Browns/Ravens Was The Least-Conforming Game Of The Year

by Chase Stuart on January 2, 2020

in Checkdowns

The low point of Baltimore’s brilliant season came at the hands of… Cleveland?

In week 4, the Cleveland Browns traveled to Baltimore and beat the Ravens, 40-25.

At the time, this moved the Browns into first place in the AFC North, as Baltimore and Cleveland were both 2-2.

Since then, Baltimore went 12-0, while Cleveland went 4-8. In retrospect, that game is really, really strange.

Every year, I like to examine the least-conforming games of the season. I do this by generating each team’s Simple Rating System rating — which is just points differential per game adjusted by opponent and home field. Note that I am not using SRS ratings at the time of the game, but SRS ratings as of the end of the season. Baltimore finished the season with a 15.6 average margin of victory against a perfectly average schedule; therefore the Ravens SRS rating was +15.6. Cleveland in 2019 had a -3.7 average margin of victory against a touch schedule (+1.7); therefore, the Browns finished with a -1.9 SRS rating. The beauty of the SRS is each point represents a point above or below average, and you can use the SRS ratings to predict games.

So when the Ravens (+15.6) host the Browns (-1.9), giving 3 points for home field, we would predict that Baltimore would win by 20.5 points. And when Baltimore travels to Cleveland, we would predict Baltimore to win by 14.5 points. In the latter case, that was nearly a perfect prediction: the Ravens won in Cleveland 31-15. In the former case, though, it was off by 35.5 points! That makes it the least-conforming game of 2019.

The table below shows the 2019 SRS ratings:

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	Baltimore Ravens	16	15.6	0.0	15.6
2	San Francisco 49ers	16	10.6	0.4	11.0
3	New England Patriots	16	12.2	-1.8	10.4
4	Kansas City Chiefs	16	8.9	0.2	9.2
5	New Orleans Saints	16	7.3	0.1	7.4
6	Minnesota Vikings	16	6.5	-1.1	5.4
7	Dallas Cowboys	16	7.1	-1.8	5.3
8	Los Angeles Rams	16	2.1	2.0	4.1
9	Tennessee Titans	16	4.4	-1.0	3.4
10	Green Bay Packers	16	3.9	-0.8	3.2
11	Seattle Seahawks	16	0.4	2.3	2.7
12	Buffalo Bills	16	3.4	-1.3	2.2
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	0.8	-0.2	0.6
14	Houston Texans	16	-0.6	1.0	0.4
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	16	-0.9	1.2	0.3
16	Philadelphia Eagles	16	1.9	-1.7	0.2
17	Atlanta Falcons	16	-1.1	1.1	0.0
18	Chicago Bears	16	-1.3	0.2	-1.1
19	Los Angeles Chargers	16	-0.5	-0.8	-1.3
20	Indianapolis Colts	16	-0.8	-1.1	-1.8
21	Cleveland Browns	16	-3.6	1.7	-1.9
22	Denver Broncos	16	-2.1	0.0	-2.1
23	Arizona Cardinals	16	-5.1	1.9	-3.2
24	Detroit Lions	16	-5.1	-0.1	-5.2
25	New York Jets	16	-5.2	-1.1	-6.3
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	16	-5.9	-0.6	-6.5
27	Oakland Raiders	16	-6.4	-0.3	-6.7
28	Carolina Panthers	16	-8.3	1.1	-7.2
29	Cincinnati Bengals	16	-9.0	1.5	-7.5
30	New York Giants	16	-6.9	-1.0	-7.9
31	Washington Redskins	16	-10.6	-0.3	-10.8
32	Miami Dolphins	16	-11.8	0.2	-11.6

The table below shows the results of every game this season, along with the Simple Rating System grades for each team and its opponent and the expected and actual margin of victory for the game. The final column shows how non-conforming each game was.

Week	Team	H/R	Opponent	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	Exp MOV	PF	PA	Actual MOV	Diff
4	Ravens	h	Browns	15.6	-1.9	20.5	25	40	-15	-35.5
14	Jaguars	h	Chargers	-6.5	-1.3	-2.2	10	45	-35	-32.8
12	Rams	h	Ravens	4.1	15.6	-8.5	6	45	-39	-30.5
17	Patriots	h	Dolphins	10.4	-11.6	25.0	24	27	-3	-28.0
1	Browns	h	Titans	-1.9	3.4	-2.4	13	43	-30	-27.6
12	Raiders	@	Jets	-6.7	-6.3	-3.4	3	34	-31	-27.6
10	Saints	h	Falcons	7.4	0.0	10.4	9	26	-17	-27.4
7	Falcons	h	Rams	0.0	4.1	-1.1	10	37	-27	-25.9
15	Chargers	h	Vikings	-1.3	5.4	-3.7	10	39	-29	-25.3
3	Cardinals	h	Panthers	-3.2	-7.2	7.0	20	38	-18	-25.0
1	Dolphins	h	Ravens	-11.6	15.6	-24.2	10	59	-49	-24.8
2	Dolphins	h	Patriots	-11.6	10.4	-19.0	0	43	-43	-24.0
16	Panthers	@	Colts	-7.2	-1.8	-8.4	6	38	-32	-23.6
16	Seahawks	h	Cardinals	2.7	-3.2	8.9	13	27	-14	-22.9
8	Bills	h	Eagles	2.2	0.2	4.9	13	31	-18	-22.9
13	Cardinals	h	Rams	-3.2	4.1	-4.3	7	34	-27	-22.7
11	Panthers	h	Falcons	-7.2	0.0	-4.1	3	29	-26	-21.9
4	Rams	h	Buccaneers	4.1	0.6	6.5	40	55	-15	-21.5
15	49ers	h	Falcons	11.0	0.0	14.0	22	29	-7	-21.0
17	Texans	h	Titans	0.4	3.4	-0.1	14	35	-21	-20.9
17	Panthers	h	Saints	-7.2	7.4	-11.5	10	42	-32	-20.5
6	Ravens	h	Bengals	15.6	-7.5	26.1	23	17	6	-20.1
5	Chiefs	h	Colts	9.2	-1.8	14.0	13	19	-6	-20.0
3	Titans	@	Jaguars	3.4	-6.5	6.9	7	20	-13	-19.9
17	Colts	@	Jaguars	-1.8	-6.5	1.7	20	38	-18	-19.7
14	Texans	h	Broncos	0.4	-2.1	5.5	24	38	-14	-19.5
7	Jets	h	Patriots	-6.3	10.4	-13.7	0	33	-33	-19.3
7	Eagles	@	Cowboys	0.2	5.3	-8.0	10	37	-27	-19.0
15	Rams	@	Cowboys	4.1	5.3	-4.2	21	44	-23	-18.8
6	Chiefs	h	Texans	9.2	0.4	11.8	24	31	-7	-18.8
6	Buccaneers	N	Panthers	0.6	-7.2	7.8	26	37	-11	-18.8
2	Jets	h	Browns	-6.3	-1.9	-1.4	3	23	-20	-18.6
6	Titans	@	Broncos	3.4	-2.1	2.6	0	16	-16	-18.6
17	Bills	h	Jets	2.2	-6.3	11.5	6	13	-7	-18.5
2	Saints	@	Rams	7.4	4.1	0.3	9	27	-18	-18.3
16	Vikings	h	Packers	5.4	3.2	5.2	10	23	-13	-18.2
12	Packers	@	49ers	3.2	11.0	-10.8	8	37	-29	-18.2
15	Lions	h	Buccaneers	-5.2	0.6	-2.8	17	38	-21	-18.2
9	Titans	@	Panthers	3.4	-7.2	7.6	20	30	-10	-17.6
5	Falcons	@	Texans	0.0	0.4	-3.4	32	53	-21	-17.6
13	Cowboys	h	Bills	5.3	2.2	6.1	15	26	-11	-17.1
1	Steelers	@	Patriots	0.3	10.4	-13.1	3	33	-30	-16.9
8	Panthers	@	49ers	-7.2	11.0	-21.2	13	51	-38	-16.8
10	Colts	h	Dolphins	-1.8	-11.6	12.8	12	16	-4	-16.8
4	Texans	h	Panthers	0.4	-7.2	10.5	10	16	-6	-16.5
9	Packers	@	Chargers	3.2	-1.3	1.5	11	26	-15	-16.5
9	Jaguars	N	Texans	-6.5	0.4	-6.9	3	26	-23	-16.1
8	Chiefs	h	Packers	9.2	3.2	9.0	24	31	-7	-16.0
10	Bengals	h	Ravens	-7.5	15.6	-20.1	13	49	-36	-15.9
2	Ravens	h	Cardinals	15.6	-3.2	21.8	23	17	6	-15.8
11	Texans	@	Ravens	0.4	15.6	-18.2	7	41	-34	-15.8
16	Bears	h	Chiefs	-1.1	9.2	-7.2	3	26	-23	-15.8
7	Broncos	h	Chiefs	-2.1	9.2	-8.3	6	30	-24	-15.7
11	Redskins	h	Jets	-10.8	-6.3	-1.5	17	34	-17	-15.5
5	Jets	@	Eagles	-6.3	0.2	-9.5	6	31	-25	-15.5
16	Chargers	h	Raiders	-1.3	-6.7	8.4	17	24	-7	-15.4
12	Falcons	h	Buccaneers	0.0	0.6	2.4	22	35	-13	-15.4
5	Cowboys	h	Packers	5.3	3.2	5.1	24	34	-10	-15.1
4	Redskins	@	Giants	-10.8	-7.9	-5.9	3	24	-21	-15.1
4	Colts	h	Raiders	-1.8	-6.7	7.9	24	31	-7	-14.9
13	Eagles	@	Dolphins	0.2	-11.6	8.8	31	37	-6	-14.8
15	Colts	@	Saints	-1.8	7.4	-12.2	7	34	-27	-14.8
13	Panthers	h	Redskins	-7.2	-10.8	6.6	21	29	-8	-14.6
12	Saints	h	Panthers	7.4	-7.2	17.5	34	31	3	-14.5
10	49ers	h	Seahawks	11.0	2.7	11.3	24	27	-3	-14.3
13	Jets	@	Bengals	-6.3	-7.5	-1.8	6	22	-16	-14.2
4	Cardinals	h	Seahawks	-3.2	2.7	-2.9	10	27	-17	-14.1
14	Raiders	h	Titans	-6.7	3.4	-7.2	21	42	-21	-13.8
4	Falcons	h	Titans	0.0	3.4	-0.5	10	24	-14	-13.5
4	Vikings	@	Bears	5.4	-1.1	3.5	6	16	-10	-13.5
4	Bengals	@	Steelers	-7.5	0.3	-10.8	3	27	-24	-13.2
11	Buccaneers	h	Saints	0.6	7.4	-3.8	17	34	-17	-13.2
11	Steelers	@	Browns	0.3	-1.9	-0.8	7	21	-14	-13.2
13	Patriots	@	Texans	10.4	0.4	7.0	22	28	-6	-13.0
4	Packers	h	Eagles	3.2	0.2	5.9	27	34	-7	-12.9
13	Jaguars	h	Buccaneers	-6.5	0.6	-4.1	11	28	-17	-12.9
4	Dolphins	h	Chargers	-11.6	-1.3	-7.3	10	30	-20	-12.7
17	Browns	@	Bengals	-1.9	-7.5	2.6	23	33	-10	-12.6
3	Buccaneers	h	Giants	0.6	-7.9	11.5	31	32	-1	-12.5
11	Jaguars	@	Colts	-6.5	-1.8	-7.7	13	33	-20	-12.3
15	Browns	@	Cardinals	-1.9	-3.2	-1.7	24	38	-14	-12.3
1	Seahawks	h	Bengals	2.7	-7.5	13.2	21	20	1	-12.2
13	Raiders	@	Chiefs	-6.7	9.2	-18.9	9	40	-31	-12.1
5	Browns	@	49ers	-1.9	11.0	-15.9	3	31	-28	-12.1
7	Bengals	h	Jaguars	-7.5	-6.5	2.0	17	27	-10	-12.0
14	Packers	h	Redskins	3.2	-10.8	17.0	20	15	5	-12.0
17	Redskins	@	Cowboys	-10.8	5.3	-19.1	16	47	-31	-11.9
17	Giants	h	Eagles	-7.9	0.2	-5.1	17	34	-17	-11.9
13	Colts	h	Titans	-1.8	3.4	-2.3	17	31	-14	-11.7
14	Seahawks	@	Rams	2.7	4.1	-4.4	12	28	-16	-11.6
3	Eagles	h	Lions	0.2	-5.2	8.5	24	27	-3	-11.5
17	Vikings	h	Bears	5.4	-1.1	9.5	19	21	-2	-11.5
5	Titans	h	Bills	3.4	2.2	4.3	7	14	-7	-11.3
14	Patriots	h	Chiefs	10.4	9.2	4.2	16	23	-7	-11.2
8	Jets	@	Jaguars	-6.3	-6.5	-2.8	15	29	-14	-11.2
5	Chargers	h	Broncos	-1.3	-2.1	3.8	13	20	-7	-10.8
6	Cowboys	@	Jets	5.3	-6.3	8.6	22	24	-2	-10.6
6	Packers	h	Lions	3.2	-5.2	11.4	23	22	1	-10.4
14	Cowboys	@	Bears	5.3	-1.1	3.3	24	31	-7	-10.3
9	Jets	@	Dolphins	-6.3	-11.6	2.3	18	26	-8	-10.3
2	Titans	h	Colts	3.4	-1.8	8.3	17	19	-2	-10.3
16	Cowboys	@	Eagles	5.3	0.2	2.0	9	17	-8	-10.0
13	Giants	h	Packers	-7.9	3.2	-8.1	13	31	-18	-9.9
14	Panthers	@	Falcons	-7.2	0.0	-10.1	20	40	-20	-9.9
6	Eagles	@	Vikings	0.2	5.4	-8.2	20	38	-18	-9.8
7	49ers	@	Redskins	11.0	-10.8	18.8	9	0	9	-9.8
12	Broncos	@	Bills	-2.1	2.2	-7.3	3	20	-17	-9.7
3	49ers	h	Steelers	11.0	0.3	13.7	24	20	4	-9.7
17	Buccaneers	h	Falcons	0.6	0.0	3.6	22	28	-6	-9.6
1	Broncos	@	Raiders	-2.1	-6.7	1.6	16	24	-8	-9.6
16	Steelers	@	Jets	0.3	-6.3	3.6	10	16	-6	-9.6
4	Broncos	h	Jaguars	-2.1	-6.5	7.4	24	26	-2	-9.4
5	Ravens	@	Steelers	15.6	0.3	12.3	26	23	3	-9.3
15	Dolphins	@	Giants	-11.6	-7.9	-6.7	20	36	-16	-9.3
3	Redskins	h	Bears	-10.8	-1.1	-6.7	15	31	-16	-9.3
8	Vikings	h	Redskins	5.4	-10.8	19.2	19	9	10	-9.2
6	Rams	h	49ers	4.1	11.0	-3.9	7	20	-13	-9.1
15	Titans	h	Texans	3.4	0.4	6.1	21	24	-3	-9.1
16	Titans	h	Saints	3.4	7.4	-0.9	28	38	-10	-9.1
12	Jaguars	@	Titans	-6.5	3.4	-12.9	20	42	-22	-9.1
1	Eagles	h	Redskins	0.2	-10.8	14.0	32	27	5	-9.0
2	Texans	h	Jaguars	0.4	-6.5	9.9	13	12	1	-8.9
9	Giants	h	Cowboys	-7.9	5.3	-10.2	18	37	-19	-8.8
9	Patriots	@	Ravens	10.4	15.6	-8.2	20	37	-17	-8.8
3	Bills	h	Bengals	2.2	-7.5	12.7	21	17	4	-8.7
5	Bears	N	Raiders	-1.1	-6.7	5.7	21	24	-3	-8.7
12	Eagles	h	Seahawks	0.2	2.7	0.5	9	17	-8	-8.5
2	Bengals	h	49ers	-7.5	11.0	-15.5	17	41	-24	-8.5
3	Ravens	@	Chiefs	15.6	9.2	3.4	28	33	-5	-8.4
6	Chargers	h	Steelers	-1.3	0.3	1.4	17	24	-7	-8.4
8	Cardinals	@	Saints	-3.2	7.4	-13.6	9	31	-22	-8.4
3	Chargers	h	Texans	-1.3	0.4	1.3	20	27	-7	-8.3
9	49ers	@	Cardinals	11.0	-3.2	11.2	28	25	3	-8.2
15	Steelers	h	Bills	0.3	2.2	1.1	10	17	-7	-8.1
1	Saints	h	Texans	7.4	0.4	10.0	30	28	2	-8.0
5	Redskins	h	Patriots	-10.8	10.4	-18.2	7	33	-26	-7.8
5	Giants	h	Vikings	-7.9	5.4	-10.3	10	28	-18	-7.7
1	Falcons	@	Vikings	0.0	5.4	-8.4	12	28	-16	-7.6
4	Chiefs	@	Lions	9.2	-5.2	11.4	34	30	4	-7.4
14	Jets	h	Dolphins	-6.3	-11.6	8.3	22	21	1	-7.3
8	Falcons	h	Seahawks	0.0	2.7	0.2	20	27	-7	-7.2
11	49ers	h	Cardinals	11.0	-3.2	17.2	36	26	10	-7.2
8	Texans	h	Raiders	0.4	-6.7	10.1	27	24	3	-7.1
2	Giants	h	Bills	-7.9	2.2	-7.1	14	28	-14	-6.9
16	49ers	h	Rams	11.0	4.1	9.9	34	31	3	-6.9
10	Cowboys	h	Vikings	5.3	5.4	2.9	24	28	-4	-6.9
15	Raiders	h	Jaguars	-6.7	-6.5	2.8	16	20	-4	-6.8
7	Bills	h	Dolphins	2.2	-11.6	16.7	31	21	10	-6.7
13	Vikings	@	Seahawks	5.4	2.7	-0.3	30	37	-7	-6.7
17	Broncos	h	Raiders	-2.1	-6.7	7.6	16	15	1	-6.6
1	Buccaneers	h	49ers	0.6	11.0	-7.4	17	31	-14	-6.6
11	Vikings	h	Broncos	5.4	-2.1	10.5	27	23	4	-6.5
11	Dolphins	h	Bills	-11.6	2.2	-10.7	20	37	-17	-6.3
16	Buccaneers	h	Texans	0.6	0.4	3.2	20	23	-3	-6.2
7	Texans	@	Colts	0.4	-1.8	-0.8	23	30	-7	-6.2
15	Bengals	h	Patriots	-7.5	10.4	-14.9	13	34	-21	-6.1
16	Redskins	h	Giants	-10.8	-7.9	0.1	35	41	-6	-6.1
10	Rams	@	Steelers	4.1	0.3	0.8	12	17	-5	-5.8
1	Bears	h	Packers	-1.1	3.2	-1.2	3	10	-7	-5.8
15	Broncos	@	Chiefs	-2.1	9.2	-14.3	3	23	-20	-5.7
10	Chiefs	@	Titans	9.2	3.4	2.7	32	35	-3	-5.7
12	Lions	@	Redskins	-5.2	-10.8	2.6	16	19	-3	-5.6
7	Bears	h	Saints	-1.1	7.4	-5.4	25	36	-11	-5.6
14	Cardinals	h	Steelers	-3.2	0.3	-0.5	17	23	-6	-5.5
9	Lions	@	Raiders	-5.2	-6.7	-1.5	24	31	-7	-5.5
10	Packers	h	Panthers	3.2	-7.2	13.3	24	16	8	-5.3
1	Rams	@	Panthers	4.1	-7.2	8.3	30	27	3	-5.3
3	Dolphins	@	Cowboys	-11.6	5.3	-19.9	6	31	-25	-5.1
14	Eagles	h	Giants	0.2	-7.9	11.1	23	17	6	-5.1
2	Raiders	h	Chiefs	-6.7	9.2	-12.9	10	28	-18	-5.1
7	Raiders	@	Packers	-6.7	3.2	-12.9	24	42	-18	-5.1
1	Cardinals	h	Lions	-3.2	-5.2	5.0	27	27	0	-5.0
3	Raiders	@	Vikings	-6.7	5.4	-15.1	14	34	-20	-4.9
12	Bears	h	Giants	-1.1	-7.9	9.8	19	14	5	-4.8
7	Titans	h	Chargers	3.4	-1.3	7.8	23	20	3	-4.8
5	Jaguars	@	Panthers	-6.5	-7.2	-2.3	27	34	-7	-4.7
13	Ravens	h	49ers	15.6	11.0	7.6	20	17	3	-4.6
1	Bills	@	Jets	2.2	-6.3	5.5	17	16	1	-4.5
10	Chargers	@	Raiders	-1.3	-6.7	2.4	24	26	-2	-4.4
7	Lions	h	Vikings	-5.2	5.4	-7.6	30	42	-12	-4.4
3	Seahawks	h	Saints	2.7	7.4	-1.7	27	33	-6	-4.3
12	Dolphins	@	Browns	-11.6	-1.9	-12.7	24	41	-17	-4.3
7	Giants	h	Cardinals	-7.9	-3.2	-1.7	21	27	-6	-4.3
8	Bears	h	Chargers	-1.1	-1.3	3.2	16	17	-1	-4.2
16	Patriots	h	Bills	10.4	2.2	11.2	24	17	7	-4.2
2	Vikings	@	Packers	5.4	3.2	-0.8	16	21	-5	-4.2
7	Seahawks	h	Ravens	2.7	15.6	-9.9	16	30	-14	-4.1
12	Patriots	h	Cowboys	10.4	5.3	8.1	13	9	4	-4.1
16	Bengals	@	Dolphins	-7.5	-11.6	1.1	35	38	-3	-4.1
10	Bills	@	Browns	2.2	-1.9	1.1	16	19	-3	-4.1
3	Browns	h	Rams	-1.9	4.1	-3.0	13	20	-7	-4.0
2	Broncos	h	Bears	-2.1	-1.1	2.0	14	16	-2	-4.0
2	Chargers	@	Lions	-1.3	-5.2	0.9	10	13	-3	-3.9
15	Ravens	h	Jets	15.6	-6.3	24.9	42	21	21	-3.9
6	Saints	@	Jaguars	7.4	-6.5	10.9	13	6	7	-3.9
16	Lions	@	Broncos	-5.2	-2.1	-6.1	17	27	-10	-3.9
10	Buccaneers	h	Cardinals	0.6	-3.2	6.8	30	27	3	-3.8
9	Chiefs	h	Vikings	9.2	5.4	6.8	26	23	3	-3.8
3	Patriots	h	Jets	10.4	-6.3	19.7	30	14	16	-3.7
9	Bears	@	Eagles	-1.1	0.2	-4.3	14	22	-8	-3.7
13	Falcons	h	Saints	0.0	7.4	-4.4	18	26	-8	-3.6
17	Chiefs	h	Chargers	9.2	-1.3	13.5	31	21	10	-3.5
14	Ravens	@	Bills	15.6	2.2	10.4	24	17	7	-3.4
17	Rams	h	Cardinals	4.1	-3.2	10.3	31	24	7	-3.3
6	Dolphins	h	Redskins	-11.6	-10.8	2.2	16	17	-1	-3.2
11	Bengals	@	Raiders	-7.5	-6.7	-3.8	10	17	-7	-3.2
4	Saints	h	Cowboys	7.4	5.3	5.1	12	10	2	-3.1
2	Cowboys	@	Redskins	5.3	-10.8	13.1	31	21	10	-3.1
9	Steelers	h	Colts	0.3	-1.8	5.1	26	24	2	-3.1
13	Lions	h	Bears	-5.2	-1.1	-1.2	20	24	-4	-2.8
5	Saints	h	Buccaneers	7.4	0.6	9.8	31	24	7	-2.8
3	Broncos	@	Packers	-2.1	3.2	-8.3	16	27	-11	-2.7
2	Steelers	h	Seahawks	0.3	2.7	0.6	26	28	-2	-2.6
16	Jaguars	@	Falcons	-6.5	0.0	-9.5	12	24	-12	-2.5
1	Colts	@	Chargers	-1.8	-1.3	-3.5	24	30	-6	-2.5
10	Giants	@	Jets	-7.9	-6.3	-4.6	27	34	-7	-2.4
17	Packers	@	Lions	3.2	-5.2	5.4	23	20	3	-2.4
8	Bengals	N	Rams	-7.5	4.1	-11.6	10	24	-14	-2.4
14	Buccaneers	h	Colts	0.6	-1.8	5.4	38	35	3	-2.4
6	Browns	h	Seahawks	-1.9	2.7	-1.6	28	32	-4	-2.4
9	Browns	@	Broncos	-1.9	-2.1	-2.8	19	24	-5	-2.2
12	Texans	h	Colts	0.4	-1.8	5.2	20	17	3	-2.2
15	Redskins	h	Eagles	-10.8	0.2	-8.0	27	37	-10	-2.0
8	Titans	h	Buccaneers	3.4	0.6	5.9	27	23	4	-1.9
8	Steelers	h	Dolphins	0.3	-11.6	14.9	27	14	13	-1.9
11	Bears	@	Rams	-1.1	4.1	-8.2	7	17	-10	-1.8
1	Giants	@	Cowboys	-7.9	5.3	-16.2	17	35	-18	-1.8
13	Browns	@	Steelers	-1.9	0.3	-5.2	13	20	-7	-1.8
3	Falcons	@	Colts	0.0	-1.8	-1.2	24	27	-3	-1.8
5	Bengals	h	Cardinals	-7.5	-3.2	-1.3	23	26	-3	-1.7
16	Browns	h	Ravens	-1.9	15.6	-14.5	15	31	-16	-1.5
14	Saints	h	49ers	7.4	11.0	-0.6	46	48	-2	-1.4
1	Jaguars	h	Chiefs	-6.5	9.2	-12.7	26	40	-14	-1.3
8	Patriots	h	Browns	10.4	-1.9	15.3	27	13	14	-1.3
8	Colts	h	Broncos	-1.8	-2.1	3.3	15	13	2	-1.3
2	Eagles	@	Falcons	0.2	0.0	-2.7	20	24	-4	-1.3
2	Panthers	h	Buccaneers	-7.2	0.6	-4.8	14	20	-6	-1.2
12	Bengals	h	Steelers	-7.5	0.3	-4.8	10	16	-6	-1.2
6	Falcons	@	Cardinals	0.0	-3.2	0.2	33	34	-1	-1.2
9	Bills	h	Redskins	2.2	-10.8	16.0	24	9	15	-1.0
15	Seahawks	@	Panthers	2.7	-7.2	6.9	30	24	6	-0.9
9	Buccaneers	@	Seahawks	0.6	2.7	-5.1	34	40	-6	-0.9
13	Chargers	@	Broncos	-1.3	-2.1	-2.2	20	23	-3	-0.8
4	Bills	h	Patriots	2.2	10.4	-5.2	10	16	-6	-0.8
15	Bears	@	Packers	-1.1	3.2	-7.2	13	21	-8	-0.8
8	Lions	h	Giants	-5.2	-7.9	5.7	31	26	5	-0.7
5	Seahawks	h	Rams	2.7	4.1	1.6	30	29	1	-0.6
14	Vikings	h	Lions	5.4	-5.2	13.6	20	7	13	-0.6
14	Browns	h	Bengals	-1.9	-7.5	8.6	27	19	8	-0.6
11	Lions	h	Cowboys	-5.2	5.3	-7.5	27	35	-8	-0.5
11	Chiefs	@	Chargers	9.2	-1.3	7.5	24	17	7	-0.5
17	Ravens	h	Steelers	15.6	0.3	18.3	28	10	18	-0.3
6	Patriots	h	Giants	10.4	-7.9	21.3	35	14	21	-0.3
17	49ers	@	Seahawks	11.0	2.7	5.3	26	21	5	-0.3
10	Bears	h	Lions	-1.1	-5.2	7.2	20	13	7	-0.2
11	Patriots	@	Eagles	10.4	0.2	7.2	17	10	7	-0.2
11	Eagles	h	Patriots	0.2	10.4	-7.2	10	17	-7	0.2
10	Lions	@	Bears	-5.2	-1.1	-7.2	13	20	-7	0.2
17	Seahawks	h	49ers	2.7	11.0	-5.3	21	26	-5	0.3
6	Giants	@	Patriots	-7.9	10.4	-21.3	14	35	-21	0.3
17	Steelers	@	Ravens	0.3	15.6	-18.3	10	28	-18	0.3
11	Chargers	h	Chiefs	-1.3	9.2	-7.5	17	24	-7	0.5
11	Cowboys	@	Lions	5.3	-5.2	7.5	35	27	8	0.5
14	Bengals	@	Browns	-7.5	-1.9	-8.6	19	27	-8	0.6
14	Lions	@	Vikings	-5.2	5.4	-13.6	7	20	-13	0.6
5	Rams	@	Seahawks	4.1	2.7	-1.6	29	30	-1	0.6
8	Giants	@	Lions	-7.9	-5.2	-5.7	26	31	-5	0.7
15	Packers	h	Bears	3.2	-1.1	7.2	21	13	8	0.8
4	Patriots	@	Bills	10.4	2.2	5.2	16	10	6	0.8
13	Broncos	h	Chargers	-2.1	-1.3	2.2	23	20	3	0.8
9	Seahawks	h	Buccaneers	2.7	0.6	5.1	40	34	6	0.9
15	Panthers	h	Seahawks	-7.2	2.7	-6.9	24	30	-6	0.9
9	Redskins	@	Bills	-10.8	2.2	-16.0	9	24	-15	1.0
6	Cardinals	h	Falcons	-3.2	0.0	-0.2	34	33	1	1.2
12	Steelers	@	Bengals	0.3	-7.5	4.8	16	10	6	1.2
2	Buccaneers	@	Panthers	0.6	-7.2	4.8	20	14	6	1.2
2	Falcons	h	Eagles	0.0	0.2	2.7	24	20	4	1.3
8	Broncos	@	Colts	-2.1	-1.8	-3.3	13	15	-2	1.3
8	Browns	@	Patriots	-1.9	10.4	-15.3	13	27	-14	1.3
1	Chiefs	@	Jaguars	9.2	-6.5	12.7	40	26	14	1.3
14	49ers	@	Saints	11.0	7.4	0.6	48	46	2	1.4
16	Ravens	@	Browns	15.6	-1.9	14.5	31	15	16	1.5
5	Cardinals	@	Bengals	-3.2	-7.5	1.3	26	23	3	1.7
3	Colts	h	Falcons	-1.8	0.0	1.2	27	24	3	1.8
13	Steelers	h	Browns	0.3	-1.9	5.2	20	13	7	1.8
1	Cowboys	h	Giants	5.3	-7.9	16.2	35	17	18	1.8
11	Rams	h	Bears	4.1	-1.1	8.2	17	7	10	1.8
8	Dolphins	@	Steelers	-11.6	0.3	-14.9	14	27	-13	1.9
8	Buccaneers	@	Titans	0.6	3.4	-5.9	23	27	-4	1.9
15	Eagles	@	Redskins	0.2	-10.8	8.0	37	27	10	2.0
12	Colts	@	Texans	-1.8	0.4	-5.2	17	20	-3	2.2
9	Broncos	h	Browns	-2.1	-1.9	2.8	24	19	5	2.2
6	Seahawks	@	Browns	2.7	-1.9	1.6	32	28	4	2.4
14	Colts	@	Buccaneers	-1.8	0.6	-5.4	35	38	-3	2.4
8	Rams	N	Bengals	4.1	-7.5	11.6	24	10	14	2.4
17	Lions	h	Packers	-5.2	3.2	-5.4	20	23	-3	2.4
10	Jets	h	Giants	-6.3	-7.9	4.6	34	27	7	2.4
1	Chargers	h	Colts	-1.3	-1.8	3.5	30	24	6	2.5
16	Falcons	h	Jaguars	0.0	-6.5	9.5	24	12	12	2.5
2	Seahawks	@	Steelers	2.7	0.3	-0.6	28	26	2	2.6
3	Packers	h	Broncos	3.2	-2.1	8.3	27	16	11	2.7
5	Buccaneers	@	Saints	0.6	7.4	-9.8	24	31	-7	2.8
13	Bears	@	Lions	-1.1	-5.2	1.2	24	20	4	2.8
9	Colts	@	Steelers	-1.8	0.3	-5.1	24	26	-2	3.1
2	Redskins	h	Cowboys	-10.8	5.3	-13.1	21	31	-10	3.1
4	Cowboys	@	Saints	5.3	7.4	-5.1	10	12	-2	3.1
11	Raiders	h	Bengals	-6.7	-7.5	3.8	17	10	7	3.2
6	Redskins	@	Dolphins	-10.8	-11.6	-2.2	17	16	1	3.2
17	Cardinals	@	Rams	-3.2	4.1	-10.3	24	31	-7	3.3
14	Bills	h	Ravens	2.2	15.6	-10.4	17	24	-7	3.4
17	Chargers	@	Chiefs	-1.3	9.2	-13.5	21	31	-10	3.5
13	Saints	@	Falcons	7.4	0.0	4.4	26	18	8	3.6
9	Eagles	h	Bears	0.2	-1.1	4.3	22	14	8	3.7
3	Jets	@	Patriots	-6.3	10.4	-19.7	14	30	-16	3.7
9	Vikings	@	Chiefs	5.4	9.2	-6.8	23	26	-3	3.8
10	Cardinals	@	Buccaneers	-3.2	0.6	-6.8	27	30	-3	3.8
16	Broncos	h	Lions	-2.1	-5.2	6.1	27	17	10	3.9
6	Jaguars	h	Saints	-6.5	7.4	-10.9	6	13	-7	3.9
15	Jets	@	Ravens	-6.3	15.6	-24.9	21	42	-21	3.9
2	Lions	h	Chargers	-5.2	-1.3	-0.9	13	10	3	3.9
2	Bears	@	Broncos	-1.1	-2.1	-2.0	16	14	2	4.0
3	Rams	@	Browns	4.1	-1.9	3.0	20	13	7	4.0
10	Browns	h	Bills	-1.9	2.2	-1.1	19	16	3	4.1
16	Dolphins	h	Bengals	-11.6	-7.5	-1.1	38	35	3	4.1
12	Cowboys	@	Patriots	5.3	10.4	-8.1	9	13	-4	4.1
7	Ravens	@	Seahawks	15.6	2.7	9.9	30	16	14	4.1
2	Packers	h	Vikings	3.2	5.4	0.8	21	16	5	4.2
16	Bills	@	Patriots	2.2	10.4	-11.2	17	24	-7	4.2
8	Chargers	@	Bears	-1.3	-1.1	-3.2	17	16	1	4.2
7	Cardinals	@	Giants	-3.2	-7.9	1.7	27	21	6	4.3
12	Browns	h	Dolphins	-1.9	-11.6	12.7	41	24	17	4.3
3	Saints	@	Seahawks	7.4	2.7	1.7	33	27	6	4.3
7	Vikings	@	Lions	5.4	-5.2	7.6	42	30	12	4.4
10	Raiders	h	Chargers	-6.7	-1.3	-2.4	26	24	2	4.4
1	Jets	h	Bills	-6.3	2.2	-5.5	16	17	-1	4.5
13	49ers	@	Ravens	11.0	15.6	-7.6	17	20	-3	4.6
5	Panthers	h	Jaguars	-7.2	-6.5	2.3	34	27	7	4.7
7	Chargers	@	Titans	-1.3	3.4	-7.8	20	23	-3	4.8
12	Giants	@	Bears	-7.9	-1.1	-9.8	14	19	-5	4.8
3	Vikings	h	Raiders	5.4	-6.7	15.1	34	14	20	4.9
1	Lions	@	Cardinals	-5.2	-3.2	-5.0	27	27	0	5.0
7	Packers	h	Raiders	3.2	-6.7	12.9	42	24	18	5.1
2	Chiefs	@	Raiders	9.2	-6.7	12.9	28	10	18	5.1
14	Giants	@	Eagles	-7.9	0.2	-11.1	17	23	-6	5.1
3	Cowboys	h	Dolphins	5.3	-11.6	19.9	31	6	25	5.1
1	Panthers	h	Rams	-7.2	4.1	-8.3	27	30	-3	5.3
10	Panthers	@	Packers	-7.2	3.2	-13.3	16	24	-8	5.3
9	Raiders	h	Lions	-6.7	-5.2	1.5	31	24	7	5.5
14	Steelers	@	Cardinals	0.3	-3.2	0.5	23	17	6	5.5
7	Saints	@	Bears	7.4	-1.1	5.4	36	25	11	5.6
12	Redskins	h	Lions	-10.8	-5.2	-2.6	19	16	3	5.6
10	Titans	h	Chiefs	3.4	9.2	-2.7	35	32	3	5.7
15	Chiefs	h	Broncos	9.2	-2.1	14.3	23	3	20	5.7
1	Packers	@	Bears	3.2	-1.1	1.2	10	3	7	5.8
10	Steelers	h	Rams	0.3	4.1	-0.8	17	12	5	5.8
16	Giants	@	Redskins	-7.9	-10.8	-0.1	41	35	6	6.1
15	Patriots	@	Bengals	10.4	-7.5	14.9	34	13	21	6.1
7	Colts	h	Texans	-1.8	0.4	0.8	30	23	7	6.2
16	Texans	@	Buccaneers	0.4	0.6	-3.2	23	20	3	6.2
11	Bills	@	Dolphins	2.2	-11.6	10.7	37	20	17	6.3
11	Broncos	@	Vikings	-2.1	5.4	-10.5	23	27	-4	6.5
1	49ers	@	Buccaneers	11.0	0.6	7.4	31	17	14	6.6
17	Raiders	@	Broncos	-6.7	-2.1	-7.6	15	16	-1	6.6
13	Seahawks	h	Vikings	2.7	5.4	0.3	37	30	7	6.7
7	Dolphins	@	Bills	-11.6	2.2	-16.7	21	31	-10	6.7
15	Jaguars	@	Raiders	-6.5	-6.7	-2.8	20	16	4	6.8
10	Vikings	@	Cowboys	5.4	5.3	-2.9	28	24	4	6.9
16	Rams	@	49ers	4.1	11.0	-9.9	31	34	-3	6.9
2	Bills	@	Giants	2.2	-7.9	7.1	28	14	14	6.9
8	Raiders	@	Texans	-6.7	0.4	-10.1	24	27	-3	7.1
11	Cardinals	@	49ers	-3.2	11.0	-17.2	26	36	-10	7.2
8	Seahawks	@	Falcons	2.7	0.0	-0.2	27	20	7	7.2
14	Dolphins	@	Jets	-11.6	-6.3	-8.3	21	22	-1	7.3
4	Lions	h	Chiefs	-5.2	9.2	-11.4	30	34	-4	7.4
1	Vikings	h	Falcons	5.4	0.0	8.4	28	12	16	7.6
5	Vikings	@	Giants	5.4	-7.9	10.3	28	10	18	7.7
5	Patriots	@	Redskins	10.4	-10.8	18.2	33	7	26	7.8
1	Texans	@	Saints	0.4	7.4	-10.0	28	30	-2	8.0
15	Bills	@	Steelers	2.2	0.3	-1.1	17	10	7	8.1
9	Cardinals	h	49ers	-3.2	11.0	-11.2	25	28	-3	8.2
3	Texans	@	Chargers	0.4	-1.3	-1.3	27	20	7	8.3
8	Saints	h	Cardinals	7.4	-3.2	13.6	31	9	22	8.4
6	Steelers	@	Chargers	0.3	-1.3	-1.4	24	17	7	8.4
3	Chiefs	h	Ravens	9.2	15.6	-3.4	33	28	5	8.4
2	49ers	@	Bengals	11.0	-7.5	15.5	41	17	24	8.5
12	Seahawks	@	Eagles	2.7	0.2	-0.5	17	9	8	8.5
5	Raiders	N	Bears	-6.7	-1.1	-5.7	24	21	3	8.7
3	Bengals	@	Bills	-7.5	2.2	-12.7	17	21	-4	8.7
9	Ravens	h	Patriots	15.6	10.4	8.2	37	20	17	8.8
9	Cowboys	@	Giants	5.3	-7.9	10.2	37	18	19	8.8
2	Jaguars	@	Texans	-6.5	0.4	-9.9	12	13	-1	8.9
1	Redskins	@	Eagles	-10.8	0.2	-14.0	27	32	-5	9.0
12	Titans	h	Jaguars	3.4	-6.5	12.9	42	20	22	9.1
16	Saints	@	Titans	7.4	3.4	0.9	38	28	10	9.1
15	Texans	@	Titans	0.4	3.4	-6.1	24	21	3	9.1
6	49ers	@	Rams	11.0	4.1	3.9	20	7	13	9.1
8	Redskins	@	Vikings	-10.8	5.4	-19.2	9	19	-10	9.2
3	Bears	@	Redskins	-1.1	-10.8	6.7	31	15	16	9.3
15	Giants	h	Dolphins	-7.9	-11.6	6.7	36	20	16	9.3
5	Steelers	h	Ravens	0.3	15.6	-12.3	23	26	-3	9.3
4	Jaguars	@	Broncos	-6.5	-2.1	-7.4	26	24	2	9.4
16	Jets	h	Steelers	-6.3	0.3	-3.6	16	10	6	9.6
1	Raiders	h	Broncos	-6.7	-2.1	-1.6	24	16	8	9.6
17	Falcons	@	Buccaneers	0.0	0.6	-3.6	28	22	6	9.6
3	Steelers	@	49ers	0.3	11.0	-13.7	20	24	-4	9.7
12	Bills	h	Broncos	2.2	-2.1	7.3	20	3	17	9.7
7	Redskins	h	49ers	-10.8	11.0	-18.8	0	9	-9	9.8
6	Vikings	h	Eagles	5.4	0.2	8.2	38	20	18	9.8
14	Falcons	h	Panthers	0.0	-7.2	10.1	40	20	20	9.9
13	Packers	@	Giants	3.2	-7.9	8.1	31	13	18	9.9
16	Eagles	h	Cowboys	0.2	5.3	-2.0	17	9	8	10.0
2	Colts	@	Titans	-1.8	3.4	-8.3	19	17	2	10.3
9	Dolphins	h	Jets	-11.6	-6.3	-2.3	26	18	8	10.3
14	Bears	h	Cowboys	-1.1	5.3	-3.3	31	24	7	10.3
6	Lions	@	Packers	-5.2	3.2	-11.4	22	23	-1	10.4
6	Jets	h	Cowboys	-6.3	5.3	-8.6	24	22	2	10.6
5	Broncos	@	Chargers	-2.1	-1.3	-3.8	20	13	7	10.8
8	Jaguars	h	Jets	-6.5	-6.3	2.8	29	15	14	11.2
14	Chiefs	@	Patriots	9.2	10.4	-4.2	23	16	7	11.2
5	Bills	@	Titans	2.2	3.4	-4.3	14	7	7	11.3
17	Bears	@	Vikings	-1.1	5.4	-9.5	21	19	2	11.5
3	Lions	@	Eagles	-5.2	0.2	-8.5	27	24	3	11.5
14	Rams	h	Seahawks	4.1	2.7	4.4	28	12	16	11.6
13	Titans	@	Colts	3.4	-1.8	2.3	31	17	14	11.7
17	Eagles	@	Giants	0.2	-7.9	5.1	34	17	17	11.9
17	Cowboys	h	Redskins	5.3	-10.8	19.1	47	16	31	11.9
14	Redskins	@	Packers	-10.8	3.2	-17.0	15	20	-5	12.0
7	Jaguars	@	Bengals	-6.5	-7.5	-2.0	27	17	10	12.0
5	49ers	h	Browns	11.0	-1.9	15.9	31	3	28	12.1
13	Chiefs	h	Raiders	9.2	-6.7	18.9	40	9	31	12.1
1	Bengals	@	Seahawks	-7.5	2.7	-13.2	20	21	-1	12.2
15	Cardinals	h	Browns	-3.2	-1.9	1.7	38	24	14	12.3
11	Colts	h	Jaguars	-1.8	-6.5	7.7	33	13	20	12.3
3	Giants	@	Buccaneers	-7.9	0.6	-11.5	32	31	1	12.5
17	Bengals	h	Browns	-7.5	-1.9	-2.6	33	23	10	12.6
4	Chargers	@	Dolphins	-1.3	-11.6	7.3	30	10	20	12.7
13	Buccaneers	@	Jaguars	0.6	-6.5	4.1	28	11	17	12.9
4	Eagles	@	Packers	0.2	3.2	-5.9	34	27	7	12.9
13	Texans	h	Patriots	0.4	10.4	-7.0	28	22	6	13.0
11	Browns	h	Steelers	-1.9	0.3	0.8	21	7	14	13.2
11	Saints	@	Buccaneers	7.4	0.6	3.8	34	17	17	13.2
4	Steelers	h	Bengals	0.3	-7.5	10.8	27	3	24	13.2
4	Bears	h	Vikings	-1.1	5.4	-3.5	16	6	10	13.5
4	Titans	@	Falcons	3.4	0.0	0.5	24	10	14	13.5
14	Titans	@	Raiders	3.4	-6.7	7.2	42	21	21	13.8
4	Seahawks	@	Cardinals	2.7	-3.2	2.9	27	10	17	14.1
13	Bengals	h	Jets	-7.5	-6.3	1.8	22	6	16	14.2
10	Seahawks	@	49ers	2.7	11.0	-11.3	27	24	3	14.3
12	Panthers	@	Saints	-7.2	7.4	-17.5	31	34	-3	14.5
13	Redskins	@	Panthers	-10.8	-7.2	-6.6	29	21	8	14.6
15	Saints	h	Colts	7.4	-1.8	12.2	34	7	27	14.8
13	Dolphins	h	Eagles	-11.6	0.2	-8.8	37	31	6	14.8
4	Raiders	@	Colts	-6.7	-1.8	-7.9	31	24	7	14.9
4	Giants	h	Redskins	-7.9	-10.8	5.9	24	3	21	15.1
5	Packers	@	Cowboys	3.2	5.3	-5.1	34	24	10	15.1
12	Buccaneers	@	Falcons	0.6	0.0	-2.4	35	22	13	15.4
16	Raiders	@	Chargers	-6.7	-1.3	-8.4	24	17	7	15.4
5	Eagles	h	Jets	0.2	-6.3	9.5	31	6	25	15.5
11	Jets	@	Redskins	-6.3	-10.8	1.5	34	17	17	15.5
7	Chiefs	@	Broncos	9.2	-2.1	8.3	30	6	24	15.7
16	Chiefs	@	Bears	9.2	-1.1	7.2	26	3	23	15.8
11	Ravens	h	Texans	15.6	0.4	18.2	41	7	34	15.8
2	Cardinals	@	Ravens	-3.2	15.6	-21.8	17	23	-6	15.8
10	Ravens	@	Bengals	15.6	-7.5	20.1	49	13	36	15.9
8	Packers	@	Chiefs	3.2	9.2	-9.0	31	24	7	16.0
9	Texans	N	Jaguars	0.4	-6.5	6.9	26	3	23	16.1
9	Chargers	h	Packers	-1.3	3.2	-1.5	26	11	15	16.5
4	Panthers	@	Texans	-7.2	0.4	-10.5	16	10	6	16.5
10	Dolphins	@	Colts	-11.6	-1.8	-12.8	16	12	4	16.8
8	49ers	h	Panthers	11.0	-7.2	21.2	51	13	38	16.8
1	Patriots	h	Steelers	10.4	0.3	13.1	33	3	30	16.9
13	Bills	@	Cowboys	2.2	5.3	-6.1	26	15	11	17.1
5	Texans	h	Falcons	0.4	0.0	3.4	53	32	21	17.6
9	Panthers	h	Titans	-7.2	3.4	-7.6	30	20	10	17.6
15	Buccaneers	@	Lions	0.6	-5.2	2.8	38	17	21	18.2
12	49ers	h	Packers	11.0	3.2	10.8	37	8	29	18.2
16	Packers	@	Vikings	3.2	5.4	-5.2	23	10	13	18.2
2	Rams	h	Saints	4.1	7.4	-0.3	27	9	18	18.3
17	Jets	@	Bills	-6.3	2.2	-11.5	13	6	7	18.5
6	Broncos	h	Titans	-2.1	3.4	-2.6	16	0	16	18.6
2	Browns	@	Jets	-1.9	-6.3	1.4	23	3	20	18.6
6	Panthers	N	Buccaneers	-7.2	0.6	-7.8	37	26	11	18.8
6	Texans	@	Chiefs	0.4	9.2	-11.8	31	24	7	18.8
15	Cowboys	h	Rams	5.3	4.1	4.2	44	21	23	18.8
7	Cowboys	h	Eagles	5.3	0.2	8.0	37	10	27	19.0
7	Patriots	@	Jets	10.4	-6.3	13.7	33	0	33	19.3
14	Broncos	@	Texans	-2.1	0.4	-5.5	38	24	14	19.5
17	Jaguars	h	Colts	-6.5	-1.8	-1.7	38	20	18	19.7
3	Jaguars	h	Titans	-6.5	3.4	-6.9	20	7	13	19.9
5	Colts	@	Chiefs	-1.8	9.2	-14.0	19	13	6	20.0
6	Bengals	@	Ravens	-7.5	15.6	-26.1	17	23	-6	20.1
17	Saints	@	Panthers	7.4	-7.2	11.5	42	10	32	20.5
17	Titans	@	Texans	3.4	0.4	0.1	35	14	21	20.9
15	Falcons	@	49ers	0.0	11.0	-14.0	29	22	7	21.0
4	Buccaneers	@	Rams	0.6	4.1	-6.5	55	40	15	21.5
11	Falcons	@	Panthers	0.0	-7.2	4.1	29	3	26	21.9
13	Rams	@	Cardinals	4.1	-3.2	4.3	34	7	27	22.7
8	Eagles	@	Bills	0.2	2.2	-4.9	31	13	18	22.9
16	Cardinals	@	Seahawks	-3.2	2.7	-8.9	27	13	14	22.9
16	Colts	h	Panthers	-1.8	-7.2	8.4	38	6	32	23.6
2	Patriots	@	Dolphins	10.4	-11.6	19.0	43	0	43	24.0
1	Ravens	@	Dolphins	15.6	-11.6	24.2	59	10	49	24.8
3	Panthers	@	Cardinals	-7.2	-3.2	-7.0	38	20	18	25.0
15	Vikings	@	Chargers	5.4	-1.3	3.7	39	10	29	25.3
7	Rams	@	Falcons	4.1	0.0	1.1	37	10	27	25.9
10	Falcons	@	Saints	0.0	7.4	-10.4	26	9	17	27.4
12	Jets	h	Raiders	-6.3	-6.7	3.4	34	3	31	27.6
1	Titans	@	Browns	3.4	-1.9	2.4	43	13	30	27.6
17	Dolphins	@	Patriots	-11.6	10.4	-25.0	27	24	3	28.0
12	Ravens	@	Rams	15.6	4.1	8.5	45	6	39	30.5
14	Chargers	@	Jaguars	-1.3	-6.5	2.2	45	10	35	32.8
4	Browns	@	Ravens	-1.9	15.6	-20.5	40	25	15	35.5

The Panthers were the most oddball team of the year. Carolina had five games where it underachieved by over two touchdowns (losses to the Colts, Falcons, Saints, 49ers, and Redskins), and also five games where it overachieved by at least two touchdowns (wins over the Cardinals, Bucs, Titans, and Texans, and a 34-31 loss in New Orleans). Meanwhile, the Lions were the most predictable: just one game was off by more than two touchdowns (a 38-17 loss at home to Tampa Bay). In fact, 12 of Detroit’s 16 games came within 6 points of the expected margin.

What stands out to you?

Tagged as: SRS

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