The Bills/Vikings game today was supposed to be a blowout. Minnesota was favored by 16.5 points, which made a lot of sense: the Vikings are one of the best teams in the league, while Buffalo ranked 31st in scoring (11.5 points/game) and scoring defense (39.0) through two weeks.

Since 1978, there have been 67 games where a team was favored by more than 14 points, and a team won by more than 14 points. Today was the 67th such game, but it was the first where the winning team was the underdog. That’s right: Buffalo pulled the massive upset, winning 27-6 (and leading 27-0 for over 30 minutes until a late Vikings touchdown).

So yes, this is the first time in history (well, since at least 1978) a team has won by 15+ points while being an underdog of 15+ points. The graph below shows all games since 1978 where a team was an underdog of 14+ points. The point spread is on the X-Axis (and remember, an underdog of 16.5 points would be listed at +16.5). On the Y-Axis is the final points differential. As you would expect, much of data is bunched in the bottom right quadrant of the graph — this indicates a large positive point spread on the X-Axis and a large negative points differential on the Y-Axis.  But the Bills/Vikings game was the big outlier, at +16.5, +21.

There have only been three other games since 1978 where a team was a two touchdown underdog and won by two touchdowns.

• In 2002, the expansion Texans and Steelers had one of the flukiest games in NFL history. Houston was a 14-point underdog, and the Steelers beat Houston up and down the field. Pittsburgh had 24 first downs to just 3(!) for Houston, and outgained the Texans 422-47. But the Steelers had 5 turnovers and couldn’t convert in the red zone, while Houston scored three long return touchdowns to pull off a stunner, 24-6.

• In 1994, the Chiefs were 14.5 point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. Kansas City lost the turnover battle, 3-0, failed twice on 4th-and-long in no man’s land, and the Rams dominated on the ground (Jerome Bettis had 132 yards wearing this uniform) while Flipper Anderson caught a 72-yard touchdown. The LA defense dominated Joe Montana and Marcus Allen to pull off a stunning 16-0 win.

• In 1988, Montana was at it again. The eventual Super Bowl champion 49ers were 14 point favorites against the Falcons. But Atlanta pulled off the upset as Gerald Riggs produced 179 yards of scrimmage, the 49ers threw four interceptions (including one pick six), and the Falcons scored 3 TDs in the final 7 minutes of the first half to control the game. Atlanta ultimately won, 34-17.

Finally, one update today courtesy of Adam Schefter:

Why was Atlanta favored by so much in that game? Well, the Falcons entered having won 6 of their previous 7 games, while the Cardinals had won just one of their previous ten games, and most importantly, were without QB Jim Hart. Playing with backup QB Gary Keithley, the Cardinals fell behind 10-0 early after a pick six, and St. Louis responded by taking the air out of the ball the rest of the way. The Falcons rushed 60 times for 243 yards and 1 touchdown, while overwhelming the Falcons passing game, limiting Atlanta to just 120 yards and forcing 5 turnovers.

Buffalo winning in a blowout is obviously a shocking result — arguably one of the most shocking results in NFL history. There have been just six other times where a team won despite being an underdog of more than 16 points: Falcons/Cardinals game referenced above, the Jets against the Colts in Super Bowl III, the Colts against the Patriots in 1978, the Colts against the Bills in 1992, the Jets against those same Bills one week later (that great Buffalo team was known to run hot and cold), and the Redskins against the Cowboys in 1995. And other than Atlanta/St. Louis, none of those games were blowouts the way the Bills/Vikings game was today.

And while the final numbers are pretty even, they reflect a lot of garbage time. When Buffalo led 27-0 at halftime, the Bills had a first down edge of 13-2 and had 233 yards to Minnesota’s 46 yards. Buffalo’s first five drives ended in three touchdowns and two field goals, while Minnesota’s first five drives ended with two fumbles, three punts, and one first down. It was a total bludgeoning by one team over the other… just like we expected.