Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8

[continue reading…]

In March, I wrote about the shrinking middle class of quarterbacks: most teams were either paying superstar dollars to a quarterback or going with a cheap player still on a rookie contract. In fact, at the time of the article, there were just 7 teams that didn’t clearly fit that category: the Redskins (who had been paying Alex Smith and have since drafted Dwayne Haskins), the Dolphins (who appeared to be tanking on the quarterback position), and then five teams truly stuck in no man’s land: the Titans and Bucs, who were using their 5th-year option on Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, and the Bengals (still hanging on to Andy Dalton), the Jaguars (traded for Nick Foles), and the Broncos (traded for Joe Flacco).

At the halfway mark of the season, I wanted to check in on the league’s passing offenses by looking at two variables: salary cap dollars allocated to quarterbacks and offensive Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. That is shown in the graph below.

Or, better yet, let’s redraw that graph. [continue reading…]

Previous Passing Stats:

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8

There were no truly awful passing performances in week 9 of this NFL season. The 28 teams combined for a 98.8 passer rating and averaged 6.72 ANY/A, but one of the benefits of doing this each week is that you tend to notice weekly outliers. And this week, there were no *awful* passing performances. In 5 of the first 8 weeks of the 2019 season, at least one team had a negative ANY/A. In two others, at least one team had an ANY/A below 1.00. Week 1 of the 2019 season was an outstanding passing week, as you may recall, and the Bucs had the lowest ANY/A of the week at 1.51.

Daniel Jones was bad on Monday Night Football, but not abnormally bad. He averaged only 3.7 net yards per pass, which is of course terrible, but he had 1 TD and 1 INT. It was the sort of bad game that nobody will remember, and it was the worst passing performance of the week.

By traditional passing stats, Gardner Minshew probably ranks last, since he threw 0 TDs and 2 INTs. But Minshew threw for 309 yards and averaged 6.0 net yards per attempt. An ugly game, sure, but not a completely inept one. Here’s the crazy part: other than Minshew, Ryan Tannehill (who had a mediocre but not bad game) was the only other player to throw more INTs than TDs in week 9! That’s because the entire NFL — yes, the entire NFL — had a 1.26% interception rate in week 9! This week broke the single-week NFL record for INT%, previously set in week 8 of 2016 (1.27%). This week also smashed the record for TD/INT ratio, at a whopping 3.91. The previous high was 3.54, also set in week 8 of 2016.

But while it was a very good passing week, but it also was one without a superstar performance, either (Russell Wilson fans, please don’t @ me; he was excellent, but he averaged “only” 7.5 net yards per attempt, which brings down his ANY/A). This was the first week all year where no team averaged 11.0 ANY/A; the 49ers led the way at 10.26 ANY/A, which normally could never lead the league. So things were bunched in week 9, which was probably an outlier, but still merits watching going forward. And keep in mind this happened with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff (along with the Bengals) all on their bye weeks.

Below are the week 9 passing stats: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7

[continue reading…]

It’s easy to forget that the 49ers were awful last season, going 4-12 and earning the second pick in the NFL Draft. To the extent you remember that San Francisco was bad last year, it’s probably because you see All-World rookie defensive end Nick Bosa dominating the league this season, and the 49ers drafted him with that second overall pick.

But otherwise, it’s hard to fathom that the dominant, 7-0 49ers, were actually terrible last year. Those 49ers allowed 27.2 points per game and scored 21.4 points per game, a difference of 5.8 points per game. This season, San Francisco is averaging 29.6 points per game and allowing just 11.0 through seven games, a difference of 18.6 points per game and an improvement of 24.4 net points per game.

That’s… a lot. In fact, it’s the third most in the NFL since 1950, trailing only the 2013 Chiefs (who added HC Andy Reid and ex-49ers QB Alex Smith in the offseason) and the 1999 Rams (who added QB Kurt Warner, RB Marshall Faulk, and WR Torry Holt in the offseason to form the GSOT offense).  San Francisco has been helped by having QB Jimmy Garoppolo back, of course, but the team has mostly been aided by a dominant defense.

The graph below shows the points differential for each team since 1950 on the X-Axis, and that team’s points differential through 7 games the next season on the Y-Axis.  I’ve colored in four of those dots: at -5.8, 21.6 are the ’98-99 Rams; at -5.8, 18.6 are the ’18-19 49ers.  Over to the left at -13.4, 12.6 are the 2012-13 Chiefs, and at the top of the chart are the 2018-2019 Patriots, who jumped from a +6.9 points differential to a +25.0 points differential through 7 games. [continue reading…]

Previous Passing Stats:

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7

Jared Goff was the star of week 8, with a strong tip of the hat to Cooper Kupp: playing in London, Goff threw 31 passes and gained 372 yards with 2 TDs and no interceptions and no sacks.

Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and Kyle Allen were the worst passers of the week. The second-year quarterbacks combined for 15 sacks and 6 interceptions, while combining for just 19 passing first downs on 82 dropbacks (23%).

The full week 8 passing stats below:

[continue reading…]

Typically, there is a very strong relationship between passing offense and team winning percentage. But over shorter samples, that doesn’t always hold up, and that’s been a noticeable trend so far this season.

The Patriots, 49ers, Falcons, and Chargers are all in the same tier of passing efficiency: not in the top ten, but slightly above league average. And yet New England and San Francisco are undefeated, while Atlanta and Los Angeles are 4-12. The graph below shows all 32 teams in the NFL and their statistics through 8 weeks (of course, this is prior to the Steelers/Dolphins MNF game tonight). The X-Axis shows each team’s offensive Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average relative to league average. The Chiefs, Vikings, and Seahawks are the top three teams in this metric so far this season. The Y-Axis shows winning percentage.

One thing you’ll notice is that the teams looked bunched together. The X-Axis runs from -5.5 to 5.5, and you’ll see why in a moment. [continue reading…]

Earlier this season, I looked at interceptions by win probability. Today I want to revisit that post and update the numbers through week 7 of the 2019 season.

All data comes from Ron Yurko’s scrapr github page (note: the win probability data is definitely a little bit buggy, with the win probability reversed on pick sixes. I manually fixed those, but I didn’t otherwise mess with the data. I won’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good, though, so let’s proceed).

The graph below shows how much each offense has lost on win probability on interceptions this year on the Y-Axis, and the amount of interceptions the offense has thrown on the X-Axis. The San Francisco 49ers stand out as a pretty interesting outlier here: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6

In week 7, the Bears lost by 11 points and the Dolphins lost by 10 points, but the games couldn’t have been more different. Game Scripts are useful in cases like this: the Saints beat Chicago 36-25 but had a Game Script of +7.7. New Orleans 26-10 after three quarters, and 36-10 with 4 minutes remaining before the Bears raced to score 15 meaningless points. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, the Bills won with a Game Script of just +0.5. Miami actually led 14-9 at halftime and at the end of the third quarter, and only led 24-21 with less than two minutes remaining. Buffalo scored a touchdown on Miami’s last minute onside kick attempt, giving Buffalo a 10-point win in a game that was very close throughout.

The table below shows the Game Scripts from week 7: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5

I had some bugs in my week 6 data that led to a lengthy delay when it comes to posting the week 6 Game Scripts. But better late than never, and for posterity’s sake, I am still posting the data.

This week feels like a long time ago, but a couple of the teams with the most extreme pass/run splits were off in week seven, so that makes this still somewhat topical. Tampa Bay went wildly pass-happy in a blowout loss to Carolina in London. Anytime a team throws 60+ times, or throws on over 80% of its plays, that’s going to be considered a very pass-heavy game, even in a blowout. Jameis Winston had a rough game with 5 interceptions and one lost fumble to go with 7 sacks, but it’s not as though the Tampa Bay ground game (14 for 42) was all that effective. Winston has been extremely boom or bust this year, with 0 games with a passer rating of between 50 and 100.

The Kansas City Chiefs have (or should I say, had) lots of reasons to be pass-happy. In game script-neutral situations, you can argue that Kansas City should be the most pass-happy team in the league. In week 6 against Houston, Patrick Mahomes played pretty well, even if below his own lofty standards. The Chiefs finished with just 11 rushing plays (including one kneel by Mahomes), the fewest in over five years by a team that actually led after three quarters! Of course, it didn’t help that Houston really bled the clock in the second half, limiting Kansas City to just three drives.

The most run-happy team of the week was the Pittsburgh Steelers, without accounting for Game Script, was the Steelers. With Mason Rudolph banged up, Pittsburgh turned to Devlin Hodges as the team’s starting quarterback. Pittsburgh ran an extremely ball-controlled offense: just two of Hodges’s completions were 6 or more yards down the field, and none were more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage. The ground game was moderately effective, picking up 9 first downs on 36 carries, but this was a game that swung on early turnovers. The final score does not reflect the Game Script very well in this one.

The full week 6 Game Scripts data, below: [continue reading…]

Aaron Rodgers had the best game of his career – by pure ANY/A standards – in week 7. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold had the worst game of his short career, an embarassing performance where the entire Jets team looked outmatched.

I’m short on time today, so here are the full passing results from week 7.

Like most weeks, the team with the passing edge won the game; if anything, this was a more extreme week in that regard.

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is having an outstanding season. Through 6 games, the former Stanford star has 923 yards from scrimmage, which represents 41% of Carolina’s 2,250 total yards. He has a huge lead in “percentage of team yards” over everyone else: Dalvin Cook, Le’Veon Bell, and Leonard Fournette all have just a hair over 1/3 of their team’s total yards.

Only two players in NFL history have picked up over 45% of their team’s total yards from scrimmage: O.J. Simpson in 1973 and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011.

The table below shows the top 100 seasons in NFL history in percentage of team yards from scrimmage. [continue reading…]

Last year at this time, I looked at which teams were spreading it around the most in their passing offenses. And this time last year, the Indianapolis Colts had the most diverse passing offense in the NFL. This season, that honor …. again belongs to the Colts.

T.Y. Hilton is the team’s leading receiver and has “only” 22% of the team’s receiving yards; Eric Ebron and and Zach Pascal are next on the team and neither has more than 13% of the team’s receiving yards. Indianapolis is the only team in the NFL where its top three leaders in receiving yards have less than half of the team’s receiving yards. The table below shows the Colts receivers; the final column is the square of the percentage of team’s receiving yards, which is how we calculate the concentration index. [continue reading…]

The Rams just traded a 2020 first round pick, a 2021 first round pick, and a 2021 fourth round pick for Jaguars All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

A few weeks ago, the Steelers traded a 2020 first round pick, a 2020 fifth round pick, and a 2021 sixth round pick to the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2020 fourth round pick, and a 2021 seventh round pick. In addition, the Texans traded for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills, along with a 2020 fourth round pick and 2021 sixth round pick from Miami for a 2020 first round pick, a 2021 first round pick, a 2021 second round pick, and Johnson Bademosi and Julie’n Davenport.

This came after an offseason where the Browns traded with the Giants for Odell Beckham and sent back to New York Jabrill Peppers, a 2019 1st round pick (#17, used on Dexter Lawrence) and 2019 third round pick (#95, Oshane Ximines).

That was the second blockbuster trade for a wide receiver in less than six months, after the Cowboys sent a 2019 1st round pick (which turned out to be the 27th pick and was used on Johnathan Abram) to the Raiders for WR Amari Cooper.

And, of course, the Cooper trade followed the blockbuster Khalil Mack trade, where Chicago tradeda  2019 first round pick (which turned out to be #24 and used on Josh Jacobs), a 2019 sixth round pick, a 2020 first round pick, and a 2020 third round pick to the Raiders for Mack, a 2020 second round pick, and a 2020 conditional fifth round pick.

It is the Mack trade that appeared to open the floodgates: Mack was the runner-up for the 2018 AP Defensive Player of the Year award, and was the star of a Bears defense that was the best in the NFL.  Similarly, the Cowboys trade for Cooper was widely (and rightly) panned at the time, but Cooper put on a dominant performance: in 10 games with Dallas, including the playoffs, he gained 838 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns.

The problem with the Mack and Cooper trades, however, wasn’t the player acquired but the cost.  In addition to significant draft capital, Chicago had to hand Mack an enormous contract, and the Cowboys are paying Cooper over $13M this year and will soon have to sign Cooper to a large deal, too.  Mack had played 4 years in Oakland, and Cooper 3, meaning their years on cheap, cost-controlled contracts were in Oakland.

The Browns/OBJ trade was a bit different: Cleveland will pay Beckham a little over $15M per year, but (1) there is no signing bonus, and therefore Cleveland can cut him at any time, and (2) he’s coming at a bit of a discount relative to his true value, since the Giants ate his signing bonus.   It’s not a cheap contract by any means, but I suspect Cleveland will be happier with his contract than Dallas will be with whatever they hand Cooper.

The Tunsil and Fitzpatrick trades felt crazy at the time, and that’s how this Rams/Ramsey one does, too.  Yes, Ramsey is young — he turns 25 years old next week — but he’s going to cost a lot of money.  Los Angeles handed out a record-breaking contract to its running back, its quarterback, and its defensive tackle, and L.A. will have to do the same with Ramsey, too.   If Ramsey was a free agent, and the Rams signed him to the richest contract in cornerback history, there are some who would criticize that move.  To give up two first round draft picks for the honor to do that is extremely risky. [continue reading…]

This was another rough week for passers, at least by 2019 standards. The most remarkable stat was the TD/INT ratio, which was just 35/32 in week six. The graph below shows the TD/INT ratio for each week since the start of the 2014 season; other than week 14 of 2016 (38 TDs, 36 INTs), this was the worst week of this period:

And if you weren’t watching the Falcons/Cardinals game, you probably thought week 6 was really ugly. Outside of that game, NFL teams threw for just 28 touchdowns across 26 teams, but the story of the week was in Arizona. Because once again, Matt Ryan in a losing effort is becoming a thing. Since the start of the 2018 season, Ryan has lost while averaging over 12.0 ANY/A and throwing for over 350 yards, lost while averaging over 11.0 ANY/A and throwing for over 400 yards, and now lost while averaging over 11.0 ANY/A and throwing for over 350 yards. Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been just 17 times when a quarterback has hit the 11.00 ANY/A and 350-yard thresholds; Ryan is 0-3 in these games, while the rest of the NFL is 14-0.

The reason Ryan lost, of course, was his defense, but some (much?) of the credit must go to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, too (and some of the rest of the blame should go on the missed extra point at the end of the game). The number one overall pick had the best game of his young career on Sunday, and finished with the third best passing performance of the week. The full week 6 passing stats are below: [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4

The Seahawks beat the Rams in week 5 by the smallest of margins, 30-29. Quarterback Russell Wilson was incredible, averaging 14.25 ANY/A against Los Angles on 24 dropbacks. Wilson also had 5 scrambles for 28 yards, two kneel downs, and one designed carry for six yards. The Seahawks also had 35 designed runs for players other than Wilson that picked up 135 yards.

That is, to put it bluntly, not the correct ratio. Giving Wilson 30 plays and running the ball 35 times with someone else is pretty silly, but it’s doubly bad in a close game where Wilson is playing like a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. Seattle trailed entering the 4th quarter, and while Wilson’s 8 carries make the stats a bit misleading, consider the following:

Seattle with 43 rush attempts on 67 plays, a 64% run ratio. That’s the second-highest run ratio of any game in the last 5 years where a team trailed entering the 4th quarter, behind a super run-heavy game by the Colts in the snow in Buffalo in 2017. Seattle finished with a negative Game Script and ran more than they passed — by a lot — in a game where Wilson was outstanding!

By way of reference, consider how the Colts had a super run-heavy game in week 5. Jacoby Brissett had 29 dropbacks and 6 runs (2 scrambles, 2 kneels, 2 designed runs), while Indianapolis runners besides Brissett had 39 rushes for 171 yards! That is a really run-heavy game, but keep in mind two things: Indianapolis had a slightly positive Game Script of +1.8, and Brissett wasn’t all that good, averaging 3.66 ANY/A! The Colts had the second most run-heavy game of the week, and were still less run-heavy than Seattle despite the better Game Script, the better rushing attack, and the much, much, much worse passing attack.

The full week 5 Game Scripts, below: [continue reading…]

Some fun with play by play data this morning. As you know, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Marcus Mariota are the only starting quarterbacks that have not thrown an interception so far this year. Going back to the 2019 regular season and playoffs, Mahomes has now gone 274 passes without throwing an interception, Wilson 201 passes, and Mariota 191 passes. The table below shows how long each quarterback in the NFL has gone without throwing an interception, as of week 5, 2019. I’ve also shown how many sacks that quarterback has taken during this streak, and their sack rate. [continue reading…]

Last December, I wrote that Marcus Mariota needs to throw more incomplete passes. At the time, Mariota had thrown just 71 incomplete passes all season, while also taking 35 sacks. That’s nearly a 2:1 ratio of incomplete passes to sacks! Over the rest of the season, he threw 32 incomplete passes and only took 7 sacks, and the Titans went 4-0.

Mariota is a frustrating quarterback to analyze because he seems so afraid of making mistakes. Last year, that manifested itself by taking a sack rather than throwing an incomplete pass. This year, Mariota is taking sacks and not throwing interceptions. Dating back to last season, Mariota has now thrown 191 straight passes without throwing an interception. But during that time, he’s taken 26 sacks, a 12% sack rate.

This season, the Titans have taken a sack on 13.5% of pass plays, the second-worst rate behind the hapless Jets (who have been playing a third string quarterback). Meanwhile, Tennessee is one of just three teams (Seattle, Kansas City) that has yet to throw an interception. Tennessee has picked up a 1st down on just 28.2% of passing plays this season (46 passing first downs, 141 pass attempts, 22 sacks), which ranks 27th so far in 2019. Avoiding interceptions is great, but that should be the product of good quarterback play and not the primary goal.

Along with the Jets, the Titans are the only team this season to punt on over half of their drives. Tennessee is the only team this year without a turnover, while all other teams have at least four. But the objective of an offense is to score, and Tennessee is joined by the Redskins and the three stepsisters of the AFC East in the bottom five of the NFL in percentage of drives that end in a score.

I don’t know if Mariota is ever going to take the leap and become a top quarterback, and the evidence so far suggests he won’t. But I do know that if he is going to take that leap, it’s going to be because he starts leading touchdown drives, and not because he doesn’t make mistakes.

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is pretty darn good when he isn’t being sacked. On Sunday against the Falcons, for just the second time in his career, Watson played a game without being sacked. And now both times, he has thrown 5 TDs in those games. He also has a 3-sack, 5 TD game, meaning he’s played more games where he’s thrown 5 TDs than he’s avoided any sacks.

Against Atlanta, the Texans punted on their opening drive. After that, Houston scored on its other 8 drives in the game, discarding end of half/game drives. And most of those drives were touchdowns, with all of them covering at least 59 yards. Houston went 10/13 on third down conversions, averaged nearly 9 yards per play, and looked dominant against an overmatched Falcons pass defense.

Watson stood out as by far the best passer of week 5, overshadowing strong performances from Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater. On the other side of things, Luke Falk and Baker Mayfield turned in two of the sorriest performances you’ll witness this season. Both finished with negative ANY/A, and the Jets and Browns combined for only 11 passing first downs.

The full week 5 passing numbers below:

As usual, the teams that won the passing battle won the game. But there were three notable outliers in week 5: the Steelers pass defense was great, but Pittsburgh still lost in overtime to Baltimore. Jacksonville won the passing battle against Carolina, but didn’t have Christian McCaffrey. And the Colts had a run-heavy and very efficient offense against the Chiefs, shutting down Kansas City enough times to steal the win.

What stands out to you?

That’s it.  That’s the article. The Jets are averaging 3.16 yards per play this year, which is embarrassing beyond belief.

Throug  Since 1970, the Jets are just the 8th team to average under 3.2 yards per play of offense through four games, and the first since 1978.

The graph below shows the yards per play gained by each NFL offense since 1970. As you can see, the Jets stick out on the bottom right.  The X-Axis shows teams by year, and the Y-Axis shows the yards per play gained by that offense. [continue reading…]

Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Patrick Mahomes have yet to throw an interception this season. Wilson has now started five games, with Mariota and Mahomes set to start their fifth games of the season on Sunday. Of the three, Mariota seems the least likely to put together any sort of long streak here. While the Titans quarterback is famous for his ability to take a sack at the first sign of trouble, he entered the 2019 season with a career 2.6% interception rate. More importantly (and related to that fact), most interceptions are thrown when trailing, and Mariota plays on the worst of these three teams. On the other hand, he has now gone 6 straight games without an interception and 169 passes without an interception, while taking 21 sacks during that period. Presumably, Mariota will at some point soon throw an interception while in catch-up mode, but you never know: against the Jaguars in week 4, Tennessee took over down 13 points with 3:23 remaining, and were so aggressive that they… got to the Jaguars 37-yard line with 2 seconds remainin.

Since the start of the 2015 season, 62% of all interceptions have come when a team was behind on the scoreboard, 14% in tie games, and the remaining 24% by the team in the lead. The easiest way to avoid throwing interceptions is to take a sack; the second-easiest way is to play with the lead. You might have noticed that since the Saints have become good again, Drew Brees has stopped throwing interceptions.

Wilson, of course, is therefore in a very good position. He takes a lot of sacks and often plays with the lead, which should help to minimize his chances of throwing an interception. He’s also one of the most accurate passers in the NFL, which helps quite a lot, too. Wilson is completing 73.1% of his passes so far in 2019, and he has a career interception rate under 2.0%. Can he go the next 11 games without throwing an interception? It’s been done before, but only once: Tom Brady, during the last 11 games of the 2010 season, is the only quarterback to go 11 straight games without throwing an interception (minimum 10 pass attempts in each game). The next time he took the field, he threw an interception on the first drive of the Patriots playoff game against the Jets, which New England lost. If Brady wasn’t so clutch, that would have looked like he choked in a playoff game. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3

If you drop back to pass 70 times, it doesn’t matter what the score is: that’s a very pass-heavy game! The Rams had one of the most pass-heavy games of the season on Sunday in a 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay. Los Angeles finished with 70 pass plays versus just 11 runs, an 86.4% pass ratio rarely see in the NFL.

And it wasn’t all game script. Los Angeles had 7 passes and 1 run (a Cooper Kupp handoff, no less) on the team’s first offensive drive of the game. And on the Rams second drive, with the score only 7-0, Los Angeles had 7 passes and no runs.  The Rams seemed to overcorrect on their third drive by running on the first two plays of their third drive, but two Malcolm Brown runs led to a 3rd-and-4 and a Jared Goff interception.  This means Todd Gurley didn’t get his first carry of the game until the team’s 18th play from scrimmage and fourth drive of the game.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers also had a very pass-heavy game plan in week four.  This was a perfectly even game: it was a back-and-forth contest where Green Bay finished with a -0.1 Game Script.  Running back Aaron Jones rushed 13 times for only 21 yards, while Rodgers had 53 pass attempts, 1 sack, and 5 scrambles (with zero designed runs).  That means the Packers called 59 pass plays and just 15 rushes, although Game Scripts data currently considers scrambles as rushing plays.  That’s remarkably pass-heavy for an even game.

Finally, Joe Flacco and the Broncos stood out as pass-happy, too.  Denver lost, but led the most of the game and finished with a +4.9 Game Script. Flacco played pretty well, taking no sacks and throwing for 15 first downs and 303 yards on 38 attempts.  Perhaps this was a response to my article about how Denver was over-the-top run-heavy in week 3?

The full week 4 Game Script data below: [continue reading…]

It was a rough week for a lot of passers in week 4: there were just 39 touchdown passes by the 30 teams, and the league averaged only 5.82 ANY/A. There were a pair of 16-10 victories (NE/BUF, CAR/HOU) where all quarterbacks played poorly, a 16-6 victory that was pretty ugly (CHI/MIN), and a 12-10 matchup on Sunday Night (NO/DAL) that was equally hard to watch.

NFL teams have gotten very conservative in the passing game, and I’d suggest that they are far too conservative. Kirk Cousins did not throw an interception, but that’s because he showed no sign of aggressiveness. Take a look at his passing chart, and keep in mind that this does not show the six times he took a sack: [continue reading…]

Last year, I wrote about how not all interceptions are created equally, and that there is a large diversity in the impact of interceptions.

There have been a lot of meaningless interceptions this season already. Baker Mayfield threw an interception down by 23 points with 3 minutes remaining at the Cleveland 20. That interception dropped the Browns chances of winning from zero to zero. Trailing by 42 points, Josh Rosen opened the 4th quarter of the opening game loss to the Ravens by throwing a meaningless interception. The next week, Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two 4th quarter interceptions in a blowout loss to the Patriots: yeah, maybe all Dolphins interceptions are meaningless, but these three were *really* meaningless. And the most meaningless (is that a thing?) one yet? Rosen threw an interception on the final play of that Patriots game, too. [continue reading…]

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2

New England is at it again, rolling through the NFL in dominant fashion.  For the third time in three games, the Patriots had a Game Script of over +14.0.  The Patriots have outscored teams by 53 points at halftime and 73 points through three quarters; both are the best marks in the league.  Here’s your money stat of the week: New England opponents have run 169 plays this year, and 120 of them (71%) have come with the Patriots leading by more than two touchdowns.

From a Game Scripts perspective, the most interesting thing about week 3 might have been that Tom Brady was still really pass-happy. The Patriots joined the rare 10/15/20/45 club: leading by at least 10, 15, and 20 points after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, respectively, and throwing 45+ times in the game.  The last time it happened was so unusual I wrote about it in this column then, too.

The other team that was really pass-heavy was Philip Rivers and the Chargers.  In a game where Los Angeles had a +2.4 Game Script, you’d expect a pretty average pass ratio.  Instead, L.A. passed on 74% of plays, the most of all 32 teams in week 3.  It is unusual that the team with the highest pass ratio in a week had a positive Game Script, but it’s hard to fault a team like the Chargers for passing a lot. Also worth noting: the two Chargers running backs, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, caught 11 of 11 targets for 51 yards (and 3 first downs), which … well, I’m not quite sure what to think about that. [continue reading…]

You may have noticed that PFR has been making some additions to their fantastic website, including by adding some advanced statistics pages. For example, regular readers may recall Adam’s post this offseason about Nick Mullens and how much he benefited from yards after the catch.

In the cases of Beathard and Mullens, it’s no coincidence that both played for the same team. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme was able to exploit defenses and create gaping holes in the zone for his receivers to pick up huge chunks of yardage. This created long gains that boosted the stat sheet for his quarterbacks but only required simple throws that nearly every professional passer could make.

Well, now you can check for yourself at PFR: this page shows advanced passing stats from 2018; as it turns out, Mullens averaged 6.9 yards of “YAC” — yards after the catch — on his completions last season, the highest rate in the NFL.  And while they didn’t throw enough passes to qualify, 49ers quarterbacks C.J. Beathard (7.1 YAC/C) and Jimmy Garoppolo (6.9) also had crazy-high YAC numbers.

This season? With Garoppolo back as the San Francisco starter, his receivers are averaging an NFL-best 9.8 yards after the catch.  This page is a great resource, and also can help you uncover some surprises. For example, I expected the marriage between head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Jameis Winston to lead to a lot of big plays down the field. Winston averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt last season, 2nd-highest in the NFL behind his Bucs teammate Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Winston also ranked last in yards gained after the catch per completion, at 3.7, a residue of Tampa Bay’s downfield style.

Arians was known for constructive a similar offense, but so far this year, Winston is one of five passers averaging over 9 yards of YAC per completion. Is that sustainable over 16 games? We have no way of knowing, but it will be interesting to monitor. And thanks to PFR’s new advanced stats pages, we can.

For fun, I graphed the passers in 2018 and 2019 by their YAC per completion, with 2018 data on the X-Axis and 2019 data on the Y-Axis. Jimmy G and Pat Mahomes are in the upper right, with high YAC numbers in both ’18 and ’19. But Winston is on the upper left, with high YAC in ’19 but low YAC in ’18. [continue reading…]

The Jets started Sam Darnold in week 1 at quarterback, but due to mono, New York was forced to start Trevor Siemian in week two. But in Siemian’s first start, he injured his ankle and was lost for the season. Now, the Jets turn to Luke Falk today to be the team’s third starting quarterback in just three weeks.

How rare is that? Excluding the 1987 season which featured replacement players during week three, the Jets will be just the 6th team since 1950 to start three different quarterbacks in the team’s opening three games.

In 2016, as the Browns embarked on an 0-16 season, Cleveland started Robert Griffin in week 1, Josh McCown in week 2, and Cody Kessler in week 3.  Both changes were the result of injury, with Griffin suffering a broken bone in his shoulder and McCown breaking his collarbone.

In 2008, the soon to be 2-14 Chiefs went with Brodie Croyle at quarterback to open the season, Damon Huard, and finally Tyler Thigpen in week 3. Croyle suffered a shoulder injury in week one, while Huard had a neck/head injury in week two, leading to Thigpen’s promotion to starting quarterback.

In 1997, the Jaguars had a rough start to the year beginning in the preseason. Starting quarterback Mark Brunell suffered a knee injury during the preseason which sidelined him for a few weeks. As a result, Rob Johnson wound up starting week 1, but suffered a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss the following week. Steve Matthews would start for the team in week 2, and following a week 3 bye, Brunell returned as the starter in week 4. Jacksonville won all three games and went 11-5 that season.

In 1988, Bernie Kosar started for the Browns in week 1, but injured his elbow and was replaced by Gary Danielson. In week 2, Danielson started but played poorly in the last game of his NFL career; he was replaced by Mike Pagel, who would start in week 3. Cleveland would finish the season 10-6, with Kosar starting nine games.

Finally, in 1976, the Rams started three different quarterbacks. Starter James Harris injured his thumb in the preseason, leading Ron Jaworski to open the season as the starter. But Jaws was injured in week 1, leading Pat Haden to start in week 2 for Los Angeles. By the third game, Harris was back, and the Rams would finish the year 10-3-1.

And that’s it. The Jets are now the 6th team to have to start three different quarterbacks to open the season, and none of the first five teams had to start four different quarterbacks in its first four games.

Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts

In week 2, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Atlanta — with three high-profile quarterbacks — all went pass-happy. Arizona and Carolina — who also sport a pair of number one overall picks at quarterback, did the same. Cleveland dominated the Jets in a game that wasn’t really ever in doubt, and yet Baker Mayfield still wound up throwing on nearly two-thirds of all plays. In Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes was tasked to throw on over two-thirds of Chiefs plays, but hey – he’s Mahomes! The Falcons have Matt Ryan, and while he was inconsistent against the Eagles, Devonta Freeman rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries. As a result, Atlanta threw on over 70% of its plays in a competitive game against Philadelphia, the highest pass ratio of any winning team in week two.

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray had 43 dropbacks and 3 rushing attempts against the Ravens, while RB David Johnson had just 7 carries. Arizona was trailing most of the way (-6.4 Game Script), but an 80% pass ratio is always going to stand out as pass-heavy.  Arizona and Kliff Kingsbury  had a similar Game Script in week 1 and threw on 72% of plays: it appears Arizona will not be easing into things for the number one overall pick. Finally, we have Carolina and Cam Newton, who is likely to miss week 3 with a lingering foot injury. Newton was obviously not at 100% in week 2 — he tied a career low with just 2 carries, and they gained 0 yards — and yet he tied a career high with 54 dropbacks! Christian McCaffrey (16 for 37) was not particularly effective on the ground, but this was a competitive game throughout. Normally, we suggest passing frequently in close games, but with an injured Newton, it’s fair to wonder if that was the right strategy.

The full week 2 Game Scripts below: [continue reading…]

Eli Manning has been benched by the Giants, which means he may have taken his last NFL snap. As of today, he ranks 7th all-time in passing yards and 8th all-time in passing touchdowns. Manning also ranks 6th all-time in pass attempts, and his career is one of the more unusual ones in NFL history. And that’s because when a quarterback stays with one team for so long, it usually means he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Today I want to compare how Eli Manning has fared, statistically, to the rest of the NFL. Manning was the first pick in the 2004 Draft, and so I looked at all passing stats in the NFL from 2004 through week 2 of the 2019 season. [continue reading…]