by Chase Stuart
on November 21, 2020
You remember Brian St. Pierre, don’t you? The former Boston College star was drafted by the Steelers in the 5th round of the 2003 Draft, and then bounced around the league for years without ever starting a game. In 2010, the Carolina Panthers drafted Jimmy Claussen in the second round, but that didn’t stop the quarterback problems that plagued the team. Carolina bottomed out under John Fox, going 2-14 and setting the team up to draft Cam Newton the following April. Claussen was terrible as a rookie and a shoulder injury to Matt Moore left the Panthers down to their third string quarterback, rookie Tony Pike.
At the time, St. Pierre was holding down one of the world’s most noble positions: stay at home dad. But with Moore’s shoulder injury ending his season, and Claussen dealing with a concussion, St. Pierre was signed to compete with Pike. During practice this week, St. Pierre “won” the job, and that meant the former B.C. star would finally start an NFL game: just one week shy of his 31st birthday! The results, however, were not straight out of a fairy tale. [continue reading…]
{ }
by Chase Stuart
on November 15, 2020
[[Update: Mahomes hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark in week 11 against Tampa Bay, and did so with exactly 1,000 completions. He had thrown for 12,782 passing yards, with 105 TDs and 20 INTs. That translates to an amazing 110.9 passer rating. When he threw that 1500th pass, a 9-yard completion to Demarcus Robinson right after the 2-minute warning in the first half, he automatically became the all-time career leader in passer rating. He moved ahead of Deshaun Watson (103.6), who had just moved ahead of Rodgers (103.3) after his great performance on Thanksgiving. Mahomes is now the newest career passer rating king, and will finish the 2020 season — and probably several more — as the all-time leader.]]
To qualify for the career leaderboard in rate statistics, a passer needs to record 1,500 pass attempts.
Aaron Rodgers reached the 1,500 pass attempt threshold on November 28, 2010 in a loss to the Falcons. At the time, his career passer rating was a few hundredths of a point behind Philip Rivers (97.34 to 97.28). As of Christmas, 2010, Rivers still held a narrow lead, but Rodgers passed him (with little fanfare) in week 16. And since week 16 of the 2010 season, Rodgers has been alone atop the passer rating leaderboard.
But in a couple of weeks, he will lose his crown. That’s because Patrick Mahomes, he of the 110.5 career passer rating, is coming up on 1,500 career pass attempts. When he does, he will become the newest passer rating king. The statistic wasn’t first used in the NFL until the 1973 season, but we can still create a historical archive (which is exactly what PFR’s Mike Kania did). The graph below shows the career leader in passer rating after every season, minimum 1,500 NFL attempts, color-coded by team. [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Passer Rating,
Patrick Mahomes
{ }
by Chase Stuart
on November 11, 2020
Previously:
In week 8 — which was nearly two weeks ago, my apologies — there were three teams that really leaned on the ground game. Buffalo never led by more than 8 points against New England, and the game was very close throughout. Despite this, the Bills ran on two-thirds of their plays. Buffalo running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss carried 28 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Allen struggled most of the day as a passer. And, as you might have guessed, Allen contributed as a runner: he had three scrambles for 24 yards and three more designed runs (he finished with 10 carries on the day, owing to four kneels). But a 2-to-1 run/pass ratio in a 3-point win is almost unheard of in the modern era, absent crazy weather or a running quarterback. Had I published this article on time, I could have had scathing criticism for Allen as a passer or the Bills offensive design, but in week 9, the Bills went super pass-heavy and won(more on this later in the week). So consider this a one-week anomaly, or a reaction to the Patriots defense (or both). [continue reading…]
Tagged as:
Game Scripts
{ }
by Chase Stuart
on November 3, 2020
The Jets are 0-8 and in the pilot’s seat for the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars have lost seven straight games and have a difficult remaining schedule; Jacksonville is in the co-pilot seat with a realistic chance to take the top spot. It’s difficult to imagine the Jets going 3-5 down the stretch, and even a 2-6 finish may be optimistic. But what if the Jets and Jaguars finish with the same record, either at 1-15 or 2-14? Who would get Trevor Lawrence?
The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, with the team having the easier schedule winning the better draft pick. The logic being if two teams have the same record, the team that did so against a weaker schedule is probably the worse team. So if you are a Jets fan, you probably should be worried that right now, the Jets project to have the toughest schedule in the NFL as of the end of the 2020 season. That leaves no margin for error in the Tank for Trevor. The Jets face the NFC West, the AFC West, the Colts and the Browns, along with the other teams in the AFC East… while also giving 14-16 of those teams one free win. So it’s not surprising that the Jets project to have the toughest schedule.
But is there a change the Jaguars schedule leapfrogs the Jets for the toughest? Let’s compare the two teams schedules.
Ignore the Browns and Chargers
The Jets play all teams in the AFC West while the Jaguars play the full AFC North. But the Jets also play the Browns and the Jaguars also play the Chargers, so these are two common opponents that we can ignore.
There are two other common opponents — the Jets play the Colts and the Jaguars play the Dolphins, but those teams still matter since the other team plays that opponent two times.
The other 14 games
I looked at Football Outsiders projected wins for each team. Here is each opponent for the Jets and Jaguars, from best to worst: [continue reading…]
{ }
