Previously:
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott arrived in Dallas in 2016. Since then, the Cowboys have always been a run-heavy team, and Prescott has alternated between being a very efficient passer on minimal volume and an inconsistent quarterback who has hamstrung the offense. Dallas rarely relies on Prescott to throw often unless the game gets out of hand. The most pass-happy game for Dallas in the last three seasons was a 42-17 blowout loss to Denver, when the Cowboys passed on 79% of plays. And Dallas lost by double digits in all of the other pass-happy (for Dallas) games of the Prescott ere, including against Seattle, Tennessee, and Indianapolis this year, and in Atlanta last year.
That is, until week 17. The Cowboys were tied with the Giants after the first quarter, led by 7 at halftime, by 3 after 3 quarters, and won by 1 point. If you average the points differential at the end of each quarter — here, 0, 7, 3, 1 — you get a result of Dallas +2.8 points. And the Cowboys passed on 69% of all offensive plays.
That number is the second highest in any game of the last 3 years for the Cowboys, but it’s even more remarkable when you consider the context. Until this game, the most often Dallas had passed in a game where they had a positive average points differential after each quarter was 62%, against the Giants (in a game Dallas lost) in 2016.
The graph below shows all 48 games in the Prescott era. On the Y-Axis is the percentage of plays in which the Cowboys passed (plotted from 30% to 90%, since on average teams pass around 60% of the time). On the X-Axis is the average points differential after each quarter for that game. I have put in a gray diamond with a blue outline the Giants week 17, 2018 game, which stands out as a pretty clear outlier: [continue reading…]