Arizona’s Passing Attack With Kyler Murray Is Struggling to Get First Downs

by Chase Stuart on September 29, 2019

in Data Dump

Murray has been sacked 16 times in 3 games.

Arizona rookie Kyler Murray has some pretty strong counting stats so far this year: he’s averaging 276 passing yards per game, which would lead him to breaking the mark for passing yards by a rookie if he keeps this up for 16 games. He “only” has three interceptions, and he is completing a whopping 28 passes per game: only Drew Brees (5x), Peyton Manning (2x), and Ben Roethlisberger (2018) have ever done that in a season while playing in at least 8 games.

But Murray’s efficiency numbers have been, well, bad. He’s averaging just 4.42 ANY/A this year, thanks to an awful sack rate (10.5%) and a poor yards per completion average (9.9). But we don’t need an advanced stat like ANY/A to see Murray’s struggles: the most basic of stats will suffice.

Murray has thrown for only 37 first downs so far this year, despite having 153 passing plays (pass attempts plus sacks). That is an ugly 24.2% rate, while the league average is 32.6%. First down rate is one of the most basic stats to measure passing success, but it’s much better than completion percentage and is a handy way to quickly and easily check in on quarterback performance. The table below shows the passing stats for quarterbacks prior to today:

Rk	Player	Tm	Att	Sk	DrpBk	1D	1D%	1D Above Average
1	Dak Prescott	DAL	94	2	96	42	43.8%	10.7
2	Tom Brady	NWE	106	3	109	43	39.4%	7.5
3	Lamar Jackson	BAL	100	6	106	42	39.6%	7.5
4	Patrick Mahomes	KAN	114	3	117	45	38.5%	6.9
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	123	5	128	48	37.5%	6.3
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	84	2	86	34	39.5%	6
7	Drew Brees	NOR	48	1	49	21	42.9%	5
8	Kyle Allen	CAR	26	2	28	14	50%	4.9
9	Case Keenum	WAS	124	6	130	47	36.2%	4.6
10	Matthew Stafford	DET	107	3	110	40	36.4%	4.2
11	Philip Rivers	LAC	116	10	126	44	34.9%	3
12	Jared Goff	LAR	105	6	111	39	35.1%	2.8
13	Derek Carr	OAK	98	7	105	37	35.2%	2.8
14	Joe Flacco	DEN	110	11	121	42	34.7%	2.6
15	Russell Wilson	SEA	105	8	113	39	34.5%	2.2
16	Deshaun Watson	HOU	93	12	105	36	34.3%	1.8
17	Josh Allen	BUF	103	5	108	36	33.3%	0.8
18	Jacoby Brissett	IND	92	6	98	32	32.7%	0.1
19	Jameis Winston	TAM	98	10	108	35	32.4%	-0.2
20	Eli Manning	NYG	89	2	91	29	31.9%	-0.6
21	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	146	8	154	49	31.8%	-1.2
22	Teddy Bridgewater	NOR	57	2	59	18	30.5%	-1.2
23	Cam Newton	CAR	89	6	95	29	30.5%	-1.9
24	Gardner Minshew	JAX	88	5	93	28	30.1%	-2.3
25	Sam Darnold	NYJ	41	4	45	12	26.7%	-2.7
26	Daniel Jones	NYG	40	5	45	12	26.7%	-2.7
27	Kirk Cousins	MIN	63	2	65	18	27.7%	-3.2
28	Mason Rudolph	PIT	46	2	48	12	25%	-3.6
29	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	103	8	111	32	28.8%	-4.2
30	Marcus Mariota	TEN	92	17	109	31	28.4%	-4.5
31	Carson Wentz	PHI	145	7	152	45	29.6%	-4.5
32	Andy Dalton	CIN	129	11	140	41	29.3%	-4.6
33	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	52	6	58	14	24.1%	-4.9
34	Baker Mayfield	CLE	109	11	120	34	28.3%	-5.1
35	Josh Rosen	MIA	60	7	67	15	22.4%	-6.8
36	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	62	2	64	14	21.9%	-6.9
37	Luke Falk	NYJ	47	7	54	10	18.5%	-7.6
38	Kyler Murray	ARI	137	16	153	37	24.2%	-12.8
	Total		3472	239	3711	1209	32.6%	0

I originally thought he might be scrambling for some first downs and that this data could be biased against a player like Murray, but that’s not the case. Murray has 14 rushes this year, but only 4 have been scrambles, and only two of those picked up first downs (a third was a positive play, but not a first down). If we count his scrambles as dropbacks, then he has 39 first downs on 157 dropbacks: that’s still just a 24.8% first down rate.

Arizona may wind up leading the league in pass attempts, and Murray’s poor efficiency numbers are not automatically his fault (you can easily find fault with his offensive line, his coaching, and the general adjustment to the new scheme that all Cardinals players are working through this early in the year). But this is a good way to remember that for quarterbacks, counting stats don’t mean all that much. It’s efficiency stats that tell the story, and 1st down rate is an important one. (By the way, Dak Prescott is off to a ridiculous start, albeit against some weak competition.)

The Cardinals offense has had 36 drives this year. On 15 of those drives (42%), the team gained less than 10 yards. Make the threshold under 20 yards, and that number rises to 21 drives (58%). And the Cardinals have a 36% success rate in the red zone (30th in the NFL), which has led to some awful coaching decisions. Murray may well turn into a star quarterback, and the Cardinals offense may become a thing of beauty after it gets a few games under its belt (to say nothing of how it will look after an infusion of talent on the offensive line). But for now, don’t look at the counting stats: the true measure of when this offense will be humming is when it starts picking up first downs at a high rate.

Tagged as: First Downs

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