The Buffalo Bills are still in the playoff hunt despite not being a very good team. The Bills have been outscored by 63 points so far this year, but have an 8-7 record. They’ve lost two games by 30+ points and two more by 20+ points, but a 5-2 record in one-score games has Buffalo still in the playoff hunt (the Bills are in with a win in week 17 and either a Ravens loss or losses by both the Titans and Chargers).
The Carolina Panthers are 8-1 in one-score games, the best record in the NFL. Carolina may be a very good team, but the Panthers are just 3-3 in games decided by more than 8 points. Carolina has a Pythagenpat winning percentage of 0.592, which is more in line with a 9-6 team than an 11-4 team.
The table below shows the Pythagenpat winning percentages for each team this season. The Bills and Panthers have exceeded “expectations” by the largest amount this year when it comes to actual winning percentage vs. Pythagenpat winning percentage. The biggest underachievers? The Browns, Bucs, Jaguars, and Chargers.
| Rk | Tm | G | W | L | W-L% | PF | PA | Pyth | Diff | Rec in 1-score Gms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 280 | 343 | 0.374 | 0.160 | 5-2 |
| 2 | CAR | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.733 | 353 | 305 | 0.592 | 0.141 | 8-1 |
| 3 | PIT | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.800 | 378 | 284 | 0.674 | 0.126 | 7-2 |
| 4 | ARI | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | 269 | 337 | 0.360 | 0.106 | 5-2 |
| 5 | MIA | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0.400 | 265 | 371 | 0.298 | 0.102 | 5-2 |
| 6 | PHI | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0.857 | 438 | 279 | 0.759 | 0.098 | 5-1 |
| 7 | TEN | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 319 | 346 | 0.448 | 0.085 | 5-4 |
| 8 | MIN | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.800 | 359 | 242 | 0.732 | 0.068 | 5-2 |
| 9 | NWE | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.800 | 432 | 290 | 0.734 | 0.066 | 5-2 |
| 10 | ATL | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.600 | 331 | 305 | 0.552 | 0.048 | 6-4 |
| 11 | GNB | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | 309 | 349 | 0.423 | 0.044 | 6-2 |
| 12 | CIN | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0.400 | 259 | 322 | 0.365 | 0.035 | 3-4 |
| 13 | WAS | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0.467 | 332 | 370 | 0.431 | 0.035 | 4-2 |
| 14 | SEA | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.600 | 342 | 306 | 0.570 | 0.030 | 4-5 |
| 15 | OAK | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0.429 | 281 | 324 | 0.410 | 0.018 | 4-3 |
| 16 | DET | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 375 | 365 | 0.517 | 0.016 | 3-4 |
| 17 | NOR | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.733 | 424 | 295 | 0.716 | 0.017 | 2-2 |
| 18 | DEN | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0.333 | 265 | 355 | 0.322 | 0.011 | 2-2 |
| 19 | DAL | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 348 | 332 | 0.530 | 0.003 | 1-2 |
| 20 | IND | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0.200 | 241 | 391 | 0.226 | -0.026 | 3-6 |
| 21 | SFO | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0.333 | 297 | 370 | 0.364 | -0.030 | 2-5 |
| 22 | LAR | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.733 | 465 | 295 | 0.761 | -0.028 | 4-3 |
| 23 | KAN | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.600 | 388 | 315 | 0.630 | -0.030 | 2-5 |
| 24 | NYJ | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0.333 | 292 | 356 | 0.376 | -0.043 | 3-6 |
| 25 | CHI | 15 | 5 | 10 | 0.333 | 254 | 297 | 0.402 | -0.068 | 2-6 |
| 26 | NYG | 15 | 2 | 13 | 0.133 | 228 | 378 | 0.216 | -0.083 | 1-5 |
| 27 | HOU | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0.267 | 325 | 414 | 0.351 | -0.084 | 1-5 |
| 28 | BAL | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0.600 | 368 | 272 | 0.684 | -0.084 | 2-4 |
| 29 | LAC | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 325 | 262 | 0.634 | -0.101 | 3-5 |
| 30 | JAX | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0.667 | 407 | 253 | 0.771 | -0.104 | 2-2 |
| 31 | TAM | 15 | 4 | 11 | 0.267 | 304 | 358 | 0.397 | -0.131 | 2-7 |
| 32 | CLE | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0.000 | 210 | 382 | 0.179 | -0.179 | 0-5 |
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