From 1994 to 2013, there were 37 quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL draft who were *not* selected with the first overall pick. Why am I looking at those quarterbacks? Well, passers selected with the first overall pick are a special case, distinct from all other quarterbacks. The odds of success are much higher there than elsewhere, as you will soon find out.
And why those years? Well, it’s too early to grade the recent draft classes, and that arguably includes the 2014 class. But if we were to include the 2014 class, I suspect we would have three picks that go down as bad ones: Blake Bortles at #3, Johnny Manziel at #22, and Teddy Bridgewater at #32. We know that Manziel was a terrible pick, and the balance of the evidence suggests that Bortles (21-40 career record) and Bridgewater (28 starts in four years) have failed to live up to expectations. But to avoid debating those guys, I decided to look at the 20-year period ending just before the class of 2014.
How did those 37 quarterbacks fare? A whopping 16 of them won fewer than 20 games in the NFL:
Jim Druckenmiller
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Ryan Leaf
Brady Quinn
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel
Heath Shuler
Matt Leinart
Tim Tebow
Jake Locker
J.P. Losman
Patrick Ramsey
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Robert Griffin
Another three — Joey Harrington, 26-50 (-24), Jason Campbell, 32-47 (-15), and Josh Freeman, 25-36 (-11) — lost at least ten more games than they won and never made a Pro Bowl. Another three — Vince Young, Kyle Boller, and Rex Grossman — had more interceptions than touchdowns and started for four or fewer seasons. Those three were busts, too, giving us 22 out of 37 picks that go down as clearly disappointing (59%).
There are seven quarterbacks (19%) who were clear hits, winning 20 more games than they lost:
Ben Roethlisberger, 135-63 (72)
Aaron Rodgers, 94-48 (46)
Donovan McNabb, 98-62 (36)
Matt Ryan, 95-63 (32)
Joe Flacco, 92-62 (30)
Steve McNair, 91-62 (29)
Philip Rivers, 106-86 (20)
That leaves eight quarterbacks. Byron Leftwich, Mark Sanchez, and Trent Dilfer could charitably be described as better than your average first round (non-first overall) quarterback, although Leftwich was a starter for just 3 seasons and Sanchez and Dilfer own two of the worst era-adjusted passer ratings of all time. If you include those three as disappointments, that brings the miss rate to just over two-thirds of all passers (25 out of 37).
So with 25 disappointments and 7 hits, that leaves a middle ground of 5 passers. Chad Pennington is your #8 quarterback: he’s the best of the rest, although he finished with a 44-37 record that keeps him far short of the +20 win club. After that, it’s dealer’s choice how you want to rank Ryan Tannehill, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, and Jay Cutler. But just know that two of those guys are in the top 10 of the 37 non-first overall first round quarterbacks from this 20-year sample. The median expectation might be a guy like Campbell, while even the 67th percentile result could land you a Tannehill.
In short: if the quarterback isn’t the first overall pick, the odds are still pretty poor of landing a star. The hit rate is about 20%.