defense that will focus on Brown with Le’Veon Bell injured. I would stay away from both Josh Harris and Dri Archer. As with the rest of the passing attack, Heath Miller gets a slight uptick with Bell out.

For Baltimore, Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, and Steve Smith all are high-risk, high-reward options. Do you envision a 16-13 slugfest, or a 34-31 shootout, or something in between? The Ravens offensive line is banged up — both starting tackles (Eugene Monroe and Ricky Wagner) are out, so Justin Forsett is not as enticing play as you might normally think. He had a magnificent season, and probably has a high floor, but I think the best chance for a Ravens win comes courtesy of Flacco and the Smiths.

If you have to pick between the Smiths, which way do you go? Torrey Smith has drawn an incredible 10 defensive pass interference penalties for 204 yards. The breakdown is all over: six have come on third downs, four on second; four have come on passes marked “deep left”, three on “deep right” throws, and three on “short right” passes. As for Smitty? He began the season red hot, with 573 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first six games. Over his next six, he was limited to just 246 yards and 1 touchdowns, but he rebounded a bit in December (25 catches on 40 targets, 246 yards, 1 touchdown)

My thoughts: this is a competitive game, but falls shy of some of the high-upside projections. I see a 24-21 type of game, with perhaps Brown and Smitty being the two stars. I do see the Ravens winning, mostly because of special teams: expect either Sam Koch or Justin Tucker to be a big factor.

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 21

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Sunday is your day of unlistenable quarterback narratives:

• Andy Dalton is the sixth quarterback to start his career with an 0-3 playoff record. Four of the first five, including Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan, won game four; the fifth was Y.A. Tittle, who finished his career with an 0-5 playoff record. On top of the three losses, Dalton has also been really bad in those games: he’s averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt, and has thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. He’s the 102nd best playoff quarterback out of the 105 qualifying passers during the Super Bowl era. A fourth loss, combined with subpar numbers, and the takes will be molten hot.

• There is a small corner of the world where backlash against Andrew Luck is appreciated. Luck played poorly in his first playoff game in 2012 (a 24-9 loss in Baltimore); he then dug himself into a huge hole with three interceptions against the Chiefs last year, before leading a remarkable comeback in a classic passing duel. But the following week, Luck threw four interceptions against the Patriots. A bad playoff game against the Bengals, and some will argue that Luck has now been bad (or thrown at least 3 INTs) in all four of his playoff games.

• The Lions are a league-worst 3-53 on the road against winning teams since 2001, which is all Matt Stafford’s fault, apparently. None of those wins have come with Stafford under center, so a loss in Dallas will cement that narrative that Stafford can’t beat the good teams.

• You don’t need me to tell you what will happen if Tony Romo loses, right?

I think the Bengals/Colts game could go one of two ways. Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, and Coby Fleener could dominate, the game could resemble the 27-0 beatdown delivered by the Colts against Cincinnati in week 7, or any other previous Dalton playoff game. It would also extend the Marvin Lewis steak of years without a playoff win to twelve. In that case, with A.J. Green doubtful, Mohamed Sanu could be primed for a huge game (or, at least, a double-digit target game).

The other scenario? A throwback to the Lamar Smith/Colts playoff game of twelve years ago. On that day, Smith had 40 carries, which might be the formula for the Bengals and Jeremy Hill. Cincinnati wins coincide with a run-heavy offensive approach: take a look at the Bengals pass/run ratios in wins this year. Hill is your high upside play on the Bengals side of the field, while Luck is primed for a big day regardless of Game Script.

Prediction: Cincinnati 20, Indianapolis 17… or Indianapolis 34, Cincinnati 10. Alright, if forced to choose, I’ll go with Luck in a snoozer.

Detroit at Dallas

The great Dallas rushing attack vs. the great Detroit rush defense. Dez Bryant on one side of the field, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the other. Romo vs. Stafford. DeMarco Murray vs. Joique Bell and Reggie Bush. Ndamukong Suh, DeAndre Levy, and Ezekial Ansah vs. um, Rolando McClain and Orlando Scandrick?

The Lions are probably the more talented team: they certainly have more talent on defense and at wide receiver, while the edges at quarterback, running back, and offensive line go to Dallas. The real question is can the Lions get Stafford/Bush/Bell/Megatron to play to their potential: against a shaky Dallas defense. And while the Cowboys defense has exceeded all expectations this year, but guys like Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, and RG3 have put up big numbers against the Cowboys down the stretch.

Of course, the Lions are famous for failing to live up to their potential. The Cowboys offense, on the other hand, is backed by All-Pros at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, and features three Pro Bowlers on the offensive line. I’d be hesitant to spend big bucks on DeMarco Murray ($9,000 on FanDuel), because the Detroit run defense is just too good. On the other hand, Romo and Bryant are probably safe plays. For Detroit, there’s a bit of randomness involved in picking between Bush and Bell or Johnson and Tate, but Stafford does seem like a safe play (to the extent such a sentence ever makes sense).

Here’s the lineup I like in cash games (i.e., double ups or 50/50s):

QB: Andrew Luck ($9,700)
RB: Jeremy Hill ($7,400)
RB: Joique Bell ($6,600)
WR: T.Y. Hilton ($8,600)
WR: Steve Smith ($6,400)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,700)
TE: Coby Fleener ($5,500)
K: Graham Gano ($4,800)
D: Carolina ($5,300)

And for tournaments (where you want to chase upside):

QB: Tony Romo ($8,800)
RB: Jeremy Hill ($7,400)
RB: Jonathan Stewart ($6,500)
WR: Dez Bryant ($9,100)
WR: Steve Smith ($6,400
WR: Martavis Bryant ($5,600)
TE: Greg Olsen ($6,400)
PK: Justin Tucker ($4,700)
D: Steelers ($5,100)