Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System:

Rk	Team	W	L	Talent	PWAG	Off	Def	SRS	wpa_loc	wpa_veg	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4ot
1	Chicago Bears	7	1	0.658	67.7%	6.0	-6.0	12.0	0.000	0.922	0.802	-0.349	0.458	1.167
2	San Francisco 49ers	6	2	0.605	62.3%	0.3	-11.5	11.7	0.000	1.235	0.088	0.189	0.576	-0.087
3	New England Patriots	5	3	0.553	66.7%	9.6	-1.0	10.7	-0.067	1.408	0.712	0.304	0.368	-1.724
4	Houston Texans	7	1	0.658	64.1%	4.1	-5.6	9.7	0.135	1.648	0.074	0.780	0.254	0.110
5	Denver Broncos	5	3	0.553	50.1%	6.0	-3.3	9.3	0.000	0.213	-0.398	-0.604	0.208	1.581
6	New York Giants	6	3	0.575	60.4%	7.8	-0.6	8.4	0.067	0.528	0.252	0.450	-0.207	0.410
7	Green Bay Packers	6	3	0.575	66.0%	6.6	-0.6	7.2	0.067	1.431	0.756	0.011	-0.463	-0.302
8	Atlanta Falcons	8	0	0.711	75.4%	3.8	-3.2	7.1	0.000	0.688	0.735	0.484	0.418	1.675
9	Seattle Seahawks	5	4	0.525	50.1%	-1.2	-6.1	4.9	-0.067	-0.292	0.770	-0.424	0.151	0.362
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4	0.500	48.4%	4.3	0.6	3.7	0.000	-0.554	0.831	-0.220	1.095	-1.153
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	3	0.553	63.6%	-1.8	-4.0	2.2	-0.135	0.625	0.248	0.246	0.007	0.010
12	Dallas Cowboys	3	5	0.447	42.7%	-1.5	-3.6	2.1	-0.135	0.160	-0.322	-0.575	0.531	-0.658
13	Carolina Panthers	2	6	0.395	31.6%	-2.6	-3.8	1.2	0.000	-0.439	-0.766	0.803	0.153	-1.751
14	Miami Dolphins	4	4	0.500	46.8%	-2.4	-3.4	1.0	-0.135	-0.371	0.158	1.201	0.945	-1.799
15	Detroit Lions	4	4	0.500	49.6%	2.8	2.0	0.8	-0.135	0.335	-0.426	-0.728	-0.481	1.435
16	Baltimore Ravens	6	2	0.605	68.0%	1.4	1.5	-0.1	0.000	0.678	-0.117	0.429	-0.037	1.047
17	New Orleans Saints	3	5	0.447	53.8%	4.4	5.3	-0.9	0.000	0.425	-0.152	-0.350	-0.078	-0.846
18	Minnesota Vikings	5	4	0.525	44.9%	-0.1	0.9	-1.1	0.067	0.238	0.301	-0.344	-0.283	0.520
19	Washington Redskins	3	6	0.425	37.7%	1.8	3.0	-1.2	-0.067	-0.410	-0.221	0.328	1.173	-2.303
20	New York Jets	3	5	0.447	48.7%	0.1	1.8	-1.7	0.135	-0.642	-0.396	-0.278	-0.515	0.695
21	San Diego Chargers	4	4	0.500	51.2%	-3.3	-1.4	-1.9	0.000	0.538	0.639	0.274	0.319	-1.771
22	Arizona Cardinals	4	5	0.475	44.0%	-5.7	-3.2	-2.5	0.067	-0.935	-0.356	-0.125	-0.356	1.205
23	St Louis Rams	3	5	0.447	38.0%	-4.2	-1.4	-2.8	0.067	-1.223	-0.124	0.027	-0.295	0.548
24	Cincinnati Bengals	3	5	0.447	41.3%	1.2	6.3	-5.1	0.000	-0.044	0.659	0.152	-1.164	-0.604
25	Philadelphia Eagles	3	5	0.447	47.5%	-6.1	-0.6	-5.5	0.000	0.452	-1.300	-0.586	0.675	-0.241
26	Indianapolis Colts	5	3	0.553	51.3%	-4.1	1.7	-5.8	0.135	-0.812	0.623	-0.797	0.339	1.512
27	Cleveland Browns	2	7	0.375	31.5%	-6.8	0.4	-7.2	0.067	-1.406	-0.514	-0.701	0.163	-0.109
28	Oakland Raiders	3	5	0.447	45.1%	-0.3	7.3	-7.5	0.000	-0.298	-0.194	0.182	-1.958	1.268
29	Buffalo Bills	3	5	0.447	38.4%	-0.2	8.6	-8.8	-0.135	-0.475	0.191	0.115	0.035	-0.731
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	7	0.342	32.8%	-9.1	2.6	-11.7	0.000	-1.202	-0.242	-0.449	-0.187	-0.921
31	Tennessee Titans	3	6	0.425	41.6%	-2.0	10.2	-12.1	0.067	-1.401	-0.979	0.688	-0.705	0.830
32	Kansas City Chiefs	1	7	0.342	36.9%	-8.8	6.3	-15.0	0.000	-1.021	-1.332	-0.132	-1.140	0.626

KEY:
Talent – Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11)
PWAG – Probability of Winning Any Game
Off – Offensive SRS (positive = better)
Def – Defensive SRS (negative = better)
SRS – Simple Rating System (Off + Def)
wpa_loc – Win Probability Added from location of games
wpa_veg – Win Probability Added from Vegas lines
wpa_1st – Win Probability Added in 1st quarter
wpa_2nd – Win Probability Added in 2nd quarter
wpa_3rd – Win Probability Added in 3rd quarter
wpa_4ot – Win Probability Added in 4th qtr/overtime

In this post by Neil, he provided a formula to predict each team’s likelihood of winning a game based on the Vegas point spread. With the help of the SRS, we can come up with a projected point spread for each game, and therefore figure out which team is most likely to give the Falcons their first loss.

The table below shows the SRS rating for Atlanta and each of their remaining opponents, along with the projected point spread in the game (based on the difference between the two SRS scores and home field) and the concomitant projected win probability. Note that in the Dallas game, the projected line is Atlanta -8.6, which would yield a 73.2% win probability; since the actual line is Atlanta -4, for the purposes of that game, I will be using the real line and not the projected one.

As you can see, the Falcons are projected to be a favorite in every remaining game, with the Giants game looming as the most difficult challenge. The probability of Atlanta winning each of their remaining 9 games is only 2.4%.

But figuring out which team is most likely to be the first to defeat the Falcons is a trickier question. The Cowboys are the obvious pick, in part because they’re up first and in part because they’re one of the most challenging remaining opponents for the Falcons. What are the odds that the Giants become the first team to knock off the Falcons, like they did to the Patriots in ’07 and the Broncos in ’98? For that to happen, the Giants would need to beat Atlanta (51.4%) plus the Falcons would need to beat Dallas, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and New Orleans twice before their game with New York. The probability of Atlanta winning all of those games is just 10.2%, so there is only a 1-in-20 chance that New York performs its giant-killer act again.

To calculate the odds of the opponent in each week being “the team” to knock off the Falcons, we simply have to perform the same math. Therefore, the table below shows the likelihood of Atlanta first losing (in each week) to each team:

Even though they’re not favored to win the game, since we can’t pick “the field”, the Cowboys are the team most likely to ruin the Falcons’ perfect season. As of today, New Orleans is next with a 20.6% chance thanks to two bites at the apple; meanwhile, the Falcons are more likely to go undefeated than they are to go 14-0 only to have the Lions ruin perfection.

In Tuesday’s post, I outlined a method of regressing a team’s record to the mean to estimate its “true winning percentage talent” (the trick is to add eleven games of .500 ball to their record, at any point in the season). In the comments, FP reader Dave wondered if we could incorporate last year’s true WPct talent into our talent assessment for this season, so I thought I’d run a quick regression to look at that.

My dataset was simply every game from 2003-2012 (including Monday night’s game). For each game, I recorded:

• Whether the game was a win, loss, or tie for the team in question. Wins got you a “1”, ties a “0.5”, losses a “0”.
• The team’s WPct talent estimate going into the game. So in the first game of the season, that’s (0+5.5)/(0+11)=0.500 for everybody; meanwhile, for an 11-4 team going into the final game of the season, it’s (11+5.5)/(15+11)=0.635.
• The team’s WPct talent estimate from the previous season.

I then set up a logistic regression to predict whether the game was a win or a loss based on the two WPct talent variables, this year and last year:

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-1.7686  -1.1489   0.1616   1.1429   1.7072  

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)    -2.6936     0.1982 -13.589  < 2e-16 ***
currenttalent   4.0297     0.3509  11.485  < 2e-16 ***
prevtalent      1.3571     0.2666   5.091 3.57e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 6712.4  on 4843  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 6508.0  on 4841  degrees of freedom
AIC: 6516.1

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

That means to predict your likelihood of winning any given game, you plug your WPct talent numbers from this season and last season into this formula:

WPct ~ 1 / (1 + EXP(2.693606 - 4.029688*(Current_Talent) - 1.357123*(Prev_Talent)))

It's important to note the size of the coefficients here -- the current WPct talent coefficient is three times as big as that of last season's WPct talent, so it has much more bearing on the prediction.

At any rate, here are the probabilities of winning any given game that this formula implies for this year's teams:

Year	Team	Games	Wins	Current_Talent	Prev_Talent	p(W_any_gm)
2012	atl	7	7	0.694	0.574	70.8%
2012	sfo	8	6	0.605	0.685	66.3%
2012	htx	7	6	0.639	0.574	65.9%
2012	gnb	8	5	0.553	0.759	63.7%
2012	chi	7	6	0.639	0.500	63.6%
2012	rav	7	5	0.583	0.648	63.1%
2012	nyg	8	6	0.605	0.537	61.6%
2012	nwe	8	5	0.553	0.685	61.4%
2012	pit	7	4	0.528	0.648	57.8%
2012	den	7	4	0.528	0.500	52.8%
2012	mia	7	4	0.528	0.426	50.3%
2012	crd	8	4	0.500	0.500	50.0%
2012	det	7	3	0.472	0.574	49.7%
2012	min	8	5	0.553	0.315	49.0%
2012	sea	8	4	0.500	0.463	48.7%
2012	cin	7	3	0.472	0.537	48.5%
2012	nor	7	2	0.417	0.685	47.9%
2012	dal	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	phi	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	rai	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	sdg	7	3	0.472	0.500	47.2%
2012	oti	8	3	0.447	0.537	46.0%
2012	clt	7	4	0.528	0.278	45.3%
2012	nyj	8	3	0.447	0.500	44.7%
2012	buf	7	3	0.472	0.426	44.7%
2012	tam	7	3	0.472	0.352	42.2%
2012	was	8	3	0.447	0.389	41.0%
2012	ram	8	3	0.447	0.278	37.4%
2012	kan	7	1	0.361	0.463	35.2%
2012	cle	8	2	0.395	0.352	34.9%
2012	car	7	1	0.361	0.426	34.1%
2012	jax	7	1	0.361	0.389	32.9%

Here are the current SRS Ratings, weighted for the recency of each game, along with each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA) so far this season:

Rank	Team	pfr_id	OSRS	OSOS	DSRS	DSOS	SRS	SOS	wpa_loc	wpa_vegas	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4th/ot
1	Chicago Bears	chi	7.9	1.0	8.0	-1.4	15.9	-0.4	-0.068	0.476	0.128	0.017	0.729	0.219
2	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	-0.2	-0.1	11.4	2.2	11.2	2.0	0.068	0.956	-0.066	0.059	0.566	-0.083
3	Houston Texans	htx	6.9	-1.0	4.2	-0.2	11.1	-1.2	0.068	1.419	-0.038	0.943	0.127	-0.020
4	Green Bay Packers	gnb	7.5	3.9	2.8	1.9	10.4	5.7	-0.068	0.926	0.596	-0.011	-0.446	-0.498
5	New York Giants	nyg	7.7	1.6	2.3	-1.6	10.0	-0.1	0.068	0.351	-0.060	0.278	0.029	0.834
6	Denver Broncos	den	5.2	-0.1	1.6	1.5	6.8	1.4	0.000	-0.060	-0.644	-0.816	0.183	1.338
7	New England Patriots	nwe	7.4	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	6.7	-0.7	-0.068	1.209	0.737	-0.017	0.363	-1.724
8	Seattle Seahawks	sea	-2.7	4.1	8.7	0.7	5.9	4.8	-0.068	-0.335	0.708	-0.588	-0.094	0.877
9	Atlanta Falcons	atl	2.5	-2.5	3.2	-1.2	5.7	-3.6	0.000	0.632	0.525	0.199	0.404	1.240
10	St Louis Rams	ram	-2.2	2.6	5.2	1.9	3.0	4.6	0.068	-1.039	-0.143	0.348	-0.283	0.550
11	Minnesota Vikings	min	-0.6	-1.3	3.2	-1.3	2.6	-2.6	0.068	0.211	0.835	-0.362	0.075	0.673
12	Washington Redskins	was	5.8	0.6	-3.2	1.9	2.6	2.5	-0.068	-0.381	0.172	0.697	1.235	-2.155
13	Dallas Cowboys	dal	-0.7	3.3	2.5	1.5	1.7	4.9	-0.136	0.365	-0.216	-0.359	0.051	0.295
14	Arizona Cardinals	crd	-4.6	1.2	5.0	-1.1	0.4	0.1	0.068	-0.452	-0.085	0.088	-0.331	1.212
15	Miami Dolphins	mia	-2.9	0.4	3.1	-0.9	0.2	-0.5	0.000	-0.549	-0.011	0.726	1.272	-1.436
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	-0.6	-2.7	0.8	0.5	0.1	-2.2	0.136	-0.531	0.583	-0.276	0.276	-1.188
17	New York Jets	nyj	0.0	0.6	0.1	1.0	0.1	1.5	0.068	-0.605	-0.080	-0.084	-0.495	0.695
18	Baltimore Ravens	rav	0.2	-0.8	-1.5	-1.1	-1.3	-1.9	0.068	0.536	-0.452	0.587	0.057	0.705
19	New Orleans Saints	nor	5.6	-0.7	-7.2	-0.4	-1.6	-1.2	0.000	0.552	-0.193	-0.476	-0.019	-0.864
20	Detroit Lions	det	4.9	2.9	-6.5	-2.4	-1.6	0.5	-0.068	0.249	-0.313	-0.833	-0.353	0.819
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	-2.5	-2.6	0.1	-1.3	-2.4	-3.9	-0.136	0.700	-0.027	0.290	0.163	-0.991
22	San Diego Chargers	sdg	-2.3	-3.8	-0.4	-0.1	-2.7	-3.9	0.000	0.202	0.753	0.214	0.294	-1.463
23	Carolina Panthers	car	-4.1	1.5	0.7	1.4	-3.4	2.9	0.136	-0.246	-0.833	0.124	-0.212	-0.968
24	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	-6.6	-0.6	2.5	0.3	-4.0	-0.4	0.000	0.466	-0.675	-0.296	0.729	-0.224
25	Indianapolis Colts	clt	-3.2	0.7	-3.1	-0.4	-6.3	0.3	0.136	-0.592	0.446	-0.291	-0.066	0.367
26	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	-0.9	-1.2	-5.7	-2.6	-6.7	-3.8	-0.068	0.009	0.762	0.304	-1.197	-0.311
27	Cleveland Browns	cle	-5.1	-3.0	-2.6	-0.1	-7.7	-3.1	-0.068	-1.153	-0.411	-0.800	0.161	-0.229
28	Oakland Raiders	rai	-3.4	0.6	-6.6	-1.5	-10.0	-0.9	0.000	-0.368	-0.390	0.014	-1.529	1.272
29	Buffalo Bills	buf	1.1	0.0	-11.1	-1.9	-10.0	-1.9	-0.068	-0.303	0.313	-0.034	0.180	-0.589
30	Tennessee Titans	oti	-3.0	-1.6	-8.4	2.1	-11.4	0.5	-0.068	-1.194	-0.596	0.449	-0.667	1.576
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	-8.8	-0.3	-3.3	1.0	-12.1	0.8	0.000	-0.647	-0.229	-0.144	-0.227	-0.754
32	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	-8.9	-2.6	-6.1	1.0	-15.0	-1.6	0.000	-0.802	-1.094	0.049	-0.977	0.823

Here are the current SRS Ratings, using the recency-weighted system I described on Monday:

Rank	Team	pfr_id	OFFSRS	OFFSOS	DEFSRS	DEFSOS	SRS	SOS
1	Chicago Bears	chi	7.5	0.2	7.6	-1.9	15.1	-1.8
2	New York Giants	nyg	9.9	3.1	2.8	-1.7	12.7	1.4
3	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	-0.1	0.1	10.9	2.0	10.8	2.1
4	New England Patriots	nwe	8.9	0.2	-0.3	-0.6	8.6	-0.4
5	Green Bay Packers	gnb	5.3	2.0	2.0	1.6	7.3	3.7
6	Seattle Seahawks	sea	-2.6	3.9	9.1	1.1	6.4	5.0
7	Houston Texans	htx	4.4	-1.3	1.5	-1.5	5.9	-2.8
8	Denver Broncos	den	4.5	-1.0	1.0	1.0	5.5	0.0
9	Atlanta Falcons	atl	1.8	-3.3	3.5	-0.7	5.2	-4.0
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	-0.6	-1.8	4.4	1.6	3.8	-0.2
11	St Louis Rams	ram	-2.8	2.2	6.6	1.5	3.8	3.7
12	Dallas Cowboys	dal	1.4	5.1	2.0	3.0	3.5	8.1
13	Baltimore Ravens	rav	1.4	-1.5	2.0	-0.9	3.4	-2.5
14	Arizona Cardinals	crd	-3.7	1.7	5.5	-0.8	1.8	0.8
15	Washington Redskins	was	7.4	1.0	-5.8	-0.2	1.6	0.8
16	Minnesota Vikings	min	-2.3	-3.7	2.9	-0.5	0.7	-4.2
17	Miami Dolphins	mia	-2.7	0.4	2.3	-1.5	-0.4	-1.1
18	Detroit Lions	det	5.3	2.9	-7.5	-3.5	-2.2	-0.6
19	Carolina Panthers	car	-2.3	2.7	-0.1	2.1	-2.3	4.8
20	New York Jets	nyj	-2.1	-0.5	-0.7	-0.2	-2.8	-0.8
21	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	-6.5	-0.7	3.7	1.6	-2.8	1.0
22	San Diego Chargers	sdg	-2.4	-4.0	-1.6	-1.1	-4.0	-5.1
23	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	0.2	-1.9	-4.9	-1.6	-4.7	-3.5
24	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	-2.1	-2.4	-2.7	-3.1	-4.8	-5.5
25	New Orleans Saints	nor	2.6	-2.3	-7.6	0.0	-5.0	-2.3
26	Cleveland Browns	cle	-2.1	-1.8	-3.1	1.3	-5.2	-0.5
27	Buffalo Bills	buf	1.0	1.3	-9.4	-1.0	-8.4	0.4
28	Indianapolis Colts	clt	-2.0	1.5	-6.7	-0.5	-8.6	1.0
29	Oakland Raiders	rai	-4.6	0.6	-6.2	0.0	-10.9	0.6
30	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	-7.4	-1.2	-6.6	0.6	-14.0	-0.7
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	-10.6	0.1	-3.4	1.7	-14.0	1.8
32	Tennessee Titans	oti	-5.1	-1.2	-8.9	1.7	-14.0	0.5

Also, just for fun, here’s how SRS sees this weekend’s games going (with the Vegas lines and over/unders for comparison’s sake):

game_id	year_id	game_date	home_team	srs	away_team	srs	vegas_line	vegas_o/u	srs_line	srs_o/u
201210220chi	2012	10/22/2012	chi	15.1	det	-2.2	-5.0	47.5	-19.6	58.9
201210210nyg	2012	10/21/2012	nyg	12.7	was	1.6	-6.5	50.0	-13.5	66.5
201210210buf	2012	10/21/2012	buf	-8.4	oti	-14.0	-3.0	46.5	-7.9	60.3
201210210tam	2012	10/21/2012	tam	3.8	nor	-5.0	3.0	49.5	-11.1	51.4
201210210min	2012	10/21/2012	min	0.7	crd	1.8	-6.0	40.5	-1.2	31.8
201210210clt	2012	10/21/2012	clt	-8.7	cle	-5.2	-3.0	45.0	1.2	51.9
201210210cin	2012	10/21/2012	cin	-4.7	pit	-4.8	2.5	46.0	-2.4	52.0
201210210nwe	2012	10/21/2012	nwe	8.6	nyj	-2.8	-10.5	47.5	-13.8	54.0
201210210ram	2012	10/21/2012	ram	3.8	gnb	7.3	5.5	44.5	1.2	40.1
201210210rai	2012	10/21/2012	rai	-10.9	jax	-14.0	-4.0	43.0	-5.5	40.7
201210210car	2012	10/21/2012	car	-2.4	dal	3.5	2.0	45.5	3.5	43.5
201210210htx	2012	10/21/2012	htx	5.9	rav	3.4	-6.0	48.0	-4.8	48.5

Here’s a quick Monday data dump… I ran the Simple Rating System (for offense and defense) on this year’s NFL results, but instead of weighing each game equally, I used Wayne Winston’s method of giving more weight to recent outcomes. Winston’s system is simply to give each game a weight of:

λ ^ (weeks ago)

In the NFL’s case, a λ of 0.95 works best for predicting future outcomes. The games from yesterday were (6 – week 6) = 0 weeks ago, so they get a weight of .95 ^ 0, or 1.00. Last week’s games were (6 – week 5) = 1 week ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 1 = 0.95; the opening-week games were (6 – week 1) = 5 weeks ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 5 = 0.77. See how it works?

Using this weighted form of SRS, here are the rankings going into tonight’s game (NOTE: For defenses, negative SRS numbers are better):

Rk	Team	Gms	W	L	Off	Def	SRS	wpa_loc	wpa_vegas	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4th/ot
1	Chicago Bears	5	4	1	7.6	-7.6	15.2	-0.07	0.48	0.13	0.02	0.73	0.22
2	New York Giants	6	4	2	9.8	-3.0	12.8	0.00	0.26	0.06	0.21	0.05	0.43
3	San Francisco 49ers	6	4	2	0.5	-10.4	10.9	0.00	0.80	-0.04	0.21	0.30	-0.28
4	New England Patriots	6	3	3	9.0	0.4	8.6	-0.14	1.00	0.62	0.00	0.27	-1.75
5	Green Bay Packers	6	3	3	4.9	-2.5	7.5	0.00	0.67	0.44	0.06	-0.64	-0.53
6	Seattle Seahawks	6	4	2	-2.0	-8.7	6.6	0.00	-0.20	0.68	-0.74	0.19	1.07
7	Houston Texans	6	5	1	4.6	-1.2	5.8	0.00	1.34	-0.19	0.76	0.12	-0.02
8	Atlanta Falcons	6	6	0	2.3	-3.2	5.4	0.00	0.61	0.52	0.20	0.41	1.25
9	Denver Broncos	5	2	3	2.5	-2.2	4.7	0.07	-0.13	-0.34	-0.63	0.12	0.41
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	2	3	-0.5	-4.5	4.0	0.07	-0.42	0.35	0.20	0.36	-1.06
11	St Louis Rams	6	3	3	-2.8	-6.7	3.9	0.00	-0.77	0.02	0.27	-0.10	0.58
12	Dallas Cowboys	5	2	3	1.4	-2.3	3.6	-0.07	0.23	-0.21	-0.18	-0.40	0.13
13	Baltimore Ravens	6	5	1	1.4	-2.1	3.5	0.14	0.65	-0.31	0.76	0.06	0.70
14	Arizona Cardinals	6	4	2	-3.8	-5.7	1.9	0.14	-0.36	0.08	0.10	-0.19	1.22
15	Washington Redskins	6	3	3	7.3	5.5	1.8	0.00	-0.15	0.01	0.75	1.15	-1.76
16	Minnesota Vikings	6	4	2	-2.3	-3.1	0.8	0.00	-0.01	0.71	-0.36	-0.01	0.67
17	Miami Dolphins	6	3	3	-2.8	-2.5	-0.3	0.00	-0.59	-0.01	0.74	1.29	-1.43
18	Detroit Lions	5	2	3	5.2	7.2	-2.0	-0.07	0.20	-0.31	-0.82	-0.33	0.83
19	Carolina Panthers	5	1	4	-2.5	-0.4	-2.2	0.07	-0.12	-0.84	-0.05	0.24	-0.80
20	Philadelphia Eagles	6	3	3	-6.5	-3.8	-2.7	0.00	0.52	-0.68	-0.31	0.70	-0.24
21	New York Jets	6	3	3	-2.3	0.5	-2.8	0.14	-0.40	0.04	-0.10	-0.41	0.73
22	San Diego Chargers	5	3	2	-3.3	-0.5	-2.8	-0.07	0.27	0.45	0.02	0.36	-0.53
23	Cincinnati Bengals	6	3	3	0.3	4.9	-4.6	-0.14	0.17	0.61	0.43	-1.21	0.14
24	New Orleans Saints	5	1	4	3.2	7.8	-4.6	0.07	0.39	0.05	-0.95	-0.08	-0.99
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	2	3	-2.0	2.8	-4.8	-0.07	0.54	0.13	0.16	0.18	-1.44
26	Cleveland Browns	6	1	5	-2.1	3.0	-5.0	0.00	-1.15	-0.21	-0.74	0.08	0.02
27	Buffalo Bills	6	3	3	0.9	9.1	-8.3	-0.14	-0.31	0.32	0.02	-0.14	0.25
28	Indianapolis Colts	5	2	3	-1.8	6.8	-8.6	0.07	-0.62	0.25	-0.35	0.02	0.13
29	Oakland Raiders	5	1	4	-4.2	6.6	-10.8	-0.07	-0.39	-0.24	0.30	-1.55	0.45
30	Kansas City Chiefs	6	1	5	-7.1	6.5	-13.6	0.00	-0.76	-1.11	0.05	-1.00	0.82
31	Tennessee Titans	6	2	4	-4.9	8.9	-13.8	0.00	-1.15	-0.61	0.39	-0.35	0.72
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	1	4	-10.7	3.3	-14.0	0.07	-0.60	-0.38	-0.44	-0.21	0.06

I also included a breakdown of each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA), so you can see where each team’s wins above/below average thus far have come from.

One thing I’d like to do more of here at Football Perspective is to point you in the direction of some great content you can find at other sites. You can scroll down and on the right side column I have a “Friends of FP” list, linking to great sites like Pro-Football-Reference.com, Footballguys.com, Smart Football, my old comrade Jason Lisk at The Big Lead, Football Outsiders, and Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats. In addition, I also frequent Bill Barnwell at Grantland, Mike Tanier at Sports on Earth, Scott Kacsmar, and Pro Football Focus. And yes, Matt Hinton, who also moonlights at CBS and Football Outsiders, remains the best college football writer out there. And then there are my tireless Footballguys co-Staffers like Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman, Jene Bramel, and Cecil Lammey, who somehow simultaneously never stop talking football and maintain a consistently excellent quality of production. There are more great writers out there — this is probably why I have always gotten distracted whenever I try to link to some of the excellent content out there.

But Greg Bedard has delivered a fascinating look into how Chip Kelly (and Paul Brown) have helped Bill Belichick further refine his incredible offense. The entire article is worth a read, and I won’t quote it all, but here are some particularly interesting points:

[continue reading…]

Over at the PFR Blog, we used to post Checkdowns from time to time, shorter posts that were often just data dumps. Every once in awhile a random question would come to mind and we usually had the database power to answer the question. So after spending a few minutes get our results, but there was little more to say. The question had been answered, but there wasn’t enough to write a full post (or we weren’t interested in analyzing the results any further). But why hide the results?

So today I’m bringing the Checkdowns category to Football Perspective. I was wondering how often a team defeated both eventual Super Bowl participants in the same season. There have been 42 Super Bowl champions since the merger (no team could have done this in the pre-merger era), and surprisingly, 16 teams have accomplished this feat. Most recently, the 2010 Patriots defeated both the Steelers and Packers (playing with Matt Flynn and not Aaron Rodgers). The table below lists all 16 teams, with linkable boxscores to the games in question. I’ve also shown the team’s overall record and winning percentage during the regular season. As always, all columns are sortable.

Team	Year	SB Winner	SB Loser	Win %	Record
NWE	2010	GNB 31-27	PIT 39-26	0.875	14-2-0
PHI	2008	PIT 15-6	ARI 48-20	0.594	9-6-1
NYG	2008	PIT 21-14	ARI 37-29	0.750	12-4-0
JAX	2005	PIT 23-17	SEA 26-14	0.750	12-4-0
PIT	2004	NWE 34-20	PHI 27-3	0.938	15-1-0
WAS	2000	BAL 10-3	NYG 16-6	0.500	8-8-0
TEN	2000	BAL 14-6	NYG 28-14	0.813	13-3-0
DAL	1996	GNB 21-6	NWE 12-6	0.625	10-6-0
MIA	1993	DAL 16-14	BUF 22-13	0.563	9-7-0
SEA	1986	NYG 17-12	DEN 41-16	0.625	10-6-0
MIA	1985	CHI 38-24	NWE 30-27	0.750	12-4-0
CLE	1981	SFO 15-12	CIN 20-17	0.313	5-11-0
SDG	1980	OAK 30-24	PHI 22-21	0.688	11-5-0
DAL	1980	OAK 19-13	PHI 35-27	0.750	12-4-0
SDG	1979	PIT 35-7	RAM 40-16	0.750	12-4-0
RAM	1978	PIT 10-7	DAL 27-14	0.750	12-4-0

While some of these teams were in the same division as a Super Bowl participant, none of them swept their division foe and also defeated the Super Bowl representative from the other conference.

Each team on the list has its own interesting story. The 1981 Browns won just 5 games, but managed to beat both the 49ers and Bengals that season. The Don Coryell–Dan Fouts Chargers appear on this list in consecutive years. In 1979, San Diego blew out Pittsburgh and Los Angeles and finished the year with the NFL’s best record. But in one of the most improbable upsets in playoff history, the Houston Oilers and shocked San Diego and won, 17-14. In 1980, San Diego went 11-5 and won close games over both the Raiders and Eagles. After defeating Buffalo in the division round of the playoffs, Oakland upset San Diego 34-27 in the AFC Championship Game en route to becoming the first wildcard team to win the Super Bowl.

What sticks out to you on the table?