38 Questions Summary

by Chase Stuart on September 21, 2015

On September 7th, I announced the 38 Questions Contest. There were 82 entries, so that gives us some data to analyze. Let’s look at what turned out to be the most lopsided questions:

1) Number of wins by the team with the second-most wins (72) vs. Number of wins by Washington and Oakland combined (10)

I am not surprised that more people voted for the first option there, but the magnitude caught me off guard. Last year, the team with the second-most wins had 12 wins, although it had been 13 in each of the previous five years. If you had to guess, 13 is probably the most likely answer here, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that Washington and Oakland aren’t likely to combine for 13 (or more) wins. This one looked like a slam dunk after week one, but is on shakier ground after week two.

2t) Number of wins by the Ravens (69) vs. Number of wins by the Lions (13)

I wasn’t exactly in the dark about the preseason projections for these two teams, even if the Lions won one more game last year. This was a throwback to the very first edition of this contest, so I included it as a tip of the cap to Doug. Still, given the rules of this contest — “If the Lions and Ravens end up with the same number of wins, then each Lions-backer will get a point and each Ravens-backer will not” — I thought that might make people lean towards the underdog a bit more here. Not so much. Right now, though, both teams are 0-2.

2t) Yardage of the longest passing TD thrown by Derek Carr (69) vs. Number of distinct players to have a 100-(or more)-yard rushing game (13)

There were 44 distinct players to hit the century mark in ’14, 48 in 2013, and 42 in 2012. So that’s our baseline for the second part of the question; what about the first? Carr did throw a 77-yard touchdown last year to Andre Holmes, but his next-longest one went for 47 yards. But Carr hit Amari Cooper with a 68-yard touchdown yesterday, so this bet is pretty much toast.

4t) Number of wins by the Packers (67) vs. Number of interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers (15)

This is a fun one, because it pits a couple of stats you don’t often think about comparing. One twist here is a Rodgers injury effects both sides of the line. We can pencil in Green Bay for 10-12 wins, and Rodgers hasn’t thrown double digit interceptions since 2010. But given how random interceptions can be, I thought this one might attract a more event split.

Here’s your crazy Rodgers stat of the day: Since 2011, Rodgers has 144 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions, while Sam Bradford has 101 fewer touchdown passes and two more interceptions. Through two weeks, the score is Green Bay 2, Rodgers INTs 0.

4t) Number of J.J. Watt sacks (67) vs. Number of total TDs scored by Le’Veon Bell (15)

This one really surprised me. Both Bell and Watt can be expected to get around 1 sack/TD per game, but maybe Bell’s two game suspension was enough to cause this lopsided result? Watt has bounced from 20.5 to 10.5 to 20.5 sacks the last three years, and it’s important to remember that sacks can be pretty inconsistent from year to year. Although with three sacks in two weeks, Watt is off to a very nice start. Bell had eight touchdowns in his last five full games of 2014, and I expect big things out of him this year. But betting against Watt never sounds like a good idea.

6t) Number of rushing yards by Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray (65); combined vs. Number of rushing yards by Chris Ivory; Todd Gurley; and Frank Gore; combined (17)

Week 1 results: Ivory – 91 rushing yards; Gore – 31; Peterson – 31; Murray – 9; Gurley – DNP.

Week 2 results: Peterson – 134; Murray – 2. Ivory and Gore play tonight. I have a feeling that if we re-ran this poll, this would be much more even.

6t) Number of interceptions caught by Darrelle Revis (65) vs. Number of games started by RG3 (17)

This one is 0-0 right now, and could stay that way for awhile.

Finally, here’s one that is quickly becoming one of my favorites:

Number of Passing TDs thrown by Marcus Mariota vs. Margin of the Titans biggest win

With four touchdown throws in the opener and two more yesterday, Mariota is off to a really good start. On the other hand, Tennessee notched a 28-point win in week 1. Stay tuned, although right now, the underdog (only 27% of people picked option 2) is looking pretty good.

Finally, below is the full voting breakdown:

Search:

Rk	Choice 1	Perc	Choice 2	Perc
1	Number of wins by the team with the second-most wins	87.8%	Number of wins by Washington and Oakland combined	12.2%
2	Number of wins by the Ravens	84.1%	Number of wins by the Lions	15.9%
2	Yardage of the longest passing TD thrown by Derek Carr.	84.1%	Number of distinct players to have a 100-(or more)-yard rushing game	15.9%
4	Number of wins by the Packers	81.7%	Number of interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers	18.3%
4	Number of J.J. Watt sacks	81.7%	Number of total TDs scored by Le’Veon Bell	18.3%
6	Number of rushing yards by Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray; combined	79.3%	Number of rushing yards by Chris Ivory; Todd Gurley; and Frank Gore; combined	20.7%
6	Number of interceptions caught by Darrelle Revis	79.3%	Number of games started by RG3	20.7%
8	Maximum number of TDs thrown by Drew Brees in a single game	75.6%	Number of playoff (non-Super Bowl) games won by the visiting team	24.4%
9	Number of Passing TDs thrown by the league’s leader in passing TDs	74.4%	Maximum number of points scored in a game by the Ravens	25.6%
10	Number of Passing TDs thrown by Marcus Mariota.	73.2%	Margin of the Titans biggest win.	26.8%
10	Number of LeSean McCoy rushing yards	73.2%	Number of Sammy Watkins receiving yards	26.8%
12	Number of wins by the Giants	72%	Number of wins by the Jets	28%
12	Number of rushing TDs by the rookie with the most rushing TDs	72%	Number of postseason games where the winner scores under 32 points	28%
14	Number of Jamaal Charles games with 100 yards from scrimmage	70.7%	Number of Blair Walsh missed field goals and missed extra points; combined	29.3%
15	Minimum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Tony Romo; Peyton Manning; Andrew Luck; Ben Roethlisberger; Philip Rivers; Matt Ryan	69.5%	Maximum number of passing TDs by a player from this group: Ryan Fitzpatrick; Geno Smith; Josh McCown; Johnny Manziel; Brian Hoyer; and Ryan Mallett	30.5%
16	Number of wins by the Cowboys	68.3%	Number of wins by the Dolphins	31.7%
16	Number of receiving yards by the Jaguars leader in receiving yards	68.3%	Number of Blake Bortles rushing yards times three	31.7%
16	NFC Championship Game victories by the Packers and Seahawks	68.3%	NFC Championship Game victories by the rest of the NFC	31.7%
16	Number of playoff games won by the Patriots	68.3%	Number of playoff games won by NFC South teams; plus 0.5	31.7%
20	Number of COMBINED receiving TDs by Pierre Garcon; Eddie Royal; Jarvis Landry; and Percy Harvin	67.1%	Number of receiving TDs by the player with the MOST in this group: Dez Bryant; Odell Beckham; Julio Jones; and A.J. Green	32.9%
20	Number of interceptions thrown by Kirk Cousins	67.1%	Number of games started by Sam Bradford	32.9%
22	Number of wins by the last place team in the AFC East	65.9%	Number of wins by the Bears; minus one	34.1%
23	AFC Championship Game victories by AFC East and AFC West	64.6%	AFC Championship Game victories by AFC South and AFC North	35.4%
23	Number of double-digit losses suffered by the Eagles during the regular season	64.6%	Number of interceptions thrown in the Super Bowl	35.4%
25	Number of rushing yards by Jeremy Hill	63.4%	Number of combined passing yards by all Bills players EXCEPT FOR Tyrod Taylor.	36.6%
25	Number of interceptions thrown by Jameis Winston; minus two	63.4%	Number of interceptions thrown by Jay Cutler	36.6%
25	Highest single-game receiving yardage by a player from this group: Tavon Austin; Ladarius Green; and Shane Vereen	63.4%	Number of receptions by the player with the MOST receptions from this group: Rob Gronkowski; Greg Olsen; and Martellus Bennett	36.6%
25	Number of divisions whose 2015 champ is the same as the 2014 champ; minus 0.5	63.4%	Number of divisions whose 2015 champ is NOT the same as the 2014 champ	36.6%
29	Number of receiving TDs by C.J. Spiller and Danny Woodhead; combined	62.2%	Number of rushing TDs by Cam Newton	37.8%
30	Number of catches by the player with MOST receptions in this group: Eddie Lacy; Giovani Bernard; Ameer Abdullah; C.J. Anderson	57.3%	Total points scored in the Super Bowl	42.7%
31	Number of wins by the 49ers	56.1%	Number of wins by the Bucs	43.9%
31	Total number of TD passes thrown by the Giants.	56.1%	Number of games started by QBs drafted in the 2015 draft; minus three	43.9%
31	Number of combined kick and punt return TDs by Darren Sproles	56.1%	Number of combined kick and punt return TDs by Devin Hester	43.9%
34	Number of road wins by the Seahawks	54.9%	Number of home wins by the Rams	45.1%
34	Super Bowl Championships won by the Patriots; Colts; Broncos; Cowboys; and Seahawks	54.9%	Super Bowl Championships won by all other teams	45.1%
36	Number of wins by the Cardinals	53.7%	Number of wins by the Falcons	46.3%
36	Number of players who throw 35 or more TD passes	53.7%	Number of players in the NFL’s top 10 in rushing yards who were born in the 1990s	46.3%
38	Number of points scored in the NFC Championship game	52.4%	Number of points scored in the AFC Championship game; minus 5	47.6%

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