My preferred way to come up with NFL team ratings and NFL strength of schedule ratings is to trust the experts: in this case, the Vegas oddsmakers. Every year (or at least the years where I remember to do so), after Vegas releases the point spreads for every game, I take those weekly “ratings” to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by the oddsmakers (in this case, Action Network) for each team.

The way to generate team ratings is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the two international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are 4.5-point underdogs to the Panthers in Carolina, we can imply that Carolina is viewed as 2 points better than the Jets (I am using 2.5 points for home field advantage). Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 272 point spreads involved. [continue reading…]

Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. Today’s section has a little something for everyone, with a wide enough distribution of positions to fill a full offense and defense—with subs. There are underrated non-Hall of Famers and legends often cited as the best at their positions. We have ballers from 1925 to the present, with versatile Swiss Army Knife types and guys who happened to do one thing but did it at an all time great level. We’re not at the part yet where people start questioning my sanity or telling me to take a nap in traffic, but we’re getting close!

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.

Words, words, words…

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Every year, I publish a color-coded version of the NFL schedule the night it is released. Tonight is that night.

Download the Excel file here. [continue reading…]

The debate was intense this spring.  The Cincinnati Bengals desperately needed to help young quarterback Joe Burrow, and there were likely going to be two outstanding offensive prospects available for Cincinnati.  But those players would help the offense in drastically different ways.

One option was to draft Burrow’s former teammate, LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase. The other was to draft Oregon OT Penei Sewell, which would help the offense in a very different way.  Many chimed in on the debate, and the most interesting part of the analysis was the value placed on each position.  Few debated whether Chase or Sewell were elite prospects; both were blue chip players at their position in college, and little of the argument centered on how they compared to others at the same position.  Rather, the question could be boiled down to this: was adding a great WR prospect better or worse than adding a great OT prospect?

On a pass play, the wide receivers are attackers and the offensive linemen are mitigators. Grouping players into attackers and mitigators can be a helpful way to analyze what each position brings to the game.  An elite attacker is always valuable, although his value might be limited if he’s lined up against a great mitigator.  But a mitigator is only as valuable as the person he’s trying to mitigate and the other mitigators on his team. This is easiest to think about when it comes to cornerbacks.  Nnamdi Asomugha was a shutdown, Hall of Fame level cornerback for three years in Oakland at a time when the Raiders pass defense was below average. Asomugha was targeted to an absurdly low degree, and while teams were forced to throw away from him, that didn’t matter much because the other mitigators were below average. [continue reading…]

One of the most unique parts of the 2021 NFL Draft was the reuniting of college teammates in the passing game. The Cincinnati Bengals drafted LSU quarterback Joe Burrow first overall last season; holding the 5th overall selection this year, Burrow was rumored to be pushing his organization to draft his former teammate, Tigers WR Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals did in fact pull the trigger on Chase, making them the extremely rare combination of quarterback and receiver to get drafted out of the same college and to the same team in the first round in back to back years.

But it didn’t stop there.  With the very next pick, Miami drafted Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, a year after drafting Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick.  But it didn’t stop there: Alabama WR DeVonta Smith was selected by the Eagles with the 10th overall pick, and that reunites him with Jalen Hurts, the Eagles starting quarterback and a member of the 2017 and 2018 Crimson Tide teams. [continue reading…]