The low point of Baltimore’s brilliant season came at the hands of… Cleveland?
At the time, this moved the Browns into first place in the AFC North, as Baltimore and Cleveland were both 2-2.
Since then, Baltimore went 12-0, while Cleveland went 4-8. In retrospect, that game is really, really strange.
Every year, I like to examine the least-conforming games of the season. I do this by generating each team’s Simple Rating System rating — which is just points differential per game adjusted by opponent and home field. Note that I am not using SRS ratings at the time of the game, but SRS ratings as of the end of the season. Baltimore finished the season with a 15.6 average margin of victory against a perfectly average schedule; therefore the Ravens SRS rating was +15.6. Cleveland in 2019 had a -3.7 average margin of victory against a touch schedule (+1.7); therefore, the Browns finished with a -1.9 SRS rating. The beauty of the SRS is each point represents a point above or below average, and you can use the SRS ratings to predict games.
So when the Ravens (+15.6) host the Browns (-1.9), giving 3 points for home field, we would predict that Baltimore would win by 20.5 points. And when Baltimore travels to Cleveland, we would predict Baltimore to win by 14.5 points. In the latter case, that was nearly a perfect prediction: the Ravens won in Cleveland 31-15. In the former case, though, it was off by 35.5 points! That makes it the least-conforming game of 2019.
The table below shows the 2019 SRS ratings:
The table below shows the results of every game this season, along with the Simple Rating System grades for each team and its opponent and the expected and actual margin of victory for the game. The final column shows how non-conforming each game was.
The Panthers were the most oddball team of the year. Carolina had five games where it underachieved by over two touchdowns (losses to the Colts, Falcons, Saints, 49ers, and Redskins), and also five games where it overachieved by at least two touchdowns (wins over the Cardinals, Bucs, Titans, and Texans, and a 34-31 loss in New Orleans). Meanwhile, the Lions were the most predictable: just one game was off by more than two touchdowns (a 38-17 loss at home to Tampa Bay). In fact, 12 of Detroit’s 16 games came within 6 points of the expected margin.
What stands out to you?
