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2017 Hall of Fame Candidates

On Saturday, the 2017 Hall of Fame class will be announced. As many as 8 will be introduced — and there’s a good chance the class will be that large. Three players — Kenny Easley (senior’s nominee) and Paul Talibue and Jerry Jones (contributor selections) — receive a simple up or down vote. The other 15 finalists are all fighting for 5 spots. Here’s the full list:

2017 Semifinalists and Finalists Table
Rk Ballot
Player Pos From To AP1 PB St CarAV G
1 senior Kenny Easley DB 1981 1987 3 5 7 60 89
2 final LaDainian Tomlinson RB 2001 2011 3 5 10 128 170
3 final Jason Taylor DE 1997 2011 3 6 12 119 233
4 final Terrell Owens WR 1996 2010 5 6 13 119 219
5 final Alan Faneca G 1998 2010 6 9 13 114 206
6 final Kevin Mawae C 1994 2009 3 8 15 109 241
7 final Isaac Bruce WR 1994 2009 0 4 13 102 223
8 final Brian Dawkins DB 1996 2011 4 9 14 101 224
9 final Kurt Warner QB 1998 2009 2 4 8 96 124
10 final John Lynch DB 1993 2007 2 9 12 90 224
11 final Ty Law DB 1995 2009 2 5 11 87 203
12 final Joe Jacoby T 1981 1993 2 4 11 82 170
13 final Terrell Davis RB 1995 2001 3 3 4 72 78
14 final Tony Boselli T 1995 2001 3 5 6 63 91
15 final Morten Andersen K 1982 2007 3 7 16 51 382
16 final Don Coryell coach
17 final Jerry Jones contributor
18 final Paul Tagliabue contributor

What are my thoughts?

Four of these players were on the ballot in 2015. Here’s what I wrote then:

John Lynch: As I wrote last year, Lynch was a nine-time Pro Bowl selection, but four of those came in Denver, and at least the last two were reputation picks. He was a first-team All-Pro choice in only two years, and is not remembered as a historically great safety. He certainly wasn’t Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed, and I don’t think he did enough to elevate him from the large tier of safeties from his era such as Brian Dawkins, Carnell Lake, Steve Atwater, LeRoy Butler, Rodney Harrison, and Darren Sharper. Lynch was a great player — not being Hall of Fame-worthy is hardly a knock — but in my view, his play wasn’t historically great; given that, he wasn’t even great enough for a long enough period of time.

Morten Andersen: I need just eight words: He was not as good as Nick Lowery.

Don Coryell: Five [now seven] years ago, I wrote a lengthy piece on Coryell’s candidacy. Not much has changed in the interim, so I’ll just re-recommend that piece. Actually, one thing has changed: I came up with the Coryell Index, a rating system that Coryell dominated (man, he really should have seen that one coming!) Of course, dominating the Coryell Index is not necessarily a good thing. That said, no self-respecting football fan can be anti-Coryell; of the six names that I quickly dismissed, Coryell is the one that wouldn’t bother me at all if he was selected.

Kurt Warner may actually be the true owner of the title often bestowed upon Joe Namath. I love Warner — what’s not to love about his story? — but among a certain segment of the population, I’m not sure if there is a more overrated quarterback.

It is at this time that I feel contractually obligated to remind you that if someone suggests a player is overrated, and you think “that’s crazy, everyone knows he was awesome”, then there’s a good chance you have forgotten what overrated means.

Warner’s statistics are extremely misleading: after putting them in proper context, they are very similar to Terry Bradshaw’s. Warner’s numbers were inflated by his era, by playing in a dome, by playing soft schedules, by playing with four Hall of Fame caliber teammates on offense alone, and by playing in the top offensive system of his era. Now, let’s be honest: Warner’s raw numbers are incredible. So we can take several layers off the top and his candidacy would still shine through.

Given his excellent play in the postseason, I lean towards voting ‘yes’ on Warner.

What about the other 11?  Kevin Mawae, Isaac Bruce, Ty Law, Joe Jacoby, Terrell Davis, and Tony Boselli were all eligible two years ago, but none of them even made it to the final 15.

When it comes to Davis, Adam Harstad wrote the definitive piece on his candidacy, so you can read that here.

On Mawae, he falls on the low end on Richie’s scale here, and while I loved him as a Jets fan and voted him on my All-Decade team, I’m not sure he really separated himself from other great centers of his era.  Jeff Saturday, Matt Birk, Olin Kreutz, and Tom Nalen stand out as good choices, and I don’t think I’d say Mawae was as good (but it’s close) as the man who replaced him in New York, Nick Mangold.

I don’t have a lot to say about Jacoby other than his resume of 4 Pro Bowls and 2 first-team All-Pros is extremely light. Boselli has the opposite problem: his 5 Pro Bowls and 3 first-team All-Pros in a 5-year stretch was great, but he has little outside of that.  I’d probably keep all three of these offensive linemen outside of my top 5.

Law has an impressive resume: his 2005 season was arguably the best ever when it comes to interceptions, he won three Super Bowls with the Patriots, and had some stellar postseason performances.  He also stuck around for a long time. He probably wasn’t Champ Bailey good and perhaps wasn’t even Ronde Barber good (although they had such different styles, comparing them is tough), but both of those guys are Hall of Famers to me.  I’d vote for Law, and this is as good of a year as any.

Bruce is a tough one: he didn’t fare super well in my career rankings list, or on this list of gray ink.  Given the presence of Owens — who has a much easier resume to defend (you can click on those same links to see why) — I would leave him out for now.

So I’d vote yes for Warner, Law, and (spoiler) Owens.  What about the other four first-time or second-time options? Well, Tomlinson is a lock, and we don’t need to spend any time on him.  That leaves only one spot left for Taylor, Faneca, and Dawkins.

Faneca’s game was hard to criticize: 9 pro bowls and 6 first-team AP All-Pros is stellar. On the other hand, it’s hard for a guard to make the Hall of Fame. He was my clear choice for All-Pro guard of the ’00s, and Will Shields made the HOF (after three years as a finalist) in 2015 with 12 Pro Bowls and 2 first-team AP All-Pros. Steve Hutchinson will be eligible next year, and I think the committee may want to get Faneca in before that. Faneca was a finalist last year, in his first year of eligibility: I suspect this is his time.

That would leave Dawkins and Taylor on the outside looking in. Dawkins may split the ballot with Lynch a bit, but here’s the real issue: Ed Reed is up in two years, and Troy Polamalu in three. I think Dawkins was the best safety in the NFL in ’01 and ’02, and he’s a very close call in my opinion. Given the choice between Faneca and Dawkins, the fact that Hutchinson is up next year and Reed in two years may break the tie in favor of selecting Faneca. Looking at the resume — the All-Pros, Pro Bowls, number of starts, team defensive ratings — Dawkins seems to pass all the tests. I just don’t know if this is his year.

As for Taylor? I’m a big fan. He won the DPOY award in ’06, and was runner up in ’02. He was #10 on my career pass-rusher list, ranks 10th in sack leader gray ink, and was the top pass rusher of the mid-’00s. Taylor is absolutely a Hall of Famer, in my opinion — 15-year career, 6 Pro Bowls, 3 first-team All-Pros, 1 DPOY — but there’s also no rush to get him in. Taylor retired in 2011, making this his first year of eligibility. There were no HOF-caliber pass rushers that retired after 2012 or 2013, so he’s an easy player for the committee to wait on.

So I think we see Warner, Law, Owens, Faneca, and Tomlinson. Davis and Lynch are perhaps the two wildcards, if for no other reason than it feels like there is momentum for both players. If that’s the case, Law seems like the easy one to make wait. On the other hand, there may not be a quarterback inducted until Peyton Manning in 2021, so perhaps the committee won’t feel any rush to put in Warner this year.

What do you think?

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