Last year, Penn State tight end (and now Miami Dolphin) Mike Gesicki had the best vertical jump at the Combine. In general, the vertical jump favors lighter players and taller players: it’s easier to produce a big vertical jump if you have long legs and are carrying less mass.

The best-fit formula to estimate a player’s vertical jump at the 2019 Combine would be predicted using the following formula:

Projected VJ = 36.85 + 0.173 * height (inches) – 0.0667 * weight (pounds)

Using that formula, Virginia safety Juan Thornhill produced the top vertical jump at the 2019 Combine. Standing six feet even and weighing 205 pounds, we would expect such a player to have a 35.6″ vertical. Thornhill, meanwhile, had a remarkable 44″ vertical jump. [continue reading…]

Did you know that Dan Marino and Bob Griese have accounted for over 45% of all pass attempts, over 48% of all passing yards, and over 53% of all passing touchdowns in Miami Dolphins history? The Dolphins are the rare franchise that has just four players with more than 40 touchdown passes: Marino (420), Griese (192), Ryan Tannehill (123), and Jay Fiedler (66). But perhaps here is the most startling stat: Ryan Tannehill has the best passer rating in Dolphins history!

Yes, Tannehill — he of the back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back breakout seasons — has a better passer rating than both Marino and Griese, although of course that’s not true when you adjust for era. Marino ended his career with an 86.4 passer rating, and a 76.9 passer rating when adjusted for era. Griese had a 77.1 actual passer rating, and a 79.0 passer rating when adjusted for era (Griese also took a ton of sacks, while Marino took very few, which is the only reason Greise’s era-adjusted rating comes in ahead of Marino’s). Tannehill, through 2017, had a 65.1 era-adjusted passer rating, and in 2018, had a 66.4 EA PR, but his career un-adjusted passer rating is 87.0.

So while we know passer rating is silly to use when not adjusting for era, as a matter of trivia, it’s pretty interesting to see Tannehill ahead of Marino. But ANY/A — which includes sacks — is a better way to measure passing efficiency. And so today, I thought it might be interesting to look at the history of the Miami Dolphins passing offense and passing defenses, based on trailing 16 game averages.

That’s shown in this graph below. The orange line shows the trailing 16-game Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average of the Dolphins offense going back to 1966. You can see the Marino-induced spike in ’84 and ’85, as more games from his historic 1984 season is captured by the trailing average. The aqua line shows the trailing 16-game ANY/A allowed by the Dolphins defense: the valleys shown in ’73/’74 and early 1983 are good representations of the Super Bowl defenses that carried the Dolphins in 1972, 1973, and 1982 (of course, the ’72 and ’73 offenses were good, too). [continue reading…]

Last year, Georgia running back Nick Chubb was the leader in the bench press. This year, Kansas State running back Alex Barnes — who led the Big 12 in rushing — was your top muscle man. The bench press is an exercise that measures upper body strength, but it is biased in favor of heavier players and shorter players.

The best-fit formula to project bench press reps for the 2019 Combine was:

Expected BP reps = 45.00 -0.7513 * Height (Inches) + 0.1240 * Weight (Pounds)

For example, here are the projected reps for a player at the 2019 Combine with each of the following heights (in inches) and weights (in pounds):

[continue reading…]

The next Ryan Tannehill breakout season will be coming in Tennessee, after the Dolphins traded Tannehill and a 2019 6th round pick to the Titans for Tennessee’s 2020 4th round pick and 2019 7th round pick.

Okay, snark aside, the Tannehill breakout season never actually happened, despite the predictions of sports journalists everywhere. After a nondescript rookie season in 2012, the breakout didn’t happen in his sophomore season in 2013. That prompted me to ask the question: How long does it take great quarterbacks to break out?

Tannehill began his career with two consecutive seasons of below-average ANY/A, and while some excused his poor numbers due to bad coaching and offensive line play, I wrote that if “Tannehill turns into a star quarterback, he’ll be a very unique case.” That line remains true.

Many expected him to break out in his third year in 2014, but that didn’t happen, either. At that point, I wondered whether Tannehill was ever going to break out, and noted that if a quarterback begins his career with three straight years of below-average play, that’s probably bad sign.

Then, prior to his fourth season in 2015, Jon Gruden said the breakout season was coming, and so did… Tannehill himself. It did not happen, and blame wound up being placed on the head coach.

After four seasons, I asked the satirical question: Where Does Ryan Tannehill rank in the Pantheon of Great QBs? At the time, there had been 88 quarterbacks since 1970 who had taken at least 90% of the same team’s pass attempts in every year in any four-year window. Of those passers, Tannehill had the second worst passing stats of any quarterback and was one of just three that failed to start a single playoff game. So, clearly, Tannehill had to be great to be getting all of these snaps despite both a below-average record and below-average statistics. [continue reading…]

The Jaguars signed Nick Foles and released Blake Bortles this week, finally ending the very long and very underwhelming Blake Bortles era. Since being selected with the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 Draft, Bortles has thrown 2,632 passes, 9th most in the NFL.

During that time, he leads all players in interceptions (75), picks six (13), losses (49), ranks second in fumbles (46), ranks third in sacks taken (195), and ranks 12th in passing yards, 13th in pass completions, and 15th in passing touchdowns.

So how did Bortles last so long? If you squint, you can see how Bortles lasted five years, mostly by never putting together back-to-back clearly bad seasons.

As a rookie in 2014, Bortles finished dead last in ANY/A and went 3-10. It was an awful season, but not necessarily out of line with what you would expect from a rookie quarterback joining a bad team. [continue reading…]

Landon Collins just smashed whatever ceiling we thought existed on the safety market: the new Redskins defensive back signed a 6-year, $84M contract with $26M fully guaranteed, that will give him $45M over the next 3 seasons. His signing in Washington is part of a much larger trend, notable in light of the controversy surrounding the safety market a year ago.

In 2018, Earl Thomas got into a nasty dispute with Seahawks management over a new contract. Seattle would not relent, and Thomas eventually returned and played a final year with $8.5 million remaining on his contract. Thomas played just four games in 2018 due to a broken leg, but that didn’t prevent the Ravens from giving him a new 4-year contract worth $55M, with $32M guaranteed.

In 2018, Eric Reid’s shadow loomed over the safety market: he went unsigned all summer, presumed at least in part due to the controversy surrounding his kneeling during the national anthem and the related grievance against the league that the NFLPA filed on his behalf. He eventually signed a 1-year deal worth less than $2M with the Panthers, but this week, he re-signed with Carolina on a 3-year, $22M deal (that, at a minimum, will be a 1-year, $9M deal).

Tyrann Mathieu was frustrated last summer, too, in the midst of a brutal market for safeties. He wound up signing a 1-year deal with Houston for $7M. This offseason? Mathieu just inked a 3 year, $42,000,000 deal with Kansas City.

In 2018, Kurt Coleman signed with the Saints after being released by Carolina. He signed a 3-year, $16.35M deal, but has already been released; that contract ended up being a 1-year, $6.3M deal. The other most “notable” signing was Morgan Burnett with the Steelers, to a three year, $14.35 million contract. Otherwise, safeties didn’t sign any notable contracts a year ago, in stark contrast to 2019.

Kenny Vaccaro was a high profile free agent last year, but he was limited to a 1-year, $1.1M deal with the Titans in 2018. Tennessee just resigned him, though, now to a 4-year, $26M deal with $12M guaranteed. That’s a pretty nice upgrade. [continue reading…]

As I do each year, I like to analyze the results from the NFL combine but adjust for height and weight.

Based on the results in Indianapolis in 2019, the best way to project estimated 40-yard dash times based on weight and height was to use the following formula:

Estimated 40-yard dash time = 3.569 -0.002 * height (inches) + 0.005426 x weight (lbs)

Weight has a much bigger role than height when calculating estimated 40 times, and you can see that in the graph below, which represents the estimated 40 times for a player at the ’19 Combine at various heights and weights: [continue reading…]

Last year, edge rushers Marcus Davenport (14th overall pick by the Saints) and Lorenzo Carter (66th pick by the Giants) ran the top weight-adjusted times in the 40-yard dash.  For perspective, Davenport weighed in at 264 and ran a 4.58, while Carter was 450 pounds and ran a 4.50.  Based on the best-fit formula from the 2018 combine, every 5 additional pounds of player weight corresponded to taking about 3 hundredths of a second longer to run the 40, so Davenport and Carter essentially tied for having the best time in the race.

This year, there was no tie.  In fact, it wasn’t particularly close, as Mississippi State edge rusher Montez Sweat weighted 260 pounds but ran a 4.41!

PFR has 40-yard dash times at the NFL combine going back to 2000. Over that time period, there have been a number of players who have run the race in 4.45 or fewer seconds at a decent weight, and a number of players at 250 pounds or heavier who ran a sub 4.70 40. But being both heavy and lightning fast is pretty unusual. In fact, Sweat and Vernon Davis (2006, 254, 4.38) really stand out in this regard.

The graph below shows the heavy guys who ran fast times, and the fast guys who weren’t super skinny, going back to 2000.  The X-Axis shows weight, and the Y-Axis shows 40 time, in reverse order.  You want to be up and to the right, and Davis and Sweat (both colored in red) stand out the most in that regard.  The top left is all the super fast players, and the bottom right is all the heavy athletes, but it’s the rare athlete who could hang out in either group.  Davis and Sweat are those rare athletes. [continue reading…]

Four months ago, this headline would have been unthinkable. But now the rumors are swirling that the Cardinals are interested in drafting Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the first overall pick… and also trading Josh Rosen, last year’s first round pick.

I’m short on time today and will try to add more on this later. But for now, I’ll open this up to the crowd:

1) What should the Cardinals do?

2) What do you think the Cardinals will do?

The graph below shows all quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft from 1967 (the start of the common draft) through 2014. For each quarterback, I’ve shown how many starts that quarterback had with the team that drafted him (although for John Elway, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers, I used the Broncos, Giants, and Chargers, since that feels more appropriate for this study).

Two quarterbacks drafted in the late ’80s — Kelly Stouffer and Jim Everett — were traded after lengthy holdouts and never started a game with the teams that drafted them. Only 21 of the 113 quarterbacks drafted in the first round failed to start 16 games with the teams that drafted them; those quarterbacks are shown in red dots.

Look around the NFL these days, and you won’t see any left-handed quarterbacks. The last touchdown pass in the NFL that came from a left-handed player came from Tennessee Titans defensive back Kevin Byard. The 2015 season was the last time an NFL team started a left-handed quarterback, with former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore and Steelers backupMichael Vick each seeing some action.

The heyday of the southpaw signal caller was in 1995 and 1996, when Steve Young, Boomer Esiason, Mark Brunell, and Scott Mitchell were all regular starters. [continue reading…]

On April 4th, the Jets will unveil new uniforms. There are a lot of questions one can ask about this obviously noteworthy and exciting event. Post your answers in the comments, and we will grade them on April 5th!  All disputes will be resolved by me however I see it.

For each correct answer, you receive the number of points displayed next to that correct answer.  For each incorrect answer, you receive 0 points.  Most points wins. For example, if you answer “yes” to the first question, and the Jets uniform includes the color green, you only get 10 points. If it does not, you get 0 points. But if you answer “no”, and the uniform does not include green, you get 90 points (and you get 0 points if it includes green).

1) Will the uniform include the color green?

• Yes: 10 points
• No: 90 points

2) Will green be the primary (as measured by surface area) color on the jersey (i.e., ignoring the pants and helmet)?

• Yes: 25 points
• No: 75 points

3) Will the uniform include the color black (not currently on the Jets uniform)

• Yes: 49 points
• No: 51 points

4) Will the uniform contain a color that is NOT green, white, or black?

• Yes: 80 points
• No: 20 points

5) Will the uniform contain any shade of red?

• Yes: 95 points
• No: 5 points

6) Will the uniform contain any shade of blue?

• Yes: 90 points
• No: 10 points

7) Will the Jets home uniform contain more black than white?

• Yes: 60 points
• No: 40 points

8) Will the uniform include a picture of a jet plane, a reference to flying, or a reference to New York City?

• Yes: 80 points
• No: 20 points

9) Assuming green is included (question null if not), will the color green be roughly the same shade of green currently used in the team’s uniform?

• Yes: 66 points
• No: 34 points

10) Assuming green is included (question null if not), will the color green be lighter than the shade currently used in the team’s uniform?

• Yes: 66 points
• No: 34 points

11) Assuming green is included (question null if not), will the color green be darker than the shade currently used in the team’s uniform?

• Yes: 66 points
• No: 34 points

12) Will the Jets main (i.e., excluding alternates) road jersey (excluding pants and helmet) have white as the primary (i.e., surface area) color?

• Yes: 25 points
• No: 75 points

Helmet/Logo Questions

13) Will the Jets helmet contain a plane (ala the 1963 version)?

• Yes: 80 points
• No: 20 points

14) Will the Jets helmet contain a football?

• Yes: 30 points
• No: 70 points

15) Will the Jets helmet contain the letters NY?

• Yes: 50 points
• No: 50 points

16) Will the Jets helmet bring back the concept of letters “JETS” in a slant font that resembles the wing of a plane?

• Yes: 45 points
• No: 55 points

17) Will the Jets helmet contain 3 colors?

• Yes: 80 points
• No: 20 points

18) Will the primary color (i.e., surface area) on the Jets helmet remain white?

• Yes: 55 points
• No: 45 points

19) Will the helmet keep the two parallel line down the middle of the helmet theme?

• Yes: 45 points
• No: 55 points

20) Will any part of the uniform, logo, or helmet have a call back or reference to the navy and gold Titans uniforms of Jets past?

• Yes: 90 points
• No: 10 points

As I noted earlier this week, the Patriots have a lot of Draft Value in the 2019 Draft. In fact, as of now — which is not going to hold, since the Patriots always make draft day trades — they have more draft capital than any other defending Super Bowl champion since the ’03 Patriots. The ’03 Patriots traded with the Ravens (who were trading up for Kyle Boller) during the ’03 Draft for Baltimore’s 2004 1st round pick. That gave the defending Super Bowl champions two first round picks, which they used on Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson.

Below is the draft capital each Super Bowl champion had in the draft immediately following their Super Bowl victory. I put the six Patriots teams in red. [continue reading…]

RB Christian McCaffrey had 867 receiving yards last year, while WR Chris Godwin had 842 receiving yards. But they got there in very different ways. McCaffrey gained just 16 of his receiving yards via “air yards” — yards gained on catches based on yards in the air the pass traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver — and 851 of his receiving yards came on yards gained after the catch. Godwin had 597 air yards, and 245 yards after the catch.

That’s an extreme split, but consistent with the general rule that running backs gain very little air yards (many of their receptions come from behind the line of scrimmage, which produces negative air yards) and a lot of yards after the catch. For wide receivers, about 60-70% of their yards come through the air, with the remainder coming after the catch.

Tight ends are interesting, by virtue of usually landing somewhere in between those two marks. The graph below shows data from the 2018 season, with air yards shown on the X-Axis and yards gained after the catch shown on the Y-Axis. Running backs are in red, tight ends are in green, and wide receivers are in blue. [continue reading…]

As regular readers know, I have my own draft pick value chart, which — unlike the Jimmy Johnson chart which was designed to reflect the value given up by teams in trade — is based on the actual value produced by players, historically, with that pick. I also have a Draft Pick Value Calculator, which uses my values, and a version that uses the Jimmy Johnson values.

With that in mind, we can assign draft values to all of the picks in the 2019 Draft, now that the compensatory picks have been handed out.  Those grades are shown below. [continue reading…]

The graph below shows each team in the NFL. The X-Axis shows how much effective cap space in 2019 each team has, as determined by Over The Cap. The Y-Axis shows each team’s winning percentage in 2018. The Colts, with over $100M of effective cap space in 2019, and a 10-6 record in 2018, stand out from the pack; I’ve colored their dot in white and blue. The Houston Texans, third with $83M (the Jets are second with $98M) and an 11-5 record last year, do too; I’ve colored their dot in blue and red.

[continue reading…]

There have been 45 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 30,000 yards. I write about this nearly every year, as not much changes. Three of them — Drew Bledsoe (born February 14, 1972), Jim Kelly (2/14/1960), and Steve McNair (2/14/1973) — were all born on February 14th.

If we drop the cut-off to 16,000 yards, we jump to 141 quarterbacks but get to include David Garrard, another Valentine’s Day baby (1978). But wait, there’s more: If we drop the threshold to 3,500 passing yards, we get to include Patrick Ramsey and Anthony Wright. Those guys may not impress you, but consider that less than 350 players have thrown for 3,500 yards. That means dozens of days have zero quarterbacks with 3,500 yards — including New Year’s Day, another February holiday (Groundhog Day), Cinco De Mayo, Halloween, and Christmas Eve — so slotting in Ramsey and Wright as QB5 and QB6 on your birthday dream team is pretty damn good. [continue reading…]

As you probably heard by now, the Ravens are trading Joe Flacco to the Broncos for a 4th round pick. Flacco had a very long tenure in Baltimore despite being a below-average passer, at least as measured by Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. That’s what I wrote last summer, and obviously not much has changed since then: in 2018, Flacco went 4-5 in 9 starts before losing his job first due to injury and then permanently, and ranked 24th out of 33 quarterbacks in ANY/A. Flacco lasted so long for two reasons: he had one of the best postseason runs ever in 2012, culminating in a Super Bowl victory and a monster contract, and he won a lot of regular season games.

It’s the second part that I want to focus on today. I looked at all teams for the 10-year period from 2008 to 2017. This encapsulates the Joe Flacco experience in Baltimore, minus the 9 games he started this season. Flacco was the Ravens quarterback for all but 6 games during this 160-game stretch, so using team numbers is a very good proxy for Flacco’s performance. [continue reading…]

Every year, I like to post the full results of the Associated Press voting for the All-Pro team, as the voting numbers are much more valuable than the binary answer to the question of whether or not a player was an All-Pro.

Remember the new rules: there is no fullback position, but rather a “Flex” spot that goes to a running back, wide receiver, or tight end. This year, 27 of the 50 votes went to a wide receiver, 22 votes went to a running back, 1 went to a fullback, and 0 went to a tight end. On both offense and defense there are 12 first-team All-Pros: on offense, it’s five offensive lineman, a quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one flex, and one tight end. On defense, there are 2 first team edge rushers, 2 interior defenders, 3 linebackers, 2 cornerbacks, 2 safeties, and one defensive back.

The voting is wildly inconsistent across positions, as you’ll soon see.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City, 45; Drew Brees, New Orleans, 5. [continue reading…]

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones finished another magnificent season in 2018, and turned 30 years old yesterday. He now has over 10,000 career yards, and the most receiving yards of any player before turning 30 years old. Does that mean he might one day break the career receiving yards mark held by Jerry Rice?

The answer, of course, is probably not.  Or more like, almost certainly not. Many have tried, and none have come all that close.  Jones has leapfrogged Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss — the three leaders in receiving yards through age 27 — but those three stars also serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to maintain greatness into your mid 30s.

The graph below shows the career receiving yards by Rice and Jones through Age X, with each age shown on the X-Axis, and career receiving yards through that age on the Y-Axis.  As you can see, Jones has a slight lead, and he’s had it for, well, his whole career (since Rice’s first season was at age 23, while Jones’s first year was at age 22): [continue reading…]

Do you remember how bad the 2017 Seahawks running game was, at least apart from Russell Wilson?  You may recall that last year, Wilson became the rare quarterback to lead his team in rushing, but the situation was even more dire than that. A year ago in this space, guest writer Miles Wray noted that the 2017 Seahawks became the first team since in a 16-game season to fail to produce a 250-yard rusher. Here’s a look at all players who recorded a rushing attempt for Seattle in 2017:

Davis led all running backs with just 24 yards, but the group was no better: Seattle running backs finished with an anemic 845 yards on 274 carries, producing an unfathomably low 3.08 YPC average. But this season? It was a very, very different story in Seattle. Take a look at the 2018 Seahawks rushing attack: [continue reading…]

The 2018 Associated Press All-Pro awards were announced over the weekend, and you may have missed them in the Super Bowl and Hall of Fame hype. So let’s review, and in particular, pay attention to the vote count and results from other outlets.

Most Valuable Player

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes received 41 votes, while Saints QB Drew Brees received 9 votes.  This wasn’t too surprising:  Mahomes was the most valuable passer in football, at least statistically, by a good measure.  The Pro Football Writers of America also picked Mahomes.

Offensive Player of the Year

Patrick Mahomes picked up 30 votes, followed by Drew Brees (16), Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (2) and Rams RB Todd Gurley (2).  PFWA picked Mahomes, as did the Sporting News (they don’t pick an MVP).  The Sporting News lists its runners up as Brees in 2nd place, Gurley in 3rd, and then Philip Rivers and Antonio Brown tied for 4th place.

Defensive Player of the Year

Rams DT Aaron Donald repeated as DP DPOY, picking up 45 votes. New Bears LB Khalil Mack received the other 5 votes. In 2017, Donald earned 23 votes, with Jaguars DE Calais Campbell the runner-up with 17 votes.  You won’t be surprised to learn that PFWA also picked Donald. The Sporting News also had Donald 1st, followed by Mack, Texans DE J.J. Watt, Chicago S Eddie Jackson, and a 3-way tie for 5th place among Colts rookie LB Darius Leonard, Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner, and Bears CB Kyle Fuller.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Giants RB Saquon Barkley picked up 26.5 votes, edging out Browns QB Baker Mayfield (21.5). Colts G Quenton Nelson also received 2 votes. PFWA picked Mayfield as its overall rookie of the year, but also chose Barkley as its Offensive Rookie of the Year.  Is that confusing?  It sure is, but I suppose this is akin to picking one player for MVP, and another offensive player for Offensive Player of the Year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Colts LB Darius Leonard won the award with 29 votes, Chargers S Derwin James received 20 votes, and Broncos DE Bradley Chubb received 1 vote. The Sporting News, which votes for just a Rookie of the Year, had Barkley first, Mayfield second, Leonard third, James fourth, and Chubb 5th.  PFWA also went with Leonard.

Comeback Player of the Year

Colts QB Andrew Luck won the award with 44 votes; Texans DE J.J. Watt received 4 votes, while Redskins RB Adrian Peterson received 2 votes. Both the PFWA and the Sporting News also selected Luck, with the Sporting News having Deshaun Watson second, J.J. Watt third, Adrian Peterson fourth, and Odell Beckham fifth.

Coach of the Year

Bears HC Matt Nagy won the award with 24 votes, beating out runner-up Anthony Lynn of the Chargers who had 10 votes. Colts HC Frank Reich was the runner up with 8, followed by Chiefs HC Andy Reid (5), Seahawks HC Pete Carroll (2), Saints HC Sean Payton (1).  The Sporting News went with Reid, followed by Lynn, Nagy, and Reich in a 3-way tie for second place.  PFWA also picked Nagy.

Assistant Coach of the Year

Bears DC Vic Fangio received exactly half of the 50 votes to win the award, easily beating out Ravens DC Don Martindale (9). Indianapolis DC Matt Eberflus received 7 votes, followed by Seahawks OLC Mike Solari (2), Cleveland OC Freddie Kitchens (2), and then give coaches with one vote each: Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer, Browns DC Gregg Williams, Colts OLC Dave DeGuglielmo, Cowboys DC Kris Richard, and Saints DC Dennis Allen.  The AP has only been giving this honor out for five years: the first winner was Todd Bowles as Arizona DC, Wade Phillips (then the Broncos DC) won it in ’15, and then offensive coordinators Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta) and Pat Shurmur (Minnesota) won it the last two years.  This has been an obvious launchpad to head coaching jobs: Bowles was hired by the Jets in ’15, Shanahan by the 49ers in ’17, Shurmur by the Giants in ’18, and now Fangio by the Broncos in ’19. Only the older Phillips hasn’t immediately become a head coach after winning this award.

PFWA also went with Fangio.  The Sporting News gave this honor to Fangio, with Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, Rams ST coach John Fassel, and Eberflus in a 3-way tie for second place.

Executive Of the Year

Only voted on by PFWA, this honor went to Colts GM Chris Ballard.

Yes, this was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Just as the game ended, I tweeted this graph:

But this game was even more anemic than you think, once you consider the two teams in the game. Consider that in the regular season, Los Angeles averaged 32.9 points per game, just 1/16th of a point per game more than the famed ’99 Rams. In fact, the ’18 Rams were the 6th-highest scoring offense to ever make the Super Bowl, behind five other Super Bowl losers: the ’13 Broncos, ’07 Patriots, ’83 Redskins, ’16 Falcons, and ’67 Raiders. But by being held to just 3 points, Los Angeles came in at a whopping 29.9 points below their regular season average. That narrowly (by, in fact, 1/16th of a point per game) bests the ’13 Broncos as the biggest underachieving result in the Super Bowl. There have been 106 teams to play in the Super Bowl, and despite being the 6th-highest scoring team to make it, LA finished as one of just two teams to score only 3 points in the Super Bowl (no team has ever been shut out).

But the Patriots don’t get off easy here. In the regular season, New England averaged 27.3 points per game, but in Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots couldn’t even get halfway to that total. With just 13 points, New England finished 14.3 points below their regular season average, the single worst result by any of the 53 Super Bowl winners.

So there you have it: the Rams were the lowest scoring team (relative to their average) of any team to lose in the Super Bowl, and the Patriots were the lowest scoring team (relative to their average) of any team to win the Super Bowl. With just 16 points, this was the lowest scoring Super Bowl, of course, but it was expected to be the third highest scoring Super Bowl ever! The Over/Under was 55.5 points, which trails only the ’16 Super Bowl (New England/Atlanta, with an O/U of 57.0 points and 62 points actually scored) and the ’09 Super Bowl (New Orleans/Indianapolis, 56.5, 48). [continue reading…]

You’ve probably heard more about Sean McVay over the last two seasons than you ever expected.  But here’s one thing about McVay that is entirely ordinary: he’s a 2nd-year coach taking his team to the Super Bowl. In fact, this is the third straight year the Patriots have made the Super Bowl and are facing a 2nd-year head coach, after facing the Eagles and Doug Pederson in 2017 and the Falcons and Dan Quinn in 2016. There have been 106 teams to make the Super Bowl, and 20 of them had second-year head coaches. That is the most common-year for a coach to make the Super Bowl:

Bill Belichick, meanwhile, is in his 19th year in Foxboro, and he joins Tom Landry as the longest-tenured coach to make a Super Bowl.

The table below shows the head coaches of the 106 Super Bowl teams, and how many years they were with that franchise when they made the Super Bowl:

As for next year, Matt Nagy would be the overwhelming favorite to join this list among second-year coaches, with Frank Reich and Mike Vrabel also coming off winning seasons in their first years as head coaches.

Since the Houston Texans entered the league in 2002, the Patriots have been the best team in the NFL. By, well, a lot. You won’t be too surprised to see that New England scored the most points from ’02 to ’18, followed by the Saints, Packers, Chargers, and Colts. The other three AFC East teams ranked in the bottom 10 in points scored during this time:

[continue reading…]

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to the Hall of Fame. Randy Moss (who was arguably a Hall of Famer without his Patriots years) and the late Junior Seau (who was definitely a Hall of Famer without his time in New England) are already in Canton.  But who else from this nearly two-decade run of success will join them?

Darrelle Revis and Brian Waters each spent a season with the Patriots, and have good Hall of Fame cases.  Fred Taylor spent two half-seasons with the Patriots, and will have an uphill Hall of Fame battle.

But what about true Patriots — i.e., players who built the majority of their career in Foxboro in the Brady/Belichick era?  Who will one-day join then in Canton?

The Lock

Rob Gronkowski is the only Patriot of this era to be named 1st-team All-Pro at his position four times.  He is a future Hall of Fame player and will go in without much debate. He will likely be remembered as the best tight end of all time at his peak, and one of the greatest tight ends in league history.

The Near-Lock

Adam Vinatieri is, in some ways, more of a Colt than a Patriot at this point — 55% of his career points, 55% of his career field goals, and 75% of his career 50+ yard field goals have come as a member of Indianapolis.  However, what makes Vinatieri’s HOF case is his All-Pros (2 out of 3 came in New England) and postseason play (3 of his 4 Super Bowls, and all of his defining moments, came with New England).

It’s brutally difficult for kickers to make the Hall of Fame, however, and Vinatieri isn’t one of the most efficient kickers of all time, so he’s placed in the near lock category despite public perception assuming he’s already in. Five years ago, I would have placed him in the borderline category, but his sheer volume (he’s scored more points than anyone in NFL history) gives him an edge on some placekickers who were better for a shorter period of time. [continue reading…]

The 2018 Kansas City Chiefs had a remarkable offense.  Behind head coach Andy Reid and quarterback and MVP Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs led the NFL in scoring with 565 points.  Kansas City joined the 2007 Patriots and 2013 Broncos as the only teams with 50+ passing touchdowns and 15+ rushing touchdowns, as the Chiefs scored a whopping 66 offensive touchdowns (and 5 more on defense/special teams).  But Kansas City’s offensive skill position players were not highly drafted, and that makes the Chiefs a pretty notable case.

A lot of great offenses are driven, unsurprisingly, by highly drafted skill position players. The 2007 Patriots had Randy Moss (1st round), and then Ben Watson (1st), Laurence Maroney (1st) and Jabar Gaffney (2nd) to go along with undrafted Wes Welker.

The Greatest Show On Turf Rams had high 1st round picks in Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt, along with #33 overall pick Isaac Bruce.

The Colts for much of the Peyton Manning era had 1st round picks in Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, and Dallas Clark. And Manning’s 2013 Broncos had 5 players with double digit TDs: first round picks in Demaryius Thomas and Knowshon Moreno, and later picks in Julius Thomas (4th round), Eric Decker (3rd round), and undrafted Wes Welker.

The 1998 49ers had 1st round picks in Garrison Hearst, Jerry Rice, and J.J. Stokes. The ’94 49ers had Jerry Rice, Ricky Watters, Steve Young, and William Floyd. And the list goes on and on.

But there are some teams that the overwhelming majority of touchdowns came from 3rd round picks or later. For example, the 1984 Dolphins had Mark Clayton (18 TDs, 8th round), Woody Bennett (8 TDs, undrafted), Nat Moore (6 TDs, 3rd round) and Bruce Hardy (5 TDs, 9th round). Only Pete Johnson (9 TDs, 2nd round) and Mark Duper (8 TDs, 2nd round) were higher picks, among the team’s leading scorers.

The 2011 Saints top four leaders in touchdowns were Jimmy Graham (3rd round), Darren Sproles (4th), Marques Colston (7th), and Lance Moore (undrafted). The next four players were Pierre Thomas (undrafted), Robert Meachem (1st round), Mark Ingram (1st round), and Jed Collins (undrafted).

Still, the 2018 Chiefs stand out from this pack, at least if you group together all players taken in the 3rd round or later. ^[1]By the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart, 83% of all draft value resides in the top 64 picks. Even in my draft value chart, which is more representative of actual value rather than trade value, 63% of … Continue reading A whopping 92% of Kansas City touchdowns came from such players, an almost unheard of margin for an elite offense. Take a look: [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at the evolving Patriots offensive line under Tom Brady in the 9 years that New England has made the Super Bowl.  Today, I want to look at the team’s receiving game.

The 2001-2004 Patriots passing attack was based around six players: Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch, and David Givens at wide receiver, Daniel Graham at tight end, and the always dependable Kevin Faulk as the pass-catching back. Brown was the superstar in ’01, while Graham/Givens/Branch weren’t around that year but were big parts of the ’03 and ’04 teams.

The 2007 team was a bit of an outlier, in part because New England didn’t make the Super Bowl in the two years before or the three years after. Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Ben Watson only appeared in one Super Bowl for New England: Super Bowl XII. The two notable players on the ’07 Patriots and other Super Bowl teams were Kevin Faulk (who was in New England forever, and was still the team’s top receiving back in ’07) and Wes Welker, who was a star on both the ’07 and ’11 teams. [continue reading…]

Next Sunday, in the final game of the 2018 season, Tom Brady will be getting ready to play in his 9th Super Bowl, a number that is hard to comprehend. What’s also impressive is that various offensive linemen who have blocked for the Patriots Super Bowl teams. In Super Bowl LIII, from left to right, Trent Brown, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Marcus Cannon will be protecting him.

None of those offensive linemen were in the lineup four years ago when the Patriots faced the Seahawks to conclude the 2014 season.

And none of those offensive linemen were in the lineup for the 2007 Patriots team that went 16-0.

And only one of those offensive linemen — left tackle Matt Light — were on the field the first time the Patriots played the Rams in the Super Bowl. [continue reading…]

As regular readers know, I publish the Game Scripts data after each week of the regular season. Below are the results from each of the 10 playoff games so far:

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