The 2022 season was another groundbreaking season for black quarterbacks in the NFL. There were 21 black quarterbacks who threw at least one pass this year, the highest number in a single season in NFL history. The graph below shows how many black quarterbacks in the NFL ^[1]Or AFL or AAFC. threw at least one pass in each season since the league began recording passing statistics in 1932:

Black quarterbacks also started 29% of all games, another high-water mark for the league. In 2022, 15 of the league’s 32 teams started a black quarterback in at least one game, including the PFWA Comeback Player of the Year (Seattle’s Geno Smith), the Most Valuable Player in the league (Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes) and the quarterback of the league’s best team during the regular season (Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts).

The charts above tell a remarkable story. Consider that the year of the first Super Bowl (1966), there were no black quarterbacks in the AFL or NFL. When Tom Brady was born (1977), there had never been an NFL game where both teams started black quarterbacks. And when Brady was drafted, there had never been two black quarterbacks to face off in an NFL playoff game. Now, on the day that Brady is retiring, it’s a noteworthy sign of progress that we are just days away from the first Super Bowl featuring two black quarterbacks (Mahomes and Hurts). It has been a remarkable journey for black quarterbacks in the NFL, one that started over one hundred years ago. [continue reading…]

When the Jets drafted Zach Wilson, the hope was that the kid from BYU would end a long line of Jets draft busts. Because after having their hopes dashed by Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, and then Sam Darnold, the Jets were due for some good luck. Right?

[continue reading…]

In 1946, the Pittsburgh Steelers went 5-5-1. While the sum of the team’s parts may have been perfectly average, their components were far from it. The head coach was newly-hired Jock Sutherland, who had been a local hero after taking the Pitt Panthers to four Rose Bowls. After a stint in the Navy during World War II, he returned to the city and coached the Steelers for two seasons, beginning in 1946. In the 10-team NFL, Pittsburgh allowed the fewest points in the NFL at 10.6 per game, a mark that would not be matched again until the Lombardi Packers in 1962. The NFL average in 1946 was 18.9 points per game, and every other team allowed at least 14.4 points per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers offense was as bad as the defense was good: the black and gold finished last in the league in scoring at 12.4 points per game.

That 1946 team was led by Bill Dudley, an all-world star who won the league’s MVP award. In addition to leading the league in rushing yards… and punt return yards and average… Dudley intercepted 10 passes that season! That remarkable fact came despite the Steelers only facing 162 pass attempts that season, meaning Dudley intercepted one out of every 16.2 passes the Steelers defense saw that season. It remains arguably the greatest season of thievery in NFL history.

Those ’46 Steelers were otherwise an unremarkable team, notable for this one fact: Pittsburgh is the last team to finish as the league’s lowest scoring team and to also allow the fewest points in the league. But this year, the 2022 Denver Broncos are challenging that mark. Through 9 games and 10 weeks of the season, Denver ranks last in scoring and first in points allowed. The Broncos have 131 points scored through 9 games — a very bad number although not a particularly low mark for the league’s worst-scoring team. ^[1]Last year, Houston scored 128 points through 9 games, and this year, the Colts have just one more point than Denver And they have allowed 149 points despite facing 11.8 drives per game (thanks, offense), tied for the most in the NFL.

A few teams have come close to pulling off this rare achievement, but it’s remarkable to consider that no team has done this since Sutherland’s Steelers. ^[2]Only one team has gone in the other direction: the 2000 Rams led the league in scoring but also ranked last in points allowed. There have been just 31.1 points per game scored in Broncos games this season.  In the last 25 seasons, only two other times has that happened: the famed 2000 Ravens teams, and the 2005 Bears team that tried to replicate that approach, using Brian Urlacher as Ray Lewis and Kyle Orton as Trent Dilfer. [continue reading…]

The New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are undeniably in the northeast. I think most would include the Buffalo Bills are as well, although they do play in western New York. The state of Pennsylvania is commonly included in the northeast, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to include Pittsburgh, on the western border, in as a team in the northeast. The Baltimore Ravens are only 100 miles away from Philadelphia, but they are also only 40 miles from Washington, D.C., and no sensible definition of “Northeast” should include the nation’s capital.

So I’m going to stick with the NE-NYG-NYJ-PHI-BUF pairing as the definition of Northeast football. And only two years ago, it looked really bad: [continue reading…]

Ten years ago, I looked at the passing distribution of NFL teams since 1970. Let’s revisit that post today, with an expanded look at what’s happened over the last decade.

I examined every season in the NFL since 1970, when the AFL and NFL merged. ^[1]It is not lost on me that NFL history is not linear, and in many ways, the 1960s is more similar to the 1980s than the 1970s. That said, out of laziness, I only went back to 1970. I then calculated the percentage of receiving yards for each team that went to its running backs, tight ends and wide receivers. The graph below shows the breakdown from each season from 1970 through 2021. ^[2]Some caveats: Obviously many players straddle the line across multiple positions. There are some judgment calls involved with H-Backs, tight ends turned wide receivers, running backs turned tight … Continue reading. There are two large trends: wide receivers have become slightly more important over time, jumping from 53% of the receiving pie during the ’70s to 63% over the last ten years. The entire jump, though, came in the aftermath of the 1978 rules changes, as the percentage of receiving yards that went to wide receivers steadily rose form 53% in 1977 to 62% in 1987 and 1988.

The other notable change is the switch in primacy of the tight end relative to the running back. From 1970 to 1983, running backs gained 27% of all receiving yards while tight ends picked up just 19% of the pie. That breakdown was pretty consistent each season: tight ends were at 18%, 19%, or 20% almost every season, and running backs consistently gained between 25% and 29& of the receiving game. The 1984 season was a weird outlier: running back production was way down while tight end production was up, but that was mostly a one year blip. From 1985 to 1994, running backs averaged 22% of the pie, a noticeable decrease from the pre-1984 era, but tight ends dropped, too, down to 15% during that decade. And from 1986 through 2007, tight ends were under 20% of the receiving pie each year. But tight ends have held steady at 20 or 21 percent, while running back production in the receiving game has dropped to about 16%. In 2004, tight ends gained more receiving yards as a group than running backs, and it has remained that way in every season since. This is strongly tied, of course, to the near-elimination of the fullback position from the modern game. [continue reading…]

In 1999 and 2000, no team in NFL history relied on one running back quite like the Indianapolis Colts.  During those two seasons, Edgerrin James was responsible for 98% of all carries given to Colts running backs, 99% of all rushing yards from Indianapolis running backs, and 98% of all yards from scrimmage and 97% of all touchdowns scored by Colts running backs.  The table below shows the stats from the nine running backs to play for the Colts during these two seasons: [continue reading…]

Twenty years ago, in the summer of 2002, Doug Drinen wrote this about Running Back By Committee:

Any way you want to look at it, the use of RBBC has been decreasing for about three decades. In 2000, RBBC was at an all-time (since 1970) low. In 2001, it was back up slightly, but was still lower than it has ever been.

Drinen labeled a running back by committee (RBBC) if the team’s top running back scored less than half of the team’s total fantasy points by running backs. How do things look over the last 20 years? ^[1]In my effort re-create Drinen’s study, I am defining fantasy points as (receptions / 2) + (rushing yards + receiving yards) / 10 + (rushing TDs + receiving TDs ) * 6. [continue reading…]

Adam Steele is back again, this time with a look at teams resting their starters over the years. Bless him.

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Over the past few years I’ve been documenting the historical instances of teams resting their starters in late season games. I like to remove such games when comparing teams since even a single upside down result can warp a club’s statistical profile (especially since these meaningless games disproportionately affect the best teams in a given season). Now that the 2021 regular season is complete, I figured I might as well share this database with FP readers in hopes that some of you might find it useful or interesting. [continue reading…]

Jonathan Taylor had a season for the ages. Here are the top 10 yards per carry seasons by a running back with at least 300 carries:

The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say, 2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosen flamed out immediately, Sam Darnold proved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker Mayfield’s stock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the 2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020, he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allen is an unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline in passing efficiency this season.

All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below average as passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding Rosen) being in the bottom five of the NFL in interception rate.

This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021? With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I did. [continue reading…]

The Minnesota Vikings have played a lot of close games this season.  In fact, all but one of their games was decided by 8 or fewer points, and the average margin of victory — regardless of who won the game — has been just 5.15 points.

[continue reading…]

On Monday Night Football, the Bills and Patriots squared off in a game defined by the elements. The temperature was 36 degrees at kickoff, with heavy winds and some mix of rain and snow. There was a 15-yard punt by the Patriots going into the wind in the 1st quarter, and a 71-yard punt by New England kicking with the wind in the 4th quarter. New England opted for a 2-point conversion try after the team’s only touchdown of the game. But by far the most meaningful impact came in the Patriots pass/run run ratio: New England wound up passing on just three of 49 plays! That’s a 6.1% pass ratio, highlighted by a stretch of 32 consecutive runs in the middle of the game.  Bill Belichick will be remembered as coming up with a great game plan in poor weather, asking almost nothing out of his rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

Since 1950, that made this just the fifth game where a team ran on at least 93% of its plays. Let’s review the the other four now: [continue reading…]

InIn one of the first posts at Football Perspective, I looked at the leaders in rushing yards over every 10-year period. The question asked in that article was who would ultimately lead the NFL in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021. We can now answer that question.

The answer may surprise you.  I suggested that Trent Richardson was the obvious favorite. Among the names I offered as potential candidates were Mark Ingram, Dion Lewis, Jacquizz Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells, DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Pead, Kendall Hunter, and LaMichael James. I said that we could not rule out college stars like Marcus Lattimore or Michael Dyer or Montee Ball or Malcolm Brown or De’Anthony Thomas.

I said Ray Rice and Ryan Mathews, at 25-year-old in 2012, were probably too old to consider.  That logic applied to 26-year-old stars Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch.  And while they may have been stud running backs, a quartet of 27-year-olds in Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson were clearly too old to consider.

I did not include Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry, as both players were still in high school.  As it turns out, barring injury in 2021, they will both finish in the top 5 of rushing yards from 2012 to 2021 despite both entering the league in 2016.  Ingram, who was a 2nd-year player in 2012, will fall to 6th when Henry and Elliott pass him.  The top 3?  In a big surprise, the 27-year-old Peterson — then still recovering from a torn ACL — will wind up third on the list, and just over 300 yards away from the decade-lead. I named the 24-year-old McCoy one of the top candidates, and he will wind up 2nd on the list.   But the leader in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021? [continue reading…]

After about 215000 words and nearly 400 pages, the Grand List is finally over. ^[1]That’s 391 pages in Times New Roman, 12 font in Word. The list also contained at least six trillion typos, but hopefully no factual inaccuracies. Before I get to updating the list to include the 2020 season, I want to consolidate some of the information from the project.

By design, there were five special teamers and six return men on the team. After that, I went with the players I felt were the best, irrespective of position. Without separating premodern from modern players, and counting two way players by their offensive positions, here is a positional breakdown of the list:

• 90 quarterbacks
• 118 running backs
• 10 blocking fullbacks
• 122 wide receivers or ends
• 41 tight ends
• 77 offensive tackles
• 72 offensive guards
• 44 offensive centers
• 75 defensive ends
• 83 defensive tackles
• 111 linebackers
• 65 cornerbacks
• 62 safeties
• 10 kickers
• 9 punters

Given the number of players at each position that occupy the field at the same time, which has fluctuated as the league has evolved, I don’t think the numbers are too far off from whatever the ideal is. The relative lack of defensive players is explained by the fact that the premodern players played on both side of the ball. So when I count Baugh as a quarterback, I am ignoring his work at safety to avoid double counting, though he obviously played on defense for much of his career. In theory, there should be about the same number of tackles and guards, and that number should be about twice as high as centers. However, it looks like centers are a little high, so I may have been too generous there, or not generous enough with guards and tackles. When looking at the older players, I remember having the impression that, for one reason or another, centers tended to be better on defense. That may explain some of the high number. I think I am a little low on defensive backs, and I will try to further examine my own thoughts on that as I continue to update the list as I gather new information.

When I update the list to include the 2020 seasons, as well as additional study I have done on older players in the time since I began writing the list, I have considered removing special teams players and giving them their own special section. It always felt weird putting even the best kickers on par with a Hall of Fame level defensive end or wide receiver. Hekker and Tucker were right between Tingelhoff and Dorsett on the original list, and I still feel conflicted about that. I believe they are the best ever at their roles, but they barely step foot on the field. I would much rather create a separate section just for guys like them, Hester, and Tasker so I can make room on the top 1000 for players like Joel Bitonio, Joe Thuney, Tre’Davious White, or Tyrann Mathieu. I’d love to hear the opinion of the Football Perspective readership, whom I consider one of the smartest I’ve had the pleasure of encountering. [continue reading…]

We finally made it. This marks the last installment of the Grand List, a countdown of the top one thousand players in pro football history (who spent at least some time in the NFL). I began publishing this list in March 2020, right after the NFL’s centennial season, and had the aspirational goal of publishing the full list before the 2020 season started. By the beginning of the season, I had 399 players remaining. I focused on the 2020 season live rather than trying to work on the list while the season was still ongoing, and I picked back up in March 2021. In order to be fair to active players named in the first 600 players, I made the choice to ignore the 2020 season entirely when moving forward with the list. That means I had to pretend dominant performances from Mahomes, Rodgers and Donald didn’t happen, or that Brady didn’t win another title with a new team and scheme. When I am done with the list, I will make an update to include not only the new information form the 2020 season, but also more film study I hadn’t yet conducted for older seasons. ^[1]Players who had great 2020 seasons will see their status rise—sometimes significantly. There are some older players for whom I had only seen a handful of full games, and adding to the body of … Continue reading

My typical caveats apply here:

• These are based solely on my opinion. I’d like to think that it is a pretty well-reasoned and informed opinion, but it is an opinion nonetheless. As my late grandfather, who got me in to studying the game thirty years ago, used to say: “Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one, and they all stink.” I haven’t sniffed everyone’s opinion, but I think it’s fair to say we all have one others would consider less than rosy. If you find mine appalling and would like to let me know, do so in the comments. Undue praise and deserved criticism are welcome. Please send personal attacks to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.
• Ordinal rankings tend to imply a level of separation that is sometimes essentially nonexistent. I could see arguments for players 2-6 to be in any order. Ditto players 9-20. At some point, it comes down to preference and best-guessing.
• Building on that, rankings are somewhat fluid. Because of the amount of time I have spent studying and thinking about football, I can easily talk myself into and out of an argument for or against a player. With the exception of number one, my placement of most players moved around, sometimes significantly, while constructing the list. When I publish the update, many players will see large changes in rank.
• It’s just football. It probably seems silly to say something like this after writing 200,000+ words for a trivial list, but it’s just entertainment. This stuff doesn’t really matter to me beyond that.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.
The Grand List, part 23: Includes players 100-51.
The Grand List, part 24: Includes players 50-21.

Let’s wrap it up.

[continue reading…]

This marks the penultimate section of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (or something like that). Keep in mind, of course, that I have purposely excluded the 2020 season because I began publishing the list before the season started. It feels a little silly to write as though the past season didn’t happen, but I don’t think it would be fair to count a season for higher ranked players that I didn’t include for lower ranked players. Today’s section covers players 50 through 21, and the top 20 will follow when I get around to it. This range includes many players often considered the greatest of all time at their respective positions, a few modern players who are probably higher here than they appear on most lists, and the last of the premodern stars. I have little doubt everyone who reads will be in complete agreement with these choices.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.
The Grand List, part 23: Includes players 100-51.

We’re almost there.

[continue reading…]

Welcome to the antepenultimate section of the Grand List, in which I count down the top thousand players in pro football history (through 2019, when the countdown began). I have researched the game for decades, with thousands of hours of dedicated film study, obsessive attention to stats both common and obscure, and a frankly pathetic amount of literature consumed. So I would like to think my positions are well-grounded, having been based on thoughtful analysis and a great deal of attention to my own biases to try to account for my own blind spots. However, at the end of the day, I am still just one idiot on the internet making a list that I hope will engage people in friendly discussion about the game we love. All my time spent studying doesn’t make my opinion any more valid than the reader’s. Heck, I can think of a guy famed for his intellect who did plenty of studying at Harvard, and he’s a dunce.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.

Onward we go.

[continue reading…]

It’s time for yet another entry in the Grand List, a countdown of the top 1000 players in pro football history, in one fool’s opinion. ^[1]Remember, this list stops after the first hundred years of the NFL. That means I didn’t consider 2020 in my rankings. When I finish the full list, I plan to re-post an update that includes the … Continue reading We’re getting to the part where more quarterbacks are showing up, which often means increased noise from those who disagree. ^[2]I kindly remind you to send all hate mail to deletesansreading@gmail.com. As a person who hates arguing but loves sharing ideas, I have only brought this nightmare on myself and accept my fate.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.

Let’s get into it.

[continue reading…]

Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. Today’s section has a little something for everyone, with a wide enough distribution of positions to fill a full offense and defense—with subs. There are underrated non-Hall of Famers and legends often cited as the best at their positions. We have ballers from 1925 to the present, with versatile Swiss Army Knife types and guys who happened to do one thing but did it at an all time great level. We’re not at the part yet where people start questioning my sanity or telling me to take a nap in traffic, but we’re getting close!

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.

Words, words, words…

[continue reading…]

The old adage is that you build teams from the inside out. I don’t know if that is or ever has been true, but I know this: with 23 of the 50 players coming from the offensive of defensive line, part 20 of the Grand List is built from the inside out. At the same time, this is perhaps the most diverse section of the list, as it includes a player at every position, including the highest ranked kickers and punters in the series. There isn’t much controversy this time, with every player either a current or future Hall of Famer or a perennial all star. Enjoy.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.

Here we go, then.

[continue reading…]

Warmest regards, friends of the program. Today marks the 19th installment of the Grand List, in which I rank the top one thousand professional football players in history (whose careers preceded or included a good chunk of time in the NFL). In this section, we’ll look at players 299-250. It’s a portion of the list that includes a few players you may expect to see rank much higher, as well as a few players who may have you wondering why they were included in the top 1000 at all. Opinions are all my own and are derived from far too much time studying a meaningless game over a period of about thirty years. If you disagree, that’s great. If all lists looked the same, what a boring life that would be.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.

Let’s go, babies.

[continue reading…]

It’s time for part 18 of the Grand List, or: the top one thousand players in pro football history who played a significant amount of time in the NFL, or something like that. In today’s section of the list, we have likely-to-be-controversial quarterback rankings, a wide range of defensive linemen, a feast of interior blockers, some versatile backs (of both the running and defensive persuasion), several receivers underrated because of the modern passing explosion, and three very different linebackers. Only three active players are featured today, but I will repeat my caveat from last time: because most of this list was presented prior to the 2020 season, last year’s performances—good and bad—will have no bearing on a player’s ranking moving forward. I have every intention of posting the list, in full, with updates, provided Chase lets me publish such a long post. Maybe I’ll just post it as a list and only write about new additions, not to be mistaken for New Editions (so no Mike Bivins). Alas, I have rambled too long.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.

Festina, folks.

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In 2019, Carolina wide receiver D.J. Moore gained 1,175 receiving yards; in 2020 he caught 66 passes for 1,193 yards. Strong seasons, to be sure, but probably not too noteworthy in your head. For instance, over the last two seasons, there have been 15 players who had more than 1,193 receiving yards in either 2019 or 2020.

But among that group, tight end Travis Kelce is the only one who did it in both years. In fact, Moore is the only wide receiver to hit 1,175 yards in both seasons. Drop the threshold to 1,165 yards, and DeAndre Hopkins also joins the group. Drop down to 1,130, and then Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson also make the cut (as does another tight end, Darren Waller). But no matter: if one is playing a game of trivia, D.J. Moore is the answer to the question: which wide receiver topped the highest threshold of receiving yards in each of the past two season?

That’s funky, of course, and a misleading way of implying that Moore might be the best receiver in the NFL. In addition to Kelce, four wide receivers (Diggs, Hopkins, Robinson, and Davante Adams) gained more receiving yards than Moore and a few others (Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, and Tyreek Hill) also have averaged more receiving yards per game than Moore. ^[1]Allen Robinson actually averaged fewer yards per game; Moore played 15 game both years, while Robinson did not miss a game. But misleading stats can also make for fun trivia, so this made me wonder: who are the other D.J. Moore all stars in NFL history?

For example, Michael Thomas crossed the highest threshold in both 2018 and 2019, as he was the only player to top 1,400 yards both seasons. In 2017 and 2018, DeAndre Hopkins had over 1,375 receiving yards both years. In fact, 2019 and 2020 was the first time since the strike-impacted seasons of 1987 and 1988 that no wide receiver topped 1,200 yards both seasons.

The table below shows the leading wide receiver in each pair of seasons since the merger, from the perspective of crossing a certain minimum threshold. [continue reading…]

Welcome to part 17 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history (in my opinion, as of the end of the 2019 season). The original plan for this series was to have it done by the start of the 2020 season. That didn’t happen. In order to keep every player on the same playing field, I’m going to continue the presenting the series without including the 2020 season (it hardly seems fair to exclude 2020 for Nuk Hopkins but include it for Julio). ^[1]Spoiler alert! Quintorris made the list. This portion of the list has something for everyone, unless you fancy yourself a special teams enthusiast. We have passers, pure runners, receiving backs with confusing legacies, antediluvian receivers, linemen and linebackers of all kinds, a cover corner, and some hard hitting safeties. It’s safe to think of everything from this point on as a list of players whose play merits strong Hall of Fame consideration. ^[2]Note, there are several players who would move up (or even onto) the list were I to include 2020. Off the top of my head, I can think of 18 players already on the list who would move up. I can think … Continue reading

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400

Away we go!

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On paper, the Buccaneers added a lot of big names in the offseason. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski from the Patriots, a former top-5 pick at running back in Leonard Fournette, and an All-Pro wide receiver in Antonio Brown. Tampa Bay also hit home runs with its first two draft picks, offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs and cornerback Antoine Winfield Jr..

But the Buccaneers did not have a particularly large amount of turnover compared to recent Super Bowl champions. In fact, by one measure, each of the five previous Super Bowl champions had bigger turnover than Tampa Bay. Other than Brady, most of the big names didn’t have a big impact for Tampa Bay, at least until the Super Bowl. Leonard Fournette had just 367 rushing yards during the regular season; Brown had just 483 receiving yards in 8 games; Gronk averaged 39 yards per game, the lowest mark in his career other than during his rookie season (in ’19, O.J. Howard averaged 33 yards per game for Tampa Bay). Of course, in Super Bowl LV it was a different story: our lasting image of the 2020 Bucs will be Gronkowski scoring 2 touchdowns, Brown catching a touchdown, and Fournette picking up 135 total yards and a touchdown.

How do we compare one team to its squad from the prior year? Great question! It’s tricky: we want to compare not just roster turnover, but the value of those players. The Chiefs added both Brady and LeSean McCoy, but that should not count as equal moves. Similarly, you have to look at how the player was used in the prior season. For example, Kurt Warner was on both the ’98 Rams and the ’99 Rams, but it would be poor analysis to say that the ’99 Rams had the same quarterback as they did the prior year.

Really we want to look at two things: how much was the player a part of the Super Bowl team (to avoid overemphasizing the McCoys of the world) and for players on the team, how much was that player a part of the team the prior year (to avoid the Warner problem). To measure how valuable a player was, I am going to use PFR’s AV, which does as good a job as any other metric to compare the value of players across positions and eras. For each player on each Super Bowl team, I will measure how much AV they produced as a percentage of the team’s total AV. I will also do that the year before, and then take the lower of those two values.

Let’s use a few examples. The 2020 Buccaneers had 243 points of AV, and Brady had 15 of them; therefore, he was responsible for about 6% of the team’s value. He was not on the team in 2019, of course, so Brady gets a 0 when we calculate how much of the 2019 Bucs were on the 2020 Bucs. That’s a big deal, because there is only 94% of the AV left to allocate. McCoy had just 1 point of AV, or 0.4% of the team’s AV; he also gets a zero since he wasn’t on Tampa Bay in 2019, but that has a much smaller impact. Donovan Smith had about 4% of the AV on the 2019 Bucs and 4% of the AV on the 2020 Bucs; therefore, taking the minimum doesn’t change things; he gets assigned 4%.

If we do this for every player on the 2020 roster, and take the minimum value between the percentage of AV they had for the ’20 Bucs and the percentage of AV they had for the ’19 Bucs, and then sum the results, we get a value of 60%. This may not mean a ton to you in the abstract — it wouldn’t be quite right to say that 40% of the roster turned over — but it is very helpful if we are comparing teams. [continue reading…]

In the modern NFL, the passing game — and the passing offense — is king.  With completion percentages, passing yards, and passing touchdowns continuing to hit all-time highs, and interceptions reaching all-time lows, it’s easy to only focus on each team’s passing game.  But you may have missed not one, but two of the greatest defensive record-breaking seasons of all time.

The NFL record by a defensive player for interceptions in a season is 14, set by Dick “Night Train” Lane in 1952.   A bad faith argument sometimes notes how remarkable it was that Lane did that in a 12-game season, ignoring the fact that interceptions were more than three times more likely per pass attempt back in the early ’50s.  And while pass attempts are going up, because the interception rate has dropped so significantly, the amount of interceptions in each game has significantly decreased over time:

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The 2014 Patriots were not very reliant on the ground team. Jonas Gray led the team in rushing yards with just 412 in 8 games, while Shane Vereen was second with 391 over the full season. Stevan Ridley had 340 in 6 games, while LeGarrette Blount had 281 in five appearances. Even as a team, New England only ranked 18th in rushing yards. And while Blount ran all over the Colts (30/148/3) in the AFC Championship Game, he was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries in the Super Bowl, which still managed to lead the team.

Among the now 110 teams to make the Super Bowl, the 2014 Patriots rank last when it comes to rushing yards gained by their leading rusher. The 1998 Broncos, of course, rank first: Terrell Davis rushed for 2,008 yards that season. The graph below shows the rushing yards (pro-rated to 16 game seasons for years with shorter schedules) for the leading rusher on each Super Bowl team: the winners are shown in black, the losers in green, and the Bucs and Chiefs are shown in team colors. [continue reading…]

Back in 2008, I wrote a four part series detailing the history of the black quarterback.

Six years ago, I updated that article, just as I did last year. Today, in honor of black history month, let’s revisit the history of black quarterbacks in the NFL. And while for the last 53 of those seasons, at least one black quarterback was in the NFL, the roles and treatment of black quarterbacks have varied greatly throughout the Super Bowl era.

The history of black quarterbacks in professional football is complicated. The New York Giants did not have a black quarterback throw a pass until 2007, when Anthony Wright became the first to do so; 10 years later, Geno Smith became the first and only black quarterback to start a game for the Giants, the last team to finally start a black player at quarterback. But as far back as 1920, Frederick Douglass “Fritz” Pollard was the tailback of the Akron Pros; a year later, he was promoted to player/coach, and became the first black head coach in NFL history. Pollard helped the Pros win the championship in the NFL’s inaugural season. ^[1]At the time, the NFL went by the name the American Professional Football Association. It was not known as the NFL until 1922. The Pros ran the single-wing, and Pollard was the player lined up behind the center who received the snaps. At the time the forward pass was practically outlawed, so Pollard barely resembles the modern quarterback outside of the fact that he threw a few touchdown passes during his career. ^[2]In addition to his NFL exploits, Pollard also achieved a great deal of fame for leading Brown to back-to-back road wins over the powerhouse schools of the time, Yale and Harvard, in 1916. He would … Continue reading And, of course, it was a time of significant discrimination: Pollard and end Bobby Marshall were the first two black players in professional football history.

As told by Sean Lahman, at least one African American played in the NFL in every year from 1920 to 1933; while there were several notable black players, Pollard was the only one ^[3]Well, maybe we can include single-wing tailback Joe Lillard, too.  In 1933, he had more than twice as many passing yards and rushing yards as any of his Cardinals teammates. He would then leave the … Continue reading resembling a quarterback. ^[4]It wasn’t just African Americans that had full access during this era: Jim Thorpe coached and starred in a team composed entirely of Native Americans called the Oorang Indians in 1922 and 1923. Beginning in 1934, that there was an informal ban on black athletes largely championed by Washington Redskins owner George Marshall. It wasn’t until 1946 that black players were re-admitted to the world of professional football, when UCLA’s Kenny Washington ^[5]Who occupied the same backfield with the Bruins as Jackie Robinson. and Woody Strode were signed by the Los Angeles Rams; in the AAFC, Bill Willis and Marion Motley were signed by Paul Brown’s Cleveland Browns that same season.
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Two years ago, I wrote that 2018 gave us The Most Offensive-Powered Final Four Ever. Well, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are back, this time joined by the Packers and Aaron Rodgers and the Bills and Josh Allen (as opposed to the Saints and Drew Brees and the Rams and Sean McVay–bot in ’18). In 2018, the top four teams in scoring made it to the final four: it doesn’t get any more clear cut than that.

This year, the top three scoring teams — Green Bay, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay, in order — are in the final four. They are joined by the Chiefs, who ranked 3rd in the AFC (behind Tennessee) and 6th in the NFL in scoring (also behind New Orleans). Saying that Kansas City has the worst offense of any playoff team left is a bit like saying that Batman is the superhero with the weakest powers; you may have a bunch of evidence, but nobody is going to take your claim very seriously. It is also worthwhile to point that that the Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring after 16 weeks, before benching Patrick Mahomes and several other starters in a meaningless week 17 game and falling to 6th in the rankings.

And while this year may not have the final four according to the ranks, it is certainly up there as one of the highest-powered final fours of all time. In 2020, NFL teams averaged 24.8 points per game; the Packers led the league by averaging 31.8 points per game, or 7.0 points per game better than average. There have been 204 teams to make it to the conference championship game since 1970, and I calculated how many points per game each team scored relative to league average in each season. I also did the same for points allowed. The graph below shows all 204 teams, with their points scored per game relative to league average on the X-Axis, and the points allowed metric on the Y-Axis. In other words:

Top right = good offense, good defense
Top left = bad offense, good defense
Bottom left = bad offense, bad defense
Bottom right = good offense, bad defense

As you would expect, most of the teams that make it to the conference championship game fall in the upper right quadrant. I have color-coded the 2020 teams in the graph below. [continue reading…]