In 2017, there were seven former number one overall picks who were their team’s main quarterback: Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, and Carson Palmer. An eighth, Sam Bradford, was going to be the Vikings starter, but he was injured early in the season.

Three more starting QBs were second overall picks: Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, and Mitch Trubisky. And another three were top five picks (Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, and Philip Rivers).

Had former 24th overall pick Aaron Rodgers played a full season, it’s likely that half of all passes thrown in 2017 would have come from players drafted 24th overall or earlier. With the Rodgers injury, the next passer (in terms of draft status) was Paxton Lynch (26th pick), who only threw 45 passes. Players drafted 26th or earlier were responsible for 49% of all passes in 2017. To cross the 50% mark, you need to drop down to 32nd overall, which brings in Drew Brees. Players drafted 32nd overall or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passes in 2017.

That number is down slightly from 2016, in large part because Sam Bradford and Andrew Luck combined for over 1,000 attempts in 2016 and just 43 last year. The NFL also lost over 500 combined attempts from Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill — as a result, in 2016, quarterbacks drafted 18th overall (Joe Flacco) or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passing attempts.

The Flacco line was also the line of demarcation in 2015, which was boosted by having Peyton Manning, Luck, Bradford, and Tannehill as starters relative to 2017. Depending on how this year’s draft goes and how early those quarterbacks start, there’s a good chance that the Flacco line is once again the median mark.

In fact, 2018 could have the 12th overall pick as the median mark, assuming good health (which, of course, is a terrible thing to assume).  But let’s assume that three out of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield wind up as top 12 picks and starting quarterbacks, and let’s place them on the Browns, Jets, and Bills.   That would mean 18 of 32 starters would be top 12 picks.  We would also see 22 of the league’s 32 starters be top-18 draft picks, up from 16 a year ago.

How do we get there?

• First, we have top-18 pick rookie quarterbacks replace 2017 starters Tyrod Taylor (180th overall), Josh McCown (81st), and DeShone Kizer (52nd).

• A healthy Deshaun Watson (12th overall) would replace Tom Savage (135th) in Houston.

• In Washington, former #1 pick Alex Smith replaces Kirk Cousins (102nd), while the Chiefs only drop to a #10 pick Patrick Mahomes.

• In Indianapolis, a healthy Luck would return to replace Jacoby Brissett (91st).

In particular, the two South divisions would have some remarkable QB pedigree. This has been a running theme in the NFC South, with two former number one picks (Winston, Newton), a third overall pick (Ryan), and Brees, who despite being Drew Brees is still the least-pedigreed member of the group by draft status.  But the AFC South would join in, too, once Luck and Watson get healthy to join Mariota and Bortles. That’s three top-3 picks and a 12th overall pick.

In the NFC, 13 of the 16 QBs will have either been former Super Bowl champions (Rodgers, Brees, Wilson) or top-3 picks. And of the remaining three, two (Garoppolo, Cousins) just signed enormous contracts, meaning Prescott — who, oh by the way, was the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons ago — is arguably the least pedigreed starting quarterback.

The AFC is a little bit weaker. Only four of the 16 teams have quarterbacks drafted in the top 5, although that number likely jumps to 6 or 7 after the draft. More broadly, 11 of the 16 AFC starting quarterbacks would have been drafted in the top 12, with the other five featuring two Super Bowl champions (Brady, Flacco), the highest paid QB in the AFC (Carr, at $25M per year), and… well, Dalton and Keenum.

This means of the 32 possible (likely?) starting quarterbacks, 21 will have been drafted in the top 12, 5 more have Super Bowl rings, and 3 more are on $25M+ contracts. One more team has one of the best bargains in football (well, depending on which version of Prescott appears in 2018), which leaves only the Bengals and Broncos in quarterback limbo.

Tomorrow, we will look at how this modern environment compares to NFL history.