I thought it would be fun to create NFL SRS ratings through three weeks and one Thursday Night football game. After just 3.0625 weeks, all data are heavily influenced by events that are unlikely to be repeated.  Remember Neil’s old post that showed how for teams with any record, to determine their “true winning percentage”, we need to add 5.5 wins and 5.5 losses. That means through three weeks, a team’s actual record should still be regressed to league average by nearly 80%; in other words, take all these ratings with a big grain of salt.  But there’s no reason not to run the numbers, so here are the customary parameters:

• Home wins of less than 3 points are treated as ties;

• For all other games, give the road team 3 points.  From there, wins of fewer than 7 points are treated as 7-point wins;

• Wins of between 7 and 24 points (after adjusting for home field) are treated as they are.  So a 14-point home win is a 11-point MOV, and a 17-point road win is a 20-point MOV;

• Wins of greater than 24 points convert to a Margin of Victory that is the average of 24 and the HFA-adjusted MOV.  So the Falcons get a 31.5 for beating Tampa Bay by 42 at home, while the Giants get a MOV of 29 for winning in Washington by 31.

From there, we simple use the typical SRS iteration process to produce a set a season ratings. Those are presented below:

• You won’t be too surprised to see the Bengals atop the ratings. But you might be surprised to see the 2-1 Ravens up at #2 on the list. Then again, Baltimore lost a close game to Cincinnati, beat Pittsburgh by 20, and beat a Cleveland team that checks in at #8.

• Wait, why is Cleveland #8? Well, the Browns have played the Ravens, Steelers, and Saints, and have a points differential of just -3. ^[1]Actually, they’re even more harmed in the SRS, where that points differential turns into -14. That’s pretty good, considering Baltimore is #2, Pittsburgh is #6, and New Orleans is #11.

• Wait, the Steelers are #6? Well, Pittsburgh doesn’t get dinged for losing badly to Baltimore, because the Ravens are the 2nd ranked team. Essentially, the SRS says in order to make the ratings converge, we need to set the Bengals’ rating at a really high number.  And since Baltimore only bad game was against the Bengals, we need to give the Ravens a really high rating, which means Pittsburgh can lose by 20 to the Ravens and still check in as well above average. What really helps is that the Steelers blew out #14 Carolina in Carolina. Since Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland are so connected, that game matters a lot. In fact, here is how all AFC North teams have done in non-division games this year:
  • Pittsburgh beat #14 Carolina on the road by 18
  • Cleveland beat #11 New Orleans at home by 2
  • Cincinnati beat #5 Atlanta by 14 at home
  • Cincinnati beat #18 Tennessee by 26 at home ^[2]The Ravens have not played a non-divisional road game this year.
• Let that sink in for a minute: the AFC North is 4-0 in inter-divisional games this year, with the four wins coming by an average of 15 points again pretty decent teams. That’s how they have four of the top eight teams in the SRS.

• Things like the Browns being very good makes the Saints look a lot better. In fact, New Orleans posted its worst game of the year by SRS standards in its lone win. New Orleans gets an SRS of +10 for playing to a 2-point loss in Cleveland, a +8.5 for losing by three in Atlanta, and only +2.1 for beating Minnesota at home by 11 points.

• In non-AFC North news, the thing that really stands out is Philadelphia’s 27th-place rating. So what gives? Jacksonville is horrible — the SRS puts them at 36.8 points below average — and the Eagles only beat them by 17 points at home. For reference, Jacksonville lost its other two games by 27 (at home) and 31 (on the road) points. The Eagles are also penalized for barely beating Washington. And Washington is terrible according to the SRS, ranking 31st courtesy of losing badly to the Giants, beating Jacksonville, and losing by 11 in Houston (the #22 team) in its non-Eagles games.

• What about that Colts win? Well, Indianapolis is only 26th in the ratings; after all, the Colts only beat Jacksonville, which doesn’t mean anything.  And in the team’s only other non-Eagles game, Indianapolis lost to Denver. But that doesn’t help much because the Broncos are only 17th. Why is that? Well, Denver won by 7 at home against a bad Chiefs team and lost by 6 on the road to a good Seahawks team. In other words, the SRS doesn’t know how good Denver is.  Had Denver blown out Kansas City, that would really have helped the ratings of Denver, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia, but instead, that game is dragging down the scores of all three teams.

The best way to learn about a team’s rating on the season is to see its single game ratings. To make that easy, I’ve included each team’s rating from each game in the table below. You can search for any team by using the search box. Here’s how to read the table if you type “Jets” into the search box. New York’s best game came in a 27-19 loss at home to Chicago, which provides a MOV of -11. Since the Bears are 7.4 points above average, the Jets get a rating of -3.6 for that game.