Finally, a week in which the best QB games were more extreme than the worst. The league saw DYAR and ANY/A reach their high points for any week in 2021. Oddly, this was the second worst week for QBR despite the meteoric conventional stats. There seemed to be an unusual number of highlight reel catches and long completions on busted coverages, both of which are likely discounted in QBR.
Fittingly, old man Brady tops the chart in the same week he became the all time leader in total DYAR. Brady and Lamar Jackson had the two best games of the year according to DYAR but fared much worse in QBR. In Brady’s case it’s likely because he faced almost zero pressure vs Miami, while Jackson gets taken to the woodshed for his goal line fumble (another example of QBR overweighting running plays).
Josh Allen had the opposite result – dominant in QBR but merely good in DYAR. He was very successful on his runs, completed his average pass a whopping 13 yards downfield, and didn’t have enough plays to pump up his counting stats.
Another signal caller strongly favored by QBR, was, yet again, Ryan Tannehill. For the season he ranks 16th in QBR but only 27th in DYAR. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, QBR must be cutting Tannehill a break for many of his sacks and fumbles. It’s worth noting that he’s a top five QB according to PFF grading, and they’re notorious for letting QB’s off the hook for taking bad sacks.
Jacoby Brissett and Joe Burrow also get a boost from QBR this week, likely because they play behind porous offensive lines and face a disproportionate amount of pressure. Burrow’s QBR really caught me off guard; his 70 yard touchdown to Jamar Chase was more of a great catch than a great throw, and his overtime interception should’ve carried maximum weighting for leverage.
Three of the early season success stories have really crashed back to Earth the last two weeks. Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Sam Darnold have each had consecutive bad games after starting the season by performing above expectations. A classic case of regression toward the mean. Jared Goff has done nothing to silence the crowd who said he was a product of Sean McVay; Goff has been below average in four out of five games this season.
What do you guys think?
| # | QB Week 5 | DYAR | QBR | zDYAR | zQBR | zAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 233 | 80.6 | 2.35 | 1.36 | 1.85 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 187 | 84.9 | 1.79 | 1.56 | 1.67 |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | 221 | 67.4 | 2.21 | 0.74 | 1.47 |
| 4 | Matt Ryan | 137 | 87.3 | 1.18 | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | 120 | 91.6 | 0.97 | 1.87 | 1.42 |
| 6 | Davis Mills | 117 | 81.4 | 0.94 | 1.39 | 1.17 |
| 7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 114 | 76.1 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| 8 | Carson Wentz | 113 | 64.6 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| 9 | Aaron Rodgers | 77 | 68.7 | 0.45 | 0.80 | 0.63 |
| 10 | Ryan Tannehill | 38 | 74.3 | -0.03 | 1.06 | 0.52 |
| 11 | Matthew Stafford | 58 | 64.1 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 0.40 |
| 12 | Baker Mayfield | 98 | 53.2 | 0.71 | 0.08 | 0.40 |
| 13 | Mac Jones | 41 | 66.3 | 0.01 | 0.69 | 0.35 |
| 14 | Daniel Jones | 9 | 60.3 | -0.38 | 0.41 | 0.02 |
| 15 | Geno Smith | 37 | 52.8 | -0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 16 | Patrick Mahomes | 43 | 48.4 | 0.04 | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| 17 | Jacoby Brissett | -2 | 59.0 | -0.51 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| 18 | Russell Wilson | 21 | 52.9 | -0.23 | 0.07 | -0.08 |
| 19 | Teddy Bridgewater | 54 | 41.8 | 0.17 | -0.45 | -0.14 |
| 20 | Jameis Winston | 14 | 50.8 | -0.32 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| 21 | Dak Prescott | 18 | 41.1 | -0.27 | -0.48 | -0.37 |
| 22 | Joe Burrow | -40 | 53.9 | -0.98 | 0.12 | -0.43 |
| 23 | Trevor Lawrence | 36 | 32.0 | -0.05 | -0.90 | -0.48 |
| 24 | Kyler Murray | 17 | 32.6 | -0.28 | -0.87 | -0.58 |
| 25 | Mike Glennon | 13 | 30.0 | -0.33 | -0.99 | -0.66 |
| 26 | Trey Lance | -9 | 33.9 | -0.60 | -0.81 | -0.71 |
| 27 | Kirk Cousins | 6 | 28.4 | -0.42 | -1.07 | -0.74 |
| 28 | Justin Fields | -6 | 26.3 | -0.56 | -1.17 | -0.86 |
| 29 | Taylor Heinicke | -8 | 25.0 | -0.59 | -1.23 | -0.91 |
| 30 | Derek Carr | -31 | 28.6 | -0.87 | -1.06 | -0.96 |
| 31 | Jalen Hurts | -45 | 31.3 | -1.04 | -0.93 | -0.99 |
| 32 | Jared Goff | -90 | 21.5 | -1.59 | -1.39 | -1.49 |
| 33 | Zach Wilson | -77 | 17.8 | -1.43 | -1.56 | -1.49 |
| 34 | Sam Darnold | -151 | 18.4 | -2.33 | -1.53 | -1.93 |