Which teams have gained and lost the most draft value? Using the 2019 team records and the draft value chart, this is a relatively simple question to answer. The table below shows the pick in the first round each team earned based on its 2019 performance, along with their record, the total draft value assigned based on their 2019 performance, the current draft value they have as of today, and the difference between those two numbers.
| Earned Pick # | Team | 2019 Record | Draft Value Assigned | Current Draft Value | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dolphins | 5-11 | 54.7 | 93.6 | 38.9 |
| 9 | Jaguars | 6-10 | 49.6 | 71.5 | 21.9 |
| 25 | Vikings | 10-6 | 37 | 56.5 | 19.5 |
| 28 | Ravens | 14-2 | 35.6 | 50.7 | 15.1 |
| 12 | Raiders | 7-9 | 46.2 | 60.2 | 14.0 |
| 15 | Broncos | 7-9 | 44.8 | 53.9 | 9.1 |
| 27 | Seahawks | 11-5 | 36.2 | 42.4 | 6.2 |
| 11 | Jets | 7-9 | 46.4 | 51.9 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Lions | 3-12-1 | 59.5 | 64.6 | 5.1 |
| 21 | Eagles | 9-7 | 39.8 | 42.4 | 2.6 |
| 31 | 49ers | 13-3 | 34 | 36 | 2.0 |
| 23 | Patriots | 12-4 | 38.6 | 39.9 | 1.3 |
| 14 | Buccaneers | 7-9 | 45.4 | 46 | 0.6 |
| 10 | Browns | 6-10 | 49 | 49.3 | 0.3 |
| 7 | Panthers | 5-11 | 52.7 | 52.7 | 0.0 |
| 30 | Packers | 13-3 | 34.5 | 34.2 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Cowboys | 8-8 | 42.2 | 40.4 | -1.8 |
| 32 | Chiefs | 12-4 | 33.3 | 31 | -2.3 |
| 6 | Chargers | 5-11 | 53.8 | 51.2 | -2.6 |
| 1 | Bengals | 2-14 | 67.4 | 64.4 | -3.0 |
| 16 | Falcons | 7-9 | 44.2 | 41.1 | -3.1 |
| 4 | Giants | 4-12 | 57.2 | 52 | -5.2 |
| 29 | Titans | 9-7 | 35 | 29.1 | -5.9 |
| 20 | Rams | 9-7 | 40.4 | 34.4 | -6.0 |
| 13 | Colts | 7-9 | 45.9 | 38.1 | -7.8 |
| 24 | Saints | 13-3 | 38 | 26.8 | -11.2 |
| 8 | Cardinals | 5-10-1 | 51.1 | 37.8 | -13.3 |
| 26 | Texans | 10-6 | 37 | 23.5 | -13.5 |
| 2 | Redskins | 3-13 | 62.5 | 48.5 | -14.0 |
| 22 | Bills | 10-6 | 39.1 | 23 | -16.1 |
| 19 | Bears | 8-8 | 41.5 | 24.4 | -17.1 |
| 18 | Steelers | 8-8 | 42 | 23.1 | -18.9 |
And here’s the same information but in chart form: the X-Axis shows the Football Perspective Draft Value assigned to each team based on its 2019 performance, and the Y-Axis shows the current draft value for each team. Teams above the line gained value, while teams below the line lost value.
Let’s investigate some of the biggest winners and losers in draft value, starting with the team that’s gained the most:
Miami
- Picked up the 18th pick in the draft from Pittsburgh in the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade.
- Picked up the 26th pick in the draft from Houston in the Laremy Tunsil trade.
- Acquired the 56th pick from the Saints last year, when New Orleans traded up in the 2nd round to draft center Erik McCoy, and gave up its 2020 2nd round pick in the process.
Jacksonville
- Acquired the 20th pick in the draft from the Rams in the Jalen Ramsey trade.
Minnesota
- Just picked up the 22nd pick in the draft from Buffalo in the Stefon Diggs trade last month.
- Received the 105th pick as a compensatory pick (late 3rd) for losing Sheldon Richardson to the Browns.
Baltimore
- Acquired the 55th pick in the draft (a late second marked for the Patriots but sent to Atlanta for Mohamed Sanu) from the Falcons last month in a trade for TE Hayden Hurst.
- Received the 106th pick as a compensatory pick for C.J. Mosley.
Las Vegas Raiders (yes, that still feels strange to type)
- Acquired the 19th and 81st picks in the draft from Chicago as the final compensation in the Khalil Mack trade. The Raiders also sent back their 2nd round pick in this year’s draft (#43 overall) as part of that move.
- Picked up the 91st pick from Houston in a trade during the season last year for CB Gareon Conley.
Meanwhile, the following teams lost a lot of value.
Pittsburgh
- The Steelers spent a lot of 2020 draft capital building the team’s defense. As discussed above, Pittsburgh sent its first round pick to Miami for Fitzpatrick.
- In addition, this time last year, the Steelers moved up from 20th to 10th to grab linebacker Devin Bush Jr.; in the process, they also sent the team’s 3rd round pick to the Broncos. That was the 83rd overall pick, which has been mitigated somewhat by the comp pick the Steelers got for Le’Veon Bell (102nd overall).
Chicago
- As discussed above, the Bears sent their 1st and 3rd round picks in this year’s draft — #19 and #81, as it turns out — as part of the Khalil Mack trade. They did receive back the 43rd pick in this year’s draft from the Raiders.
Buffalo
- The Bills, as we saw, sent their first round pick to Minnesota for Diggs.
Washington
- The Redskins traded back into the first round last year to draft Montez Sweat, sending last year’s 2nd round pick along with this year’s 2nd round pick to Indianapolis. Unfortunately for Washington, that turns out to be the 34th pick. This was the second straight year the Colts traded down in the first round and picked up the other team’s 2nd round pick the next season, and the second straight year that turned out to be the 34th overall pick.
Houston
- The Texans sent their first round pick (#26) to the Dolphins for Tunsil.
- Houston bolstered their draft capital (but hurt their team) by trading DeAndre Hopkins and gaining Arizona’s 2nd round pick (40th overall) in the process. However, the Texans also traded their own 2nd round pick (57th overall) for Brandin Cooks.
- Houston had picked up a 3rd round pick for Seattle in the Jadeveon Clowney trade, but they lost that pick when they traded it to the Raiders for Conley.
- Houston had picked up a 3rd round comp pick for letting Tyrann Mathieu go — who proceeded to have an All-Pro season and win a Super Bowl — but the Texans lost that pick by trading for Duke Johnson.
Other notable teams:
- The Colts gave up the highest pick in this year’s draft — the 13th overall pick — but they did it with full knowledge, at least. Last month, Indianapolis sent their first round pick to San Francisco for DT DeForest Buckner. However, because they picked up the 34th pick (Sweat trade) from Washington
- The 49ers gained that pick, but aren’t on the list of biggest draft gainers because (1) San Francisco sent their 2020 2nd round pick (ultimately pick 63) to the Chiefs for edge rusher Dee Ford, and also sent their 3rd and 4th round picks in this draft to Denver for WR Emmanuel Sanders back in October at the trade deadline. San Francisco is the rare team with two first round picks and then no picks again until the 5th round.
- The Rams gave up their first round pick for Ramsey, but they did recoup some draft value by trading Cooks to the Texans (getting the 57th pick) and picking up a third round comp pick for Rodger Saffold.
- The Patriots gained 3rd round comp picks for losing Trey Flower (98), Trent Brown (100), along with 6th rounders for losing Malcom Brown and Cordarrelle Patterson. But they also sent a 2nd round pick for Mohamed Sanu, so they aren’t a big riser.
- Similarly, the Eagles gained a 3rd round pick (Jordan Hicks) and two 4th rounders (Golden Tate, Jordan Hicks) via the comp pick process. That gave Philadelphia a lot of draft ammunition, and the team parted with some of it — its original 3rd round pick, #85 overall — to trade for Lions CB Darius Slay last month.
Finally, for those curious, I’ve explained how each team landed with each draft pick in the table below. The NFL draft order is set in the following order each year: the Super Bowl winner picks 32nd, the Super Bowl loser picks 31st, the conference championship game losers pick 29th and 30th, the division round losers pick 25th through 28th, the wildcard losers pick 21st through 24th, and the non-playoff teams pick 1st through 20th. Within those tiers, the teams with the worse records pick first, and tiebreakers are broken by strength of schedule. However, in subsequent rounds, the team that picks highest within a tiebreaker mini-tier moves to the back of the line. So among 7-9 teams, the Jets had the easiest SOS among those 6 teams, so the Jets pick first among that group in the first round; the Jets pick 6th among that group in the 2nd round, 5th in the 3rd round, 4th in the 4th round, 3rd in the 5th round, 2nd in the 6th round, and then 1st again in the 7th round.
