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Boxscore vs. PFF: Era in Review

Adam Steele is back with more analysis of traditional box score stats versus Pro Football Focus’s big time throw and turnover-worthy play metrics. And we thank him for it.


A couple of weeks ago, I compared TD/INT and BTT/TWP numbers for the 2021 season. Today we’ll be looking at the entire Pro Football Focus era going back to 2006.

Before compiling the data, I hypothesized that TD/INT and BTT/TWP would track in relative lockstep, though perhaps the upward slope of the PFF metrics would be less severe. That turns out to be true for 2006-07 and 2014-21, but oh boy was there some wackiness taking place in between. In the graph below, you’ll see league TD-INT difference in blue and league BTT-TWP difference in red:

From 2008 to 2012, quarterbacks looked just as good, if not better, by PFF numbers as they did by traditional stats. This was a sharp departure from the surrounding years in which quarterbacks scored vastly better in TD-INT than they did in BTT-TWP. This five year stretch was so anomalous that I wondered if PFF changed their charting procedures in a manner that would skew the numbers.
Fortunately, I received confirmation from PFF’s Kevin Cole that their procedures have remained uniform since 2006.

YearDpbkTDINTBTTTWPBoxPFFLuckTD%INT%BTT%TWP%
202119898836439822746397763214.2%2.2%4.1%3.7%
2020190948633819106954822152674.5%2.0%4.8%3.6%
201919069791405780752386283584.1%2.1%4.1%3.9%
201818909832419839758413813324.4%2.2%4.4%4.0%
201718655738425792729313632504.0%2.3%4.2%3.9%
20161937477941476175336583574.0%2.1%3.9%3.9%
201519466840436786792404-64104.3%2.2%4.0%4.1%
201419055803449779785354-63604.2%2.4%4.1%4.1%
201319398799502889804297852124.1%2.6%4.6%4.1%
2012189237534661067743287324-374.0%2.5%5.6%3.9%
2011185697415041112802237310-734.0%2.7%6.0%4.3%
201018364746510961653236308-724.1%2.8%5.2%3.6%
200918091703517718544186174123.9%2.9%4.0%3.0%
200817517638463725597175128473.6%2.6%4.1%3.4%
200718120715534759864181-1052863.9%2.9%4.2%4.8%
200617513643516675875127-2003273.7%2.9%3.9%5.0%

If we probe the data in table form, it turns out that 2008-09 and 2010-12 were separate mini-eras within that five year period. In 2008 and 2009, quarterbacks made fewer mistakes (TWP) than at any other point in the PFF era. That’s certainly not what I expected to see. Even more puzzling is that those relatively rare mistakes were punished at a much higher rate (INT%) than in subsequent years. The only
semi-logical explanation is that the introduction of defenseless receiver penalties in 2010 has something to do with it.

Perhaps linked to the new rules against hitting receivers, BTT% spiked from 2010-2012 and hasn’t come close to those levels since. However, the prevalence of highlight reel throws didn’t do much to elevate TD%, as subsequent seasons with fewer BTT have seen slightly higher TD rates than did 2010-2012. The kneecapped defenses from the 2011 lockout may have aided in reaching the peak of BTT rates, but that doesn’t explain 2010 or 2012 nor does it provide any reason for BTT% declining sharply in 2013 and never recovering. If any of you have theories for what happened from 2008-12 I’d love to hear them in the comments.

Enough about trends, it’s time to see the leaderboard. In the chart below, Box represents TD-INT difference, PFF signifies BTT-TWP difference, Adj PFF is BTT-TWP difference after correcting for league average in a given season, and Adj Luck equals Box difference minus Adjusted PFF difference (on-field luck plus era inflation/deflation). I included every QB season with at least one dropback since 2006 so you can access all of the data and tabulate career numbers if desired.

QuarterbackYearTeamDpbkTDINTBTTTWPBoxPFFAdjPFFAdjLuck
Aaron Rodgers2011GNB538456506394435.04
Peyton Manning2006IND5713194114222733.5-12
Tom Brady2007NWE599508389422932.510
Russell Wilson2019SEA5643154111263029.2-3
Tom Brady2016NWE447282334262928.8-3
Peyton Manning2013DEN67755104514453128.017
Peyton Manning2007IND53631144319172427.1-10
Kyler Murray2021ARI51224104112142927.0-13
Tom Brady2020TAM63140124512283325.92
Tom Brady2015NWE6623673510292525.24
Tom Brady2006NWE54224123112121925.2-13
Aaron Rodgers2020GNB5464854312433124.918
Tom Brady2021TAM74143124215312724.27
Patrick Mahomes2018KAN60650124822382623.415
Tom Brady2017NWE6163284015242522.91
Drew Brees2011NOR68146145319323422.69
Ben Roethlisberger2015PIT4892116422052222.2-17
Aaron Rodgers2021GNB5613743612332421.911
Aaron Rodgers2012GNB6033984412313221.79
Deshaun Watson2020HOU5933374214262821.35
Aaron Rodgers2018GNB6462523511232421.22
Aaron Rodgers2014GNB5483853615332121.212
Russell Wilson2018SEA4783573916282321.07
Tom Brady2011NWE64339124211273120.37
Baker Mayfield2018CLE51127144018132219.8-7
Peyton Manning2012DEN60437114919263019.76
Drew Brees2006NOR57226113118151319.5-5
Russell Wilson2020SEA60540134317272619.28
Aaron Rodgers2019GNB6052643616222019.13
Eli Manning2011NYG61729165324132918.7-6
Alex Smith2017KAN5402653111212018.23
Carson Palmer2015ARI56235114224241818.26
Joe Burrow2021CIN57134143515202017.82
Sam Bradford2016MIN5892053113151817.8-3
Ben Roethlisberger2014PIT6413293316231717.26
Patrick Mahomes2020KAN6103864622322417.115
Philip Rivers2009SDG511289319192217.12
Aaron Rodgers2016GNB6454073417331716.716
Russell Wilson2012SEA4262610339162416.7-1
Matt Ryan2008ATL4511611361652016.7-12
Cam Newton2015CAR52835103418251616.29
Matt Ryan2011ATL59229124014172616.11
Peyton Manning2008IND56927123010152015.8-1
Russell Wilson2016SEA58721113519101615.8-6
Joe Flacco2012BAL56622104419122515.3-3
Philip Rivers2010SDG57930133510172515.32
Patrick Mahomes2019KAN5012653115211615.36
Ben Roethlisberger2010PIT421175319122214.9-3
Philip Rivers2011SDG6122720452072514.8-8
Derek Carr2016OAK5762863217221514.87
Andrew Luck2016IND58631133015181514.83
Tom Brady2012NWE6643483812262614.611
Philip Rivers2006SDG487229251613914.6-2
Aaron Rodgers2010GNB50628114219172314.52
Eli Manning2012NYG55526154622112414.5-3
Drew Brees2012NOR69643195327242614.110
Matt Ryan2010ATL5942893511192414.05
Alex Smith2011SFO4891753412122213.8-2
Drew Brees2018NOR5063252812271613.813
Kirk Cousins2016WAS62925123319131413.7-1
Ryan Tannehill2019TEN317226217161413.52
Peyton Manning2009IND58133163314171913.44
Marc Bulger2006STL637248262016613.33
Troy Smith2010SFO1635421511613.3-12
Aaron Rodgers2015GNB6183183118231313.210
Matt Ryan2017ATL553201221681513.1-5
Andy Dalton2015CIN4062572714181313.15
Drew Brees2017NOR5562383116151513.12
Ben Roethlisberger2017PIT58228143318141513.01
Ben Roethlisberger2018PIT69934164327181613.05
Derek Carr2020LVR5432793718181912.95
Matt Ryan2016ATL5713872916311312.818
Matthew Stafford2019DET3091952512141312.51
Tom Brady2009NWE58128132911151812.43
Marcus Mariota2017TEN48013152915-21412.4-14
Russell Wilson2021SEA4332562612191412.37
Philip Rivers2014SDG60631182917131212.21
Derek Carr2015OAK60432133725191212.27
Russell Wilson2013SEA4512693117171412.05
Philip Rivers2007SDG482211527186911.8-6
Ben Roethlisberger2009PIT55626123013141711.72
Matthew Stafford2020DET56626103214161811.64
Josh Freeman2010TAM5022563414192011.67
Nick Foles2013PHI345272207251311.514
Derek Carr2021LVR6662314392591411.5-2
Justin Herbert2021LAC70338152713231411.312
Peyton Manning2014DEN61439153928241111.213
Tom Brady2013NWE66825113218141411.13
Colin Kaepernick2012SFO23410324971511.0-4
Drew Brees2009NOR53434112812231610.912
Matt Moore2011MIA383169392271710.6-4
Drew Brees2010NOR68333224220112210.50
Philip Rivers2013SDG57432112815211310.511
Tom Brady2018NWE59129112916181310.58
Josh Allen2021BUF67236153926211310.411
Carson Wentz2017PHI4683372917261210.416
Jay Cutler2008DEN6272518453071510.4-3
Lamar Jackson2019BAL424366209301110.420
Ben Roethlisberger2013PIT62628144027141310.34
Matthew Stafford2014DET64722122717101010.20
Andrew Luck2018IND65739153522241310.214
Sam Bradford2015PHI5601914251551010.2-5
Matthew Stafford2013DET65729193320101310.10
Damon Huard2006KAN260111191210710.00
Kirk Cousins2021MIN589337301826129.816
Philip Rivers2018LAC5403212322020129.710
Tony Romo2013DAL5703110271521129.511
Drew Brees2015NOR658321132232199.212
Tom Brady2014NWE60333923142499.215
Russell Wilson2015SEA52834827182699.217
Drew Brees2007NOR668281825201058.91
Jake Delhomme2008CAR434151224123128.8-6
Ryan Tannehill2016MIA41819122516798.8-2
Ben Roethlisberger2012PIT479268341718178.89
Aaron Rodgers2013GNB31117616611108.62
Dak Prescott2021DAL6263710322127118.618
Matthew Stafford2021LAR6314117362524118.615
Brett Favre2009MIN565337251126148.617
Donovan McNabb2009PHI4782210261312138.44
Jay Cutler2013CHI374191226167108.4-1
Matthew Stafford2011DET6994116462625208.317
Aaron Rodgers2009GNB591307251123148.315
Kirk Cousins2019MIN47226621122098.312
Baker Mayfield2020CLE512268311718148.210
Trent Edwards2008BUF39711102091118.1-7
Jeff Garcia2008TAM39912621106118.1-2
Cam Newton2012CAR521191236197178.1-1
Jeff Garcia2007TAM346134115968.01
Drew Brees2013NOR6873912362527118.019
Russell Wilson2017SEA5963411362623108.015
Justin Herbert2020LAC6273110311621157.913
Eli Manning2009NYG5392714301713137.85
Cam Newton2011CAR552211745284177.8-4
Tony Romo2011DAL5583110321521177.713
Donovan McNabb2008PHI5942311322012127.74
Tim Tebow2010DEN8853134297.5-6
Carson Palmer2007CIN59226203228647.4-1
Tony Romo2009DAL584269231017137.410
Carson Palmer2006CIN556281330291517.38
Case Keenum2017MIN50322721121597.38
Drew Brees2008NOR6483417281617127.310
Matt Ryan2014ATL659281433261477.27
Blake Bortles2017JAX54721132920897.21
Tyrod Taylor2015BUF41620624171477.17
Carson Wentz2019PHI64427733252087.113
Mac Jones2021NWE54922132415996.92
Aaron Rodgers2008GNB5702813291815116.88
Alex Smith2013KAN54723721121696.69
Matthew Stafford2018DET595211130211096.54
Matt Hasselbeck2007SEA595281230271636.410
Tyrod Taylor2017BUF4661441681086.44
Tom Brady2010NWE51736422732156.326
Josh Allen2020BUF5983710362327136.321
Kirk Cousins2018MIN646301026172096.214
Cam Newton2014CAR48618122519666.20
Tony Romo2007DAL544361936331736.211
Matt Schaub2009HOU6082915241214126.28
Kerry Collins2010TEN2911482096116.10
Dak Prescott2019DAL619301129221976.113
Charlie Whitehurst2014TEN20372126566.1-1
Donovan McNabb2006PHI33718615131225.86
Matt Schaub2007HOU30599128045.8-6
Ben Roethlisberger2007PIT451321129262135.615
Michael Vick2011PHI446181437244135.6-2
Jay Cutler2011CHI33713725146115.41
Andy Dalton2018CIN386211123161075.35
Jameis Winston2021NOR1721431261165.36
Jon Kitna2010DAL33916121654115.3-1
Tony Romo2010DAL220117134495.3-1
Jared Goff2017LAR50228724172175.316
Thaddeus Lewis2013BUF17543126165.2-4
Deshaun Watson2019HOU539261229231465.29
Andy Dalton2017CIN535251228211375.28
Michael Vick2010PHI406216231115125.210
Andy Dalton2012CIN5742716341911155.26
Ryan Tannehill2012MIA51912132713-1145.1-6
Carson Palmer2014ARI2331131510855.13
Tom Brady2019NWE64024823171665.111
David Garrard2007JAX3461831181535.010
Tyler Thigpen2010MIA702260064.8-5
Tyrod Taylor2016BUF4781761491154.86
Ben Roethlisberger2016PIT526291332271654.811
Drew Brees2016NOR700371531262254.717
Todd Collins2007WAS1125062544.60
Matt Hasselbeck2006SEA40518152020304.6-2
Andrew Luck2013IND60223930231474.410
Philip Rivers2008SDG503341125172384.319
Trevor Siemian2021NOR197113116854.24
Deshaun Watson2017HOU22319817121154.27
Derek Carr2019OAK54221817121354.29
Andrew Luck2014IND643401635312444.220
Jake Delhomme2006CAR453171115166-14.22
Ryan Tannehill2013MIA64624172720774.23
Baker Mayfield2019CLE57422212924154.2-3
Kyler Murray2019ARI59020122318854.14
Donovan McNabb2011MIN1724281274.1-2
Ryan Fitzpatrick2014HOU3331781511944.15
Tony Romo2006DAL35819131919604.12
Josh Freeman2012TAM5842717463210144.06
Matt Ryan2012ATL6433214362118154.014
Josh McCown2013CHI2351311161254.08
Chad Henne2011MIA12344104063.9-4
Matthew Stafford2017DET612291031251963.915
Brian Hoyer2016CHI2046073643.92
Eli Manning2010NYG555312536236133.72
Charlie Batch2006PIT565041533.61
Brian Griese2007CHI27710121513-223.6-6
Geno Smith2021SEA1085173443.60
Matt Moore2009CAR1478283653.62
Kerry Collins2007TEN870052033.5-4
Jared Goff2018LAR594321232262063.517
Bruce Gradkowski2009OAK1616383353.50
Kyler Murray2020ARI5852612271714103.411
Chad Henne2009MIA4771214179-283.4-5
Peyton Manning2010IND6953317341916153.313
Jalen Hurts2021PHI4581692318753.34
Tim Rattay2006TAM1054231223.2-1
Colin Kaepernick2014SFO53019102623933.26
Alex Smith2014KAN50918613101233.29
Russell Wilson2014SEA49420723201333.210
Kyle Orton2014BUF48018102017833.25
Teddy Bridgewater2014MIN44114121411233.1-1
Seneca Wallace2008SEA256113105853.15
Joe Flacco2013BAL66219223731-363.1-6
Blaine Gabbert2015SFO307107118333.10
Mike Glennon2014TAM219106129433.11
Matthew Stafford2012DET756201748323163.10
Jared Goff2019LAR64822163127643.03
A.J. McCarron2015CIN1316252433.01
T.J. Yates2015HOU623141233.0-1
Jimmy Garoppolo2016NWE664041433.01
Tim Tebow2011DEN3041262113682.93
David Carr2008NYG132030232.9-1
Brian Hoyer2019IND704452032.9-3
Matt Schaub2011HOU308156168982.96
Justin Fields2021CHI3067101814-342.8-6
Marcus Mariota2016TEN47426925221732.814
Andy Dalton2016CIN60418822191032.87
Matt Ryan2021ATL60020122621852.75
Dwayne Haskins2019WAS2327785032.7-3
John Wolford2020LAR400141-132.5-4
Jake Delhomme2007CAR918153722.54
Matt Ryan2020ATL6672611312115102.513
Sage Rosenfels2006HOU403120222.50
Joe Flacco2011BAL573201240288122.46
Drew Brees2019NOR3902741182332.421
Damon Huard2008KAN902463-232.3-4
Nick Foles2020CHI3301081711262.30
Brett Favre2006GNB634181822270-52.2-2
Eli Manning2007NYG556232024253-12.21
Drew Brees2014NOR688331730281622.214
Philip Rivers2015SDG701291321191622.214
Alex Smith2009SFO39418121610662.24
Joey Harrington2007ATL380781212-102.2-3
Ryan Fitzpatrick2010BUF465231529198102.26
Tony Romo2014DAL46434920182522.123
Blake Bortles2018JAX43413111814242.10
Kirk Cousins2014WAS2121091311122.1-1
Case Keenum2015STL1294175322.01
Gardner Minshew2020JAX35416516101162.09
Nick Foles2016KAN593042322.01
Matt Ryan2013ATL69526172520952.07
Jason Campbell2010OAK3621382012581.93
Carson Wentz2021IND54827722182041.918
Ryan Fitzpatrick2018TAM26017122017531.93
Patrick Mahomes2017KAN370131-121.9-3
Tarvaris Jackson2008MIN1639274731.85
Drew Lock2020DEN46216153023171.8-1
J.P. Losman2011MIA150020021.7-2
Philip Rivers2016SDG614332125231221.710
Kyle Boller2007BAL2999101616-101.7-3
Teddy Bridgewater2019NOR2089275721.75
Josh Johnson20212TM885231321.71
Matt Moore2012MIA211020121.6-1
Chase Daniel2018CHI853242121.6-1
Charlie Batch2011PIT260131-121.6-3
Matt Leinart2006ARI39811121417-1-31.5-3
Ryan Finley2020CIN411220-121.5-3
Mason Rudolph2020PIT442131121.5-1
Daniel Jones2020NYG49311102417171.40
Jimmy Clausen2010CAR33239147-671.4-7
Vince Young2009TEN2681071511341.42
Chad Pennington2008MIA50019716111251.311
Shaun Hill2009SFO1735263331.32
Matt Schaub2006ATL291232-111.3-2
P.J. Walker2020CAR601542-421.3-5
Matthew Stafford2010DET1006141531.34
Joe Flacco2018BAL3951261512631.35
Tony Romo2012DAL684281940279131.38
Ben Roethlisberger2008PIT51517152318251.21
Seneca Wallace2010CLE1074252231.21
Joe Flacco2014BAL573271224231511.214
Kirk Cousins2015WAS569291121201811.217
Vince Young2010TEN1691031511741.26
Jason Campbell2011OAK1706473241.21
Andy Dalton2014CIN50219172322211.21
Jay Cutler2015CHI512211119181011.29
Bruce Gradkowski2007TAM260110-111.2-2
Damon Huard2007KAN36811131415-2-11.1-3
Jake Locker2013TEN1998497421.13
Charlie Batch2010PIT533353021.1-1
Mark Brunell2006WAS2728413154-21.13
Matt Flynn2011GNB546242421.13
JaMarcus Russell2008OAK3991381713541.14
Matt Schaub2008HOU40315101915541.14
Kevin Kolb2009PHI994331121.00
Ryan Mallett2014HOU762243011.0-1
Christian Ponder2014MIN500221-211.0-3
Luke McCown2015NOR400121-111.0-2
Dan Orlovsky2015DET401121011.0-1
Josh Freeman2015IND291110011.0-1
Ben Roethlisberger2020PIT621331026182381.022
Colin Kaepernick2013SFO45521822191331.012
Alex Tanney2015TEN171010111.00
C.J. Beathard2021JAX20010011.0-1
Sean Mannion2019MIN210221-211.0-3
Troy Smith2008BAL51010111.00
Brian Hoyer2021NWE111010111.00
Tarvaris Jackson2013SEA131010110.90
Kyle Allen2021WAS211021110.90
Cody Kessler2016CLE2166254410.93
Cody Kessler2017CLE290121-110.9-2
Chase Daniel2019CHI713243110.90
Matt Barkley2018BUF262032210.91
Nick Mullens2021CLE301010110.90
Michael Vick2009PHI131010110.90
Kyle Allen2018CAR312010210.91
Sean Mannion2021MIN381010110.90
Matt Cassel2009KAN53516162317060.9-1
Joe Flacco2009BAL53521121711960.98
Kellen Clemens2013STL26387108120.80
Matt Schaub2010HOU6062412261512110.811
Jon Kitna2011DAL101232-110.8-2
Dak Prescott2016DAL48423414131910.818
Alex Smith2016KAN5171581817710.86
David Garrard2008JAX57715132116250.81
Mitchell Trubisky2017CHI361771412020.8-1
Brodie Croyle2008KAN300010010.8-1
Kyle Orton2013DAL512221010.8-1
Taylor Heinicke2020WAS201021110.80
Ben Roethlisberger2011PIT553211436267100.86
Mark Brunell2010NYJ142121110.80
Todd Collins2009WAS250021010.8-1
Matthew Stafford2016DET631241023221410.713
Kurt Warner2007ARI4712717212310-20.79
Byron Leftwich2008PIT392010210.71
Kyle Boller2006BAL585233300.72
Tyrod Taylor2020LAC320010010.6-1
Joey Harrington2006MIA40312151115-3-40.6-4
Brodie Croyle2009KAN432010210.61
Deshaun Watson2018HOU56726922191730.616
Kelly Holcomb2007MIN952144100.60
Drew Lock2021DEN1202254010.5-1
Rex Grossman2008CHI642221010.5-1
Alex Smith2006SFO477161620250-50.40
A.J. Feeley2006PHI393011300.43
Kurt Warner2008ARI624301422171650.416
Ryan Fitzpatrick2017TAM1707376410.44
Dak Prescott2020DAL23294129530.45
Josh Johnson2011TAM391210-110.3-1
Brady Quinn2008CLE902243010.30
Brooks Bollinger2007MIN571111000.30
Michael Vick2013PHI1565398210.32
Stephen McGee2011DAL411010110.31
David Garrard2010JAX39923152518870.38
Eli Manning2008NYG506211019151140.311
Brooks Bollinger2006MIN240100-100.3-1
Dak Prescott2017DAL52222131917920.29
Brian Hoyer20172TM2274498010.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick2019MIA54220131817710.27
Jake Locker2012TEN33910111913-160.2-1
Aaron Rodgers2007GNB311000100.21
Matt Ryan2018ATL66035724212830.228
Carson Wentz2018PHI43221718161420.114
Brian Hoyer2014CLE46212132424-100.1-1
Derek Anderson2007CLE5412919313410-30.110
Joe Flacco2010BAL529251028191590.115
Kirk Cousins2012WAS514354110.11
Matt Cassel2006NWE110000000.10
Aaron Rodgers2017GNB26016611101010.110
Charlie Frye2009OAK921454-310.1-3
Craig Nall2007GNB161000100.11
Brad Johnson2007DAL120000000.10
Zach Mettenberger2014TEN1978788100.11
Kellen Clemens2006NYJ50000000.10
Jared Lorenzen2007NYG90000000.10
Matt McGloin2013OAK217881514010.00
Andrew Walter2007OAK80000000.00
Brady Quinn2007CLE80000000.00
Anthony Wright2007NYG70000000.00
Kirk Cousins2017WAS581271323211420.014
Gus Frerotte2006STL30000000.00
Billy Volek2006SDG30000000.00
Vinny Testaverde2006NWE31000100.01
Anthony Wright2006CIN30000000.00
Derek Anderson2014CAR1015022500.05
Mark Sanchez2015PHI1004444000.00
Chad Henne2014JAX943144200.02
Ken Dorsey2006CLE20000000.00
Matt Hasselbeck2014IND462011200.02
Kevin Kolb2007PHI20000000.00
Patrick Ramsey2006NYJ10000000.00
Chase Daniel2014KAN320000000.00
Drew Stanton2015ARI270211-200.0-2
Jason Campbell2014CIN200000000.00
Tom Savage2014HOU200122-100.0-1
Matt Gutierrez2007NWE10000000.00
Logan Thomas2014ARI111000100.01
Brock Osweiler2014DEN101000100.01
Ryan Lindley2015IND101000100.01
Sean Renfree2015ATL90100-100.0-1
Matt Simms2014NYJ80000000.00
Shaun Hill2015MIN80000000.00
Blaine Gabbert2014SFO71000100.01
Ryan Nassib2014NYG70000000.00
Sean Mannion2015STL70000000.00
Tarvaris Jackson2015SEA70000000.00
Kellen Clemens2015SDG61000100.01
Derek Anderson2015CAR60000000.00
Ryan Nassib2015NYG51000100.01
Kellen Clemens2014SDG40000000.00
T.J. Yates2014ATL40100-100.0-1
Jimmy Garoppolo2015NWE40000000.00
Jordan Palmer2014TEN30000000.00
Chase Daniel2015KAN20000000.00
Scott Tolzien2015GNB20000000.00
B.J. Daniels20152TM20000000.00
Tarvaris Jackson2014SEA10000000.00
Matt Barkley2014PHI10000000.00
Matt Moore2015MIA10000000.00
Kellen Clemens2016SDG10000000.00
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Andy Dalton2011CIN5402013302575-4.011
David Garrard2006JAX2611095121-7-4.05
Andy Dalton2020DAL357148111160-4.010
Jacoby Brissett2016NWE6100150-4-4.04
Paxton Lynch2016DEN9221261-4-4.05
Bryce Petty2016NYJ1463759-4-4-4.10
Cleo Lemon2007MIA3346611170-6-4.14
Charlie Whitehurst2011SEA6411250-3-4.14
Scott Tolzien2017IND220204-2-4-4.12
Joe Webb2011MIN6632361-3-4.15
Ben Roethlisberger2006PIT51518231929-5-10-4.1-1
Chad Pennington2006NYJ515171616261-10-4.15
Cam Newton2019CAR950104-1-4-4.13
Alex Smith2010SFO3671410131142-4.28
Nathan Peterman2017BUF502504-3-4-4.21
Jeff Driskel2019DET11644370-4-4.24
Deshone Kizer2018GNB460215-2-4-4.22
Ryan Tannehill2021TEN578211420227-2-4.211
Daunte Culpepper2006MIA1552339-1-6-4.23
Charlie Batch2012PIT731436-3-3-4.21
Jake Fromm2021NYG661304-2-4-4.32
Devlin Hodges2019PIT17558711-3-4-4.31
John Beck2007MIA1171316-2-5-4.32
Andrew Walter2006OAK322313917-10-8-4.3-6
Nathan Peterman2018BUF881715-6-4-4.4-2
A.J. Feeley2007PHI1065849-3-5-4.41
Kellen Clemens2007NYJ277510713-5-6-4.4-1
Dan Orlovsky2011IND2076411122-1-4.56
Jason Campbell2007WAS438121119261-7-4.55
Drew Stanton2017ARI166656101-4-4.66
Marc Bulger2007STL41511151623-4-7-4.61
Cody Kessler2018JAX15322370-4-4.75
Brandon Allen2020CIN14954691-3-4.76
Jacoby Brissett2019IND474186111512-4-4.717
Carson Palmer2011OAK34513162322-31-4.82
Cam Newton2017CAR527221617206-3-4.811
Lamar Jackson2018BAL186636103-4-4.88
Matt Ryan2015ATL644211615205-5-4.810
Josh McCown2007OAK2041011814-1-6-4.84
Kyle Boller2009STL1933636-3-3-4.92
Derek Anderson2009CLE193310710-7-3-4.9-2
Geno Smith2014NYJ395131314190-5-4.95
Joe Burrow2020CIN436135151580-4.913
Matt Hasselbeck2010SEA47312172320-53-4.90
Daunte Culpepper2008DET1294659-2-4-4.93
Joe Flacco2017BAL576181316195-3-4.910
Mitchell Trubisky2018CHI4582412192212-3-5.017
Matt Hasselbeck2011TEN5371814282444-5.09
Austin Davis2015CLE1051316-2-5-5.03
Bruce Gradkowski2006TAM3539911200-9-5.05
Andy Dalton2021CHI2548959-1-4-5.04
E.J. Manuel2015BUF9033380-5-5.05
Jason Campbell2008WAS5441369107-1-5.012
Matt Cassel2014MIN773405-1-5-5.04
Ryan Fitzpatrick2008CIN410891416-1-2-5.04
Sam Bradford2012STL5862113252085-5.013
Jay Cutler2016CHI15445611-1-5-5.14
Josh McCown2016CLE183666110-5-5.15
Matt Cassel2008NWE5632111151610-1-5.115
Carson Palmer2012OAK5912214262185-5.113
Luke Falk2019NYJ890305-3-5-5.12
Trent Green2007MIA14857511-2-6-5.13
Ryan Fitzpatrick2020MIA28113812145-2-5.210
Christian Ponder2013MIN266791317-2-4-5.23
Jake Plummer2006DEN33511131322-2-9-5.23
Josh Rosen2019MIA1251549-4-5-5.21
Tarvaris Jackson2011SEA4921413201713-5.26
Cam Newton2016CAR546191427325-5-5.210
Jordan Love2021GB652316-1-5-5.24
Derek Anderson2018BUF750427-4-5-5.31
Joe Flacco2008BAL460141216182-2-5.47
Colt McCoy2021ARI10531162-5-5.47
Josh Johnson2018WAS1003416-1-5-5.44
Todd Collins2010CHI290505-5-5-5.50
T.J. Yates2011HOU14933470-3-5.55
Mike Glennon2017CHI1484538-1-5-5.54
Josh McCown2018NYJ1171416-3-5-5.53
Taysom Hill2020NOR13542372-4-5.58
Matt Ryan2009ATL470221416178-1-5.514
Donovan McNabb2010WAS50914152118-13-5.55
Drew Stanton2009DET560605-6-5-5.50
Ben DiNucci2020DAL5000160-5-5.66
JaMarcus Russell2007OAK722417-2-6-5.64
Brodie Croyle2007KAN241667140-7-5.66
Davis Mills2021HOU425161016206-4-5.612
Chris Simms2006TAM11017310-6-7-5.70
Tyler Huntley2021BAL2063438-1-5-5.85
Chris Weinke2006CAR1062429-2-7-5.84
Ryan Tannehill2014MIA6362712212715-6-5.821
Jameis Winston2015TAM562221527337-6-5.813
Andy Dalton2019CIN565161418232-5-5.88
Brock Osweiler2018MIA19564492-5-5.88
Josh McCown2014TAM36311141622-3-6-5.93
Nick Foles2015STL3517101016-3-6-5.93
Peyton Manning2015DEN3479171521-8-6-5.9-2
Nick Foles2014PHI320131014203-6-5.99
Josh McCown2015CLE31512410168-6-5.914
Philip Rivers2019LAC625232027323-5-5.99
Drew Stanton2014ARI2517510162-6-5.98
Robert Griffin2014WAS24746915-2-6-5.94
Michael Vick2015PIT7621171-6-6.07
Jon Kitna2008DET13555160-5-6.06
Caleb Hanie2011CHI12139913-6-4-6.00
Josh McCown2011CHI622416-2-5-6.04
Blaine Gabbert2016SFO1715628-1-6-6.15
Will Grier2019CAR580406-4-6-6.12
Quinn Gray2007JAX1541054115-7-6.111
Derek Anderson2008CLE297986101-4-6.27
Nick Mullens2018SFO29113105103-5-6.29
Jake Luton2020JAX1172649-4-5-6.32
Tim Boyle2021DET943617-3-6-6.43
Sam Bradford2018ARI862417-2-6-6.44
Trent Edwards2007BUF28178614-1-8-6.45
Trevor Lawrence2021JAX63412172226-5-4-6.41
Blaine Gabbert2018TEN10644390-6-6.56
Daniel Jones2021NYG3831077123-5-6.59
Trent Green2006KAN22279514-2-9-6.54
Josh Allen2018BUF34810121722-2-5-6.54
Mike White2021NYJ1365839-3-6-6.54
Taysom Hill2021NOR1434528-1-6-6.56
Eli Manning2013NYG59018272933-9-4-6.6-2
Jake Delhomme2010CLE1552759-5-4-6.62
Jameis Winston2017TAM475191123288-5-6.615
Vince Young2006TEN38212131930-1-11-6.66
Daunte Culpepper2009DET1713627-3-5-6.64
JaMarcus Russell2009OAK279311812-8-4-6.7-1
Brady Quinn2012KAN2182858-6-3-6.71
Steve McNair2007BAL21624210-2-8-6.75
Jimmy Garoppolo2019SFO5122713131914-6-6.821
Josh Rosen2018ARI43811141924-3-5-6.94
Brian Hoyer2015HOU39419771412-7-6.919
Mark Sanchez2014PHI33214119163-7-6.910
Sam Darnold2018NYJ444171516212-5-6.99
Kurt Warner2006ARI182657161-9-6.98
Dwayne Haskins2020WAS26157610-2-4-6.95
Jake Locker2014TEN16057310-2-7-6.95
Vinny Testaverde2007CAR18156614-1-8-7.06
Carson Palmer2008CIN1403406-1-6-7.06
Eli Manning2017NYG602191319246-5-7.013
Michael Vick2006ATL433201315277-12-7.114
Matt Barkley2016CHI2228141219-6-7-7.11
Ryan Lindley2012ARI18307610-7-4-7.10
Robert Griffin2013WAS494161211164-5-7.211
Trevor Siemian2016DEN517181018258-7-7.215
Keith Null2009STL1323906-6-6-7.31
Sage Rosenfels2008HOU183610511-4-6-7.33
Brett Favre2010MIN38011191516-8-1-7.4-1
Tyler Palko2011KAN1452749-5-5-7.42
John Beck2011WAS1482438-2-5-7.55
Steve McNair2006BAL482161213264-13-7.511
Brock Osweiler2017DEN183553100-7-7.68
Case Keenum2018DEN620181520253-5-7.711
Sam Darnold2021CAR4419131521-4-6-7.74
Chad Henne2010MIA52015192019-41-7.74
Eli Manning2015NYG6453514223021-8-7.829
Austin Davis2014STL3131296143-8-7.911
Mark Sanchez2010NYJ5341713252441-8.012
Jared Goff2021DET529198121811-6-8.019
Charlie Frye2006CLE4361017922-7-13-8.01
Brett Hundley2017GNB345912815-3-7-8.25
Ryan Fitzpatrick2016NYJ42212171422-5-8-8.23
Jameis Winston2016TAM6022818182610-8-8.218
Carson Palmer2010CIN6122620292762-8.314
Rex Grossman2006CHI501232021353-14-8.311
Curtis Painter2011IND259691216-3-4-8.35
Terrelle Pryor2013OAK3037111017-4-7-8.34
Mason Rudolph2019PIT2981396144-8-8.412
Sam Bradford2010STL6241815242232-8.511
Kyle Orton2009DEN570211210139-3-8.517
Drew Brees2020NOR403246151918-4-8.527
Blaine Gabbert2017ARI194667150-8-8.79
Matt Schaub2013HOU37910141421-4-7-8.75
Eli Manning2018NYG6232111253110-6-8.719
Ryan Tannehill2020TEN505337192226-3-8.735
John Skelton2012ARI21629510-7-5-8.72
Derek Carr2017OAK535221317249-7-8.818
Teddy Bridgewater2020CAR523151117204-3-8.913
Derek Anderson2010ARI3527101316-3-3-8.96
Matt Hasselbeck2009SEA520171714180-4-9.09
Matt Cassel2012KAN296612711-6-4-9.13
Jared Goff2016LAR23157312-2-9-9.17
Colin Kaepernick2016SFO36716461512-9-9.221
Carson Palmer2016ARI6372614213012-9-9.321
Blake Bortles2016JAX659231617267-9-9.316
Kyle Orton20112TM2629910150-5-9.49
Kevin Kolb2010PHI204778140-6-9.49
Jason Campbell2013CLE3331185133-8-9.512
Josh McCown2017NYJ43618915239-8-9.518
Carson Wentz2020PHI487161520241-4-9.510
Tua Tagovailoa2020MIA3101157136-6-9.515
J.P. Losman2006BUF476191419345-15-9.615
Derek Anderson2006CLE12558112-3-11-9.67
Matt Moore2010CAR156510512-5-7-9.65
Zach Wilson2021NYJ4279111018-2-8-9.68
Vince Young2007TEN4079171527-8-12-9.62
Carson Palmer2013ARI613242233402-7-9.712
Mark Sanchez2009NYJ39012201723-8-6-9.82
J.P. Losman2008BUF11925110-3-9-9.97
Jameis Winston2019TAM673333031403-9-10.013
Rex Grossman2011WAS48316203234-4-2-10.16
Jay Cutler2010CHI484231629317-2-10.117
Ryan Finley2019CIN98220100-10-10.110
Tarvaris Jackson2007MIN313912618-3-12-10.27
Matt Barkley2013PHI5204010-4-10-10.26
Carson Wentz2016PHI640161417272-10-10.312
Michael Vick2012PHI379121014182-4-10.512
Max Hall2010ARI9216110-5-9-10.56
Josh Allen2019BUF499209132311-10-10.722
Jameis Winston2018TAM405191413225-9-10.716
Blake Bortles2015JAX6573518273817-11-10.828
Eli Manning2014NYG6293014172816-11-10.827
Christian Ponder2012MIN515181223256-2-10.817
Ryan Fitzpatrick2015NYJ5813115213216-11-10.827
Zach Mettenberger2015TEN17947011-3-11-10.98
Michael Vick2014NYJ140322131-11-11.012
Mike Glennon2013TAM456199182710-9-11.021
Taylor Heinicke2021WAS532201518275-9-11.016
Joe Flacco2016BAL705201513245-11-11.316
Christian Ponder2011MIN321131315210-6-11.411
Jon Kitna2007DET61218201732-2-15-11.59
Jared Goff2020LAR575201313187-5-11.518
Mark Sanchez2011NYJ582261830328-2-11.720
Daniel Jones2019NYG4972412203112-11-11.724
Matthew Stafford2009DET40113201321-7-8-11.95
Marcus Mariota2015TEN40819109219-12-11.921
Johnny Manziel2015CLE242754162-12-11.914
Geno Smith2013NYJ48612212333-9-10-12.13
Eli Manning2016NYG6192616213310-12-12.322
E.J. Manuel2013BUF3341198192-11-12.514
Sam Darnold2020NYJ399911917-2-8-12.510
DeShone Kizer2017CLE51411222031-11-11-12.72
Derek Carr2014OAK623211213269-13-12.822
Jay Cutler2014CHI5992818162910-13-12.823
Blake Bortles2014JAX53011171225-6-13-12.87
Andrew Luck2015IND308151212253-13-12.916
Brock Osweiler2016HOU53715161528-1-13-13.212
Mark Sanchez2012NYJ48713182530-5-5-13.38
Ben Roethlisberger2021PIT6432210213212-11-13.525
Mitchell Trubisky2020CHI31516810208-10-13.522
Tua Tagovailoa2021MIA408161010226-12-13.620
Josh Freeman2011TAM58016222226-6-4-13.78
David Carr2006HOU4831112424-1-20-14.513
Jay Cutler2017MIA44919147205-13-14.520
Kyle Allen2019CAR535171620341-14-14.816
Jimmy Garoppolo2021SFO470201210238-13-14.823
Nick Mullens2020SFO345121210210-11-14.915
John Skelton2011ARI29811141222-3-10-15.012
Cam Newton2018CAR5002413132611-13-15.126
Blaine Gabbert2011JAX453121113211-8-15.617
Colt McCoy2011CLE495141120283-8-16.319
Ryan Tannehill2018MIA3091798238-15-16.324
Chad Henne2013JAX54113141024-1-14-16.415
Mike Glennon2021NYG176410218-6-16-16.711
Brett Favre2008NYJ552222217300-13-17.017
Ryan Fitzpatrick2012BUF535241619298-10-19.227
Brandon Weeden2012CLE54514171738-3-21-30.327

The very top of the board is populated by the same seasons we think of as being great by traditional stats (except Wilson 2019), but it gets much less predictable after that. I’ll spend the rest of this post highlighting seasons that caught my eye for whatever reason.

Tom Brady’s 2006 season scores higher in adjusted BTT-TWP difference than his 2017 or 2010 MVP seasons! Brady was unlucky to throw so few TD passes in 2006 and it was by far the hardest year for PFF stats in general. Meanwhile his 2010 featured exceptionally good fortune, as most extremely low INT% seasons do, and it occurred during the period where even mediocre quarterbacks were racking up BTT like crazy.

The reversal of fortune seen by Eli Manning from mid to late career was pretty insane. From 2009-12 the younger Manning averaged +11 in TD-INT difference. That average jumped to +16 from 2014-16, making it look like, at least superficially, Eli was still in his prime. But the PFF stats tell a completely different tale. From 2009-12 he averaged +20 in BTT-TWP but that cratered to a -10 average from 2014-16. He was extremely unlucky in his best years and extremely lucky in his decline years; Manning’s adjusted luck was -36 from 2009-12 and +77 from 2014-16! This is perhaps the most pointed example of how grossly TD/INT stats can warp our perceptions of a player.

Speaking of fortune reversals, Matt Ryan experienced whiplash from 2017 to 2018. In the former year he appeared to regress steeply from his MVP season with a 20/12 boxscore split. However, that was dragged down by a preposterous number of deflected interceptions, giving Ryan a healthy 21/6 PFF split in 2017. The Falcons QB looked to have a renaissance in 2018 with 35 TD and 7 INT but his PFF splits were merely 24/21. His adjusted luck swung from -5 one season to +28 the next which completely obscured the true trajectory of his performance.

A pair of unwanted quarterbacks this offseason have had their career narratives distorted by a chasm in plain old luck. Jimmy Garoppolo, while taking some heat for being a game manager or system QB, has gotten his fair share of praise for efficient play and leading his 49ers to a couple of deep playoff runs. Well, his career PFF splits are 39 BTT and 58 TWP. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield has become one of the most criticized players in the league while posting 120 BTT and 79 TWP. The difference? Jimmy G is
+57 in career luck while Baker is just +6. In 2012, Matthew Stafford totaled just 20 TD and 17 INT on a record 756 dropbacks. At first glance that would appear to be a classic game manager type season, but PFF stats reveal that it was exactly the opposite. Stafford compiled 48 BTT and 32 TWP while famously seeing Calvin Johnson get tackled on the one yard line six different times; that’s how you throw so few TD passes while slinging it all over the field. Stafford had 43 more notable plays according to BTT/TWP
than TD/INT, the largest discrepancy in the sample.

David Carr led the league in completion percentage in 2006 and placed 15th in passer rating. Pundits lamented that he could be a great QB if only his offensive line weren’t so porous. But those lying boxscore stats obscured just how pathetic Carr played in 2006. He had only 4 BTT and 24 TWP! Even after adjusting for the difficult passing environment that season, Carr was an absolute disaster and
mercifully never got to be a team’s primary starter again.

In 2013, Nick Foles memorably tossed 27 TD and only 2 INT. Surprise surprise, PFF numbers show that he wasn’t nearly that good, tallying 20 BTT and 7 TWP for an adjusted difference of only +11.5. Other than his out of nowhere run in the 2017 playoffs, Foles never came close to replicating his 2013 season.

Speaking of unsustainably low INT rates, Damon Huard threw 11 TD and a single INT in 2006. According to PFF he had 19 BTT and 12 TWP, meaning that he got away with over 90% of his mistakes that season! Predictably, Huard never came close to matching his fluky 2006 campaign.

Legendary journeyman Josh McCown managed to have two ridiculous TD/INT seasons. In 2013 he tallied 13/1 and in 2015 he posted 12/4 splits. Meanwhile, his PFF splits for those seasons were 12/5 (not bad) and 10/16 (LOL) respectively.

Remember when Jeff Garcia stepped in to rescue the Eagles’ 2006 season after Donovan McNabb got hurt? He threw 10 TD and 2 INT and received ample praise for his efforts as quality backup. His PFF stats show that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, as Garcia tallied 8 BTT and 13 TWP. The previous four examples betray a truth about quarterback stats: Don’t trust extremely low INT rates! If we look back at the olden days before charting data existed, it’s highly likely that seasons such as Steve Deberg’s 1990 or Milt Plum’s 1960 were not nearly as good as their absence of interceptions made them appear. In fact, Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 and Tom Brady’s 2016 are the only two seasons of extreme TD/INT that are actually backed up by BTT/TWP to the same degree. [1]Thank you once again to Pro Football Focus for letting me use their data publicly.


I’ll end this by noting the AP1 QB each year back to 2006 as well as their BTT/TWP, adjusted difference,
and season rank:

2021 – Aaron Rodgers; 36/12, +22, 3rd
2020 – Aaron Rodgers; 43/12, +25, 2nd
2019 – Lamar Jackson; 20/9, +10, 6th
2018 – Patrick Mahomes; 48/22, +23, 1st
2017 – Tom Brady; 40/15, +23, 1st
2016 – Matt Ryan; 29/16, +13, 8th
2015 – Cam Newton; 34/16, +16, 4th
2014 – Aaron Rodgers; 36/15, +21, 1st
2013 – Peyton Manning; 45/14, +28, 1st
2012 – Peyton Manning; 49/19, +20, 2nd
2011 – Aaron Rodgers; 50/6, +35, 1st
2010 – Tom Brady; 22/7, +6, 9th
2009 – Peyton Manning; 33/14, +13, 2nd
2008 – Peyton Manning; 30/10, +16, 2nd
2007 – Tom Brady; 38/9, +33, 1st
2006 – Drew Brees; 31/18, +20, 3rd

References

References
1 Thank you once again to Pro Football Focus for letting me use their data publicly.
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