Witnesses to Greatness: Aaron Rodgers Edition

by Chase Stuart on August 30, 2013

in History, Passing, Random Perspective On

Leader in Fu Manchus among active quarterbacks (sorry, Mark).

Let’s be honest: we all know Aaron Rodgers is great, so we don’t spend much time talking about him. Debating his ability is pointless, so we instead spend countless hours discussing Tony Romo’s intangibles, Tim Tebow’s throwing motion, Colin Kaepernick’s tattoos, and Joe Flacco’s eliteness. Talk radio dies when it discusses Aaron Rodgers: debating the Packers quarterback is as fun as watching paint dry and as illuminating as asking if water is wet.

But we’re doing a disservice to us all when we ignore how great Rodgers is. I mean, we spend lots of time chronicling the feats of Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson — why not Rodgers?

One way to measure Rodgers’ greatness is to look at passer rating. Now we know that passer rating is wildly overrated, so perhaps you shouldn’t be too impressed to hear that Rodgers has the highest passer rating in history. But consider: Rodgers has a career 104.9 passer rating, well ahead of Steve Young, who is second at 96.8. Chad Pennington sits at #13 on the career passer rating list (an example of why this metric is one I don’t use), but Young is closer to Pennington (90.1) than he is to Rodgers. But there’s an even better way to show Rodgers’ dominance in this statistic.

Passer rating is made up of four metrics. Let’s take a look at how Rodgers ranks in those four categories:

Completion Percentage

Among active quarterbacks, Rodgers is the career leader in completion percentage (in the next four tables, the age is the player’s age at the end of the 2012 season):

Rank	Player (age)	Cmp%	Years	Teams
1.	Aaron Rodgers (29)	65.7%	2005-2012	gnb
2.	Drew Brees (33)	65.6%	2001-2012	2TM
3.	Peyton Manning (36)	65.2%	1998-2012	2TM
4.	Tony Romo (32)	64.7%	2004-2012	dal
5.	Matt Schaub (31)	64.3%	2004-2012	2TM
6.	Tom Brady (35)	63.7%	2000-2012	nwe
7.	Philip Rivers (31)	63.6%	2004-2012	sdg
8.	Ben Roethlisberger (30)	63.1%	2004-2012	pit
9.	Matt Ryan (27)	62.7%	2008-2012	atl
10.	Carson Palmer (33)	62.5%	2004-2012	2TM

Interception Rate

Rodgers is also the active leader in interception percentage, and it’s not particularly close.

Rank	Player (age)	Int%	Years	Teams
1.	Aaron Rodgers (29)	1.7%	2005-2012	gnb
2.	Tom Brady (35)	2.1%	2000-2012	nwe
3.	Joe Flacco (27)	2.2%	2008-2012	rav
4.	Sam Bradford (25)	2.3%	2010-2012	ram
	Matt Ryan (27)	2.3%	2008-2012	atl
6.	Jason Campbell (31)	2.4%	2006-2012	3TM
	Shaun Hill (32)	2.4%	2005-2012	3TM
8.	Matt Schaub (31)	2.5%	2004-2012	2TM
9.	Kyle Orton (30)	2.6%	2005-2012	4TM
	Philip Rivers (31)	2.6%	2004-2012	sdg

Rodgers is also the career leader in interception rate among all quarterbacks in football history.

Touchdown Percentage

What about touchdown rates? Rodgers has an death grip on the top spot in this statistic, too.

Rank	Player (age)	TD%	Years	Teams
1.	Aaron Rodgers (29)	6.4%	2005-2012	gnb
2.	Tom Brady (35)	5.6%	2000-2012	nwe
	Peyton Manning (36)	5.6%	1998-2012	2TM
4.	Tony Romo (32)	5.5%	2004-2012	dal
5.	Philip Rivers (31)	5.3%	2004-2012	sdg
	Drew Brees (33)	5.3%	2001-2012	2TM
7.	Ben Roethlisberger (30)	5.1%	2004-2012	pit
8.	Matt Ryan (27)	4.8%	2008-2012	atl
9.	Eli Manning (31)	4.7%	2004-2012	nyg
10.	Jay Cutler (29)	4.6%	2006-2012	2TM
	Carson Palmer (33)	4.6%	2004-2012	2TM

Rodgers just barely makes the top ten on the career list of touchdowns per pass attempt, but everyone ahead of him started their career before 1960.

Yards per Attempt

The fourth and most useful metric involved in calculating passer rating is yards per attempt. Guess who ranks first in this category among active passers?

Rank	Player (age)	Y/A	Years	Teams
1.	Aaron Rodgers (29)	8.1	2005-2012	gnb
2.	Tony Romo (32)	7.9	2004-2012	dal
	Ben Roethlisberger (30)	7.9	2004-2012	pit
	Cam Newton (23)	7.9	2011-2012	car
5.	Philip Rivers (31)	7.8	2004-2012	sdg
	Matt Schaub (31)	7.8	2004-2012	2TM
7.	Peyton Manning (36)	7.6	1998-2012	2TM
8.	Tom Brady (35)	7.5	2000-2012	nwe
	Drew Brees (33)	7.5	2001-2012	2TM
10.	Jay Cutler (29)	7.2	2006-2012	2TM
	Matt Ryan (27)	7.2	2008-2012	atl
	Carson Palmer (33)	7.2	2004-2012	2TM
13.	Joe Flacco (27)	7.1	2008-2012	rav
	Eli Manning (31)	7.1	2004-2012	nyg
15.	Michael Vick (32)	7.0	2001-2012	2TM

On the career list, only Otto Graham (thanks to his AAFC numbers), Sid Luckman, and Norm Van Brocklin rank ahead of Rodgers.

So yeah, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. However, let’s call a spade a spade: we have stacked the deck in Rodgers’ favor by looking at career rate statistics. In addition to climbing the career lists because he’s operating in a passer-friendly era, Rodgers has three other advantages working in his favor relative to even his contemporaries:

He didn’t start his first game until he turned 25 years old; comparing his career rate numbers to quarterbacks who played when they were in their early twenties — and on the far left side of this curve — is a bit unfair.
Rodgers doesn’t turn 30 until December, so his career rate statistics exclude the far right side of the curve, too. Nearly Rodgers’ entire career has existed in the sweet spot on the quarterback age curve, from age 25 to 29.
There’s an important metric that is ignored by every stat we’ve mentioned so far: sack rate. And as we all know, that’s been his Kryptonite to date: Rodgers has the seventh-worst career sack rate of any active quarterback, ahead of only David Carr, Charlie Batch, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, and Tarvaris Jackson. If he had started at a younger age, he’d likely have an even worse career sack rate. As it stands, Rodgers has led the league in sacks taken in two of his five seasons as a starter.

Now, here’s the good news: there is a way to control for all four of these variables (era, missing out on early years, missing out on late years, sack rate) and to properly evaluate Rodgers. If we use Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt as our statistic, we solve the last problem. And if we use ANY/A+ — the era-adjusted metric created by Pro-Football-Reference — we solve the first problem. And if we only look at quarterbacks during their ages 25 to 29 years, well, then we’ve solved them all.

So, drumroll please…. where does Rodgers rank in ANY/A+ for all passers since 1970 during his age 25-to-29 seasons? Let’s use a minimum of 50 starts and 1500 pass attempts, too:

”Click

Show

Rk	Player	From	To	Tm	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	SkYds	ANY/A	W	L	T	ANY/A+
1	Peyton Manning	2001	2005	CLT	80	1755	2654	20902	159	72	100	666	7.33	54	26	0	125
2	Joe Montana*	1981	1985	SFO	71	1438	2275	17371	117	58	136	967	6.69	49	22	0	123
3	Aaron Rodgers	2008	2012	GNB	78	1717	2606	21332	170	45	202	1242	7.64	52	26	0	123
4	Dan Fouts*	1976	1980	SDG	63	1181	1968	15200	96	89	131	832	5.85	39	24	0	120
5	Philip Rivers	2006	2010	SDG	80	1547	2425	19513	135	57	137	852	7.34	55	25	0	120
6	Tony Romo	2005	2009	DAL	55	1178	1857	15045	107	55	99	619	7.20	38	17	0	120
7	Troy Aikman*	1991	1995	DAL	72	1323	2021	15279	78	49	109	637	6.57	53	19	0	119
8	Boomer Esiason	1986	1990	CIN	75	1218	2154	17408	120	83	149	1134	6.49	41	34	0	119
9	Dan Marino*	1986	1990	MIA	76	1609	2754	19985	143	92	57	403	6.51	41	35	0	119
10	Drew Brees	2004	2008	TOT	79	1794	2741	20645	139	68	92	660	6.96	45	34	0	118
11	Brett Favre	1994	1998	GNB	80	1698	2759	20273	176	79	167	1045	6.56	57	23	0	118
12	Ken Anderson	1974	1978	CIN	65	959	1685	12567	79	68	160	1208	5.35	38	27	0	114
13	Matt Schaub	2006	2010	TOT	54	1222	1853	14632	78	48	98	658	6.85	25	29	0	114
14	Jim Everett	1988	1992	RAM	80	1477	2554	19024	116	90	143	1013	6.04	35	45	0	112
15	Tom Brady	2002	2006	NWE	80	1631	2648	18715	129	66	141	934	6.24	59	21	0	111
16	Marc Bulger	2002	2006	RAM	60	1357	2106	16233	95	59	165	1246	6.27	36	24	0	111
17	Ben Roethlisberger	2007	2011	PIT	73	1446	2281	18060	113	57	215	1468	6.53	51	22	0	110
18	Mark Brunell	1995	1999	JAX	68	1285	2133	15477	86	52	179	1030	5.98	44	24	0	109
19	Daunte Culpepper	2002	2006	TOT	57	1227	1901	14542	90	60	182	997	6.07	24	33	0	109
20	Joe Ferguson	1975	1979	BUF	67	877	1717	12023	76	72	139	1136	4.94	25	42	0	109
21	Donovan McNabb	2001	2005	PHI	66	1282	2158	15120	105	46	161	996	6.10	47	19	0	109
22	Steve McNair	1998	2002	OTI	73	1289	2142	14991	85	58	131	763	5.86	47	26	0	109
23	Carson Palmer	2004	2008	CIN	65	1380	2165	15630	107	67	108	702	6.18	32	33	0	109
24	Jay Schroeder	1986	1990	TOT	59	791	1592	12225	74	67	113	896	5.74	39	20	0	109
25	Ron Jaworski	1976	1980	TOT	64	839	1621	11141	80	66	154	1166	4.85	39	25	0	108
26	Jim Kelly*	1986	1989	BUF	57	1032	1742	12901	81	63	130	1014	5.70	28	29	0	108
27	Dave Krieg	1983	1987	SEA	66	1111	1924	14464	121	81	192	1569	5.52	42	24	0	107
28	Neil Lomax	1984	1988	CRD	72	1380	2358	17193	103	63	256	1865	5.57	31	40	1	107
29	Scott Mitchell	1993	1997	TOT	62	1144	2008	13968	90	62	127	727	5.74	30	32	0	107
30	Jim Zorn	1978	1982	SEA	68	1171	2078	14618	72	78	155	1179	5.09	30	38	0	107
31	Brian Griese	2000	2004	TOT	53	1089	1689	12174	82	56	127	869	5.74	30	23	0	106
32	Matt Hasselbeck	2000	2004	TOT	52	1045	1746	12425	71	48	137	797	5.78	27	25	0	106
33	Neil O’Donnell	1991	1995	PIT	61	1069	1871	12867	68	39	148	1129	5.62	39	22	0	106
34	John Elway*	1985	1989	DEN	74	1328	2431	16934	95	85	155	1213	5.33	48	25	1	104
35	Jeff George	1992	1996	TOT	56	1115	1893	13064	65	53	139	938	5.43	24	32	0	104
36	Ken O’Brien	1985	1989	NYJ	66	1355	2264	16187	90	61	239	1774	5.38	34	31	1	104
37	Jeff Blake	1995	1999	CIN	57	1084	1915	12980	79	53	152	921	5.44	22	35	0	103
38	Drew Bledsoe	1997	2001	NWE	64	1234	2139	15015	86	65	171	1180	5.47	31	33	0	103
39	Aaron Brooks	2001	2005	NOR	77	1450	2577	17642	111	78	194	1186	5.47	35	42	0	102
40	Bernie Kosar	1988	1992	CLE	61	1099	1844	12632	64	52	158	942	5.31	26	34	1	102
41	Tommy Kramer	1980	1984	MIN	50	976	1741	11759	72	73	104	665	5.01	24	26	0	102
42	Kyle Orton	2007	2011	TOT	54	1094	1836	12663	71	44	102	628	5.92	25	29	0	102
43	Dan Pastorini	1974	1978	OTI	62	838	1585	9879	63	71	106	990	4.11	38	24	0	102
44	Steve Bartkowski	1977	1981	ATL	66	1009	1881	13163	93	90	179	1542	4.58	36	30	0	101
45	Eli Manning	2006	2010	NYG	80	1543	2578	17841	126	87	125	910	5.75	48	32	0	101
46	Richard Todd	1978	1982	NYJ	61	927	1678	12030	78	83	135	1100	4.83	30	30	1	101
47	Randall Cunningham	1988	1992	PHI	64	1096	1945	13468	94	55	213	1669	5.19	42	22	0	100
48	Jay Cutler	2008	2012	TOT	72	1418	2351	16818	107	81	159	1034	5.69	42	30	0	99
49	Jason Campbell	2006	2010	TOT	64	1196	1966	13247	68	46	142	924	5.51	27	37	0	98
50	Matt Cassel	2007	2011	TOT	54	1024	1735	11484	74	44	137	764	5.46	28	26	0	97
51	Kerry Collins	1997	2001	TOT	63	1198	2162	14029	72	76	138	952	4.82	29	34	0	95
52	Kordell Stewart	1997	2001	PIT	71	1065	1904	12013	63	64	134	819	4.70	43	27	0	94
53	Jake Plummer	1999	2003	TOT	68	1248	2213	13864	73	86	128	828	4.54	27	41	0	91
54	Joey Harrington	2003	2007	TOT	64	1209	2109	12399	67	69	116	695	4.47	23	41	0	88
55	Vinny Testaverde	1988	1992	TAM	68	1055	1995	13739	72	106	179	1409	4.14	24	44	0	87