Yesterday, I noted that the rate of passing touchdowns has been relatively stable throughout NFL history. But that doesn’t mean the type of passing touchdown hasn’t changed.

In the post-World War II era, the average length of touchdown pass was occasionally over 30 yards! Today, the average length of each touchdown pass is below 20 yards, and it’s been
for every season since 2006. Most of the change came in the ’60s and early ’70s, as opposed to the many changes in passing statistics that are the result of the west coast offense.

The graph below shows the average length of touchdown passes in each professional football season (combining the AFL, AAFC, and NFL) since 1940. [continue reading…]

You might be surprised to learn that despite the passing game becoming more productive than ever, the number of passing touchdowns hasn’t gone up very much. In the early 1950s, teams averaged between 1.3 and 1.5 touchdowns per game; that number has gone up and down a bit over the last 70 years, but last season, teams averaged 1.45 passing touchdowns per game, lower than in 1952.

Rushing touchdowns per game, on the other hand, have seen a more steady decline. The graph below shows the number of passing, rushing, defensive, and special teams touchdowns per team game across each NFL season since 1950. Defensive touchdowns have been pretty consistently around 0.15 per team game, while special teams touchdowns were at 0.05 TD/G. That last number, however, has been in a rapid decline: the last two years were at just 0.03 TD/G.

Here’s another way to look at the same data: the percentage of all passing/rushing/defensive/special teams touchdowns per season.

But if you want to know where the biggest change in NFL scoring has been, you have to look at field goals.

What do you think?

If you were a baseball fan and alive in 1961, you probably remember where you were when Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record with his 61st home run of the season.

One of the most memorable sports moments of the ’90s was on September 8th, 1998, when Mark McGwire his hit 62nd home run of the season, breaking Maris’s record.

And there was no shortage of fan fare when Barry Bonds broke McGwire’s record, hitting his 71st home run of the season on October 6th, 2001.

But Ruth, Maris, McGwire, and Bonds aren’t the only players in the last century to hold the single-season home run record.  Because Sammy Sosa was once held the record for most home runs in a season, and he did it without any fanfare at all.  That’s because it happened on September 25th, 1998 in a game between the Cubs and Astros.. Sosa hit his 66th home run of the season that night, breaking McGwire’s record of 65 home runs. Of course, there were still a few games left, and McGwire had just broken the record with his 62nd home run… and his 63rd, and his 64th, and his 65th home runs. And 45 minutes later, in a Cardinals/Expos game, McGwire hit hit 65th home run of the season, and Sosa would never again stand alone as the single-season record holder but for those 45 minutes.

So why the baseball detour today? Because Tom Brady and Drew Brees may re-create the McGwire/Sosa race in a couple of years.  Two years ago, I noted that both Brady and Brees finished the 2015 season tied with 428 career touchdown passes. Now, both players are tied again with 488 career touchdown passes! So who will finish as the career record-holder?

Right now, Peyton Manning is the passing touchdown king with 539 touchdowns, so Brees and Brady need 52 more touchdown passes to set the mark. Brees will pass Manning as the all-time leader in career passing yards with his 1,496th passing yard of the 2018 season, but it is very unlikely that Brees or Brady challenges Manning’s touchdown mark until 2019.

So how did we get here? The graph below shows how many career touchdowns Brady (in dark blue) and Brees (in gold) had after each week of each season since 2001, the year they both threw their first touchdown pass. [continue reading…]

Background reading (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V: Career Era-Adjusted Passer Ratings Through 2016, 2017 Era-Adjusted Passer Ratings). You can also view the single-season era-adjusted passer ratings here.

The NFL’s passer rating formula can be broken down into the following.

A = (Cmp% – .30) * 5
B = (Y/A – 3.0) * .25
C = TD% * 20
D = 2.375 – Int% * 25

Passer Rating = 100 * (A + B + C + D) / 6

Let’s use Tom Brady as an example.  He has a completion percentage of 63.93 (making A = 1.696), a yards per attempt average of 7.514 (making B = 1.128), a TD percentage of 5.54% (making C = 1.108), and an INT percentage of 1.82% (making D = 1.921).  If you sum A, B, C, and D, multiply by 100, and divide by 6, you get 97.6, which is Brady’s career passer rating.

Last year, I derived the formula to create era-adjusted passer ratings.  This is necessary because the league averages in these variables — particularly completion percentage and interception rate — have changed dramatically over the last 50 years.  For example, when passer rating was created in the early 1970s, the average completion percentage was 50%.  So instead of taking each passer’s completion percentage and subtracting 0.30 (before multiplying by 5), we take each passer’s completion percentage and subtract from that the league average in a given season minus 0.20.  This makes a completion percentage of 60% in the 1970s equivalent to a completion percentage of 70% when the league average completion rate is 60%.

We can do that for all the four variables, and keep the same formula/structure largely in place.

Here are the new formulas for each of the four variables:

A = (Cmp% – (League_Avg_Cmp% – 0.20) ) * 5
B = ( Y/A – (League_Avg_Y/A – 4.0) ) * .25
C = TD% * 20 + (1 – 20 * LgAvgTD_Rate)
D = 2.375 – (Int% * 25 + (1.375 – 25 * LgAvgINT_Rate) )

Then we sum A through D, multiply by 100, and divide by 6.  The table below shows the career era-adjusted passer ratings for the 186 passers with at least 1,500 attempts. Here is how to read the table below. Otto Graham is the career leader in era adjusted passer rating (this analysis includes AAFC and AFL data — we are only adjusting for era in this analysis, not strength of league). He threw 2,626 passes in his career, began in 1946 and finished in 1955, had an actual passer rating of 86.6, and an era adjusted passer rating is 95.2. Graham, of course, is in the Hall of Fame. [continue reading…]

Yesterday is one of my favorite posts — with just one picture, you can see why NFL teams have become more pass-heavy over the last 70 years. It is not debatable that the NFL is more pass-happy now than it used to be: teams really are throwing more often than ever before.

However, what is debatable is whether or not the increase in quantity makes passing more important than ever before. The correlation between ANY/A and winning percentage doesn’t show that passing matters more now than it did in the ’70s. This is because passing efficiency is more compressed now than it used to be, which arguably makes having a great quarterback less important now than ever before.

Lest you think that claim is crazy, note that the starting quarterback for every Super Bowl champion in the ’70s is now in the Hall of Fame: Johnny Unitas (with a hat tip to Earl Morrall), Roger Staubach, Bob Griese (with a hat tip to Earl Morrall), Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Staubach, Bradshaw, and Bradshaw. Heck, 6 of the 10 losing quarterbacks in those games are Hall of Famers: Fran Tarkenton three times, Staubach twice, and Griese, with Craig Morton appearing twice, too.

The graph below shows the standard deviation among all teams in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (the single best measure of passing efficiency) for each team since the merger.  As you can see, the variance is declining, which means the best passing teams aren’t standing out quite as far from average as they used to: [continue reading…]

With Kirk Cousins now in town, Minnesota is perhaps the most talented team in the NFL. But the Vikings are in a loaded NFC, with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, a Saints team that was the most efficient in football in 2017 and was seconds away from beating the Vikings in Minnesota in the playoffs, and a dreamy team in Los Angeles.  Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is back, making another NFC North title no sure thing.

Four years ago, Andrew Healy wrote about the most/least lucky teams when it comes to winning rings. At the time, the Eagles were the most unlucky franchise, but Philadelphia has since won a Super Bowl!  The Vikings were the second most unlucky team, while the Giants and Steelers were the two luckiest teams.

I like Andrew’s methodology and I’m not going to improve on it today, but wanted to run a simpler and quicker study.  In each seasons since the Super Bowl era, count how many games above .500 each team was in each season.  Seasons with .500 or worse records were given a zero.  So the Vikings were +10 in 2017 (13-3), 0 in 2016 (8-8), +6 in 2015 (11-5), 0 in 2014 (7-9), and so on. Since 1966, Minnesota has been +162, with +70 of that coming from 1966 to 1978. [continue reading…]

This offseason, the Rams have traded for three high-profile players: WR Brandin Cooks (13 points of AV last year), CB Marcus Peters (13 points of AV in 2016, 5 points of AV last year), and CB Aqib Talib (14 points of AV in 2016, 9 points of AV last year).  Los Angeles also signed DT Ndamukong Suh (12 points of AV in 2016, 7 points last year).

That’s some top-level talent, at least on paper.  Suh was an AP first-team All-Pro in 2010, 2013, and 2014; the two All-Pro corners in 2016 by the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers Association, and the Sporting News were Talib and Peters. And Cooks is one of just three players to average 1,100 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns over the last three seasons.

And these four stars are joining perhaps the most star-studded team in the NFL:  the Rams had six first-team All-Pros as selected by the Associated Press last year: RB Todd Gurley, LT Andrew Whitworth, and DT Aaron Donald, along with special teamers Greg Zuerlein, Johnny Hekker, and Pharoh Cooper.  Oh, and by the way: QB Jared Goff led the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt last season. Los Angeles is in position to spend in free agency in part because the team’s stars are cheap: the Rams drafted Donald in 2014 (with the team’s second first round pick, after drafting the biggest bust with its first selection), Gurley in 2015, and Goff in 2016, so all three players are being paid well below market value.

So, will the Rams really be as good in real life as they appear on paper?  Los Angeles is adding four new players who had AVs of at least 12 points either last year or the year before.  It’s been 23 years since a team did that, and that team was… the 1994 San Francisco 49ers.  That offseason, they added CB Deion Sanders (AV of 12 in 1993), DE Richard Dent (AV of 12 in 1993), LB Ken Norton (AV of 15 in ’93), and LB Rickey Jackson (AV of 13 in ’93). The 49ers also added C Bart Oates (AV of 10 in ’93). The 49ers already had an incredible offense, and with a better defense — and a better performance against Dallas in the NFCCG — San Francisco finally won another Super Bowl.

In recent years, some other teams have added 4 players with 10 points of AV in the prior year (or two years prior). This includes the 2014 Broncos team that nearly won the Super Bowl but would win it a year later; Denver added DE/LB DeMarcus Ware, C Will Montgomery, S T.J. Ward, and … CB Aqib Talib.

The 2011 Eagles — aka The Dream Team — added CB Nnamdi Asomugha, WR Steve Smith (the bad one), DE Jason Babin, and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, in addition to backup QB Vince Young, who coined the name.

The 2009 Chiefs added QB Matt Cassel, LB Mike Vrabel, WR Chris Chambers, and G Mike Goff.

The 2008 Jets added G Alan Faneca, QB Brett Favre, LB Calvin Pace, and DT Kris Jenkins.

And the 2002 Redskins added LB Jeremiah Trotter, LB Jessie Armstead, OL Larry Moore, and WR Willie Jackson.

The only other teams in modern history: the ’96 Ravens (Eric Turner, Rob Burnett, Tony Jones, and Leroy Hoard), the ’94 Chiefs (Greg Kragen, Eric Martin, Jerrol Williams, and Mark Collins), and ’85 Bills (Joe DeLamielleure, Joe Cribbs, Mike Pruitt, and Vince Ferragamo).

Los Angeles is going all-in on its 2018 roster, which is admirable in many ways. It sure feels like Los Angeles is adding an unusual amount of blue chip talent, and based on these results, the Rams are in pretty rare company.

How do you think the Rams will fare?

In 2017, there were seven former number one overall picks who were their team’s main quarterback: Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, and Carson Palmer. An eighth, Sam Bradford, was going to be the Vikings starter, but he was injured early in the season.

Three more starting QBs were second overall picks: Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, and Mitch Trubisky. And another three were top five picks (Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, and Philip Rivers).

Had former 24th overall pick Aaron Rodgers played a full season, it’s likely that half of all passes thrown in 2017 would have come from players drafted 24th overall or earlier. With the Rodgers injury, the next passer (in terms of draft status) was Paxton Lynch (26th pick), who only threw 45 passes. Players drafted 26th or earlier were responsible for 49% of all passes in 2017. To cross the 50% mark, you need to drop down to 32nd overall, which brings in Drew Brees. Players drafted 32nd overall or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passes in 2017.

That number is down slightly from 2016, in large part because Sam Bradford and Andrew Luck combined for over 1,000 attempts in 2016 and just 43 last year. The NFL also lost over 500 combined attempts from Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill — as a result, in 2016, quarterbacks drafted 18th overall (Joe Flacco) or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passing attempts.

The Flacco line was also the line of demarcation in 2015, which was boosted by having Peyton Manning, Luck, Bradford, and Tannehill as starters relative to 2017. Depending on how this year’s draft goes and how early those quarterbacks start, there’s a good chance that the Flacco line is once again the median mark.

In fact, 2018 could have the 12th overall pick as the median mark, assuming good health (which, of course, is a terrible thing to assume).  But let’s assume that three out of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield wind up as top 12 picks and starting quarterbacks, and let’s place them on the Browns, Jets, and Bills.   That would mean 18 of 32 starters would be top 12 picks.  We would also see 22 of the league’s 32 starters be top-18 draft picks, up from 16 a year ago.

How do we get there? [continue reading…]

Frank Gore is already #5 on the career rushing list, while Adrian Peterson is currently in 12th place (but two years younger). In recent months, I’ve compared Gore and Peterson, as their careers which have been both very similar and very different.  Both had severe knee injuries and might be the two best running backs to ever recover from ACL surgery, and both players are going to wind up very high on the career rushing list. Gore is now the favorite — surprisingly — to finish with more career rushing yards.  On the other hand, Gore is much more of a compiler and Peterson a shining star.  Gore ranks 34th in career rushing yards per game, while Peterson ranks 4th in that category.

So who do you prefer? The guy who ranks 5th in career rushing yards or 4th in career rushing yards per game?  Or, if you like, there’s LeSean McCoy. Gore and Peterson already have crossed the 12,000-yard mark, and McCoy is likely to do so as well; either way, they are the three active players with the most rushing yards, making them a natural source of comparison. And assuming McCoy gets there, they will also be the only three players from this era (not including Tomlinson or younger players) to hit the 12,000-yard mark.

McCoy’s highs weren’t as high as Peterson, but they were a little higher (two first-team All-Pro seasons, a third season as a top-three fantasy running back, six Pro Bowls in the last seven years) than Gore.  And his career volume probably won’t match Gore, but it will probably be higher than Peterson.  McCoy is currently 29th in career rushing yards and 22nd in career rushing yards per game.

Let’s compare the three players year-by-year, starting at age 21. [continue reading…]

From ages 21 to 25, Larry Fitzgerald was remarkable. In NFL history, only Randy Moss had more receiving yards over a player’s first five years in his 20s, and only Moss averaged more yards per game (minimum 50 games). Fitzgerald had three seasons with 1400+ yards before turning 26; Moss had two, and nobody else has had more than one.

But then, Fitzgerald’s career declined during his prime years, making him somewhat like the wide receiver version of Ken Anderson. In the post-Kurt Warner/pre-Carson Palmer era, Fitzgerald’s numbers tanked save for one outlier season in 2011 due to remarkable yards after the catch numbers. During the six seasons from ages 26 to 31 — the prime seasons for most wide receivers — Fitzgerald hit the 1,200 yard mark just once, during that 2011 season.

Thought of another way, of Fitzgerald’s six best seasons by receiving yards, five of them came outside of the 26-31 window.  I looked at the 42 players with 10,000 receiving yards who have already played through their age 34 seasons.  I then calculated their average production in each year from age 21 to 34 (whether they played in the NFL or not), to set a baseline average for each season.  Then, I calculated their percentage of receiving yards at age X vs. their average level.  That is in black below.  I also included Fitzgerald’s production relative to his baseline in red and yellow.

As you can see, Fitzgerald was way more productive than even the average elite wide receiver in his early 20s. But at age 26 and 27 he was below-average, and then he was well below average at ages 29, 30, and 31. His production the last three years has been back in line with that of the average elite wide receiver, meaning he’s been right around his career average.

Here’s another way to think of it: Fitzgerald gained 6,176 receiving yards during his “prime years” from ages 26 to 31, and 7,180 in the three years before and after those prime years. From ‘2009 to 2014, Arizona ranked 26th in Net Yards per Attempt; meanwhile, from ’06 to ’08 the Cardinals ranked 6th in NY/A and then 12th over the last three years.

In some ways, this makes him similar to Charlie Joiner, who struggled during his prime years but etched out a Hall of Fame career. Fitzgerald is a better receiver than Joiner was, but if you start with a higher baseline, you can squint and see the career parallels.

The table below shows, for the 42 receivers identified above, their total receiving yards in their six prime seasons from age 26-31, their total receiving yards in the six surrounding seasons (SSS) from ages 23-25 and 32-34, and the difference. Only Joiner has a larger negative (i.e., better outside of his prime years) than Fitzgerald:

Fitzgerald actually gained fewer receiving yards during the six prime seasons than the average receiver on this list, but he had the second-most receiving yards during the six surrounding seasons. Football Perspective favorite Joey Galloway also makes an appearance near the top of the list, which won’t surprise regular readers.

What stands out to you?

Today’s guest post comes from Miles Wray, a long-time reader of the site. He’s written an interesting post on special teams today, but you may know him as the host of the daily NBA podcast The 82 Review. You can also find him on Twitter @mileswray. What follows are Miles’ words: as always, we thank our guest writers for their contributions.

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As Chase noted in December, the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson had an opportunity to be just the fifth quarterback to lead his NFL team in rushing yards — an accomplishment that even Michael Vick can’t claim. In the final weeks of the season, Wilson absolutely coasted home with this dubious title belt: he racked up 586 rushing yards, the second-highest total in his career.

That historically rare achievement may mask the historically unprecedented scenario in Seattle’s running backs room. Since the NFL schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978, there had only been six previous times when, at the end of the regular season, a team’s leading running back or fullback finished with less than 350 total yards. ^[1]Excluding strike-shortened seasons. But in all six of those other cases, that leading rusher still managed to top 300 yards on the season. Well, nobody in Seattle got past 250 this year:

[continue reading…]

Over the last three days, I have been writing about the fact that points scored isn’t linearly correlated with winning percentage.  In fact, there are a few bumps, and it relates to field goals vs. touchdowns.  As we’ve learned:

• Not only is scoring 13 points better than scoring 14 points, but scoring 9 points is better than 14 points.
• This works for increments on 7, too: 16 is better than 21, 23 is better than 28, and 30 is better than 35, too.

What I thought was the next natural question: do yards and yards allowed follow a similar pattern?

The graph below shows, in blue, the average number of yards gained for teams based on their points scored (on the X-Axis).  In addition, in orange, I’ve shown the average number of yards allowed.  As before, I put a red dot (on the blue line) for 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 48, and 56 points.  And wouldn’t you know: there is, in fact, a small dip in yards gained at these levels: teams that score 13 points gain more yards than teams that score 14 points, and that holds true at 20/21, 27/28, 34/35, and 41/42. [continue reading…]

Over the last two days, I’ve looked at the football oddity that teams that score 13 points had a better winning percentage than teams that scored 14 points.  Today, let’s look at the winning percentage for all points scored.

That’s what the graph below shows: the winning percentage, based on points scored, for all points scored totals from zero to sixty.  To make it a little easier to follow, I’ve colored in red the multiples of 7; as you can see, those numbers (7, 14, 21, and 28) also represent dips in the graph.  What’s interesting is that three field goals is better than two touchdowns across a number of multiples. For example, scoring 9 points is better than scoring 14 points, scoring 16 points is better than 21 points, scoring 23 points is even better than scoring 28 points, and scoring 30 points is better than 35 points.  Take a look:

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I wrote about the peculiar bit of trivia that teams scoring exactly 13 points win more frequently than teams scoring exactly 14 points. There were some great comments in those posts, and today, I want to get a little more granular with the data.

From 1999 to 2016, there were 462 games where a team scored exactly 13 points by two field goals and one touchdown, and 382 games where a team scored exactly 14 points by two touchdowns and two extra points. Note: the data set in today’s post is limited to 13-point games with 2 FG + 1 TD and 14-point games with 2 TDs (and 2 XPs); all other avenues to 13 or 14 points were discarded. In the 13-point games, teams won 26.2% of the time and allowed 19.7 points; in the 14 point games, teams won 14.1% of the time and allowed 24.8 points.

So the 13-point scoring teams allowed 5 fewer points per game than the 14-point scoring teams, which of course explains why they have a better record.  What about when those scores occurred? On average, the 13-point scoring teams produced their three scores at 15.6 minutes, 31.7 minutes, and 47.4 minutes of game play — in other words, early 2nd quarter, early 3rd quarter, and early 4th quarter. Meanwhile, the 14-point scoring teams scored at the 22-minute mark and the 43-minute mark, or midway through the 2nd quarter and at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Does that mean anything? I’m not so sure.  So instead, let’s break things into 5-minute buckets.  How early into the game did these teams first score?

The 13-point teams produced their first score in the first quarter in 53% of games; conversely, the 14-point teams only scored in the 1st quarter in 36% of games.  In 83% of games, the 13-point scoring teams had scored by the 25-minute mark, compared to just 60% of 14-point scoring teams.  Of course, the 13-point scoring teams are often scoring field goals, while the 14-point scoring teams are only scoring touchdowns.

What about their second scores?  For 13-point scoring teams, a whopping one-third of teams scored for the second time in the final 5 minutes of the first half.   For the 14-point scoring teams, 41% of those teams were at 7 points until the final 10 minutes of the game, with 25% stuck at 7 until the final 5 minutes.

Teams that scored 14 points but had their second touchdown come in the final 10 minutes went 20-136, for a 12.8% winning percentage. That dropped to 10.5% — a 10-85 record — when the second score came in the final 5 minutes.

Finally, what about the field goal kicking teams? When did their third score occur?

There were also 9 games where the 13-point scoring team scored in overtime, which were all wins.  But teams also won 35.8% of games where the third field goal came in the final five minutes of regulation, for a 49-88 record.

There’s some evidence that time of possession plays a factor in the 13 vs. 14 phenomenon, and it’s possible (although I am not particularly persuaded) that scoring on three drives may have some marginal benefit above scoring on two drives. But for the most part, I think this phenomenon is the result of survivorship bias.  Teams that score a field goal late are often going to win games, even (especially!) if they don’t score a lot of points overall.

Back in November 2006 (I have been writing on the internet for too long!), I wrote that teams that scored 13 points had a better winning percentage than teams that had scored 14 points. That post was in response to an insightful eye from regular commenter Bill M., who first noticed the discrepancy. A few days later, Doug expounded on the topic, and came up with a couple of possible explanations.

As it turns out, this phenomenon still hold. From 1970 to 2017 (postseason included), teams that scored exactly 13 points in a game have a 308-871-10 record, for a winning percentage of .263. Over that same period, teams that scored 14 points went just 221-991-4, which translates to a .183 winning percentage.

Are you wondering if this is a relic of an older era? Well, over the last 10 seasons, teams that scored exactly 13 points went 44-206-2 (.179), while teams that scored 14 points went 26-181-0 (.126). In addition, since 2008, teams that scored 20 points (13 + a touchdown) have a 147-221 record (.399), which is a lot better than teams that scored exactly 21 points (14 + a touchdown), who have an ugly 50-117 mark (.299). The same rule holds even more strongly for 27 points (228-80-2, for a .739 winning percentage) vs. 28 points (88-58, or .603).

So, what gives? Let’s stick to the 13 and 14 point situations and begin with an experiment. There have been 138 games from 1970 to 2017 that ended in a score of 13-10. Knowing that, how many games do you think had a final score of 14-10?

I’ll give you the answer in moment, but let’s start with the obvious note: despite the small number of games that end in a 14-13 score, we know that teams that score exactly 13 points win more games than teams that score exactly 14 points. This means, of course, that teams that score 13 points must hold opponents to under 13 points at a higher rate than teams that score 14 points hold opponents to under 14 points, because #math. It’s true that, on average, teams that score 13 points allow fewer points – for whatever reason – than teams that score 14 points. Does that help inform your guess?

As it turns out, just 52 games have ended in a 14-10 final score. Such a result is so rare that in the last 5 years, it’s happened just once: in a Dolphins/Rams game that was 10-0 with 5 minutes left and 10-7 with one minute remaining. So while it’s a tautology, what’s driving this weird result is that teams score 13 points allow fewer points than teams that score 14 points.

Is there something special about 13 points relative to 14 points that’s driving that result? If so, presumably it’s related to 13 points being most often resulting from a touchdown and two field goals, while 14 points typically coming from two touchdowns. Therefore, I looked at all games where teams scored exactly 13 or 14 points by only one way for each score: two field goals, one touchdown, and an extra point, or two touchdowns with two extra points.

In those cases, from 1970-2016 (I don’t have 2017 data incorporated yet), teams that have kicked two field goals and scored one touchdown (with one extra point) are 291-722-10 in 1,023 games, for a 0.289 winning percentage. Meanwhile, teams that scored two touchdowns and two extra points and nothing else went 213-942-4 in 1,159 games, for a 0.186 winning percentage.

The graph below shows the points allowed by teams in these situations on a percentage basis. For example, when teams score 13 points by one touchdown and two field goals, they have allowed just 10 points about 13% of the time; conversely, teams that score 14 points from 7+7 allow only 10 points about 4% of the time.

Teams that score 13 points are much more likely to allow just 3, 7, or 10 points.

So what’s going on here? Part of it, I think, is that teams down 31-7, they aren’t going to kick a field goal late in the game, but if the score is 10-10, they will attempt a field goal.

What do you think? What other studies would you want to run?

This year’s Super Bowl will be played in Minneapolis, Minnesota at U.S. Bank Stadium, the second-year facility that hosts the Minnesota Vikings during the regular season. That game will be the 52nd Super Bowl, and 44 of the first 51 were played at the home stadium of an AFL or NFL team.

First, let’s look at the seven — well, really three- exceptions where the game was played at a non-NFL/AFL site. In two of the three cases, a home region team has made it to that Super Bowl.

• The Oilers played at Rice Stadium for their first three seasons before moving to the Astrodome. Super Bowl VIII, featuring the Dolphins and Vikings, was award to Houston and Rice Stadium (likely over the Astrodome because of the larger seating capacity). The Oilers went 1-13 that season.

• The Super Bowl concluding the 1979 season was played at the Rose Bowl, which has been the site for 5 Super Bowls.  That year, the Los Angeles Rams won the NFC. The Rams played home games at the Coliseum, a mere 25 minutes from the Rose Bowl.

Park in San Francisco.

• Five years later, the 49ers — who played home games at Candlestick Park — won the NFC.  That year, the Super Bowl was played at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, the only other non-NFL venue to host a Super Bowl.  Stanford Stadium is just 30 miles from Candlestick Park in San Francisco.

In the other 44 instances prior to 2017, the host team (or teams, in the case of the Jets and Giants with regards to Super Bowl XLVIII) failed to make the postseason in 37 times. That leaves 7, and now 8, instances where the team that hosted the Super Bowl also made the postseason. Let’s review, in descending order of likelihood of making that year’s Super Bowl.

#8: 2016 Houston Texans (Super Bowl LI played at NRG Stadium)

The Houston Texans made the playoffs last season, but the 9-7 Texans had a points differential of a 6.5-win team. Brock Osweiler and the Texans actually won their first playoff game, but it came against a Raiders team down Derek Carr and starting third string QB and rookie Connor Cook.  Houston lost as 16-point underdogs to New England in the Divisional Round, and was never a real Super Bowl threat.

#7: 1998 Miami Dolphins (Super Bowl XXXIII played at Pro Player Stadium)

The ’98 Dolphins went 10-6, but were never viable contenders for the Super Bowl. Miami lost the AFC East to the Jets and played in a conference with the eventual Super Bowl champion Broncos.  But Miami still had Dan Marino and young versions of Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and Sam Madison. After beating the Bills in the Wild Card round by stopping Buffalo on a last-minute goal-line stand, the Dolphins were trounced the following week in Denver, 38-3.

#6: 2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Super Bowl XXXV played at Raymond James Stadium)

Tampa Bay made it to the NFC Championship Game the prior year, and went 10-6 in 2000 behind Shaun King and, more importantly, a dominant pass defense.  The Bucs made the playoffs as a Wild Card entrant, and had to travel to Philadelphia in the first round.  Playing in brutal weather with 11 degree wind chill, Tampa Bay was held to 199 yards and 3 points in a loss.

#5: 1994 Miami Dolphins (Super Bowl XXIX played at Joe Robbie Stadium)

The Dolphins won the AFC East and then beat Joe Montana and the Chiefs in the first round of the AFC playoffs. In the Divisional Round, the Dolphins went to San Diego to face an upstart Chargers team… and nearly blew San Diego out of the stadium. Miami took a 21-6 lead into the locker room, but the Chargers slowly chipped away at the lead.  San Diego threw a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute to complete the comeback and take a 22-21 lead.  A late pass interference penalty set Miami up for a 48-yard field goal and the win, but Pete Stoyanovich’s try was wide right, ending Miami’s season.

#4: 2014 Arizona Cardinals (Super Bowl XLIX played at University of Phoenix Stadium)

The Cardinals started the season 9-1, including a 6-0 mark under Carson Palmer. But Palmer tore his ACL against the Rams, turning the job over to Drew Stanton… who went 5-3 as a starter before suffering his own knee injury.  Arizona was a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Palmer and had a chance to win the #1 seed in the NFC and host all of their playoff games — including a potential Super Bowl.  But Ryan Lindley started the team’s Wild Card game against the Panthers, had one of the worst passing games in postseason history, and Arizona was one and done in the playoffs.

#3: 1978 Miami Dolphins (Super Bowl XIII played at the Orange Bowl)

The 1978 Dolphins went 11-5 and were one of just three teams (Pittsburgh, Dallas) to outscore their opponents by 100 points during the regular season.  Miami had the fewest giveaways in the NFL (30) and led the NFL with 53 takeaways. The Dolphins had a dominant interior line (Bob Kuechenberg, Jim Langer, Larry Little), an all-pro running back in Delvin Williams, and QB Bob Griese led the NFL in completion percentage and made the Pro Bowl.

The Dolphins were 6.5-point road favorites in Houston in the Wild Card round.  In the regular season, a rookie Earl Campbell arrived on the national scene with 199 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 35-30 Monday Night football win in Miami. The playoff game was much lower scoring: the teams were tied at seven apiece heading into the fourth quarter, but the Oilers ultimately won, 17-9. Houston outgained Miami 455-209, and the Dolphins turnover luck ran out: Miami committed five turnovers, and had just one takeaway in the loss.

#2: 1970 Miami Dolphins (Super Bowl V played at the Orange Bowl)

The 1970 Dolphins were the baby version of the perfect team that went 17-0 two years later. Griese, Larry Csonka, Mercury Morris, and Jim Kiick were all in Miami and 25 years or younger. Wide receiver Paul Warfield was also in town, and in the prime of his playing career.  Miami went 10-4 but finished the season on a 6-game winning streak, including a 34-17 win over Johnny Unitas and the eventual Super Bowl champion Colts.

In the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the Dolphins traveled to Oakland to face the Raiders.  Miami was burned by two big plays: Willie Brown had a 50-yard pick six to give Oakland a 14-7 lead in the third quarter, and Daryle Lamonica hit Rod Sherman for an 82-yard bomb early in the fourth. The Dolphins responded with a touchdown drive, but trailing 21-14, Miami’s two-minute drill ended — and Super Bowl hopes — ended on downs.

#1: 2017 Minnesota Vikings (Super Bowl LII played at U.S. Bank Stadium)

The Vikings finished the regular season 13-3 and have earned a playoff bye and the #2 seed in the NFC.  With #1 seed Philadelphia’s starting quarterback Carson Wentz out for the rest of the season, the Vikings are the clear conference favorites according to Vegas to make it to the Super Bowl. Minnesota ranked 4th in DVOA, and Football Outsiders give the Vikings a 30% chance of making the Super Bowl, the highest of any NFC team. And if the Eagles lose in the Divisional Round, Minnesota won’t leave the state at all during the postseason.

Minnesota allowed just 252 points this year, the fewest in the NFL. DE Everson Griffen, OLB Anthony Barr, and CB Xavier Rhodes made the Pro Bowl; safety Harrison Smith had 5 interceptions and is the #1 safety in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus.  The Vikings have stars at every level of the defense, and are equally dominant against both the run and the pass.

On offense, Minnesota is short on name power but undrafted stars Case Keenum and Adam Thielen lead en efficient and productive attack. Minnesota has beaten the NFC West (Rams) and NFC South (Saints) champions this year, and the Vikings are 7-1 at U.S. Bank Stadium this year. The Vikings have as good a chance as any team has ever had to not only play in, but win, the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

There have been many great running back pairs in NFL history. The standard bearers when it comes to running back pairs both played in NFL at the time the AFL was born: Jim Brown and Bobby Mitchell in Cleveland, and Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor in Green Bay. Any great running back pair needs more than one season, but when it comes to just one year of dominance — since the AFL/NFL merger — I am not sure if any pair can top what Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara of the Saints have done this year.

Kamara is currently 4th among running backs in fantasy points using 0.5 points per reception (the middle ground between PPR and non-PPR leagues) with 252.1 fantasy points.  Meanwhile, Ingram is just behind him in 5th place with 247.6 fantasy points (awarding 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving and 6 points for every touchdown).  Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Kareem Hunt are your top three running backs with 355.3, 303.1, and 261.2 fantasy points, respectively, and then Melvin Gordon (243.7) and LeSean McCoy (231.9) are the only other running backs with over 200 fantasy points.

So no matter what Kamara and Ingram do this weekend (and the Saints are playing for the NFC South title this weekend, so the incentive is there for them to do well), they will both finish in the top 7 among all running backs. And guess what: that has never happened since the AFL-NFL merger.

In fact, just 8 times has a team had two top-10 running backs over this time.  In reverse chronological order…. [continue reading…]

I saw an interesting tweet yesterday:

My first thought was, “No way!” But then again, the leading RB in receiving touchdowns is a pretty obscure category, so who knows. Well, it turns out McDowell is correct (at least back to 1970, which is as far as I checked; before 1970 you are dealing with much smaller leagues, anyway).

So yes, Todd Gurley really does have a running back quadruple crown: he leads all running backs in rushing yards (1,305; Kareem Hunt is second with 1,292); rushing TDs (13; Mark Ingram is second with 12); receiving yards (Alvin Kamara has 742) and receiving TDs (6; Kamara and Christian McCaffrey each have 5).  That is not going to hold up, as Gurley will rest this weekend as the Rams have clinched the NFC West but can not get the 1 or the 2 seed in the NFC.  But for now, it is pretty remarkable, if from nothing else than from a trivia perspective.

In fact, since 1970, only two running backs — Jamaal Charles in 2010 and Arian Foster in 2013 — have led all running backs in three out of those four carries. Charles ranked 3rd in rushing yards that year, Foster ranked 7th in this receiving TDs.

The table below shows all running backs since 1970 whose average rank in these four categories was 5.0 or lower. [continue reading…]

Jimmy Garoppolo is now 5-0 as a starter for the Patriots and 49ers. This, despite being an underdog in 3 of his first 5 starts:

[continue reading…]

The Minnesota Vikings have a pretty good passing game: through 14 weeks, the Vikings rank in the top 10 in both ANY/A and passer rating. What makes it really weird is that the top two members of the passing game — the quarterback and leading receiver — were both undrafted free agents. Case Keenum went undrafted in 2012 after a stellar career at the University of Houston. The Vikings leading receiver is Adam Thielen, who went undrafted in 2013 out of Minnesota State–Mankato. Together, they are the driving force behind the 2017 Vikings efficient passing attack.

The Vikings will become just the 7th team since 1970 with their top passer and top receiver both having gone undrafted.

• The 2014 Browns had Brian Hoyer and Andrew Hawkins, although unlike the Vikings, this team wasn’t very good. Cleveland went 7-9 (which is of course, very good for Cleveland) and ranked 23rd in ANY/A.

• The 2009 and 2010 Cowboys make the list, too, thanks to Miles Austin and a pair of quarterbacks. In 2009, Tony Romo and the Cowboys ranked 4th in ANY/A and went 11-5; the next year, with Romo hurt, Jon Kitna led Dallas in passing but the team went 6-10 and ranked 12th in ANY/A.

• In 2004, the Titans passing attack was led by Billy Volek and Drew Bennett. For a short run, the combination was outstanding, but overall, the Titans finished 19th in ANY/A and 5-11.

• In 2000, Jay Fiedler and Orande Gadsen were the key components in a mediocre Miami passing attack. Those Dolphins teams were defined by their defense, and the Dolphins went 11-5 despite ranking 19th in ANY/A.

• In 1992, Dave Krieg joined the Chiefs as a 34-year-old veteran. He was undrafted, as was Willie Davis, who had zero NFL catches to his name prior to the season. Davis wound up leading the Chiefs in receiving, and together, Krieg and Davis helped the Chiefs rank 8th in ANY/A and finish 10-6.

The table below shows all teams since 1970 where neither the quarterback nor the leading receiver (in receiving yards) were drafted within the first 200 picks. It is sorted by ANY/A rank that season:

There are, unsurprisingly, a few combinations that show up multiple times on the list. Warren Moon and Drew Hill were the key parts of the Oilers passing game for five straight years in the back half of the ’80s. Wade Wilson and Anthony Carter made the list for their work with the Vikings in ’87, ’88, and ’89. Steve DeBerg and Stephone Paige did it with the Chiefs from ’88 to ’90. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson led the Bills in passing and receiving, respectively, in 2010, 2011, and 2012. And Brian Sipe and Reggie Rucker led the Browns in ’76, ’77, and ’78.

What stands out to you?

The Jacksonville Jaguars currently lead the NFL in three categories that correlate strongly with winning: rushing yards, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and points allowed. It’s pretty freakin’ rare for a team to lead the NFL in all three of those categories; since 1950, it’s only happened six times.

In 2009, the Mark Sanchez/Thomas Jones/Darrelle Revis Jets pulled off that feat. New York ranked 27th in ANY/A and underachieved significantly relative to its Pythagorean record. The Jets snuck into the playoffs but then lost in the AFC Championship Game.

In 1985 and 1986, the Chicago Bears did it in consecutive years. We all know about the 15-1 team from 1985, and Jim McMahon and the offense ranked 6th in ANY/A and won the Super Bowl. In ’86, the Bears ranked 17th in ANY/A, McMahon was injured, and Doug Flutie was the quarterback in the team’s lone playoff game, a home loss to Washington where the team did take a 13-7 lead into the locker room.

In 1972, the Dolphins led the NFL in a host of categories, including that 14-0 regular season record. And while Miami led the NFL in rushing yards, ANY/A allowed, and points allowed, but also in ANY/A.

In 1969, the AFL’s Chiefs pulled off the trick and ranked 4th in ANY/A in the 10-team AFL. Like the ’72 Dolphins and ’85 Bears, this team won the Super Bowl.

In 1962, the Packers — you know, maybe the greatest team of all-time — were the first team since the 1949 Eagles to lead the NFL in ANY/A allowed, points allowed, and rushing. The Packers, of course, won it all, too.

Nobody is going to confuse Blake Bortles with Bart Starr, Len Dawson, or Bob Griese, or even Jim McMahon or Earl Morrall. But can Bortles be Mark Sanchez good, or just a little bit better? The Jaguars currently rank 17th in ANY/A and Bortles ranks 17th in Total QBR. So how have previous Jaguars-esque teams fared? [continue reading…]

Here’s a look at the 2017 rushing leaders for the Seattle Seahawks:

You might have noticed that quarterback Russell Wilson actually leads the team in rushing yards.  Which is… pretty unusual.  Excluding situations when players who didn’t enter the NFL as a running back but played that position (like Ty Montgomery or Denard Robinson), only twice in the last 20 years has a non-RB led his team in rushing yards.  Do you know who and when?

Before them, the last player was Randall Cunningham – who did it for the 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990 Eagles. The only other time since the merger that a non-RB has led his team in rushing yards was Bears quarterback Bobby Douglass in 1972.

And before Douglass, you have to go back to 1960, when Lenny Moore led the Colts in rushing yards the year after moving to wide receiver (he still actually led the team in carries, too, but Alan Ameche was the fullback and Alex Hawkins was the running back; Moore finished with 936 receiving yards and 374 rushing yards). Also that year, Jets (well, Titans) quarterback Al Dorow led the expansion franchise in rushing yards.

Positional designations get a little tricky pre-1960, but a few other quarterbacks pulled off the feat in the ’50s. Tobin Rote led the Lions in rushing in 1958, and the Packers in rushing in 1951, 1952, and 1956. Charley Trippi led the Cardinals in rushing in 1951 and 1952, although the 1952 Cardinals had the greatest four-way race for a franchise rushing title you’ll ever see.

This is a long way of saying it’s going to be pretty noteworthy if Wilson leads the Seahawks in rushing, which seems very likely to happen.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 10-1 for the fourth time in franchise history. The Eagles have never started a season 11-0, so this season makes the short list for best start in franchise history.

In 1948, behind head coach Greasy Neale, QB Tommy Thompson, and future HOFers RB Steve Van Buren and WR Pete Pihos, and RB Bosh Pritchard, the Eagles went 9-2-1 and won the NFL title.  In 1949, the Eagles brought back Neale, Thompson, Van Buren, Pihos, and Pritchard, and had similar success.  The team lost to the Bears in week 4 but finished the regular season with a sparkling 11-1 record. Philadelphia repeated as champions, defeating the Rams 14-0 in the NFL title game.

In 1980, the Eagles lost to the Cardinals in week 4, but started the season 11-1 before finishing 12-4 and winning the NFC.  The head coach was Dick Vermeil, the QB was Ron Jaworski, and while RB Wilbert Montgomery and WR Harold Carmichael were the stars on offense, Philadelphia sported a dominant defense that ranked 1st in points allowed, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed, net yards per pass attempt allowed, and rushing yards allowed.  Alas, despite being 3-point favorites, the Eagles lost in the Super Bowl to the Raiders.

The 2004 Eagles was the best Philadelphia team of the modern era.  The team began the season 13-1, with the only loss coming to the 15-1 Steelers in Pittsburgh.  Philadelphia clinched the NFC East after week twelve. The Packers were the 2nd best team in the NFC, and the Eagles bludgeoned them in December 47-3 before a pair of garbage time touchdowns. Philadelphia had a great defense, but the offense centered around Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Terrell Owens was unstoppable. In the 14th game, however, Owens broke his fibula and injured his ankle; expected to miss the rest of the year, Owens returned for the Super Bowl, but it was not enough: Philadelphia fell to the Patriots.

If you are an Eagles fan, that’s some pretty good company: all three teams made it to the championship game.

This year’s team seems worthy of being in that discussion. Philadelphia leads the NFL with a 31.9 points per game average, thanks in part to an otherwordly (and unsustainable) red zone success rate of 73.3%.  The Eagles rank 8th in points per game allowed (17.4), and rank in the top 10 in just about every major defensive category.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL in points differential, at 14.5 per game.  That’s also the 3rd best in Eagles history through 11 games, behind the ’49 team (+19.6), ’48 team (17.8), and ahead of the 1980 team (+14.3). [continue reading…]

One of the very first trivia questions posted at Football Perspective was about the first quarterback to lose 100 games as a starter. You might have thought that the answer was Archie Manning (35-101-3 career record), but he only had the worst record of all-time; he wasn’t the first to get to 100 losses (answer in the original post). (Actually, that post now appears to have been wrong. At some point since 2012, PFR has updated the career record of Norm Snead from 52-99-7 to 52-100-7. The extra start came in 1965, specifically this game against the Browns; five years ago, PFR had King Hill starting that game; now it had Snead — who went 0/1 — as the starter.

Well, last night, Archie’s son set another record. With the Giants loss to the Redskins on Thanksgiving, Eli Manning became the first quarterback in NFL history to lose 100 starts with a single team. The table below shows all quarterbacks with at least 70 losses with one team, through November 24, 2017: [continue reading…]

The Jets had an ugly 15-10 loss to the Bucs today, and quarterback Josh McCown was as responsible for it as anyone. Prior to some garbage yard throws, he had passed for just 157 net yards on 41 dropbacks with an interception, and the Jets first 11 drives (before a meaningless touchdown) ended with 7 punts, 2 turnovers, 1 FG attempt, and 1 turnover on downs.

But in the final seconds of the game, McCown managed to throw his 14th touchdown pass of the season. That set a new single-season career high for McCown, which is notable: that’s the oldest age any player set their single-season career high in passing touchdowns.

As I wrote earlier, McCown has turned into one of the great late bloomers in quarterback history. Of McCown’s 70 career starts, half of them have come with him at 34.4 years of age or older, giving him the fifth oldest median age of start in league history. But now he has another record all to his own.

Warren Moon set a career high with 33 touchdown passes at age 34 in 1990; 5 years later, Moon tied that mark at the age of 39. But he didn’t set a new career high at age 39, so the tie goes to McCown.

Similarly, Craig Morton originally set a career high in passing touchdowns in 1969 at the age of 26 with 21 scoring strikes; at age 38, in 1981, he again threw 21 touchdown passes.

Five player — Y.A. Tittle, Roger Staubach, John Elway, Steve Young, and Peyton Manning — set a new career high in touchdown passes at the age of 37. Those are the men McCown pushed aside it he record books today.

There are 301 quarterbacks in NFL history who threw for at least 10 touchdown passes in one season and are at least 35 years old in 2017. The graph below shows for each age, the number of QBs who set their career high at that age (and quarterbacks who tie that number later in their career get a 0.5 for each year; so age 26 and age 38 each get 0.5 for Morton). [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at the largest increases in team scoring from one year to the next. Today, the opposite: which teams have seen the largest decreases in scoring?

In the post-merger era, that “honor” would belong to the 1974 Falcons. In 1973, the Falcons averaged 22.7 points per game, 7th-best in the NFL. The team was led by fullback Dave Hampton and quarterback Bob Lee, and while both returned the next season, the results were disastrous. Atlanta averaged just 7.9 points per game, the lowest in the NFL. Along with the 1977 (not ’76) Bucs, the ’74 Falcons are one of just two teams since 1950 to average fewer than 8 points per game.

In more modern times, the 2015 Cowboys (after losing Tony Romo), 2011 Colts (after losing Peyton Manning), and 2010 Vikings (in year two under Brett Favre) are the biggest decliners. The top 100 biggest declines below: [continue reading…]

Last year, the Los Angeles Rams scored 224 points, or just 14.0 points per game. That ranked last in the NFL, 40 points behind the 31st-ranked Cleveland Browns. But as noted earlier this week, the 2017 Rams have scored 212 through seven games, a 30.3 points per game average that ranks 2nd in the NFL.

If that holds, the Rams increase of 16.3 points per game would rank as the third largest ever, and the biggest increase since 1950. [Update: Los Angeles ended the season averaging 29.9 points per game; that 15.9 PPG increase remains the third largest in NFL history, and displaces the 1999 Rams for the biggest year-over-year increase since 1950.] The table below shows the 100 biggest per-game increases in scoring in pro football history: [continue reading…]

The JaMarcus Russell Raiders weren’t very good, and that includes the 2009 season, Russell’s last with the team. That year, Oakland scored 197 points in 16 games, one of just five teams from ’02 to ’16 to finish a season with fewer than 200 points.

In 2010, Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski took over, and Darren McFadden returned from injury to have the biggest year of his career. The 2010 Raiders scored 410 points and finished 6th in scoring, but here’s the money stat. Through 8 games, Oakland had scored 212 points, exceeding their 2009 points total in half a season!

Is that unusual, you ask? Well, yes it is.  In fact, the 2010 Raiders are the only team to outscore the franchise’s team the prior season (in the 16-game season era) after just 8 games.  But the Raiders are about to have some company.

In 2016, the Jared Goff and Case Keenum Rams scored just 224 points, fewest in the NFL.  This year, through 7 games, the Goff-led Rams have already scored 212 points, which was the most in the NFL prior to the team’s week 8 bye! That’s a rags-to-riches story of remarkable proportions.  But for today’s purposes, note that Los Angeles is just 13 points away from exceeding last year’s total. The Ramsface the Giants this weekend.  Assuming L.A. can score a couple of touchdowns, they will join the Raiders as the only teams to exceed last year’s points total in just 8 games (again, during the 16-game season era).

In fact, only seven other teams in the 16-game era have outscored their slightly older brothers after 9 team games. Those are the 2013 Chiefs, 2007 Browns, 2006 Bears, 2001 Browns, 1999 Rams, 1994 Colts, and 1993 Seahawks.

Five years ago, in one of the very first posts at Football Perspective, I wrote that the new Browns were the worst expansion team in NFL history through 13 seasons. That claim felt a little controversial at the time; it has held up surprisingly well.

After 13 years, Cleveland had a pitiful 68-140 record (0.327). Since then? The Browns have gone 20-68, for a pitiful 0.227 winning percentage. Overall, after 18.5 seasons, the 0-8 2017 Browns have brought the New Browns’ record since 1999 to 88-208, a 0.297 wining percentage.

And things are not exactly trending in the positive direction: [continue reading…]