Gary Kubiak doesn’t have a personality like a Ryan or a Harbaugh. He hasn’t been profiled to death like Andy Reid or Norv Turner. He doesn’t have the rings of Mike Tomlin or Bill Belichick. If not for the simple fact that he’s been in Houston forever, I’m not sure if most NFL fans could even name the head coach of the Texans. But his coaching career has been a fascinating one that leaves me with more questions than answers.

In January 2011, I wrote that Kubiak and Jack Del Rio were given incredibly long leashes in the AFC South. From 1970 to 2010, only four head coaches had (a) finished with a .500 or worse record in four out of five seasons with the same team, (b) finished with a .500 or worse record in the fifth season, and (c) were retained to coach for a sixth season. The four head coaches — Marvin Lewis, Dan Reeves, Bart Starr, and John McKay — all had extenuating circumstances for their failures, which differentiated them from Del Rio and Kubiak, who were about to become the fifth and sixth such coaches.

Things have changed dramatically in 22 months. The Jaguars have changed owners, head coaches, and quarterbacks, and likely will have a new general manager soon, too. Meanwhile, the Texans still have the same four men — Bob McNair, Rick Smith, Kubiak and Matt Schaub — in the four most prominent roles in the organization. Houston’s one big move, hiring Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, has worked perfectly. Phillips has turned a dreadful Houston defense into one of the best units in the league.

The outlook is so promising in Houston that it’s easy to forget where things stood less than two years ago. Following a loss to the Tim Tebow-led Broncos — this was the year before Tebow-mania took the NFL by storm — most of the football world assumed the firing of Kubiak was a fait accompli. John McClain, a veteran writer in Houston for over 30 years, tweeted: “After the way the Texans blew Denver game leading 17-0 at halftime and 23-10 in the 4th quarter, I’ll be stunned if the staff isn’t fired.” McLain was so disgusted that he added, “I’ll say it again: The Texans have the worst pass defense in the history of football at any level since the beginning of time.”
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For the second straight season, the game of the year took place in Tuscaloosa. A week after Alabama eeked out a victory over LSU, and 53 weeks after Alabama loss to LSU in last year’s “Game of the Century”, Johnny Manziel produced one of the performances of the season in leading Texas A&M to an incredible upset victory. I have been a believer in the Aggies — they ranked 4th in my SRS ratings last week and remain there this week — but make no mistake, this was still an incredible upset. For a true freshman, on the road, against a Nick Saban defense, to go 24/31 for 253 yards and 2 TDs and to run 18 times for 92 yards is outstanding.

For now, the upset means we’re likely headed towards an SEC-free national championship game. This will anger some in the South, so I’ll take this time to remind you that the SEC’s record this year against the other BCS conferences is an incredibly dominant 4-5. Yes, the SEC has a losing record against the other top conferences in college football in 2011.

The bottom of the SEC has struggled considerably both in and out of conference — Auburn lost to Clemson, Vanderbilt to Northwestern, Kentucky to Louisville (and also to Western Kentucky), Ole Miss to Texas, and Arkansas to Rutgers (and also Louisiana-Lafayette). The positive side of the ledger isn’t all that impressive, unfortunately. Sure, Tennessee beat N.C. State, which would be impressive if not for the fact that the Wolfpack are 68th in the SRS. Yes, LSU beat Washington at home, but it’s LSU against the 8th best team in the Pac-12. Missouri over Arizona State and Alabama over Michigan are basically the two nonconference games the SEC can hang its hat on.

If Oregon wins out, they seem assured of getting one of the two golden tickets to Miami. Who will get the other? Obviously an undefeated Kansas State or Notre Dame would take one of the other spots. For now, K-State is ahead in the polls and the BCS standings, and gets the benefit of playing a streaking Texas team after the Fighting Irish have hung up their cleats for the year. According to the BCS Guru, Notre Dame is the clear third wheel.

But what if both Kansas State and Notre Dame lose? At that point, a one-loss SEC Champ — presumably Alabama — likely rises to number two. To that end, Alabama’s biggest friend right now is Lane Kiffin, who could knock off both Oregon and Notre Dame if USC wins out, setting up a Kansas State-Alabama title game.

And with that, a look college football’s SRS ratings after 11 weeks:
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The game of the day is in Tuscaloosa, as the #4 team in the SRS tries to ruin the perfect season of the best team in the country. Here’s a look at the weekly results for Alabama and Texas A&M, sorted from highest to lowest SRS score:

Date	Team	PF	Opp	PA	H/R	W/L	Diff	MOV	SOS	SRS
09-15-2012	Alabama	52	Arkansas	0	Road	Win	52	39.5	42.7	82.2
09-01-2012	Alabama	41	Michigan	14	Arlington TX	Win	27	25.5	51.8	77.3
09-29-2012	Texas A&M	58	Arkansas	10	Home	Win	48	34.5	42.7	77.2
10-13-2012	Alabama	42	Missouri	10	Road	Win	32	29.5	47.3	76.8
09-15-2012	Texas A&M	48	SMU	3	Road	Win	45	36	38.6	74.6
10-27-2012	Alabama	38	Mississippi St	7	Home	Win	31	26	47.7	73.7
11-03-2012	Texas A&M	38	Mississippi St	13	Road	Win	25	26	47.7	73.7
10-20-2012	Alabama	44	Tennessee	13	Road	Win	31	29	44.7	73.7
10-27-2012	Texas A&M	63	Auburn	21	Road	Win	42	34.5	37.6	72.1
09-08-2012	Alabama	35	Western Kentucky	0	Home	Win	35	28	39.8	67.8
11-03-2012	Alabama	21	LSU	17	Road	Win	4	7	57.1	64.1
09-29-2012	Alabama	33	Mississippi	14	Home	Win	19	16	47.1	63.1
09-22-2012	Alabama	40	Florida Atlantic	7	Home	Win	33	27	29.4	56.4
09-08-2012	Texas A&M	17	Florida	20	Home	Loss	-3	-7	61.8	54.8
10-13-2012	Texas A&M	59	Louisiana Tech	57	Shreveport LA	Win	2	7	47.5	54.5
10-06-2012	Texas A&M	30	Mississippi	27	Road	Win	3	7	47.1	54.1
09-22-2012	Texas A&M	70	South Carolina St	14	Home	Win	56	38.5	14.5	53
10-20-2012	Texas A&M	19	LSU	24	Home	Loss	-5	-8	57.1	49.1

Both teams blew out Arkansas in September and then embarrassed Mississippi State the last two weeks. Both Alabama and Texas A&M played their worst games of the year against LSU. The Aggies are a 13.5-point underdog, and it seems absurd to think that college football’s version of what it would look like if the Eagles and Chargers could have a baby could upend the mighty Crimson Tide, but it’s November. That generally means expect the unexpected.

Louisville @ Syracuse

The Cardinals look to keep their dream season alive in what looks to be an easy matchup on paper. Louisville is 9-0 and Syracuse is 4-5, so this should be a gimme, right? Except in Vegas, the line is just Syracuse -1.5. Many college football fans are calling this the oddest line of the week, but fans of the SRS would disagree. The SRS is predictive and doesn’t care about your record; it is intended to tell us how well teams will play in the future, and as a result, often mirrors the point spread in a game. Well, the SRS says Louisville should be favored by just 2.4 points despite the much more impressive record. You can view every college football game score here, which helps explain why Syracuse isn’t the pushover you might expect them to be. Syracuse has lost just one home game this season, a 42-41 game against Northwestern that ended in controversial fashion. Against the other cream of the conference, the Orange lost on the road by 8 against Rutgers and 11 against Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Louisville beat Cincinnati at home by 3, and defeated North Carolina two months ago, but otherwise, doesn’t have any impressive wins on its resume. And it was only three weeks ago that Louisville was trailing in the final two minutes, at home, to South Florida. The Cardinals have played just three road games this season, against teams that are a combined 6-22. I think Vegas has this line appropriately placed; it’s close to a toss-up game, although I’d obviously favor the Cardinals.
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2) Tom Brady, New England Patriots. Until further notice, nobody has more ‘it’ than Tom Brady, who has been overflowing with ‘it’ since his first year as a starter. He’s the only active quarterback with three Super Bowl rings. However, since he has lost two Super Bowls to Eli Manning, I guess Manning has more “it.” So…

1) Eli Manning, New York Giants. If to be the man you have to beat the man, well, Eli Manning is now the man. Nobody has ‘it’ in the 4th quarter quite like Eli, which is when ‘it’ becomes really important.

3) Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos. If ‘it’ was Tapenade, Manning would be first on the list.

4) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers. With two Super Bowl rings, Roethlisberger arguably has more ‘it’ than Manning, but to be fair, Peyton Manning does hold the record for the most 4th quarter comebacks.

5) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints. Despite gaudy numbers, Brees kind of doesn’t have that much ‘it’, in my opinion. But I’m not sure who else could go ahead of him.

6) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers. The last of the quarterbacks with rings, as Rodgers has one of the worst records in history when it comes to 4th quarter comebacks.

7) Tim Tebow, New York Jets. Without question, in possession of more ‘it’ than any quarterback without a Super Bowl ring, and maybe even more than some of the ones who do.

8) Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers. This dude is loaded with ‘it’ and grit and teammates that hit. He went about 20 games without throwing an interception and he nearly completed more than 100% of his passes a couple of weeks ago.

9) Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens. If ‘it’ is Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Ray Rice, Lardarius Webb, and Ed Reed, then Joe Flacco has had ‘it’ in spades for years. Let’s not forget he outplayed Mr. It in the AFC Championship Game last year, a particularly notable feat since both quarterbacks were playing against identical defenses.

10) Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins. It doesn’t matter that his team loses, he has ‘it’ until the first game he struggles in 2013.
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Maybe it was the election, the great weekend of college football, or the fact that I had no cable and barely watched the NFL this weekend, but power rankings this week don’t generate any buzz for me. I only was able to see the two night games this week, which worked out well, as I didn’t miss the rare opportunity to see the Cowboys or Eagles implode on a national stage.

I’ve already said my piece about the Falcons; with their remaining schedule, we should expect 5 or 6 more wins more than 50% of the time. Right now, the odds of them landing on “5” and “6” are almost identical, but that assumes independence; since they might bench players (or suffer injuries), 13 wins still feels like the best projection for them.

Advanced NFL Stats continues to love the Panthers; after their victory over the Redskins, perhaps they’re going to have a second-half surge? The most head-scratching result from Football Outsiders is probably their sixth-place ranking of the Seahawks, just in time for the Jets to visit. If that game doesn’t start the Tim Tebow era, I don’t know what will.

One thing Burke, Schatz, and the SRS Standings agree on is that the Chiefs are the 32nd best team. Sorry, Jason, but even he agrees.

[As always, the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with is in column 3. The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games.]

Team	Rec	Wins	PrvWin	Diff	RemSOS	RemHG	Comment
Atlanta Falcons	8-0	13	13	0	0.445	4	There are nits to pick, but an 8-0 start positions them well to quiet the doubters.
Houston Texans	7-1	13	12	1	0.508	3	Great matchup with the Bears this week, but Houston is going to get the #1 seed either way.
San Francisco 49ers	6-2	12	12	0	0.516	4	At this point, San Francisco seems very likely to get the 2 seed. Will be interesting to see how Harbaugh treats the end of the season.
Chicago Bears	7-1	12	11	1	0.563	4	Dominant defense but they have a brutal remaining schedule. If they lose to the Packers, they may drop from a bye to the 5 seed.
Denver Broncos	5-3	12	11	1	0.359	4	As a matter of principle, projecting a team to finish 7-1 is never advised. But this seems to be a good place to make an exception.
New England Patriots	5-3	11	11	0	0.531	5	Can Aqib Talib make a difference on this defense?
Green Bay Packers	6-3	11	11	0	0.500	3	Streaking Packers head into the bye week on a four-game winning streak.
Pittsburgh Steelers	5-3	11	10	1	0.406	5	I have been a big Ben Roethlisberger fan all season, and will continue to get burned by believing in this team.
New York Giants	6-3	10	11	-1	0.527	3	Even with a difficult schedule, the typical Giants second-half collapse shouldn't cost them much in a watered down NFC East.
Baltimore Ravens	6-2	10	10	0	0.539	4	Nobody wins uglier than the Ravens.
Seattle Seahawks	5-4	9	8	1	0.509	4	Russell Wilson on the road in a playoff game is not going to be pretty, especially when it's at Lambeau or Soldier Field.
Indianapolis Colts	5-3	9	8	1	0.492	3	They are looking at a first round game in Foxboro or Mile High. Think there will be some storylines there?
Miami Dolphins	4-4	9	9	0	0.508	5	The Dolphins have been burned with some ugly fourth quarter performances; they've lost two games in overtime and were tied late in the 4th quarter against the Colts.
Dallas Cowboys	3-5	8	8	0	0.406	5	Even with an easy schedule, the Cowboys have a lot of ground to make up to win the division or beat the Seahawks out for a playoff berth.
Minnesota Vikings	5-4	7	8	-1	0.643	3	Sell. Sell. SELL!
San Diego Chargers	4-4	7	7	0	0.500	4	Wins over the Chiefs should be treated like FCS victories.
Detroit Lions	4-4	7	7	0	0.641	5	The remaining schedule is brutal; the Lions are streaking, but they dug themselves an enormous hole.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-4	7	7	0	0.547	4	Can they be the team to end the Falcons perfect season?
New Orleans Saints	3-5	7	6	1	0.586	4	They'll need a miracle to make the playoffs, but ruining the Falcons perfect season is a decent consolation prize.
Philadelphia Eagles	3-5	6	7	-1	0.445	4	They are the worst team in the NFC, previously unthinkable under Andy Reid.
Washington Redskins	3-6	6	7	-1	0.464	4	The breakout team of 2013.
Arizona Cardinals	4-5	6	7	-1	0.580	3	Did you know the Arizona Cardinals are 11-7 in their last 18 games?
Cincinnati Bengals	3-5	6	7	-1	0.477	4	Is Marvin Lewis ever going to be on a hot seat?
Oakland Raiders	3-5	6	7	-1	0.430	4	Nobody racks up meaningless numbers like Carson Palmer.
New York Jets	3-5	6	6	0	0.430	3	Will Tim Tebow play this week? If not, maybe the Jets can give Greg McElroy some playing time.
St. Louis Rams	3-5	6	6	0	0.508	3	The second half of the season may tell us a lot about the future of Sam Bradford.
Tennessee Titans	3-6	6	6	0	0.500	3	An embarrassing performance against the Bears.
Buffalo Bills	3-5	6	6	0	0.492	5	This has to be the last 8 games of the Chan Gailey era, right?
Carolina Panthers	2-6	6	5	1	0.477	4	With an easy schedule, they should build some momentum for next year.
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-7	4	4	0	0.516	4	Can Blaine Gabbert show over the next 8 weeks that he deserves to be the quarterback of the future?
Cleveland Browns	2-7	4	4	0	0.509	3	Gritty performances against Baltimore but two losses in the standings.
Kansas City Chiefs	1-7	3	4	-1	0.516	4	May be headed for the worst season in franchise history.

So far this season, teams have converted on 37.2% of all pass plays on third or fourth downs. Looking at success rates on these downs helps to identify which quarterbacks are keeping drives alive for their teams and coming through in the most important situations. For example, Peyton Manning leads the league with an impressive 52.6% rate. How impressive is that?

The table below lists the conversion rates for quarterbacks on passing plays (excluding scrambles) on third and fourth downs; the table is sorted by the far right column, which shows how many third downs over average each quarterback converted. This is calculated by subtracting from the number of actual conversions the number of expected conversions (which is 37.2% multiplied by the number of third down plays):

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Are the Bears the best team in the NFL? This week at the New York Times, I profiled the incredible season the Bears are having. If you feel like every few years the Bears come out of nowhere with an incredible defense and a questionable offense, you’re right.

The 2012 Bears stand as the next in a long line of Bears teams that wildly exceeded expectations thanks to a great defense. Chicago ranks second in points allowed and rushing yards allowed, and fifth in net yards per pass allowed. Chicago leads the league in turnovers forced and red zone defense. But this year’s defense is doing things no other Bears defense — or any other N.F.L. defense, for that matter — has ever done.

Chicago has returned seven interceptions for touchdowns in eight games. Before this season, no other team had more than five pick-sixes after eight games, and the Bears are only one interception return for a touchdown away from tying the single-season record, held by the ’98 Seahawks (in the A.F.L. in 1961, the San Diego Chargers returned nine interceptions for touchdowns). But Chicago’s defense hasn’t just been a big-play defense. The Bears have allowed only 10 touchdowns this year, and five of them came in garbage time. Matthew Stafford threw a touchdown with the Lions down by 13 with 36 seconds left, and four other touchdowns came in the second halves of Chicago victories with the Bears already leading by 20-plus points. That means the Bears’ defense has allowed only five meaningful touchdowns while scoring seven of their own. Incredible.

Against the Colts, Chicago forced Andrew Luck into three interceptions and allowed just 7 meaningful points. Against the Rams, Chicago scored 7 points and allowed 6. In Dallas, Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs scored on interceptions, while the defense limited the Cowboys to just 10 meaningful points and intercepted five Tony Romo passes. In Jacksonville, Tillman and Briggs became the first teammates to score on interception returns in consecutive weeks, and the Bears limited Jacksonville to 3 points.

Against Detroit, the Bears forced six fumbles (recovering three) and held the Lions’ high-flying passing attack to a last-second touchdown; half of Detroit’s 12 drives ended in three-and-outs. Against the Panthers, Chicago’s defense was forced to overcome a Bears offense that gained just 61 yards in the first three quarters and held the ball for only 23 minutes 22 seconds in the game; still, Tim Jennings’s defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter proved to be the play of the game.

Chicago’s performances in the first half of the season were apparently just a warm-up act for Week 9 against Tennessee. On Sunday, on the first play from scrimmage, Charles Tillman forced a fumble, giving the Bears the ball in Titans territory. The Bears forced Tennessee to go three-and-out on each of its next two possessions, with the second stalled drive leading to a punt that was blocked and returned for a touchdown. Later in the first quarter, Hester returned a punt to the Titans’ 8-yard-line, setting up a one-play scoring drive. On the Titans’ next drive, Urlacher intercepted Matt Hasselbeck and returned it for a touchdown. On Tennessee’s next play from scrimmage, Tillman stripped Chris Johnson of the ball, giving Chicago possession at the Titans’ 16. Three plays later, Cutler found Brandon Marshall for a 13-yard score. After the first quarter, the Titans had eight drives, and the four that ended in three-and-outs and punts were the good ones.

Tillman ended the day with four forced fumbles; while not an official statistic, Tillman continues to force fumbles at an unprecedented rate for a cornerback. Unofficially, he now holds the modern record for most forced fumbles in a game, and with seven this season, he could easily exceed the record of 10 forced fumbles by Osi Umenyiora (2010) and Dwayne Harper (1993). If not for the monster season J.J. Watt is having for Houston, Tillman would be a leading candidate for defensive player of the year.

Check out the full article for some historical comparisons and some insight from Aaron Schatz.

Sunday morning, I noted that the Falcons had a 2.4% chance of going undefeated and that the team most likely give them their first loss was the Dallas Cowboys. After Atlanta’s victory on Sunday night, they halfway to perfection. This is the first time in franchise history the Falcons have started off 8-0, although star tight end Tony Gonzalez once played on a 9-0 team and Matt Ryan went 8-0 in 2007 at Boston College. After the victory over the Cowboys, what is the current probability that Atlanta goes 16-0?

First, we need to calculate SRS standings. Neil gave us his Weighted SRS Ratings earlier today, but the table below shows the vanilla SRS ratings:

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Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System:

Rk	Team	W	L	Talent	PWAG	Off	Def	SRS	wpa_loc	wpa_veg	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4ot
1	Chicago Bears	7	1	0.658	67.7%	6.0	-6.0	12.0	0.000	0.922	0.802	-0.349	0.458	1.167
2	San Francisco 49ers	6	2	0.605	62.3%	0.3	-11.5	11.7	0.000	1.235	0.088	0.189	0.576	-0.087
3	New England Patriots	5	3	0.553	66.7%	9.6	-1.0	10.7	-0.067	1.408	0.712	0.304	0.368	-1.724
4	Houston Texans	7	1	0.658	64.1%	4.1	-5.6	9.7	0.135	1.648	0.074	0.780	0.254	0.110
5	Denver Broncos	5	3	0.553	50.1%	6.0	-3.3	9.3	0.000	0.213	-0.398	-0.604	0.208	1.581
6	New York Giants	6	3	0.575	60.4%	7.8	-0.6	8.4	0.067	0.528	0.252	0.450	-0.207	0.410
7	Green Bay Packers	6	3	0.575	66.0%	6.6	-0.6	7.2	0.067	1.431	0.756	0.011	-0.463	-0.302
8	Atlanta Falcons	8	0	0.711	75.4%	3.8	-3.2	7.1	0.000	0.688	0.735	0.484	0.418	1.675
9	Seattle Seahawks	5	4	0.525	50.1%	-1.2	-6.1	4.9	-0.067	-0.292	0.770	-0.424	0.151	0.362
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4	0.500	48.4%	4.3	0.6	3.7	0.000	-0.554	0.831	-0.220	1.095	-1.153
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	3	0.553	63.6%	-1.8	-4.0	2.2	-0.135	0.625	0.248	0.246	0.007	0.010
12	Dallas Cowboys	3	5	0.447	42.7%	-1.5	-3.6	2.1	-0.135	0.160	-0.322	-0.575	0.531	-0.658
13	Carolina Panthers	2	6	0.395	31.6%	-2.6	-3.8	1.2	0.000	-0.439	-0.766	0.803	0.153	-1.751
14	Miami Dolphins	4	4	0.500	46.8%	-2.4	-3.4	1.0	-0.135	-0.371	0.158	1.201	0.945	-1.799
15	Detroit Lions	4	4	0.500	49.6%	2.8	2.0	0.8	-0.135	0.335	-0.426	-0.728	-0.481	1.435
16	Baltimore Ravens	6	2	0.605	68.0%	1.4	1.5	-0.1	0.000	0.678	-0.117	0.429	-0.037	1.047
17	New Orleans Saints	3	5	0.447	53.8%	4.4	5.3	-0.9	0.000	0.425	-0.152	-0.350	-0.078	-0.846
18	Minnesota Vikings	5	4	0.525	44.9%	-0.1	0.9	-1.1	0.067	0.238	0.301	-0.344	-0.283	0.520
19	Washington Redskins	3	6	0.425	37.7%	1.8	3.0	-1.2	-0.067	-0.410	-0.221	0.328	1.173	-2.303
20	New York Jets	3	5	0.447	48.7%	0.1	1.8	-1.7	0.135	-0.642	-0.396	-0.278	-0.515	0.695
21	San Diego Chargers	4	4	0.500	51.2%	-3.3	-1.4	-1.9	0.000	0.538	0.639	0.274	0.319	-1.771
22	Arizona Cardinals	4	5	0.475	44.0%	-5.7	-3.2	-2.5	0.067	-0.935	-0.356	-0.125	-0.356	1.205
23	St Louis Rams	3	5	0.447	38.0%	-4.2	-1.4	-2.8	0.067	-1.223	-0.124	0.027	-0.295	0.548
24	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5	0.447	41.3%	1.2	6.3	-5.1	0.000	-0.044	0.659	0.152	-1.164	-0.604
25	Philadelphia Eagles	3	5	0.447	47.5%	-6.1	-0.6	-5.5	0.000	0.452	-1.300	-0.586	0.675	-0.241
26	Indianapolis Colts	5	3	0.553	51.3%	-4.1	1.7	-5.8	0.135	-0.812	0.623	-0.797	0.339	1.512
27	Cleveland Browns	2	7	0.375	31.5%	-6.8	0.4	-7.2	0.067	-1.406	-0.514	-0.701	0.163	-0.109
28	Oakland Raiders	3	5	0.447	45.1%	-0.3	7.3	-7.5	0.000	-0.298	-0.194	0.182	-1.958	1.268
29	Buffalo Bills	3	5	0.447	38.4%	-0.2	8.6	-8.8	-0.135	-0.475	0.191	0.115	0.035	-0.731
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	7	0.342	32.8%	-9.1	2.6	-11.7	0.000	-1.202	-0.242	-0.449	-0.187	-0.921
31	Tennessee Titans	3	6	0.425	41.6%	-2.0	10.2	-12.1	0.067	-1.401	-0.979	0.688	-0.705	0.830
32	Kansas City Chiefs	1	7	0.342	36.9%	-8.8	6.3	-15.0	0.000	-1.021	-1.332	-0.132	-1.140	0.626

KEY:
Talent – Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11)
PWAG – Probability of Winning Any Game
Off – Offensive SRS (positive = better)
Def – Defensive SRS (negative = better)
SRS – Simple Rating System (Off + Def)
wpa_loc – Win Probability Added from location of games
wpa_veg – Win Probability Added from Vegas lines
wpa_1st – Win Probability Added in 1st quarter
wpa_2nd – Win Probability Added in 2nd quarter
wpa_3rd – Win Probability Added in 3rd quarter
wpa_4ot – Win Probability Added in 4th qtr/overtime

The game is won in the trenches, I know.

As we hit the halfway mark of the season, some teams are already thinking about next year, and in particular, the 2013 draft. If I was in charge of a bad team, and specifically, a bad passing team, I would try to avoid spending a lot of money or a high first round pick on a left tackle. This philosophy is more guideline than rule — if there is a can’t miss prospect there and/or you are underwhelmed with the other top prospects, then draft the tackle — but spending a high pick on an offensive lineman would be my move of last resort.

Let’s pretend for a few minutes that a top-five pick on a left tackle is going to give you Jake Long or Joe Thomas or Jonathan Ogden, and not Jason Smith or Levi Brown or Robert Gallery or Mike Williams. Now, why is having a star left tackle so valuable? The traditional theory goes that since the left tackle is response for protecting the quarterback’s blind side, he’s the most important member of your offensive line. The other corollary is that most star pass rushers play on the defense’s right side (and the offense’s left), amplifying the value of the left tackle.

When it comes to the running game, the left tackle is no more valuable than the right tackle, or (in some systems) any other members of the offensive line, for that matter. To make this a more straightforward analysis, let’s just stick to the passing game, even though obviously most elite left tackles are also very good at run blocking, which of course adds value.

On most passing plays, offensive linemen are basically the equivalent of fences, designed to prevent the opposition from getting to the quarterback. How useful is a fence that’s totally impenetrable on the left side but has a human-sized hole on the right? This isn’t just a snarky comment; an offensive line is often only as valuable as its weakest link. Which defense will get to the quarterback first: one facing five average linemen or one facing three average linemen, an All-Pro left tackle and the worst starting right tackle in the league? If you were a defensive coordinator, which group would you rather scheme against? To me, it’s a pretty simple question: you want to attack your opponent’s weakness, and an offensive line, like a fence or a chain, is only as strong as its weakest link.

Let’s put it another way. In what circumstances does an All-Pro left tackle add value over say, the 25th best starting left tackle in the league? I think those circumstances are basically limited to those plays where:

The All-Pro left tackle does his job, and the other four, five or six blockers do their job, and the quarterback makes the right read and an accurate throw, and the receiver makes the catch, and on this particularly play, the player(s) that was (were) blocked by the All-Pro left tackle would have gotten to the quarterback in time to prevent him from throwing and completing said pass had he (they) been blocked by a replacement-level tackle.

If you think there are a lot of ‘ands’ in that sentence, you’re right. If the other lineman don’t do their job, the star left tackle is meaningless. If the quarterback can’t make the right read or is inaccurate, the left tackle that blocks DeMarcus Ware doesn’t help his team (other than an incomplete pass being better than a sack or a rushed throw that turns into an interception). If the receiver drops the ball, the left tackle doesn’t provide any value. And if we’re talking about a player where the left tackle didn’t do anything that a replacement level linemen wouldn’t have done, then our star tackle has added no value, either.
[continue reading…]

There were close calls in Baton Rouge and in South Bend, but all six undefeated teams escaped week 10 without a blemish. Ohio State is now the first team to win 10 games in 2012, although the Buckeyes are not eligible to participate in postseason play. Louisville ran its record to 9-0 yesterday, with winnable games against Syracuse and Connecticut before a season-defining finale in Piscataway on November 29th.

However, the eyes of the country are now focused on Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon, and Alabama. Last weekend, I said there was only a 10% chance that Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame would finish the season undefeated. That was with 13 games left for those teams to win; now those odds are close to 17%. Kansas State has the easiest remaining path, although all three of its remaining opponents have realistic chances of pulling an upset. Oregon has a relatively easy game against Cal this week while Notre Dame shouldn’t have any problem with Boston College.

Alabama has another tough challenge this week in Texas A&M, although it is hard to imagine college football’s most inconsistent team of the last two years winning a close match-up against the country’s most consistent and brutal opponent. If Alabama can defeat the Aggies this weekend, a perfect regular season is all but assured, with the Crimson Tide’s final two games coming against Western Carolina (SRS of 11.6) and Auburn (37.6). The Iron Bowl this year should be more coronation than battle, which leaves just Texas A&M and Georgia — the likely opponent in the SEC Championship Game — as the two remaining hurdles for Alabama to clear.

Here are the week 10 SRS ratings: [continue reading…]

In this post by Neil, he provided a formula to predict each team’s likelihood of winning a game based on the Vegas point spread. With the help of the SRS, we can come up with a projected point spread for each game, and therefore figure out which team is most likely to give the Falcons their first loss.

The table below shows the SRS rating for Atlanta and each of their remaining opponents, along with the projected point spread in the game (based on the difference between the two SRS scores and home field) and the concomitant projected win probability. Note that in the Dallas game, the projected line is Atlanta -8.6, which would yield a 73.2% win probability; since the actual line is Atlanta -4, for the purposes of that game, I will be using the real line and not the projected one.

As you can see, the Falcons are projected to be a favorite in every remaining game, with the Giants game looming as the most difficult challenge. The probability of Atlanta winning each of their remaining 9 games is only 2.4%.

But figuring out which team is most likely to be the first to defeat the Falcons is a trickier question. The Cowboys are the obvious pick, in part because they’re up first and in part because they’re one of the most challenging remaining opponents for the Falcons. What are the odds that the Giants become the first team to knock off the Falcons, like they did to the Patriots in ’07 and the Broncos in ’98? For that to happen, the Giants would need to beat Atlanta (51.4%) plus the Falcons would need to beat Dallas, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and New Orleans twice before their game with New York. The probability of Atlanta winning all of those games is just 10.2%, so there is only a 1-in-20 chance that New York performs its giant-killer act again.

To calculate the odds of the opponent in each week being “the team” to knock off the Falcons, we simply have to perform the same math. Therefore, the table below shows the likelihood of Atlanta first losing (in each week) to each team:

Even though they’re not favored to win the game, since we can’t pick “the field”, the Cowboys are the team most likely to ruin the Falcons’ perfect season. As of today, New Orleans is next with a 20.6% chance thanks to two bites at the apple; meanwhile, the Falcons are more likely to go undefeated than they are to go 14-0 only to have the Lions ruin perfection.

On Sunday, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger will meet for the first time since Manning picked up his second Super Bowl ring. The game will be the 9th such matchup between two teams whose starting quarterbacks have each won multiple Super Bowls as starters.

This is the third straight year where we have such a game on the heels of a 25-year drought. In each of the last two seasons, the Steelers and Patriots have played, with Roethlisberger and Tom Brady starting both games. But prior to 2010, the last NFL matchup between two starting quarterbacks with multiple rings was in 1985, featuring the San Francisco 49ers (Joe Montana) and the Los Angeles Raiders (Jim Plunkett).

But today’s trivia question wants to know: which two quarterbacks starred in the first NFL game between two quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings?

Hat tip to The Jerk from the Footballguys message boards for pointing this out to me.

November 3rd has been circled on the calendars of college football fans for nearly a year. Unfortunately, the two biggest games of the day — Alabama/LSU and Oregon/USC — will compete for the eyeballs of the nation. The Ducks and Trojans kick off at 7PM on the East Coast, with the Crimson Tide stealing our attention one hour later. Making matters worse, the #3 team in the country will be playing in the 8PM time slot, too, as Kansas State hosts Oklahoma State. So with a lot of interesting games this weekend, I thought I’d take a look at my thoughts on each game involving an eligible, undefeated team on Saturday in relation to two key metrics: the SRS ratings and the Vegas lines. I’ll also make heavy use of the Game Scores page, which lists every game from this season for all FBS teams.

Temple at Louisville, 12PM (all times Eastern)

Louisville SRS: 43.7
Temple SRS: 31.5
Projected SRS line: Louisville -15.2
Actual line: Louisville -16.5

Temple had been respectable early this year (minus an ugly home loss to Maryland) but has been miserable the last two weeks, likely driving this line up. The Owls were up 10-0 at halftime being being routed 35-10 by Rutgers at home two weeks ago, and then last week lost by 30 at a terrible Pittsburgh team. Louisville is not great, but they should be able to handle Temple with ease. No thoughts on the point spread, though, which seems right to me.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, 3:30PM

Notre Dame SRS: 63.1
Pittsburgh SRS: 37.5
Projected SRS line: Notre Dame -28.6
Actual line: Notre Dame -16.5

Why is this line the same as Louisville-Temple? The only explanations I can think of are: (1) Pittsburgh just played its best game of the week (SRS score of 57.0) in a win over Temple and (2) Notre Dame hasn’t earned the public’s trust just yet. But with the exception of a squeaker over Purdue in week two, the Fighting Irish have been very good each week. They beat Michigan State by 17 (SRS score of 67.5), Michigan by 7 (58.2), Miami by 38 (73.0), Stanford by 7 (60.8), BYU by 3 (51) and Oklahoma by 17 (82.9). Maybe some of those scores are a little inflated — the Hurricanes have several drops and an injured quarterback, the Stanford game was in overtime, the Oklahoma game was closer than the score — but that’s picking nits, in my opinion. This is a ridiculously good defense playing a Pittsburgh team that scored 20 points in its last road game, which was at Buffalo. The Panthers were horrrrrrrrible with probably more Rs than that the first two weeks of the season, losing to FCS Youngstown State and Cincinnati by a combined 38 points. But even if we threw those games out, the SRS would still say the Fighting Irish should be favored by at least three touchdowns.

The pick: Notre Dame -16.5
[continue reading…]

In Tuesday’s post, I outlined a method of regressing a team’s record to the mean to estimate its “true winning percentage talent” (the trick is to add eleven games of .500 ball to their record, at any point in the season). In the comments, FP reader Dave wondered if we could incorporate last year’s true WPct talent into our talent assessment for this season, so I thought I’d run a quick regression to look at that.

My dataset was simply every game from 2003-2012 (including Monday night’s game). For each game, I recorded:

• Whether the game was a win, loss, or tie for the team in question. Wins got you a “1”, ties a “0.5”, losses a “0”.
• The team’s WPct talent estimate going into the game. So in the first game of the season, that’s (0+5.5)/(0+11)=0.500 for everybody; meanwhile, for an 11-4 team going into the final game of the season, it’s (11+5.5)/(15+11)=0.635.
• The team’s WPct talent estimate from the previous season.

I then set up a logistic regression to predict whether the game was a win or a loss based on the two WPct talent variables, this year and last year:

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-1.7686  -1.1489   0.1616   1.1429   1.7072  

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)    -2.6936     0.1982 -13.589  < 2e-16 ***
currenttalent   4.0297     0.3509  11.485  < 2e-16 ***
prevtalent      1.3571     0.2666   5.091 3.57e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 6712.4  on 4843  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 6508.0  on 4841  degrees of freedom
AIC: 6516.1

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

That means to predict your likelihood of winning any given game, you plug your WPct talent numbers from this season and last season into this formula:

WPct ~ 1 / (1 + EXP(2.693606 - 4.029688*(Current_Talent) - 1.357123*(Prev_Talent)))

It's important to note the size of the coefficients here -- the current WPct talent coefficient is three times as big as that of last season's WPct talent, so it has much more bearing on the prediction.

At any rate, here are the probabilities of winning any given game that this formula implies for this year's teams:

Year	Team	Games	Wins	Current_Talent	Prev_Talent	p(W_any_gm)
2012	atl	7	7	0.694	0.574	70.8%
2012	sfo	8	6	0.605	0.685	66.3%
2012	htx	7	6	0.639	0.574	65.9%
2012	gnb	8	5	0.553	0.759	63.7%
2012	chi	7	6	0.639	0.500	63.6%
2012	rav	7	5	0.583	0.648	63.1%
2012	nyg	8	6	0.605	0.537	61.6%
2012	nwe	8	5	0.553	0.685	61.4%
2012	pit	7	4	0.528	0.648	57.8%
2012	den	7	4	0.528	0.500	52.8%
2012	mia	7	4	0.528	0.426	50.3%
2012	crd	8	4	0.500	0.500	50.0%
2012	det	7	3	0.472	0.574	49.7%
2012	min	8	5	0.553	0.315	49.0%
2012	sea	8	4	0.500	0.463	48.7%
2012	cin	7	3	0.472	0.537	48.5%
2012	nor	7	2	0.417	0.685	47.9%
2012	dal	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	phi	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	rai	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	sdg	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	oti	8	3	0.447	0.537	46.0%
2012	clt	7	4	0.528	0.278	45.3%
2012	nyj	8	3	0.447	0.500	44.7%
2012	buf	7	3	0.472	0.426	44.7%
2012	tam	7	3	0.472	0.352	42.2%
2012	was	8	3	0.447	0.389	41.0%
2012	ram	8	3	0.447	0.278	37.4%
2012	kan	7	1	0.361	0.463	35.2%
2012	cle	8	2	0.395	0.352	34.9%
2012	car	7	1	0.361	0.426	34.1%
2012	jax	7	1	0.361	0.389	32.9%

I’d like to extend my best wishes to everyone dealing with the fallout from Sandy. I’m in my fourth location in five nights, and have lost power in my building for two days, but consider myself one of the lucky ones. This has been a tragedy for many out there, and thoughts and prayers go out to those who have been harmed.

But that won’t stop me from publishing the week 8 power rankings. This week it’s time to vault Atlanta to the top of the heap. I don’t love the Falcons, but it’s hard to see them not winning 13 games this year. So why don’t I love them?

• According to Football Outsiders’ drive stats, Atlanta ranks 8th in yards per drive, 3rd in points per drive (partially because they rank 3rd in starting field position per drive and 5th in fumble rate per drive), and 4th in drive success rate. That’s great; defensively, they’re 11th in yards per drive, 6th in points per drive, and 11th in drive success rate allowed. That’s less impressive but still pretty good. As far as “net” categories go, they are 6th in net yards per drive, 2nd in net points per drive, and 4th in net drive success rate. In other words, they look like an elite team, perhaps the best in the league. Except…
• In Football Outsiders’ Rankings, the Falcons are just 8th. Aaron Schatz sums up why: “First, close wins: four by a touchdown or less. Second, its schedule so far ranks 29th in the NFL. Third, the Falcons have recovered 75 percent of fumbles.” If you ignore SOS — which the drive stats do — Atlanta looks like an elite team. Factor in the fumble luck, and it makes sense why FO does not view the Falcons as a top-five team.
• Brian Burke now has Atlanta as his fifth ranked team; he doesn’t think Atlanta’s schedule has been all that easy. That’s because Denver is his #1 team and his system loves the Panthers and doesn’t think the Raiders are that bad.
• According to the Simple Rating System, the Falcons are just the 7th best team, behind the Texans, Patriots, and Broncos in the AFC and San Francisco, New York, Chicago in the NFC.

Atlanta is a very good team, but probably not the best team in the league. My guess is on a neutral site, they’d be an underdog to at least five teams in the NFL, if not more.

Team	Rec	Wins	PrvWin	Diff	RemSOS	RemHG	Comment
Atlanta Falcons	7-0	13	12	1	0.444	5	With 9 games left and a pretty easy schedule, the Falcons should hit the 13-win mark.
Houston Texans	6-1	12	12	0	0.479	4	Mario Williams comes back to Houston this week. Spoiler: It's not going to be a happy homecoming.
San Francisco 49ers	6-2	12	12	0	0.500	4	Better than the Falcons but 2 games behind them in the loss column and a tougher remaining schedule makes the #1 seed a longshot.
Chicago Bears	6-1	11	11	0	0.549	4	Didn't win over any doubters against the Panthers, but with the streaking Packers, Chicago will 'survive and advance' for as long as they can.
Denver Broncos	4-3	11	11	0	0.382	4	At 3-3, I thought they would go 8-2 the rest of the way. That might have been conservative.
New England Patriots	5-3	11	10	1	0.516	5	Hey, the Patriots are back. New England gets 4 division games in the second half, along with the Jaguars and Colts.
Green Bay Packers	5-3	11	10	1	0.508	4	No reason not to expect a 6-2 finish for this team. Four games left with Detroit and Minnesota don't look so challenging right now.
New York Giants	6-2	11	10	1	0.555	4	The schedule is starting to look easier (Bal, Phi, Cin) and the team keeps banking wins.
Baltimore Ravens	5-2	10	10	0	0.514	4	Baltimore's season will depend on what they do in their 2 games against the Steelers. Two warm-up games with the Browns and Raiders before round one.
Pittsburgh Steelers	4-3	10	9	1	0.451	5	Head to New Jersey to face the Giants in one of the games of the week. I can't seem to quit the Steelers bandwagon, and have them back at 10 wins -- for now.
Miami Dolphins	4-3	9	9	0	0.500	5	I really like this team. Three weeks ago I had them at 8 wins (pats back), and now 9 may be conservative.
Seattle Seahawks	4-4	8	9	-1	0.508	5	Could not afford to lose to the Lions last week. The 49ers, Packers and Bears are going to make the playoffs, so Seattle must finish ahead of the Vikings, Cowboys, Cardinals and Redskins. They'd be looking a lot better at 5-3.
Minnesota Vikings	5-3	8	8	0	0.602	3	The toughest remaining schedule in the NFL means there is no margin for error now for the Vikings.
Dallas Cowboys	3-4	8	8	0	0.472	5	Heartbreaking loss to the Giants but there's still a very good chance the Cowboys make the playoffs and face the Giants in the first round.
Indianapolis Colts	4-3	8	7	1	0.493	4	A wildcard darkhorse? I don't think the Colts are very good -- they're just 29th according to Football Outsiders -- but a win over Miami this weekend puts them in the driver's seat.
Philadelphia Eagles	3-4	7	8	-1	0.458	4	I can't think of anything positive to say about the Eagles right now.
San Diego Chargers	3-4	7	8	-1	0.465	5	I can't think of anything positive to say about the Chargers right now.
Washington Redskins	3-5	7	8	-1	0.469	5	I have to drop Washington in the rankings after last weekend's games. Fortunately, their receivers are comfortable with that.
Arizona Cardinals	4-4	7	7	0	0.578	3	Did you know the Arizona Cardinals are 11-6 in their last 17 games? Oh, and the Cardinals have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals	3-4	7	7	0	0.521	5	With losses to Baltimore, Miami and Pittsburgh on the books, the Bengals are not in good tiebreaker shape. The next two games are against Denver and New York; if they don't win at least one, the season is effectively over.
Detroit Lions	3-4	7	6	1	0.590	5	You know, the NFC is really good, but really only have 5 very good teams. That means even at 3-4 in the NFC, Detroit could make the playoffs, although they have the 2nd toughest remaining schedule.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-4	7	6	1	0.521	4	The same comment applies to Tampa Bay, who can get fat off of games with Oakland, San Diego and Carolina the next three weeks.
Oakland Raiders	3-4	7	6	1	0.424	5	Dominating the Chiefs means they're not as bad as the Chiefs. I think.
New York Jets	3-5	6	7	-1	0.430	3	[Comment Redacted.]
New Orleans Saints	2-5	6	7	-1	0.576	5	A difficult schedule and a terrible defense mean I'm ready to revise my predictions down to 6 wins for the Saints for the first time this season.
St. Louis Rams	3-5	6	7	-1	0.516	3	I don't want to overreact to one game, but man was that ugly.
Tennessee Titans	3-5	6	7	-1	0.508	4	A tough loss to the Colts, but this time wasn't going anywhere, anyway.
Buffalo Bills	3-4	6	6	0	0.507	5	With upcoming games in Houston and Foxboro, the Bills can turn their season around. Or officially turn the clock to 2013.
Carolina Panthers	1-6	5	5	0	0.479	4	One more loss and I have to drop them more, but for now, they stay at 5 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs	1-6	4	5	-1	0.486	4	When the Bills killed the Chiefs in week 2, I thought "man, the Chiefs might be really bad this year." Nostradamus, look out.
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-6	4	4	0	0.493	5	The Jaguars put up a fight against the Packers, but lack the talent to compete with most teams.
Cleveland Browns	2-6	4	4	0	0.523	4	The win over the Chargers says a lot more about San Diego than it does Cleveland.