Suppose you know for certain that prior to kickoff, a team has a 30% chance of winning.
Question: What are the odds that at some point in the game, this team has a win probability of at least 50%? And here I mean real win probability, not just that some win probability model says they have a 51% chance.
Now, here come the real two questions I want you to answer.
1) Is the answer question: (a) something that is just trivia, or (b) relevant information for NFL analyst?
2) Is this something that you can/should use data to answer, or something that can/should be answered using logic and intuition?