In 2014, I came up with the Billick Index and the Coryell Index, which provide a simple measure of the degree to which a team is one-sided.
Let’s use the 2015 Broncos as an example. Denver’s offense scored 32 touchdowns this year, while the average offense scored 37.7. As a result, Denver’s offense was 5.7 touchdowns below average. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 29 touchdowns, meaning the Broncos were 8.7 touchdowns below average here. Add those two together, and there were 14.4 fewer offensive touchdowns scored in Denver games than in the average 16 games in 2015.
That would put Denver pretty high on the Billick Index, which measures touchdowns scored at lower rates than average. The strongest Billick Index team was the Rams, who finished in the bottom five in offensive touchdowns scored and whose defense ranked in the top five in touchdowns allowed. There were just 55 touchdowns scored in St. Louis games this season.
But the Rams were not the most extreme team this year. Consider that the Saints allowed more touchdowns to opposing offenses — 57 — than offensive touchdowns scored in Rams games on both sides of the ball!
| Rk | Tm | Off | Def | Off | Def | TD Above Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 48 | 57 | 10.3 | 19.3 | 29.6 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 41 | 46 | 3.3 | 8.3 | 11.6 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 54 | 32 | 16.3 | -5.7 | 10.6 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 40 | 45 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 9.6 |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 51 | 33 | 13.3 | -4.7 | 8.6 |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 40 | 44 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.6 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 46 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| 8.5 | New England Patriots | 50 | 32 | 12.3 | -5.7 | 6.6 |
| 8.5 | Buffalo Bills | 42 | 40 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 6.6 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 35 | 45 | -2.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| 11.5 | Washington Redskins | 39 | 40 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 |
| 11.5 | Miami Dolphins | 35 | 44 | -2.7 | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| 13 | Oakland Raiders | 41 | 37 | 3.3 | -0.7 | 2.6 |
| 14.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 42 | 35 | 4.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| 14.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 34 | 43 | -3.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| 16.5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 49 | 26 | 11.3 | -11.7 | -0.4 |
| 16.5 | Indianapolis Colts | 32 | 43 | -5.7 | 5.3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Chicago Bears | 34 | 40 | -3.7 | 2.3 | -1.4 |
| 20 | New York Jets | 44 | 29 | 6.3 | -8.7 | -2.4 |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 34 | 39 | -3.7 | 1.3 | -2.4 |
| 20 | San Diego Chargers | 34 | 39 | -3.7 | 1.3 | -2.4 |
| 22 | Green Bay Packers | 39 | 33 | 1.3 | -4.7 | -3.4 |
| 23 | Kansas City Chiefs | 39 | 32 | 1.3 | -5.7 | -4.4 |
| 24.5 | Houston Texans | 36 | 34 | -1.7 | -3.7 | -5.4 |
| 24.5 | Cleveland Browns | 25 | 45 | -12.7 | 7.3 | -5.4 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | 29 | 40 | -8.7 | 2.3 | -6.4 |
| 27 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 | 24 | 6.3 | -13.7 | -7.4 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 | 41 | -14.7 | 3.3 | -11.4 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 32 | 31 | -5.7 | -6.7 | -12.4 |
| 30 | Denver Broncos | 32 | 29 | -5.7 | -8.7 | -14.4 |
| 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 35 | -13.7 | -2.7 | -16.4 |
| 32 | St. Louis Rams | 27 | 28 | -10.7 | -9.7 | -20.4 |
St. Louis is your “half-team” of the year without much doubt, at least according to these indexes. A more advanced approach would be to use something like DVOA, and there the results get pretty interesting. New Orleans had an offensive DVOA of 10.5% and a defensive DVOA of 26.10%, which sums to 36.6%. No other team combined to even a positive 20%. Meanwhile, Denver was at -8.8% on offense and -25.8% on defense which sums to -34.6%. The Rams (-15.0%, -10.5%, -25.5%) were the only other team whose units summed to less than -20.0%.
Given the Broncos playoff effort, where the defense largely carried the team, it’s pretty easy to argue that Denver, rather than New Orleans, was the most one-sided team of the year. What do you think?