Quarterbacks — Page 11

Checkdowns: Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt “FIP” for Quarterbacks

by Neil Paine on December 22, 2012

in Checkdowns, Passing, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery, Totally Useless

I’ve been on a major QB kick lately, and there’s no reason to stop now. Today, I want to look at a method that might tease out a quarterback’s “true talent” better than if we simply use his raw stats from the season.

Three years ago, our colleague Jason Lisk had a post on the old PFR Blog about which rate stats stay consistent when a QB changes teams. Basically, he grabbed QBs who were still in their primes and changed teams, looking at how their key rate stats correlated from one year to the next. Here’s what Jason found:

[…]I looked at the correlation coefficient for our group of 48 passers, for the year N advanced passing score compared to the year N+1 advanced passing score in each category. This should tell us whether the passers who were good in a performance area (or bad) tended to be the ones who remained good in that performance area the following season, even with the uncertainty of team changes (some positive, some negative for the quarterback).
Sack Percentage:  0.31
Completion Percentage: 0.25
Yards Per Attempt:  0.20
Touchdown Percentage: 0.12
Interception Percentage: 0.10

What do those correlations mean, exactly? Well, take sack percentage as an example. In general, a correlation of 0.31 means you can expect 31% of a QB’s difference from the mean to be repeated next year when he changes teams. In other words, you have to regress the QB’s sack rate 69% towards the mean to get the true rate that “belongs” to him. If the average sack rate is 6.1%, and a QB has a rate of 4.0% (like, say, Drew Brees this year), his “true” sack rate is probably something like 5.4% — 31% of the distance between .061 and .040.

The same concept applies to the other stats listed above. Tony Romo’s observed 66.7% completion percentage is really more like 62.5% after regressing to the mean, and so forth. Do that for every QB who had a reasonable number of attempts this year, and you get these rate stats:

Player	Tm	G	GS	Att	A-Sk%	A-Cmp%	A-YPA	A-TD%	A-INT%	R-Sk%	R-Cmp%	R-YPA	R-TD%	R-INT%
Matthew Stafford	DET	14	14	629	4.3	59.5	6.8	2.7	2.4	5.5	60.7	7.0	4.0	2.6
Drew Brees	NOR	14	14	574	4.0	62.0	7.6	6.3	3.1	5.4	61.4	7.2	4.5	2.7
Tony Romo	DAL	14	14	568	5.3	66.7	7.5	3.9	2.8	5.9	62.5	7.2	4.2	2.7
Andrew Luck	IND	14	13	564	6.2	54.6	7.1	3.5	3.2	6.1	59.5	7.1	4.1	2.7
Carson Palmer	OAK	14	14	562	4.4	60.9	7.1	3.9	2.5	5.6	61.1	7.1	4.2	2.6
Tom Brady	NWE	14	14	560	3.9	63.4	7.6	5.4	1.1	5.4	61.7	7.2	4.4	2.5
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	14	539	4.4	68.5	7.8	5.0	2.6	5.6	63.0	7.2	4.3	2.7
Peyton Manning	DEN	14	14	511	3.9	67.9	7.9	6.1	2.0	5.4	62.8	7.2	4.4	2.6
Brandon Weeden	CLE	14	14	498	5.0	57.2	6.6	2.8	3.4	5.7	60.2	7.0	4.0	2.7
Philip Rivers	SDG	14	14	488	8.1	64.3	6.7	4.5	3.1	6.7	62.0	7.0	4.2	2.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	14	487	6.5	59.1	7.1	4.1	2.1	6.2	60.7	7.1	4.2	2.6
Eli Manning	NYG	14	14	487	3.0	60.4	7.4	4.1	3.1	5.1	61.0	7.1	4.2	2.7
Sam Bradford	STL	14	14	482	6.8	60.2	6.8	3.7	2.3	6.3	60.9	7.0	4.2	2.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	13	476	4.0	64.7	7.5	4.6	2.1	5.5	62.0	7.2	4.3	2.6
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	14	14	474	8.7	66.7	7.6	6.8	1.7	6.9	62.5	7.2	4.5	2.6
Andy Dalton	CIN	14	14	472	7.5	62.5	7.0	5.5	3.0	6.5	61.5	7.1	4.4	2.7
Josh Freeman	TAM	14	14	469	4.3	54.8	7.4	5.3	2.6	5.5	59.6	7.1	4.3	2.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	14	13	444	5.9	61.7	6.6	5.0	3.4	6.0	61.3	7.0	4.3	2.7
Christian Ponder	MIN	14	14	425	6.6	63.1	5.9	3.3	2.8	6.2	61.6	6.9	4.1	2.7
Ryan Tannehill	MIA	14	14	424	5.8	58.7	6.9	2.4	2.8	6.0	60.5	7.0	4.0	2.7
Cam Newton	CAR	14	14	423	7.2	58.2	8.2	4.3	2.4	6.4	60.4	7.3	4.2	2.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	14	418	7.3	54.8	6.4	3.1	4.1	6.5	59.6	6.9	4.1	2.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	11	11	398	5.7	64.1	7.3	5.5	1.5	6.0	61.9	7.1	4.4	2.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	13	377	8.5	59.7	7.0	4.5	3.7	6.8	60.8	7.1	4.2	2.8
Russell Wilson	SEA	14	14	353	6.9	62.9	7.6	5.9	2.5	6.3	61.6	7.2	4.4	2.7
Robert Griffin III	WAS	13	13	351	7.4	66.4	8.3	5.1	1.1	6.5	62.5	7.3	4.3	2.5
Michael Vick	PHI	9	9	316	7.9	58.5	6.9	3.5	2.8	6.6	60.5	7.0	4.1	2.7
Blaine Gabbert	JAX	10	10	278	7.3	58.3	6.0	3.2	2.2	6.5	60.4	6.9	4.1	2.6
Matt Cassel	KAN	9	8	277	6.4	58.1	6.5	2.2	4.3	6.2	60.4	7.0	4.0	2.8
Jake Locker	TEN	9	9	269	5.6	57.6	7.0	3.3	3.3	5.9	60.3	7.1	4.1	2.7
Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	8	5	221	6.0	62.4	6.2	3.2	2.3	6.1	61.5	6.9	4.1	2.6
Nick Foles	PHI	6	5	217	6.5	59.4	6.2	2.3	1.8	6.2	60.7	6.9	4.0	2.6
Alex Smith	SFO	9	9	217	10.0	70.0	8.0	6.0	2.3	7.3	63.4	7.3	4.4	2.6
Chad Henne	JAX	8	4	216	8.5	51.9	6.7	3.7	2.3	6.8	58.8	7.0	4.2	2.6
John Skelton	ARI	7	6	201	6.9	54.2	5.6	1.0	4.5	6.4	59.4	6.8	3.8	2.8
Kevin Kolb	ARI	6	5	183	12.9	59.6	6.4	4.4	1.6	8.2	60.8	6.9	4.2	2.6
Brady Quinn	KAN	8	6	159	9.1	59.7	5.8	1.3	3.8	7.0	60.8	6.8	3.9	2.8
Colin Kaepernick	SFO	11	5	154	8.3	65.6	8.4	4.5	1.3	6.8	62.3	7.3	4.3	2.5
Ryan Lindley	ARI	6	3	141	6.6	51.1	4.3	0.0	4.3	6.3	58.6	6.5	3.7	2.8

(“A-” before a stat means the actual observed rate; “R-” means the regressed rate.)

Now we just need to reconstruct the player’s raw passing line as though he posted those rate stats instead of his actual rates. Cmp%, YPA, TD%, and INT% are easy (just multiply by attempts), and Sack% can be derived via simple algebra:

Sacks_new = (-reg_sk% * Attempts) / (reg_sk% – 1)

(Sack yards can be assumed by multiplying raw sack yards per sack by the new sack total.)

Finally, we plug the new totals into the Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt formula, and we have a QB stat that is sort of like baseball’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which also seeks to reduce the noise and teammate interactions in a pitcher’s ERA by reducing his performance to only those elements he has control over — strikeouts, walks, and home runs.

Here are the 2012 leaders in QB-FIP (along with their regressed totals):

Rk	Player	Age	Tm	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	SkYds	QB-FIP
1	Peyton Manning	36	DEN	14	14	321	511	3697	23	13	29	191	6.22
2	Tom Brady	35	NWE	14	14	346	560	4027	24	14	32	214	6.20
3	Robert Griffin III	22	WAS	13	13	219	351	2568	15	9	24	166	6.15
4	Colin Kaepernick	25	SFO	11	5	96	154	1130	7	4	11	76	6.11
5	Ben Roethlisberger	30	PIT	11	11	246	398	2836	17	10	25	141	6.11
6	Matt Ryan	27	ATL	14	14	339	539	3893	23	14	32	225	6.11
7	Eli Manning	31	NYG	14	14	297	487	3476	20	13	26	165	6.09
8	Drew Brees	33	NOR	14	14	352	574	4118	26	16	33	237	6.08
9	Josh Freeman	24	TAM	14	14	279	469	3350	20	12	27	181	6.08
10	Aaron Rodgers	29	GNB	14	14	296	474	3402	21	12	35	197	6.06
11	Cam Newton	23	CAR	14	14	256	423	3086	18	11	29	203	6.05
12	Russell Wilson	24	SEA	14	14	217	353	2539	16	9	24	148	6.05
13	Alex Smith	28	SFO	9	9	138	217	1575	10	6	17	97	6.04
14	Matt Schaub	31	HOU	14	13	295	476	3407	20	12	27	228	6.01
15	Tony Romo	32	DAL	14	14	355	568	4071	24	15	35	255	5.97
16	Andy Dalton	25	CIN	14	14	290	472	3336	21	13	33	176	5.94
17	Joe Flacco	27	BAL	14	14	295	487	3453	20	13	32	209	5.93
18	Carson Palmer	33	OAK	14	14	343	562	3980	23	15	33	254	5.92
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	30	BUF	14	13	272	444	3101	19	12	29	151	5.89
20	Andrew Luck	23	IND	14	13	336	564	3990	23	15	37	230	5.89
21	Matthew Stafford	24	DET	14	14	382	629	4413	25	17	37	256	5.88
22	Jake Locker	24	TEN	9	9	162	269	1900	11	7	17	108	5.88
23	Michael Vick	32	PHI	9	9	191	316	2223	13	8	22	124	5.84
24	Sam Bradford	25	STL	14	14	294	482	3380	20	13	32	216	5.82
25	Brandon Weeden	29	CLE	14	14	300	498	3477	20	14	30	198	5.80
26	Ryan Tannehill	24	MIA	14	14	257	424	2987	17	11	27	205	5.78
27	Chad Henne	27	JAX	8	4	127	216	1511	9	6	16	94	5.78
28	Philip Rivers	31	SDG	14	14	302	488	3422	21	13	35	221	5.77
29	Matt Cassel	30	KAN	9	8	167	277	1928	11	8	18	97	5.75
30	Jay Cutler	29	CHI	13	13	229	377	2661	16	10	28	187	5.74
31	Christian Ponder	24	MIN	14	14	262	425	2912	17	11	28	164	5.70
32	Nick Foles	23	PHI	6	5	132	217	1500	9	6	14	102	5.70
33	Matt Hasselbeck	37	TEN	8	5	136	221	1525	9	6	14	105	5.70
34	Mark Sanchez	26	NYJ	14	14	249	418	2903	17	12	29	178	5.68
35	Blaine Gabbert	23	JAX	10	10	168	278	1907	11	7	19	138	5.61
36	Kevin Kolb	28	ARI	6	5	111	183	1270	8	5	16	96	5.61
37	Brady Quinn	28	KAN	8	6	97	159	1086	6	4	12	70	5.50
38	John Skelton	24	ARI	7	6	119	201	1365	8	6	14	89	5.46
39	Ryan Lindley	23	ARI	6	3	83	141	921	5	4	9	72	5.15
	Lg Average												5.92

{ 3 comments }

Checkdowns: Quarterback Yards Above Bench (QBYAB)

by Neil Paine on December 21, 2012

in Checkdowns, Passing, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery, Totally Useless

These guys are pretty good.

After posting about SRS-style quarterback ratings on Monday, I was thinking about other things we can do with game-by-game data like that. In his QBGOAT series, Chase likes to compare QBs to the league average, which makes a lot of sense for all-time ratings — you want to reward guys who are at least above-average in a ranking like that. However, if we want seasonal value, perhaps average is too high a baseline.

Over at Football Outsiders, Aaron Schatz has always compared to “replacement level”, borrowing a concept from baseball. I like that approach, but replacement level can be hard to empirically determine. So for the purposes of this post, I wanted to come up with a quick-and-dirty baseline to which we can compare QBs.

To that end, I looked at all players who were not their team’s primary passer in each game since 2010. Weighted by recency and the number of dropbacks by each passer, they performed at roughly a 4.4 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt level. This is not necessarily the replacement level, but it does seem to be the “bench level” — i.e., the ANYPA you could expect from a backup-caliber QB across the league.

Using 4.4 ANYPA as the baseline, we get the following values for 2012:

Quarterback	QBYAB
Tom Brady	1888.1
Peyton Manning	1708.2
Matt Ryan	1453.4
Drew Brees	1441.8
Aaron Rodgers	1337.4
Robert Griffin III	1226.6
Matt Schaub	1205.1
Josh Freeman	1140.1
Cam Newton	1128.2
Tony Romo	1120.2
Ben Roethlisberger	1082.8
Carson Palmer	1011.9
Eli Manning	1002.9
Joe Flacco	914.8
Russell Wilson	890.5
Matthew Stafford	834.1
Andy Dalton	756.9
Andrew Luck	691.6
Sam Bradford	616.3
Alex Smith	558.5
Colin Kaepernick	506.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	481.1
Philip Rivers	447.7
Ryan Tannehill	409.6
Brandon Weeden	320.4
Michael Vick	317.5
Jake Locker	316.9
Jay Cutler	293.8
Chad Henne	217.4
Kirk Cousins	156.8
Nick Foles	152.5
Shaun Hill	151.9
Matt Hasselbeck	134.0
Kevin Kolb	121.4
Blaine Gabbert	92.2
Christian Ponder	91.0
Mohamed Sanu	87.7
Kyle Orton	62.8
Matt Moore	52.5
Derek Anderson	30.1
Matt Flynn	23.7
Dan Orlovsky	17.6
Greg McElroy	11.4
Tyrod Taylor	9.2
Rusty Smith	9.1
Chase Daniel	5.6
Tyler Thigpen	2.7
Graham Harrell	-1.6
Terrelle Pryor	-4.4
Matt Leinart	-5.1
David Carr	-5.9
Tim Tebow	-6.3
Mark Sanchez	-13.3
Charlie Batch	-17.8
Kellen Clemens	-22.4
Ryan Mallett	-45.9
Byron Leftwich	-46.6
Matt Cassel	-47.7
Brad Smith	-50.0
T.J. Yates	-55.1
Jason Campbell	-88.4
Brady Quinn	-146.4
John Skelton	-309.2
Ryan Lindley	-382.0

If we weigh each game by how recent the results took place, we get this list:

Quarterback	Wgtd QBYAB
Tom Brady	1527.6
Drew Brees	1205.4
Peyton Manning	1202.0
Matt Ryan	1129.8
Aaron Rodgers	1109.4
Tony Romo	961.1
Cam Newton	936.6
Matt Schaub	900.3
Robert Griffin III	869.5
Eli Manning	795.5
Ben Roethlisberger	793.9
Josh Freeman	790.3
Carson Palmer	760.4
Russell Wilson	722.9
Matthew Stafford	687.5
Joe Flacco	666.3
Andy Dalton	520.4
Andrew Luck	479.9
Sam Bradford	459.9
Colin Kaepernick	443.0
Alex Smith	399.3
Philip Rivers	384.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	324.0
Ryan Tannehill	313.1
Brandon Weeden	266.5
Michael Vick	249.9
Jay Cutler	236.8
Jake Locker	192.4
Chad Henne	178.7
Kirk Cousins	158.7
Nick Foles	150.5
Matt Hasselbeck	133.1
Shaun Hill	84.4
Kevin Kolb	70.6
Matt Moore	64.8
Kyle Orton	59.8
Mohamed Sanu	47.4
Matt Flynn	47.4
Blaine Gabbert	39.9
Dan Orlovsky	26.3
Tim Tebow	16.3
Derek Anderson	16.3
Greg McElroy	10.3
Chase Daniel	5.1
Rusty Smith	4.8
Tyrod Taylor	4.0
Tyler Thigpen	-0.8
Graham Harrell	-1.4
Matt Leinart	-2.8
David Carr	-3.3
Terrelle Pryor	-4.4
Charlie Batch	-7.6
Kellen Clemens	-14.0
Matt Cassel	-24.2
T.J. Yates	-29.7
Brad Smith	-33.2
Byron Leftwich	-38.3
Christian Ponder	-39.4
Ryan Mallett	-44.6
Jason Campbell	-51.1
Mark Sanchez	-91.0
Brady Quinn	-113.4
John Skelton	-263.6
Ryan Lindley	-340.5

This kind of thing isn’t exactly the most advanced stat in the world, but it’s pretty good if you want to sort QBs into general groups based on how good they are (the assumption being that a player who never plays is implicitly a bench-level player by definition).

Tagged as: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady

{ 2 comments }

Checkdowns: SRS-Style Quarterback Ratings

by Neil Paine on December 17, 2012

in Checkdowns, Quarterbacks, SRS, Statgeekery

Here’s a quick set of quarterback ratings I was messing around with, based on Doug’s Simple Rating System. The basic setup: I took every passer-game (Att > 0) since the 2010 season, weighting for recency according to Wayne Winston’s method. I ran the data through the SRS to adjust for the quality of opponent pass defenses, creating a predicted Net YPA rate for each passer in each game via the following formula:

Predicted NYPA = League Constant + Home-Field Advantage + Passer Rating – Opponent Pass D Rating

The league constant in this case was a Net YPA of 6.24; the homefield component (which was positive while at home, negative on the road, and 0 in Super Bowls) was 0.05. Minimize the sum of squared errors between predicted and actual NYPA for each passer-game (weighted by recency and how many dropbacks the passer had in the game), and you’ve got a set of opponent-adjusted, recency-weighted QB ratings.

Throwing out the Brett Favres and Curtis Painters of the world who haven’t been active this year, here are the full ratings:

Player	Wgtd Drpbks	NYPA Rating
Mohamed Sanu	0.6	60.94
Brian Hoyer	0.2	9.80
Shaun Hill	8.8	5.13
Derek Anderson	2.9	3.96
Kirk Cousins	47.2	2.37
Chase Daniel	1.2	2.02
Matt Flynn	13.2	1.74
Tom Brady	467.0	1.23
Kyle Orton	20.7	1.16
Russell Wilson	266.0	0.95
Robert Griffin III	257.7	0.92
Peyton Manning	382.9	0.78
Drew Brees	472.3	0.75
Matt Ryan	440.8	0.73
Colin Kaepernick	147.4	0.72
Eli Manning	399.1	0.64
Cam Newton	359.5	0.64
Tony Romo	468.3	0.54
Aaron Rodgers	394.9	0.50
Kellen Clemens	9.7	0.45
Matt Schaub	376.3	0.39
Alex Smith	176.1	0.39
Charlie Batch	66.1	0.37
Josh Freeman	395.0	0.28
Ben Roethlisberger	324.6	0.23
Carson Palmer	445.6	0.15
Matthew Stafford	521.2	0.10
Joe Flacco	410.4	0.00
Rusty Smith	3.3	-0.03
Tyrod Taylor	2.5	-0.10
Andrew Luck	433.0	-0.11
Jake Locker	192.4	-0.11
Sam Bradford	399.1	-0.15
Josh McCown	4.7	-0.17
Matt Moore	36.9	-0.18
Tarvaris Jackson	26.4	-0.20
Ryan Tannehill	320.8	-0.20
Rex Grossman	27.3	-0.21
Jordan Palmer	0.0	-0.27
Michael Vick	231.4	-0.30
Brandon Weeden	367.1	-0.40
Andy Dalton	395.9	-0.40
Dennis Dixon	0.1	-0.41
Ryan Fitzpatrick	374.6	-0.43
Jay Cutler	307.5	-0.43
Philip Rivers	419.2	-0.49
Drew Stanton	0.5	-0.56
Matt Hasselbeck	181.8	-0.58
Chad Henne	212.4	-0.59
Matt Cassel	196.9	-0.62
Mark Sanchez	318.0	-0.69
Dan Orlovsky	21.3	-0.76
Joe Webb	5.3	-0.77
Tyler Thigpen	6.2	-0.88
Colt McCoy	24.7	-0.90
Tim Tebow	28.3	-0.96
John Skelton	172.9	-1.04
Bruce Gradkowski	1.4	-1.09
Nick Foles	205.3	-1.16
Blaine Gabbert	213.0	-1.23
Christian Ponder	334.1	-1.23
T.J. Yates	22.1	-1.24
Kevin Kolb	132.1	-1.38
Jason Campbell	55.1	-1.46
Brady Quinn	147.2	-1.49
Charlie Whitehurst	3.3	-1.91
Byron Leftwich	45.4	-2.13
Trent Edwards	0.4	-2.13
Luke McCown	2.5	-2.14
Jimmy Clausen	1.3	-2.17
Ryan Mallett	3.1	-2.26
Caleb Hanie	7.9	-2.30
Ryan Lindley	133.6	-2.37
Greg McElroy	7.0	-2.51
Graham Harrell	2.0	-2.79
David Carr	1.2	-4.09
Matt Leinart	1.6	-4.71
Brad Smith	0.7	-6.04
Terrelle Pryor	1.0	-7.09

[continue reading…]

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Matt Schaub’s Primtime Problem Is In the Eye of the Beholder

by Chase Stuart on December 12, 2012

in Quarterbacks, Statistics

You’re probably hearing a lot right now about how Matt Schaub is not a primetime player — literally. Schaub and the Texans struggled in embarassing losses on Sunday Night Football to the Packers earlier in the season and on Monday Night Football two days ago to the Patriots. Schaub posted terrible numbers in a defensively-driven 13-6 win over the Jay Cutler/Jason Campbell Bears.

For his career, Schaub is 2-5 (0.286 winning percentage) in night games and 41-31 (0.569) in day games. Among the 24 quarterbacks studied (more on that below), that drop in winning percentage is the largest such decline. You might think this is due to facing better defenses in night games, but that’s not really the case.

Schaub has averaged 7.8 Adjusted Yards per Attempt during day games and 6.0 AY/A during night games; that difference of 1.8 AY/A is the second largest among the twenty-four quarterbacks.

So yes, there is no debate: Schaub has been noticeably worse during night games in his career.

The table below shows all quarterbacks who have started a game this season and that have started at least five night games in their career. The data consist of all games throughout their career in which they were the starter. To make it a little easier to read, I’ve shaded the day and night categories differently:

QB	D_W/L	D_WIN%	D_Y/A	D_AY/A	N_W/L	N_WIN%	N_Y/A	N_AY/A	Y/A_DIFF	AY/A_DIFF	Win%_Diff
Jason Campbell	28-31	0.475	6.93	6.65	3-9	0.25	5.75	4.77	-1.18	-1.88	-0.225
Matt Schaub	41-31	0.569	7.93	7.79	2-5	0.286	6.94	6	-0.99	-1.79	-0.284
Jay Cutler	37-28	0.569	7.3	6.84	13-14	0.481	7.1	6.08	-0.2	-0.76	-0.088
Joe Flacco	46-21	0.687	7.11	6.9	12-7	0.632	6.64	6.19	-0.47	-0.71	-0.055
Ben Roethlisberger	67-27	0.713	7.94	7.79	29-14	0.674	7.85	7.14	-0.09	-0.65	-0.038
Matt Ryan	47-19	0.712	7.19	7.03	7-5	0.583	6.63	6.4	-0.56	-0.63	-0.129
Carson Palmer	48-58	0.453	7.25	6.74	5-10	0.333	6.55	6.27	-0.7	-0.47	-0.119
Matt Cassel	25-29	0.463	6.59	6.11	4-5	0.444	6.35	5.65	-0.24	-0.46	-0.019
Matt Hasselbeck	75-72	0.51	6.88	6.42	10-6	0.625	6.9	6.22	0.02	-0.2	0.115
Aaron Rodgers	40-20	0.667	8.21	8.68	14-7	0.667	8	8.49	-0.21	-0.19	0
Alex Smith	31-32	0.492	6.61	6.07	8-5	0.615	6.32	5.91	-0.29	-0.16	0.123
Sam Bradford	13-20	0.397	6.21	5.79	1-4	0.2	6.33	5.71	0.12	-0.08	-0.197
Michael Vick	43-38	0.53	6.97	6.55	15-8	0.652	7.06	6.52	0.09	-0.03	0.122
Mark Sanchez	29-20	0.592	6.64	5.82	8-9	0.471	6.42	5.83	-0.22	0.01	-0.121
Tony Romo	35-27	0.565	7.7	7.67	20-12	0.625	8.17	7.74	0.47	0.07	0.06
Eli Manning	61-39	0.61	7.13	6.54	24-19	0.558	6.96	6.68	-0.17	0.14	-0.052
Matthew Stafford	16-21	0.432	6.87	6.51	1-5	0.167	7.47	6.9	0.6	0.39	-0.266
Peyton Manning	120-62	0.659	7.58	7.39	40-18	0.69	7.7	7.79	0.12	0.4	0.03
Tom Brady	112-30	0.789	7.39	7.49	38-14	0.731	7.55	7.9	0.16	0.41	-0.058
Byron Leftwich	21-24	0.467	6.51	6	3-3	0.5	6.65	6.47	0.14	0.47	0.033
Philip Rivers	51-35	0.593	7.8	7.53	20-10	0.667	8.1	8.13	0.3	0.6	0.074
Drew Brees	79-62	0.56	7.39	7.18	23-11	0.676	7.7	7.84	0.31	0.66	0.116
Charlie Batch	16-27	0.372	6.72	5.78	9-3	0.75	7.73	8.22	1.01	2.44	0.378
Chad Henne	12-17	0.414	6.3	5.17	2-3	0.4	8.05	7.81	1.75	2.64	-0.014

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Matt Schaub, Texans

{ 3 comments }

The 2013 Panthers are so attractive Bill Parcells could be lured out of retirement

by Chase Stuart on December 7, 2012

in Coaches, Passing, Quarterbacks

So you're telling me they were 1-15 last year?

An old friend of mine was always mildly irked at the praise thrown at Bill Parcells for turning around moribund franchises. In reality, making a team with a terrible record respectable isn’t all that challenging. Where Parcells added value was in making his good teams great, not in making terrible teams mediocre.

In 1992, one year B.P., the New England Patriots were 2-14, in part thanks to a 1-5 record in one-score games. Throw in some regression to the mean and the first pick in every round of the ’93 draft, and going 5-11 in 1993 wasn’t so much of an accomplishment as it was pre-ordained.

In 1996, one year B.P., the Jets went 1-15. New York was a horrific 0-7 in one-score games. Throw in the #1 pick in every round, and they were an attractive target. Parcells did do a masterful job cleaning up the mess left by Rich Kotite, but getting them to 9-7 looked very impressive in large part thanks to the poor fortunes of the team the prior year.

The Big Tuna again went after the low-hanging fruit again when he took over as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations in Miami (it is here my old friend would get particularly annoyed, noting that Parcells found a way to have his cake and eat it too. If the Dolphins succeeded, Parcells would have “done it again.” Had they failed, well, he wasn’t the coach.) He took over a 1-15 team that was bad but not 1-15 bad; they had faced one of the harder schedules in the league and gone 1-6 in close games. Enter Jake Long, Chad Pennington, and the Wildcat, and the Dolphins went 11-5. Parcells did it again!

In any event, that’s just background. The 2013 Panthers are the real topic today — and they are the lowest hanging fruit any potential coach has seen in decades. Consider:

The Panthers are currently 3-9, and little is expected of them going forward. They are now just 9-19 in the Cam Newton era.
Despite that, Carolina ranks 4th in Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats efficiency ratings. Now maybe they aren’t the 4th best team in the league, but Brian’s system is purely predictive and minimizes events that shape our views but are unlikely to impact future records. I have no doubt that they’re closer to the 4th best team in the league than the 4th worst, which is where they are by record.
Football Outsiders ranks Carolina 18th — which, by the way, still means they’re much better than their record — but even that is misleading. Schatz ranks Carolina 32nd in special teams — a unit that Burke ignores — but instead has them 15th in offensive DVOA and 14th in defensive DVOA. That means excluding special teams the Panthers are above average, and special teams performance is notoriously fickle.
So why are the Panthers 3-9? Carolina is currently 0-7 in one-score games.

There’s an even simpler way to show how the Panthers are massively underachieving this year. Net yards per attempt isn’t the only stat in the world, but it’s one of the most important indicators of an offense’s effectiveness. Net yards per attempt is just as important on defense; NY/A differential, the difference between how many net yards you gain per offensive attempt and how many you allow per defensive attempt, is a simple shorthand to highlight the best in the league. Here are the results through 13 weeks (i.e., not counting last night’s game):
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Cam Newton, Jon Gruden, Panthers, Ron Rivera

{ 11 comments }

Checkdowns: A different starting quarterback in three straight games

by Chase Stuart on November 24, 2012

in Checkdowns, Quarterbacks

Things are getting ugly in Pittsburgh. Really ugly.

Ben Roethlisberger started the first nine games of the season, but things are getting ugly quickly in Pittsburgh. After suffering a right shoulder injury and bruising his ribs against the Chiefs, Byron Leftwich started last weekend against the Ravens. Leftwich injured his ribs against Baltimore, leaving Pittsburgh to now turn to Charlie Batch against the Browns tomorrow.

When was the last time a team started three different quarterbacks in consecutive games? Three teams last year pulled off that feat. After Jason Campbell started the first six games of the season, Kyle Boller started the next week before the team permanently switched to Carson Palmer.

Matt Schaub was the Texans starting quarterback for ten games, but a foot injury ended his season. Matt Leinart took over, but a broken collarbone ended his season, leaving the reins in the hands of rookie T.J. Yates. In St. Louis, an ankle injury caused Sam Bradford to miss a December game against the 49ers, leaving A.J. Feeley to start. Feely injured his right thumb, but Bradford was back the next week. He would miss the rest of the year due to his ankle, though, and Kellen Clemens started the last three games.

So it’s actually not all that rare for a team to go with three different quarterbacks in three weeks; at some point this season, it’s possible the Cardinals will, as well, with John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Kevin Kolb. From 2000 to 2011, teams started three different quarterbacks in consecutive games on 36 different occasions:

Tm	Year	GM#	QB	QB	QB
HOU	2011	10-12	Matt Schaub	Matt Leinart	T.J. Yates
OAK	2011	6-8	Jason Campbell	Kyle Boller	Carson Palmer
STL	2011	12-14	A.J. Feeley	Sam Bradford	Kellen Clemens
CAR	2010	8-10	Matt Moore	Jimmy Clausen	Brian St. Pierre
MIA	2010	8-10	Chad Henne	Chad Pennington	Tyler Thigpen
MIA	2010	9-11	Chad Pennington	Tyler Thigpen	Chad Henne
MIN	2010	13-15	Tarvaris Jackson	Brett Favre	Joe Webb
TEN	2010	9-11	Kerry Collins	Vince Young	Rusty Smith
TEN	2010	10-12	Vince Young	Rusty Smith	Kerry Collins
CLE	2008	11-13	Brady Quinn	Derek Anderson	Ken Dorsey
KAN	2008	1-3	Brodie Croyle	Damon Huard	Tyler Thigpen
KAN	2008	5-7	Damon Huard	Brodie Croyle	Tyler Thigpen
SEA	2008	4-6	Matt Hasselbeck	Charlie Frye	Seneca Wallace
MIN	2007	7-9	Kelly Holcomb	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger
STL	2007	11-13	Marc Bulger	Gus Frerotte	Brock Berlin
STL	2007	12-14	Gus Frerotte	Brock Berlin	Marc Bulger
NYJ	2005	3-5	Chad Pennington	Brooks Bollinger	Vinny Testaverde
PIT	2005	9-11	Charlie Batch	Tommy Maddox	Ben Roethlisberger
STL	2005	10-12	Marc Bulger	Jamie Martin	Ryan Fitzpatrick
SFO	2005	6-8	Alex Smith	Ken Dorsey	Cody Pickett
ARI	2004	11-13	Shaun King	John Navarre	Josh McCown
TAM	2004	4-6	Brad Johnson	Chris Simms	Brian Griese
TEN	2003	14-16	Billy Volek	Steve McNair	Neil O'Donnell
OAK	2003	7-9	Rich Gannon	Marques Tuiasosopo	Rick Mirer
CAR	2002	6-8	Rodney Peete	Chris Weinke	Randy Fasani
CAR	2002	7-9	Chris Weinke	Randy Fasani	Rodney Peete
CIN	2002	3-5	Gus Frerotte	Akili Smith	Jon Kitna
PHI	2002	10-12	Donovan McNabb	Koy Detmer	A.J. Feeley
STL	2002	4-6	Kurt Warner	Jamie Martin	Marc Bulger
STL	2002	12-14	Kurt Warner	Jamie Martin	Marc Bulger
TAM	2002	14-16	Brad Johnson	Shaun King	Rob Johnson
TAM	2002	15-17	Shaun King	Rob Johnson	Brad Johnson
WAS	2002	3-5	Shane Matthews	Danny Wuerffel	Patrick Ramsey
DAL	2001	4-6	Quincy Carter	Anthony Wright	Clint Stoerner
SDG	2000	3-5	Moses Moreno	Ryan Leaf	Jim Harbaugh
SDG	2000	9-11	Jim Harbaugh	Moses Moreno	Ryan Leaf

Excluding the 1987 season, the 1974 49ers were the only team since the merger to start four different quarterbacks in four weeks. As you can imagine, their story is interesting. Joe Reed entered the season as the starter, after splitting time with a 38-year-old John Brodie (who retired after the season) and Steve Spurrier (who suffered a severely dislocated shoulder in the final pre-season game in ’74) in 1973. He started the first three games of the year, and played miserably, so the team moved on to Dennis Morrison, who had been a 14th-round draft selection in 1973.

Morrison started the 4th and 5th games of the season for the 49ers, which is when the streak began. Morris started game five in Detroit, but threw three interceptions, so in week 6, the 49ers went back to Reed. Reed went 2/8 for 1 interception and was promptly traded later that week. So in week 7, 13th-round rookie Tom Owen started the game and performed reasonably well, but he was just the interim quarterback. That’s because in connection with the Reed trade, San Francisco acquired Norm Snead from the Giants, who sent Snead to San Francisco after acquiring Craig Morton from Dallas. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited Snead to just that one start for the 49ers in ’74, however, and Owen would go on to play (somewhat competently) for the remainder of the year.

{ 2 comments }

Checkdowns: Vick’s Masterpiece vs. RGIII’s Payback Game

by Neil Paine on November 19, 2012

in Checkdowns, History, Quarterbacks, Trivia

On November 15, 2010, Michael Vick humiliated the Washington Redskins before a national television audience on Monday Night Football. The big news right before kickoff was that the ‘Skins had signed former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb to a five-year, $78 million contract extension, an ironic note that wouldn’t be lost on observers as McNabb’s replacement, Vick, put together one of the greatest all-around quarterbacking performances in NFL history:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/15/2010	PHI	@	WAS	W 59-28	20	28	71.4%	333	4	0	150.7	1	1	14.2	8	80	2

McNabb, on the other hand, was mediocre, going 17-31 with 295 yards and 2 TDs, but also 3 picks. More damning, Washington’s offense produced zero points until the Redskins were in a 35-0 hole and the game was essentially over.

Fast-forward 735 days, though, and the Redskins got their payback. An injured Vick was on the shelf, the Eagles entered the game on a 5-game losing streak, and electrifying rookie Robert Griffin III extended it to six with a brilliant performance of his own:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/18/2012	WAS		PHI	W 31-6	14	15	93.3%	200	4	0	158.3	2	8	16.0	12	84	0

So, which performance was better, Vick’s original or RGIII’s remix? Vick threw for 133 more yards, rushed for practically the same amount as Griffin (on 4 fewer carries), and produced more total TDs. Then again, Griffin completed 93% of his passes and put together the vaunted 158.3 “perfect” QB rating. It’s a tough call.

Sound off with your opinion below!

{ 9 comments }