Antonio Brown is one of the best players in the NFL, and is on his way to becoming a Hall of Fame wide receiver. Over his last 88 games, regular and post-season combined, he’s averaging over 100 yards per game. He’s been an AP first-team All-Pro selection for four straight seasons, and has led the NFL in receiving yards since he entered the league in 2010.
He also was the 195th pick in the draft, meaning he’ll likely become the 3rd player in the 195-199th draft slot range to make it to Canton. And just like Tom Brady and Terrell Davis, Brown’s success was unexpected and unique.
Don Hutson may have been the greatest receiver in league history and wasn’t drafted, but there’s a reason for that: Hutson entered the league in ’35, and — not coincidentally — the NFL didn’t institute the draft until the following season. There are only five other undrafted wide receivers to ever average at least 80 receiving yards per game over a three-year period, with a minimum of 30 games played. Charley Hennigan and Lionel Taylor did it in the early days of the AFL. George Sauer pulled off the same trick with the Jets, operating as the perfect possession receiver for Joe Namath (to the extent such a thing existed) and opposite the great Don Maynard. Later, Rod Smith did it with the Broncos, and of course Wes Welker got there with the Patriots.
Only one player drafted later than Brown has averaged 80 receiving yards per game over a three year stretch: Raymond Berry, the dominant possession receiver of his era, who teamed with Johnny Unitas.
Brown plays with Ben Roethlisberger, of course, and that obviously helps. But what makes Brown’s success noteworthy isn’t that he was a low draft pick and has averaged 80+ receiving yards per game, but that he was a low draft pick and averaged over 100+ receiving yards per game!
There have been 54 players to average 80+ receiving yards per game over a 3-year stretch with at least 30 games played. The graph below shows their receiving average over that period on the X-Axis, and their draft status on the Y-Axis. I have plotted undrafted receivers as having a draft slot of 300. As you can see, Brown — with a 104 yards/game average over one three-year period and being the 196th pick in the draft — is a notable outlier.
Brown is an enormous outlier. He’s the only person in the 100/100 club, being drafted 100th or later and averaging 100 receiving yards per game over a three year stretch. Him and Don Maynard are the only two in the 95/95 club: Maynard was the 109th pick and averaged 96.6 yards/game over one three-year stretch.
The 90/90 club brings in only “undrafted” Don Hutson and early AFL star Art Powell, which perhaps deserves an asterisk. Terrell Owens, as the 89th pick in the draft, would make the 89/89 club.
Here’s the full list: