Are the Texans The Worst 6-3 Team Ever?

by Chase Stuart on November 17, 2016

in Checkdowns

Regular readers are familiar with Pythagenpat Records, and using them to see how much of an outlier teams are in a given season.

You can read the link for background information, but here is the quick summary.

The Texans have scored 161 points and allowed 188 in 9 games this year. We use this formula to determine the appropriate exponent for Texans games:

(Points Scored + Points Allowed)/(Games Played)^0.251

This helps to control for things like pace of games, and scoring frequency. For Houston, that exponent is 2.50. Then, we use that to calculate the team’s Pythagenpat Record using this formula:

(Points Scored ^ 2.50) / (Points Scored ^ 2.50 + Points Allowed ^ 2.50)

For the Texans, that translates to a 0.404 winning percentage. In reality, at 6-3, Houston has a 0.667 winning percentage, so the Texans have exceeded expectations by 0.263. That’s the most in the NFL this year, with Oakland (0.563 Pythagenpat, 0.778 actual, 0.215 difference), the Giants (0.493, 0.667, 0.174), Kansas City (0.624, 0.778, 0.154) and Dallas (0.750, 0.889, 0.139) rounding out the top five. ^[1]The Browns, Bills, Eagles, Panthers, and Cardinals are in the bottom five.

So is Houston the worst 6-3 team ever? The beauty of using Pythagnepat records is we need not limit ourselves to just 6-3 teams; we can ask whether Houston has overachieved by the most of any team through nine games. Let’s look at all teams from 1950 to 2015. ^[2]Note that the 1936 Steelers were 6-3 through 9 games, with a 89/115 points scored/allowed differential; that was even worse than Houston! Here are the biggest overachievers through nine games:

Rk	Team	Year	Points	Points Allowed	Pythag	Act	Diff
1	OAK	1976	195	184	0.537	0.889	0.352
2	IND	2006	249	189	0.675	1.000	0.325
3	NOR	1973	100	217	0.131	0.444	0.314
4	CAR	2015	255	175	0.730	1.000	0.270
5	IND	1992	99	186	0.182	0.444	0.262
6	SDG	1987	192	155	0.631	0.889	0.258
7	CIN	1986	209	239	0.412	0.667	0.255
8	PIT	1989	123	220	0.190	0.444	0.254
9	DEN	1992	148	170	0.416	0.667	0.251
10	SFO	1990	222	144	0.750	1.000	0.250
11	PHI	1952	171	195	0.418	0.667	0.249
12	NYJ	2013	169	231	0.308	0.556	0.248
13	ATL	2004	194	184	0.534	0.778	0.244
14	CHI	1991	147	138	0.538	0.778	0.240
15	MIN	2000	217	204	0.540	0.778	0.237
16	WAS	1951	132	224	0.209	0.444	0.235
17	CHI	1968	167	222	0.325	0.556	0.231
18	TAM	2010	188	206	0.441	0.667	0.225
19	CAR	2003	178	163	0.555	0.778	0.223
20	ARI	2014	223	170	0.668	0.889	0.221
21	RAI	1982	260	200	0.669	0.889	0.220
22	PHI	1960	242	185	0.670	0.889	0.219
23	GNB	1970	153	200	0.338	0.556	0.218
24	IND	2012	186	201	0.450	0.667	0.216
25	SFO	1958	161	256	0.229	0.444	0.216
26	PIT	1962	203	259	0.342	0.556	0.214
27	JAX	2004	151	163	0.454	0.667	0.213
28	JAX	2010	196	250	0.343	0.556	0.212
29	TEN	1999	190	171	0.566	0.778	0.212
30	NWE	1984	195	209	0.455	0.667	0.212
31	SFO	2001	227	204	0.570	0.778	0.208
32	NYG	1965	146	230	0.239	0.444	0.206
33	ARI	1998	154	197	0.350	0.556	0.205
34	WAS	1962	201	213	0.462	0.667	0.204
35	DEN	1979	137	146	0.462	0.667	0.204
36	SFO	2006	162	251	0.242	0.444	0.203
37	WAS	2001	128	203	0.242	0.444	0.202
38	DEN	2007	153	238	0.243	0.444	0.202
39	NYG	1977	111	178	0.245	0.444	0.200
40	SEA	2006	189	199	0.467	0.667	0.200
41.5	KAN	1993	164	144	0.578	0.778	0.200
41.5	RAM	1986	164	144	0.578	0.778	0.200
43	BUF	1983	173	182	0.468	0.667	0.199
44	DET	1991	175	184	0.468	0.667	0.198
45	DAL	1970	146	185	0.358	0.556	0.198
46	MIN	1983	215	225	0.470	0.667	0.197
47	RAM	1969	252	146	0.804	1.000	0.196
48	KAN	2011	141	218	0.250	0.444	0.195
49	PHI	2003	159	166	0.474	0.667	0.193
50	STL	1982	135	170	0.364	0.556	0.192
51	NOR	2009	331	197	0.809	1.000	0.191
52	DEN	1968	147	224	0.255	0.444	0.189
53	NWE	1971	150	228	0.255	0.444	0.189
54	CHI	1962	173	214	0.367	0.556	0.189
55	STL	1975	216	188	0.589	0.778	0.189
56	MIA	1999	192	166	0.591	0.778	0.187
57	IND	2009	252	142	0.815	1.000	0.185
58	DAL	1961	141	214	0.259	0.444	0.185
59	CLE	1976	175	215	0.370	0.556	0.185
60	NYT	1961	194	237	0.371	0.556	0.185
61	PHI	1995	176	216	0.371	0.556	0.185
62	MIA	2001	180	185	0.483	0.667	0.184
63	WAS	1986	212	183	0.594	0.778	0.184
64	GNB	2011	320	186	0.816	1.000	0.184
65	PHO	1991	115	177	0.263	0.444	0.182
66	TAM	2011	156	233	0.263	0.444	0.182
67	ATL	1995	193	197	0.487	0.667	0.180
68	BUF	1988	199	139	0.709	0.889	0.180
69	MIN	1997	209	179	0.598	0.778	0.179
70	JAX	2009	181	220	0.376	0.556	0.179
71	TEN	2000	181	125	0.710	0.889	0.179
72	NYJ	1986	244	173	0.711	0.889	0.178
73	CLE	1965	239	205	0.601	0.778	0.177
74	MIN	2005	154	228	0.268	0.444	0.177
75	HOU	1979	203	206	0.490	0.667	0.176
76	DEN	1998	300	169	0.825	1.000	0.175
77	CIN	1975	202	140	0.714	0.889	0.175
78	DET	1953	197	167	0.603	0.778	0.175
79	OAK	1998	156	158	0.492	0.667	0.174
80	BUF	1997	160	194	0.381	0.556	0.174
81	ATL	2012	247	174	0.715	0.889	0.174
82	PHI	1996	211	179	0.604	0.778	0.173
83	NWE	2003	184	155	0.605	0.778	0.173
84	TEN	2008	220	117	0.827	1.000	0.173
85	DAL	1981	214	181	0.607	0.778	0.171
86	NWE	2015	303	169	0.829	1.000	0.171
87	BAL	1978	120	230	0.164	0.333	0.170
88	BUF	1974	191	160	0.609	0.778	0.169
89	NYG	1959	167	139	0.609	0.778	0.168
90	SEA	2010	166	199	0.387	0.556	0.168
91	BUF	1991	267	187	0.722	0.889	0.167
92	WAS	1982	190	128	0.724	0.889	0.164
93	KAN	2013	215	111	0.836	1.000	0.164
94	PHI	1971	88	207	0.114	0.278	0.164
95	DET	1977	110	164	0.281	0.444	0.164
96	BAL	1983	166	197	0.393	0.556	0.162
97	SFO	1967	192	226	0.395	0.556	0.161
98	HOU	1988	215	213	0.506	0.667	0.161
99	NYJ	1976	76	233	0.062	0.222	0.161
100	MIN	1973	189	94	0.840	1.000	0.160

At 0.263 above expectation, Houston would be the 5th biggest overachiever since 1950. And at 0.404, the Texans have the worst Pythagenpat winning percentage of any team to win at least 2/3 of their games through 9 games:

Rk	Team	Year	points	points_opp	Pythag	Act	Diff
1	CIN	1986	209	239	0.412	0.667	0.255
2	DEN	1992	148	170	0.416	0.667	0.251
3	PHI	1952	171	195	0.418	0.667	0.249
4	TAM	2010	188	206	0.441	0.667	0.225
5	IND	2012	186	201	0.450	0.667	0.216
6	JAX	2004	151	163	0.454	0.667	0.213
7	NWE	1984	195	209	0.455	0.667	0.212
8	WAS	1962	201	213	0.462	0.667	0.204
9	DEN	1979	137	146	0.462	0.667	0.204
10	SEA	2006	189	199	0.467	0.667	0.200
11	BUF	1983	173	182	0.468	0.667	0.199
12	DET	1991	175	184	0.468	0.667	0.198
13	MIN	1983	215	225	0.470	0.667	0.197
14	PHI	2003	159	166	0.474	0.667	0.193
15	MIA	2001	180	185	0.483	0.667	0.184
16	ATL	1995	193	197	0.487	0.667	0.180
17	HOU	1979	203	206	0.490	0.667	0.176
18	OAK	1998	156	158	0.492	0.667	0.174

So to answer today’s question…. it sure seems like it. Or, at least the worst 6-3 team since the 1936 Steelers.

References[+]

References
↑1	The Browns, Bills, Eagles, Panthers, and Cardinals are in the bottom five.
↑2	Note that the 1936 Steelers were 6-3 through 9 games, with a 89/115 points scored/allowed differential; that was even worse than Houston!

Tagged as: Pythagenpat Wins, Texans

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