If you were a baseball fan and alive in 1961, you probably remember where you were when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record with his 61st home run of the season.

One of the most memorable sports moments of the ’90s was on September 8th, 1998, when Mark McGwire his hit 62nd home run of the season, breaking Maris’s record.

And there was no shortage of fan fare when Barry Bonds broke McGwire’s record, hitting his 71st home run of the season on October 6th, 2001.

But Ruth, Maris, McGwire, and Bonds aren’t the only players in the last century to hold the single-season home run record.  Because Sammy Sosa was once held the record for most home runs in a season, and he did it without any fanfare at all.  That’s because it happened on September 25th, 1998 in a game between the Cubs and Astros.. Sosa hit his 66th home run of the season that night, breaking McGwire’s record of 65 home runs. Of course, there were still a few games left, and McGwire had just broken the record with his 62nd home run… and his 63rd, and his 64th, and his 65th home runs. And 45 minutes later, in a Cardinals/Expos game, McGwire hit hit 65th home run of the season, and Sosa would never again stand alone as the single-season record holder but for those 45 minutes.

So why the baseball detour today? Because Tom Brady and Drew Brees may re-create the McGwire/Sosa race in a couple of years.  Two years ago, I noted that both Brady and Brees finished the 2015 season tied with 428 career touchdown passes. Now, both players are tied again with 488 career touchdown passes! So who will finish as the career record-holder?

Right now, Peyton Manning is the passing touchdown king with 539 touchdowns, so Brees and Brady need 52 more touchdown passes to set the mark. Brees will pass Manning as the all-time leader in career passing yards with his 1,496th passing yard of the 2018 season, but it is very unlikely that Brees or Brady challenges Manning’s touchdown mark until 2019.

So how did we get here? The graph below shows how many career touchdowns Brady (in dark blue) and Brees (in gold) had after each week of each season since 2001, the year they both threw their first touchdown pass.

And here’s a graph showing Brady touchdowns minus Brees touchdowns by week:

So Brady had a big edge for awhile, but it’s obviously leveled off over the last few years.  But Brady threw 32 touchdowns last season, compared to 23 for Brees, so it seems as though Brady might get to 540 touchdown passes first.  On the other hand, Brees is about a year and a half younger than Brady (Brees was born in January, so he is “old” for his age).  The graph below shows the career touchdown passes by age for each season of their careers:

So it’s easy to envision a scenario where Brady gets to 540, in a record-breaking, stop-the-presses moment.  And maybe Brady gets to 550 first, but at some point, Brees passes Brady.  Maybe Brady passes Brees again, maybe he doesn’t, but when Brees actually passes Brady for the last time (if that happens), it’s possible it will happen with almost nobody noticing at all.