On Monday, I posted the implied SRS ratings from the Vegas lines released last week covering the first 240 games of the season. And, as discussed, the Oakland Raiders have the toughest schedule in the league, by virtue of competing in the AFC West with two elite teams, and facing the tough AFC South and NFC North Divisions. The table below shows each team’s SOS for all 16 games in 2018:
One thing I like to analyze is which teams have front-loaded or back-loaded schedules. And this year, the Cleveland Browns — a quick media and fan favorite with Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Myles Garrett, and more — run the risk of having a rough start to the season.
After adjusting for home field, just two of Cleveland’s first six opponents are weaker than average, and one of those games is when Seattle comes to Ohio (the other is the opener at home against the Titans). In the first half of the season, the Browns travel to face the Patriots, Ravens, 49ers, Broncos, and Jets, and even have to face the Rams at home in the first half of the season. On the back eight? Just one game — at Pittsburgh — comes against an opponent that (after adjusting for home field) is tougher than average. The Browns get Buffalo and Miami at home, both Cincinnati games, and face the Cardinals as part of a much lighter second half schedule.
On the other side, we have Arizona, who might be able to get off to a quick start under just-in-from-college Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals travel to Seattle and Los Angeles to face division rivals in their last two games of the season, a brutal conclusion if the team is trying to make the playoffs. But the season starts as favorably as one could hope: home for the Lions, at Baltimore, home for Carolina, home for Seattle, at Cincinnati, home for Atlanta, and at the Giants. Even if Arizona turns out to be a bad team, that’s a stretch where the young guns could go 3-4.
Here’s how to read the table below. The Browns have the 30th toughest (i.e., 3rd-easiest) schedule in the NFL, with an average opponent that is -0.71 points above average. However, a front-loaded version of the Browns SOS (the first game is worth 1x, the second game is worth 2x, the 3rd game is worth 3x, etc.) would put it at -1.50, which would be the easiest in the NFL. The difference between those two ratings is +0.78, which is the largest positive difference. That final number is how “frontloaded” each schedule is, with frontloaded meaning “having the most difficult games earlier in the season.” The Cardinals have the most backloaded schedule, with a weighted SOS of +1.46 that is 1.05 points harder than the team’s overall schedule.
In other words, the Cardinals, Bears, Chargers, and Panthers could get off to a good start because of a favorable early schedule, while the Browns, Jets, and Patriots might be able to finish strong thanks to an easier-than-expected back of the schedule.
