Over at Footballguys.com, I look at a different method to project receiving yards.

The number of receiving yards a player produces is the result of a large number of variables. Some of them, like the receiver’s ability, are pretty consistent from year to year. But other factors are less reliable, or less “sticky” from year to year. I thought it would be informative to look at three key variables that impact the number of yards a wide receiver gains and measure how “sticky” they are from year to year. These three variables are:

• The number of pass attempts by his team;
• The percentage of his team’s passes that go to him; and
• The receiver’s average gain on passes that go to him.

We can redefine receiving yards to equal the following equation:

Receiving yards = Receiving Yards/Target x Targets/Team_Pass_Att x Team_Pass_Att.

You’ll notice that Targets and Team Pass Attempts are in both the numerator and denominator of one of the fractions, and they will cancel each other out: that’s why this formula is equivalent to receiving yards.

By breaking out receiving yards into these three variables, we can then examine the stickiness of each one, which should help our Year N+1 projections. Below are the best-fit equations for each of those variables in Year N+1:

Future Pass Attempts = 36 + (450 x Pass_Attempts/Play) + (0.255 x Offensive Plays)

Future Percentage of Targets = 6.2% + 71.3% x Past Percentage of Targets

Future Yards/Target = 5.5 + 0.29 x Past Yards/Targets

I then used those three equations to come up with a starting point for receiving yards projections for 28 wide receivers. You can read the full article here.

After hearing that the other Steve Smith was retiring, Kyle on twitter asked me where Smith’s 2009 season ranked in the pantheon of anomalous wide receiver seasons. In case you forgot, take a look at Smith’s yearly production:

Smith had what looked like a breakout season in 2009, catching 107 passes for 1,220 yards and seven touchdowns. As it turned out, those numbers represent 44% of his career receptions, 46% of his career receiving yards, and 58% of his career touchdowns.

So how do we measure the biggest outlier seasons of all time? One way would be to compare each receiver’s best season to his second best season and see the difference. I used Adjusted Catch Yards — calculated as Receiving Yards plus five yards for every Reception and twenty yards for every Receiving Touchdown — to do that for every retired receiver and tight end in NFL history. The table below shows all receivers who gained at least 800 more Adjusted Catch Yards in their best season than in their second best season. For example, here’s how to read the Germane Crowell line. Crowell’s best season came with Detroit in 1999, when he caught 81 passes for 1,338 yards and 7 touchdowns. That’s equal to 1,883 Adjusted Catch Yards. In his second best year, he caught only 34 passes for 430 yards and three touchdowns, giving him only 660 ACY. That’s 1,223 Adjusted Catch Yards fewer than in his best season. Using this method, Steve Smith comes in with the sixth most anomalous season in NFL history.
[continue reading…]

A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the longest team streaks without a 1,000-yard rusher. Today’s post examines the teams that went the longest stretch without boasting a 1,000-yard receiver. I’m only going to look at things starting in 1978 (with one caveat), however, as 1,000-yard seasons were much rarer before then. The Redskins and Cardinals didn’t even have a 1,000-yard receiver until 1962, when Bobby Mitchell and Sonny Randle hit those marks for Washington and St. Louis, respectively.

The Jaguars and Raiders have each gone seven straight seasons without a 1,000-yard receiver. Jimmy Smith, one of the most underrated receivers in NFL history, was the last Jacksonville player to gain 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Fortunately for Jaguars fans, there’s a good chance the streak ends in 2013. Cecil Shorts missed two full games due to injury and finished with 979 receiving yards during his breakout season last year, and should be even better this year. He also could benefit from Justin Blackmon being out for the first four games of this season. As for Oakland, the last receiver … well, see if you can remember who was the last Raider with 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Answer is at the end of this post.

The table below shows all teams since 1978 to go at least seven straight years without a 1,000-yard receiver. The one caveat from above? I’ll include pre-1978 seasons for any team that also failed to produce a 1,000-yard receiver from ’78 to ’84, too.
[continue reading…]

With Norv Turner, you know what you’re going to get. Turner was fired in San Diego after the Chargers failed to make the playoffs in each of the last three years, but as usual, Turner was able to find a nice landing spot. He’ll be the Browns offensive coordinator in 2013, which will mark his 29th straight year in the NFL. Turner started as a receivers coach with the Rams in 1985 and hasn’t been out of work for very long ever since.

And while he has a reputation for having great running games, he also has habit of sending his receivers down the field. That’s no accident. Ernie Zampese, a longtime assistant under Don Coryell, became the Rams offensive coordinator in 1987, and Turner’s teams have been running a variation of the vertical Coryell/Zampese system ever since.

I ranked all players (minimum 500 receiving yards) in yards per reception in each year since Turner was united with Zampese in ’87. In six of those seasons, one of five different Turner receivers led the NFL in yards per reception. In addition, Turner’s top receiver (in terms of YPR) finished in the top five in that metric thirteen more times. The table below shows the rank of the highest-ranked receiver (in terms of YPR) in Turner’s offense in each of the last 26 years.
[continue reading…]

Seven years ago, Doug wrote this post analyzing wide receivers by team receiving yards. That post was overdue for an update for three reasons: (1) it was written seven years ago; (2) Doug only went back to 1978, while we now can go back to 1932; and (3) I think using Adjusted Catch Yards (which gives receivers 5 additional yards for every reception and 20 additional yards for every touchdown) is better than just using receiving yards.

For every year of every receiver’s career, I computed the percentage of his team’s Adjusted Catch Yards that he accounted for. I then averaged together each receiver’s 6 best six seasons according to that metric, and ignored all wide receivers who have played in fewer than six seasons. The results are listed below for the 161 receivers to hit the 25% mark, along with the six years selected for each receiver. As always, you can use the search box to find your favorite receiver, and the table is sortable, too.
[continue reading…]

One of the surprising success stories of the 2012 season was the breakout performance of second-year Jacksonville wide receiver Cecil Shorts. With a cap value of $729,000 in 2013, Shorts is probably the best value on the Jaguars roster. But he’s one of the more confusing players to project.

The optimistic outlook on Shorts is simple. He missed two games with a concussion and took a couple of weeks to become a key part of the Jacksonville offense (he didn’t record a catch in week two, for example): in his final 12 games, Shorts averaged over 75 yards per game and scored 6 touchdowns. That would put him on a 1200-yard, 8-touchdown pace over a full slate of 16 games as a starter.

But there are other factors to consider. Shorts was only a fourth round pick and gained just 30 yards as a rookie, so he doesn’t have much of a resume beyond 2012. And while he may have produced impressive numbers, Jacksonville ranked 29th in ANY/A last year, making Shorts the co-star (along with Justin Blackmon) of a really bad passing offense. And what’s impressive about that?

So which view should carry more weight? The productive season he had as an individual or the fact that he’s a low-pedigree player who was only responsible for 26.1% of the receiving yards on a terrible passing team?
[continue reading…]

Jerry Rice’s records are essentially unbreakable. Over a marvelous twenty-year career, Rice caught 41 more touchdowns than Randy Moss, 44 more than Terrell Owens, and 67 more than every player other than Moss and Owens. He also holds the overall touchdowns mark, with 33 more touchdowns than Emmitt Smith, 46 more than LaDainian Tomlinson, and over 50 touchdowns more than every other player in NFL history. If you check the NFL records books, no player has finished his career with more than 16,000 receiving yards and fewer than 22,895 receiving yards: that’s how wide the gulf is between @JerryRice and the rest of the great wide receivers.

But there is one record that possibly, maybe, hey you never know could be broken. Jerry Rice is the career leader with 1,549 receptions. For some perspective, Steve Largent was the first player to reach the 800 receptions mark, and Art Monk passed Largent in 1992. Rice caught the still-active Monk in the final game of the 1995 regular season. Monk would retire after the season with 940 catches to his name; as he laced up his cleats for the last time, he was the career leader in receptions. When he came off the field that day, he had been relegated to number two. That’s because 700 miles away, Rice caught 12 passes against the Falcons, bringing his career total up to 942. Oh, and Rice also set the single-season record for receiving yards that day, too. Rice turned 34 in 1996; up until that point, only Charlie Joiner (325) had recorded more than 300 receptions after his age 33 season. Even though Rice missed nearly the entire 1997 season due to injury, he still caught 607 passes after 1995. Which is why we always assumed this record was unbreakable.

However, as teams began passing more frequently (and more conservatively) than ever before, some modern receivers have compiled massive receptions totals. Did you know that Tony Gonzalez is number two all-time in career receptions? With 1,242 catches, Gonzalez has a 140-catch lead on #3 man Marvin Harrison, but Gonzalez still trails Jerry Rice by 307 catches.

But what about Gonzalez’ statistical doppelganger, Jason Witten? Four years ago, I wrote that Witten was going to find himself in the Hall of Fame because of his massive numbers:

Jason Witten entered the NFL at age 21. That’s very young for a player at any position, let alone tight end. So how has he done?

• Through age 21, he had more receptions than any other tight end through age 21, and was second in receiving yards (Tony Gonzalez).

• Through age 22, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.

• Through age 23, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.

• Through age 24, he was second in receptions (Tony Gonzalez) and second in receiving yards (Gonzalez) among tight ends.

• Through age 25, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.

• Through age 26 (the 2008 season), he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.

• With 40 receptions and 472 receiving yards in 2009, he will have more receptions and more receiving yards than any other tight end through the age of twenty-seven.

Witten hasn’t slowed down since I wrote that article. With 806 receptions, he has the most catches of any player through age 30 in history (although Larry Fitzgerald should catch him next year). I thought it would be interesting to chart the career receptions totals of Rice, Witten, and Gonzalez. The graph below shows the career receptions of each player at the end of each season, with age on the X-axis and career receptions on the Y-axis. Witten is in Cowboys blue and silver; unfortunately Chiefs fans, I chose to reserve red and gold for Rice, leaving Gonzalez in Falcons black and red.

Even now, Gonzalez has a lead on Rice, and he’ll be 36 catches ahead of Rice after 2013 even if he doesn’t catch a single pass. Of course, Rice went (literally) off the chart in his final years, making it essentially impossible for Gonzalez to catch him.

But Witten has basically had the same career as Gonzalez but with an even larger buffer against Rice. Witten’s lead on Gonzalez grew significantly this year thanks to a 110-catch season at age 30 (the year Gonzalez had just 73 catches), but ages 31 to 33 were ridiculous years for both Gonzalez and Rice. The odds are very much against Witten getting to 1,549 catches, but becoming the second player to hit the 1400-catch mark is a realistic (and incredibly impressive) goal.

The left columns in the table below shows the number of career receptions through each age for each of Rice, Gonzalez, and Witten. The right three columns show the number of catches by each player at each age.

Witten has a nearly 200-catch lead on Rice through age thirty. If we assume Witten can stay healthy in each of the next five years, he’ll get an even bigger buffer when he hits age 35. If we give Witten 351 catches over the next five years, he’ll be at 1157, giving him a 100-catch lead on Rice. Based on what Rice did after age 35, that’s not going to be anywhere near enough. If Witten wants a realistic shot, he’s going to need to keep pumping out 90-100 catch seasons for the next four years, at least. In any event, Witten will be able to keep this dream up for awhile: he needs just 38 catches in 2013 to end the year with the most receptions of any player through age thirty-one.

Only three players in NFL history have been responsible for half of their team’s receiving touchdowns over a six-year period: Don Hutson, Jerry Rice, and Hugh Taylor. You probably don’t know much about Taylor, the Washington Redskins star receiver who played from 1947 to 1954. In his first game in the NFL, he caught 8 passes for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns, giving him the record for receiving yards in a player’s first game that stood until 2003.  In his last game, he caught five passes for 106 yards and three touchdowns.  In between those games, he was a star receiver on one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Despite the short career, Taylor came in at #63 on my list of the best receivers of all time. His most impressive season came in 1952, when he was responsible for 45% of the Redskins’ receiving yards and produced the 52nd-best season ever by a wide receiver.

At 6’4, Taylor was one of the tallest receivers of his era, but at only 194 pounds, he was also very deserving of his nickname: Bones. Taylor made up for his skinny physique with a long stride that enabled him to get behind defenders.  I spoke with T.J. Troup, an NFL historian who has coached wide receivers at the college and high school levels, for his thoughts on Taylor. Troup owns a significant amount of NFL film from the late ’40s and ’50s, making him the perfect source for this subject.  He described Taylor to me as one of the best home-run threats of his day, with a playing style similar to other long-striders like Harlon Hill, Don Maynard, and Lance Alworth. The numbers certainly back that up.

The table below shows all receivers who were responsible for at least 39% of a team’s receiving touchdowns over a six-year period.  Note that several receivers would show up multiple times on this list, so for players like Hutson, I’ve limited them to their single best six-year stretch. Taylor’s stretch from ’49 to ’54 ranks second on the list:

[continue reading…]

Few get the statheads talking like Danny Amendola. Bill Barnwell wrote a free-agent book on Amendola in March, where he presented Amendola in the best possible light. Barnwell noted that over the last four years, Bradford has completed 66.5% of his passes aimed at Amendola compared to just 56.8% to all other targets. Barnwell further argued that since Amendola was much more productive in St. Louis than Wes Welker was in Miami, there is a good chance Amendola sees a big, Tom Brady-induced spike when he moves to New England, too.

Scott Kacsmar takes a slightly different view. First, the pro-Amendola argument: since 2010, the Rams are 12-15-1 (.446) when Amendola plays and 4-16 (.200) when he is out. Kacsmar also shows that the Rams averaged 18.9 PPG, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, and 312 yards per game, along with a 5.9% sack rate, in games with Amendola, versus averages of just 12.6, 5.6, 296, and 8.1%, respectively, in games that St. Louis played without Amendola. On the negative side, Kacsmar focused on Amendola’s miserable 8.81 yards-per-reception average, the lowest in history by a wide receiver with at least 100 receptions (by a pretty large margin). Another reason not to be impressed with Amendola’s high catch rate is that 29% of his receptions were “failed completions” ^[1]These are plays where the player fails to gain a minimum percentage of yards towards a first down (45 percent on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third/fourth down. according to Kacsmar.

Amendola is a unique player in the same sense that Darren Sproles isn’t a traditional running back or Tim Tebow isn’t a traditional quarterback. Amendola’s a wide receiver, but he doesn’t operate the way wide receivers have for much of NFL history. According to Pro Football Focus, Amendola was in the slot on 85% of his routes over the last four years; that’s an enormous number, as even Wes Welker ran routes out of the slot on “only” 73.8% of his routes over that time period.
[continue reading…]

To the casual fan, Arrelious Benn is one of many nondescript wide receivers in the NFL. The Buccaneers selected him in the second round of the 2010 Draft, he gained 862 yards in three seasons, and Tampa Bay just traded him to Philadelphia for a 7th round pick in the 2013 draft.

My curiosity with Benn dates back to his college days. He came to Illinois as a five-star recruit and he gained 676 yards and 2 touchdowns as a true freshman.   While that might not sound impressive, he gained more than twice as many receiving yards as any other player on the team, and his production earned him Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors. That 2007 Illini threw the fewest passes in the Big Ten, suppressing Benn’s numbers, but landed in the Rose Bowl based on a run-heavy attack led by Rashard Mendenhall. They were quarterbacked by Juice Williams, a running “quarterback” in name only, and coached by Ron Zook, the two men who would torpedo the Illinois offense over the next two seasons.

As a sophomore, Benn again more than doubled the production of the next best receiver on the Illini: he caught 67 passes for 1,066 yards and ran 23 times for 101 yards. Those numbers were good enough to lead the conference in receiving yards during the regular season, although Minnesota’s Eric Decker passed him in Minnesota’s Bowl game. Illinois didn’t have a Bowl game, as the team imploded and finished 5-7.
[continue reading…]

The craziness continues, with Wes Welker signing with the Denver Broncos being the big story of day two of the league year. The Patriots responded by signing Danny Amendola, the least surprising move since Brandon Lloyd joined Josh McDaniels in New England last year. Arguably the biggest move so far this week has been Mike Wallace joining Dolphins, while Greg Jennings still seems likely to move on from Green Bay. Throw in Percy Harvin to Seattle and Anquan Boldin to San Francisco, and we’re seeing a lot of movement among the top receivers this year. Which gives me an opportunity to do a quick data dump on the best receivers to ever switch teams.

In some ways, it’s hard to find a comparable receiver to Welker. He’s been so productive for so long that it’s easy to be unimpressed with the 118 catches, 1,354 yards, and six touchdowns he had last year, but no receiver had ever switched teams after catching more than 101 catches in a season. Only two receivers — Muhsin Muhammad and Yancey Thigpen — gained more receiving yards in a season than Welker did in 2012 and then played for a new team the next year.

But Welker’s amazingly unique numbers are a product of playing in a very pass-friendly environment on a team that threw 641 passes last year. To compare players across systems and eras, I came up with a wide receiver ranking system last month. That will allow us to look at the best receivers to switch teams and not just the ones from the last couple of decades. For some perspective, Welker ranked 8th among wide receivers last season, although that’s without any Tom Brady-adjustment.

The table below contains a lot of information. It shows receivers who added over 200 yards of value over average in Year N and then played for a new team in Year N+1. For each player, I’ve listed his old team, his age in Year N, some traditional statistics, the amount of value added by the receiver, and his rank among wide receivers. Then starting in the “N+1 tm” category, we see his new team, his statistics in the new season, how much value he added in Year N+1 and his rank in that season.
[continue reading…]

Paul Warfield has been confounding stat heads for years. Warfield was a rare first-ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver and one of the most athletic and talented wide receivers in history. However, his statistics look downright unimpressive to the modern eye. That’s not too surprising, though, since he played the prime of his career in football’s deadball era for one of its best teams.

I was pretty happy when I noticed that Warfield ranked 16th in my wide receiver ranking project last month; that’s much higher than most (all?) stats-based ranking systems place him, although some would argue that it would still underrate him.

One way to understand Warfield’s statistics is to see just how infrequently his teams passed. The table below shows some of the top wide receivers in football history to enter the league since 1960, including some Warfield contemporaries like Gary Garrison, Fred Biletnikoff, Harold Carmichael, and Gene A. Washington. While career numbers are interesting, you can often learn more by just looking at a player’s best seasons.

The table below shows the top 7 seasons for each wide receiver (based on the formula from this post) and how many pass attempts per game his team attempted during those seasons:
[continue reading…]

I’ve written several posts about how to grade wide receivers and did a three-part series on one ranking system two weeks ago. Grading wide receivers requires one to adjust for era, but there are many different ways to do that.

Calvin Johnson caught 122 passes last year for 1,964 yards and five touchdowns. In 1973, Harold Carmichael had 67 receptions, 1,116 yards and nine scores. Which season was better? You might be inclined to think Johnson’s season was much better regardless of era, but both receivers led their respective leagues in both receptions and receiving yards. But let’s think about it another way.

In 1973, all the players on the 26 teams in the NFL combined for a total of 4,603 catches and 58,009 receiving yards. That means Carmichael was responsible for 1.46% of all receptions and 1.92% of all receiving yards. Of course, with only 26 teams, we need to multiply those numbers by 26/32 make for an apples-to-apples comparison of the modern environment. If we want to transport Carmichael into 2012, that means he needs to be credited with 1.18% of all receptions and 1.56% of all receiving yards accumulated last year. That would give him 128 catches and 1,970 receiving yards, and thanks to recording 1.93% of all receiving touchdowns in 2012, 14.6 touchdowns.

This analysis is actually unfair to active players, as there are more three-, four-, and five-wide receiver sets than ever before. Elroy Hirsch gained 1,495 receiving yards in 12 games — an outstanding rate of production in any era — but that translates to an absurd 2,667 receiving yards in 2012. In Don Hutson’s magical 1942 season, after multiplying by 10/32, he gained 2.3% of the league’s receptions, 2.8% of the receiving yards, and 4.9% of the touchdowns — for a 254/3501/37 stat line.
[continue reading…]

Jacksonville’s Jimmy Smith was first eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2011. He was cut early in the process, failing to be one of the 26 semifinalists selected. A year later, he again failed to make the cut to 26, and was shut out at the same stage a few months ago, too.

To the extent that the Hall of Fame is supposed to mirror the consensus view, Smith’s absence from Canton is justified. But that’s only because he’s tragically underrated. If you take a normative view of how the Hall of Fame should operate, then the lack of traction Smith’s case has made is downright appalling.

No wide receiver of his caliber has ever been so overlooked. Even Art Monk was a finalist for the HOF every single year he was eligible until being inducted in 2008. Ditto Cris Carter, who was a finalist the first five years he was eligible before being selected for the Class of 2013. Tim Brown has been a finalist each of the first four years in which he’s been eligible. Smith, on the other hand, appears to have fallen through Canton’s cracks.

When I came up with my era-adjusted career rankings, Smith came in as the 12th best wide receiver in history. The issue with Smith has never been production but perception. Let’s go through the reasons Smith’s been overlooked.
[continue reading…]

On Monday, I explained my methodology for ranking every wide receiver in football history, and yesterday, I presented a list of the best single seasons of all time. Today the career list of the top 150 wide receivers. As usual, I implemented a 100/95/90 formula, giving a player credit for 100% of his production in his best season, 95% of his value in his second-best season, 90% in his third year, and so on. The table below is fully sortable and lists the first and last year each person played wide receiver ^[1]Note that I have excluded seasons where a wide receiver played running back or tight end. This is generally not a big deal, but does hurt someone like Lenny Moore.; you can use the search feature to find the best receiver to ever play for each team (for example, typing ‘ram’ for the Rams ‘clt’ for the Colts.)
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I explained my methodology for ranking every wide receiver in football history. Today I’m going to present a list of single-season leaders, which presents some problems.

I think the method I described yesterday does a good job adjusting for era, as receivers are only given credit for their yards above the baseline, which is different each season. But there are some other complicating factors unique to football. Seasons have had varying lengths: a receiver who plays 12 games in a 12-game season can’t be penalized the way you would penalize a receiver who only plays in 12 games now. Since older receivers are generally at a disadvantage for many reasons, I decided to simply pro-rate the value for all non-16 game seasons as if it was a 16-game season. However, I have also included downward adjustments for players in other leagues and during World War II. ^[1]The fine print: For players in 1943, 1944, and 1945, and for players in the AAFC, I only gave the receivers credit for 60% of the value they created. For the AFL, I gave players 60% of their value in … Continue reading

The table below lists the top 200 wide receiver seasons of all-time.
[continue reading…]

Regular readers know that one of my projects this off-season is to come up with a better way to grade wide receivers. I first attempted to rank every wide receiver four years ago. That study, which I will reproduce this week, has some positives and negatives. My goal is to eventually come up with four or five different ranking systems, so consider the series this week to be the first of several ranking systems to come.

The first step in this system is to combine the three main stats — receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns — into one stat: Adjusted Catch Yards. We know that a passing touchdown is worth about 20 yards, so I’m crediting a receiver with 20 yards for every touchdown reception. Next, we need to decide on an appropriate bonus for each reception.

We want to give receivers credit for receptions because, all else being equal, a receiver with more receptions is providing more value because he’s likely generating more first downs. I looked at all receivers over a 12-year period who picked up at least 30 receiving first downs. I then used the number of receptions and receiving yards those players had as inputs, and performed a regression to estimate how many first downs should be expected. The best-fit formula was:
[continue reading…]

On Monday, I argued that target data has some predictive value. I wanted to update that post with a few observations.

Wide Receiver Targets

In the original post, I looked at year-to-year data for all players with at least 500 receiving yards in Year N and at least 8 games played for the same team in Years N and N+1. But it makes more sense to limit the sample to only wide receivers if we want to predict how wide receivers project in the next season.

There are 554 pairs of wide receiver seasons that meet the above criteria. ^[1]I have again pro-rated all seasons to sixteen games. The best fit formula to project future receptions based on prior receptions and prior targets is:

Year N+1 Receptions = 14.0 + 0.547 * Yr_N_Rec + 0.124 * Yr_N_Tar

The R^2 is 0.39, and while the receptions variable is statistically significant by any measure, the targets variable just barely qualifies (p = 0.044) as such. Still, this tells us that for every 8 additional targets a receiver sees in Year N, we can expect one more reception in Year N+1, holding his number of receptions equal.

If we want to project receiving yards instead of receptions, we get:

Year N+1 Receiving Yards = 180.3 + 0.434 * Yr_N_RecYd + 2.55 * Yr_N_Tar

The R^2 is 0.33, implying a slightly less strong relationships, which makes sense: yards are more variable to large outliers than receptions, so you would expect receiving yards to be slightly harder to predict. Another interesting note: the targets variable here is statistically significant at the p = 0.0003 level, and as expected, the receiving yards variable is statistically significant at all levels. Holding receiving yards equal, a receiver would need an additional 19 targets to increase his projected number of receiving yards by 50, so the practical effect may not be all that large.

Addressing the multicollinearity problem
[continue reading…]

Reggie Wayne led the NFL in targets last year, but that’s a little misleading since the Colts ranked 6th in pass attempts. As a percentage of team targets, Wayne ranked second in the league, but he was a distant number two to Brandon Marshall, who saw two out of every five Bears passes in 2013.

But that doesn’t make him the best receiver. It was easier for Marshall to receive a high number of targets because the rest of the Chicago supporting cast was weak, so Jay Cutler consistently looked Marshall’s way. Chicago ranked 25th last year in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, so essentially we have a player on a bad passing offense receiving a ton of targets. It’s not all that obvious how you compare a player like that to Roddy White, who deserves credit for being in a great passing offense but loses targets because of the presence of Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez (of course, without them, would Matt Ryan start looking like Jay Cutler?)

I identified the leader in targets for each team, and then calculated the percentage of team targets each leading receiver had in 2012. The table below lists that percentage on the Y-Axis; the X-Axis represents the number of ANY/A that player’s team averaged. Someone like Marshall (represented by the first four letters of his last name and the first two letters of his first name, MarsBr) will therefore be high and to the left, while Randall Cobb is low and to the right:

[continue reading…]

In 2007, Doug Drinen and I wrote a pair of articles discussing our views on targets. I’m working on a wide receiver project this off-season, and a complete discussion of receiving statistics includes a discussion of targets.

Let me start with the prevailing few: targets are important, and if two receivers have the same production on a different number of targets, the one who produced on fewer targets is better/more valuable. Similarly, if all else is equal, the receiver with a higher catch rate — calculated as catches/target — is the better/more valuable one.

There are some problems with the prevailing view. By placing targets in the denominator of a formula, we’re implying that targets are a bad thing, or at a minimum, an opportunity wasted. But targets aren’t like pass attempts. Pro Football Focus has a stat called yards per pass route run, and that actually is the receiver version of yards per pass attempt. ^[1]Unfortunately, yards per pass route run is not going to help us if we want to grade receivers on a historical basis.

But targets don’t help identify the player who deserves blame: on a random incomplete pass, assume three receivers are running routes, and one of them is targeted. Absent a drop, I have a hard time saying that of the three wide receivers, the targeted one did the worst of the three. If we grade a receiver by his yards per route run, each receiver is equally penalized with one route run on the play; if we grade a receiver by yards per target, the two wide receivers that did not get open are not penalized, while the one that was targeted is penalized. That seems fundamentally wrong to me.

Here’s another problem: In a broad sense, the player with more targets (or percentage of his team’s targets) is in a very real sense a bigger part of his team’s offense. Either he’s open more often, or the quarterback is throwing in his direction even when he’s not open (whether because the coaches call more plays for him or because he’s earned the quarterback’s trust). In any event, the target itself is an indicator of quality, and penalizing a player — which is what you do when you place targets in the denominator — for an event that is highly correlated with quality is not something I’m comfortable doing.
[continue reading…]

The off-season is here.

But Football Perspective isn’t going anywhere. I prefer off-season writing to in-season writing, as football theory and history is more compelling to me than figuring out whether to rank the Lions ahead of the Bills. At the old Pro-Football-Reference Blog, we did some of our best work in the off-season, and I hope for the same results here.

Evan Silva just published a great piece detailing what each team needs in the off-season, but you’re not going to find that type of article here in the off-season. I will have some draft articles, but I don’t intend on staying topical all that often. My first big off-season project is to come up with a wide receiver ranking system.

I won’t bore you with all the details yet, but I think grading wide receivers (or for that matter, receiving tight ends) is much, much more complicated than people realize. I hope you guys are excited to participate the discussion, as I am in the early stages of this project and will go where the research takes me. One possible result I envision: the ultimate wide receiver ranking system does not exist, but a series of four or five ranking systems might give us the complete picture of a wide receiver.

Let me start with a question: which team had a better passing offense last year, Houston or Detroit? For now, try to ignore what we saw out of Matt Schaub in the post-season and just focus on the regular season results.
[continue reading…]

I was planning on ignoring the latest Randy Moss news, using that word liberally as it applies to things said on media day. In case you missed it, Moss said yesterday that he believes he is the greatest receiver of all time. Moss is an obvious future Hall of Famer, but Jason Lisk gave Moss’ comments the appropriate treatment yesterday.

Today, though, Moss upped the ante by noting that “Jerry Rice had two Hall of Fame QBs his whole career. Give me that and see where my numbers are.” Yes, Rice was fortunate to play with Joe Montana and Steve Young, , but there is a pretty simple response to that. I wrote that response when Rice was a finalist for the Hall of Fame three years ago. You can read the full HOF profile I wrote on Rice, but I’ve reprinted Part III below:
[continue reading…]

Anquan Boldin is back in the Super Bowl. Four years ago, Boldin and the Cardinals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII. That season, Boldin was one of the game’s best wide receivers, catching 89 passes for 1,038 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns in just 12 games. His production was slightly less impressive in 2012 — 65/921/4 in 15 games — but he was still a valuable member of the Ravens offense.

He signed with Baltimore in the 2010 offseason, and after a few heartbreaking post-seasons, Boldin and the Ravens are back in the Super Bowl. Since he was one of the team’s starting receivers this year, that makes him the 7th wide receiver to start for two different teams that reached a Super Bowl.

How many of the first six can you name (either with or without any hints)? For each receiver, the one hint shows the two Super Bowl franchises. Let us know how you did in the comments: as always, the honor system will be strictly enforced.

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses, and yesterday, I did the same for quarterbacks. Today we will check out the splits for receivers.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 4,000 receiving yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his career receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, and receiving yards per game in wins
– His number of career losses, and his career receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, and receiving yards per game in losses

You might be surprised to see Andre Johnson at the top of the list, but his career average should decline the longer he plays; that said, 2012 didn’t drop his numbers. On the flip side, Calvin Johnson moves up into the #2 slot; part of that was due to a great season (although Detroit didn’t get many wins) and part of that was due to Randy Moss slipping. Larry Fitzgerald comes up high on the list for the same reason as both Johnsons, although it’s often easy to forget how great Fitzgerald can be thanks to his current situation.

The table is sorted by receiving yards per game in wins:

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	Win	Rec_W	Yd_W	YPR_W	Y/G_W	Loss	Rec_L	Yd_L	YPR_L	Y/G_L
1	Andre Johnson	2003--2011	htx	WR	52	325	4739	14.58	91.1	72	394	5118	12.99	71.1
2	Randy Moss	1998--2010	min-rai-nwe-oti	WR	114	597	9960	16.68	87.4	93	404	5763	14.26	62
3	Michael Irvin	1988--1999	dal	WR	106	560	9133	16.31	86.2	62	277	4086	14.75	65.9
4	Larry Fitzgerald	2004--2011	crd	WR	59	352	5021	14.26	85.1	71	383	5299	13.84	74.6
5	Calvin Johnson	2007--2011	det	WR	23	113	1929	17.07	83.9	54	265	4154	15.68	76.9
6	Lance Alworth	1962--1972	sdg-dal	FL-WR	83	360	6872	19.09	82.8	42	172	3094	17.99	73.7
7	Jerry Rice	1985--2004	sfo-rai-sea	WR	207	1099	16909	15.39	81.7	118	598	8173	13.67	69.3
8	Art Powell	1960--1968	nyj-rai-buf-min	SE-WR	51	244	4160	17.05	81.6	45	215	3477	16.17	77.3
9	Jimmy Smith	1995--2005	jax	WR	96	512	7829	15.29	81.6	80	390	5105	13.09	63.8
10	Torry Holt	1999--2009	ram-jax	WR	93	486	7416	15.26	79.7	89	481	6596	13.71	74.1
11	Charley Hennigan	1960--1966	oti	WR	44	209	3501	16.75	79.6	40	201	3213	15.99	80.3
12	Steve Smith	2001--2011	car	WR	75	390	5898	15.12	78.6	84	356	5162	14.5	61.5
13	Del Shofner	1960--1967	ram-nyg	E	41	165	3213	19.47	78.4	31	86	1224	14.23	39.5
14	Dwayne Bowe	2007--2011	kan	WR	25	118	1948	16.51	77.9	49	238	2979	12.52	60.8
15	Don Maynard	1960--1973	nyj-crd	WR-HB	79	298	6150	20.64	77.8	76	305	5091	16.69	67
16	Terrell Owens	1996--2010	sfo-phi-dal-buf-cin	WR	131	655	10127	15.46	77.3	95	477	6558	13.75	69
17	Marvin Harrison	1996--2008	clt	WR	125	723	9649	13.35	77.2	81	444	5814	13.09	71.8
18	Sterling Sharpe	1988--1994	gnb	WR	52	292	3937	13.48	75.7	62	314	4426	14.1	71.4
19	DeSean Jackson	2008--2011	phi	WR	39	149	2934	19.69	75.2	25	93	1364	14.67	54.6
20	Wesley Walker	1977--1989	nyj	WR	73	272	5485	20.17	75.1	71	185	3195	17.27	45
21	Herman Moore	1991--2001	det	WR	63	314	4712	15.01	74.8	77	383	4936	12.89	64.1
22	Charlie Brown	1982--1987	was-atl	WR	42	177	3134	17.71	74.6	21	71	1014	14.28	48.3
23	Sonny Randle	1960--1968	crd-sfo-dal	E-WR	45	178	3330	18.71	74	45	155	2187	14.11	48.6
24	Greg Jennings	2006--2011	gnb	WR	61	279	4493	16.1	73.7	34	151	2243	14.85	66
25	Reggie Wayne	2001--2011	clt	WR	122	639	8938	13.99	73.3	63	306	3898	12.74	61.9
26	John Jefferson	1978--1985	sdg-gnb-cle	WR	54	238	3953	16.61	73.2	44	131	2091	15.96	47.5
27	Terry Glenn	1996--2007	nwe-gnb-dal	WR	79	379	5686	15	72	61	246	3574	14.53	58.6
28	Darnay Scott	1994--2002	cin-dal	WR	40	171	2852	16.68	71.3	77	237	3341	14.1	43.4
29	Buddy Dial	1960--1966	pit-dal	SE-FL	35	112	2494	22.27	71.3	31	110	2050	18.64	66.1
30	Isaac Bruce	1994--2009	ram-sfo	WR	114	529	8119	15.35	71.2	110	539	7848	14.56	71.3
31	Gary Clark	1985--1995	was-crd-mia	WR	107	484	7609	15.72	71.1	66	273	4073	14.92	61.7
32	Carl Pickens	1992--2000	cin-oti	WR	39	212	2746	12.95	70.4	84	328	4383	13.36	52.2
33	Homer Jones	1964--1970	nyg-cle	SE-WR	32	91	2240	24.62	70	47	131	2573	19.64	54.7
34	Marques Colston	2006--2011	nor	WR	61	313	4260	13.61	69.8	32	181	2608	14.41	81.5
35	Cris Carter	1987--2002	phi-min-mia	WR	132	701	9185	13.1	69.6	101	463	5584	12.06	55.3
36	Al Toon	1985--1992	nyj	WR	48	251	3336	13.29	69.5	58	287	3551	12.37	61.2
37	Anquan Boldin	2003--2011	crd-rav	WR	65	332	4482	13.5	69	67	405	5188	12.81	77.4
38	Pete Retzlaff	1960--1966	phi	WR-TE	42	155	2889	18.64	68.8	42	181	2807	15.51	66.8
39	Chad Ochocinco	2001--2011	cin-nwe	WR	74	350	5084	14.53	68.7	89	419	6049	14.44	68
40	Steve Largent	1976--1989	sea	WR	99	419	6797	16.22	68.7	106	423	6726	15.9	63.5
41	Raymond Berry	1960--1967	clt	E	57	263	3911	14.87	68.6	32	149	1978	13.28	61.8
42	Gary Garrison	1966--1977	sdg-oti	WR-SE	55	192	3764	19.6	68.4	63	201	3557	17.7	56.5
43	Darrell Jackson	2000--2008	sea-sfo-den	WR	61	282	4147	14.71	68	63	258	3488	13.52	55.4
44	Mike Quick	1982--1990	phi	WR	39	142	2645	18.63	67.8	57	216	3664	16.96	64.3
45	James Lofton	1978--1993	gnb-rai-buf-ram-phi	WR	109	395	7387	18.7	67.8	115	402	7254	18.04	63.1
46	Rob Moore	1990--1999	nyj-crd	WR	59	269	3998	14.86	67.8	94	374	5572	14.9	59.3
47	Fred Barnett	1990--1997	phi-mia	WR	59	243	3977	16.37	67.4	38	136	1668	12.26	43.9
48	Kellen Winslow	1979--1987	sdg	TE	58	320	3908	12.21	67.4	55	249	3213	12.9	58.4
49	George Sauer	1965--1970	nyj	SE-WR	45	172	3019	17.55	67.1	30	137	1977	14.43	65.9
50	Joe Horn	1996--2007	kan-nor-atl	WR	71	319	4739	14.86	66.7	77	285	4055	14.23	52.7
51	Otis Taylor	1965--1974	kan	WR-FL	75	265	4985	18.81	66.5	41	146	2323	15.91	56.7
52	Mark Duper	1983--1992	mia	WR	88	324	5839	18.02	66.4	55	219	3625	16.55	65.9
53	Bob Hayes	1965--1975	dal-sfo	SE-WR	87	268	5679	21.19	65.3	41	126	2128	16.89	51.9
54	Steve Watson	1979--1987	den	WR	63	223	4112	18.44	65.3	39	147	2314	15.74	59.3
55	Roddy White	2005--2011	atl	WR	62	296	4032	13.62	65	53	256	3535	13.81	66.7
56	Rod Smith	1995--2006	den	WR	121	575	7865	13.68	65	64	323	4384	13.57	68.5
57	Flipper Anderson	1988--1995	ram-clt	WR	34	99	2204	22.26	64.8	58	175	3323	18.99	57.3
58	Eddie Brown	1985--1991	cin	WR	53	175	3431	19.61	64.7	51	197	2802	14.22	54.9
59	Wes Welker	2004--2011	sdg-mia-nwe	WR	86	509	5554	10.91	64.6	45	194	2110	10.88	46.9
60	Derrick Alexander	1994--2002	cle-rav-kan-min	WR	48	167	3092	18.51	64.4	69	251	3909	15.57	56.7
61	Andre Reed	1985--2000	buf-was	WR	134	599	8621	14.39	64.3	106	437	5806	13.29	54.8
62	Antonio Gates	2003--2011	sdg	TE	80	375	5124	13.66	64.1	53	257	3108	12.09	58.6
63	Wes Chandler	1978--1988	nor-sdg-sfo	WR	61	234	3894	16.64	63.8	84	348	5419	15.57	64.5
64	Anthony Miller	1988--1997	sdg-den-dal	WR	71	272	4512	16.59	63.5	82	332	4773	14.38	58.2
65	Al Denson	1964--1971	den-min	WR-TE	25	89	1581	17.76	63.2	49	163	2608	16	53.2
66	Antonio Freeman	1995--2003	gnb-phi	WR	95	375	5978	15.94	62.9	41	155	2096	13.52	51.1
67	Lee Evans	2004--2011	buf-rav	WR	51	174	3203	18.41	62.8	67	211	2874	13.62	42.9
68	Plaxico Burress	2000--2011	pit-nyg-nyj	WR	95	385	5923	15.38	62.3	57	202	2969	14.7	52.1
69	Santana Moss	2001--2011	nyj-was	WR	74	285	4606	16.16	62.2	88	387	4963	12.82	56.4
70	Brandon Marshall	2006--2011	den-mia	WR	43	214	2676	12.5	62.2	48	280	3571	12.75	74.4
71	Keyshawn Johnson	1996--2006	nyj-tam-dal-car	WR	92	447	5691	12.73	61.9	82	406	5449	13.42	66.5
72	Joey Galloway	1995--2010	sea-dal-tam-nwe-was	WR	85	321	5205	16.21	61.2	107	393	5904	15.02	55.2
73	Muhsin Muhammad	1996--2009	car-chi	WR	105	477	6407	13.43	61	96	413	5589	13.53	58.2
74	Henry Ellard	1983--1998	ram-was-nwe	WR	99	343	6040	17.61	61	125	492	8079	16.42	64.6
75	Tommy McDonald	1960--1968	phi-dal-ram-atl-cle	WR-HB	49	166	2979	17.95	60.8	61	222	3493	15.73	57.3
76	Anthony Carter	1985--1995	min-det	WR	80	293	4853	16.56	60.7	62	233	3535	15.17	57
77	Art Monk	1980--1995	was-nyj-phi	WR	142	631	8609	13.64	60.6	95	378	5174	13.69	54.5
78	Red Phillips	1960--1967	ram-min	E	24	94	1455	15.48	60.6	53	214	3147	14.71	59.4
79	Roger Carr	1974--1983	clt-sea-sdg	WR	40	110	2425	22.05	60.6	60	163	2681	16.45	44.7
80	Paul Flatley	1963--1970	min-atl	WR-FL	34	117	2061	17.62	60.6	55	179	2742	15.32	49.9
81	David Boston	1999--2005	crd-sdg-mia	WR	27	109	1626	14.92	60.2	47	206	3073	14.92	65.4
82	Ernest Givins	1986--1995	oti-jax	WR	75	320	4516	14.11	60.2	80	311	4473	14.38	55.9
83	Dwight Clark	1979--1987	sfo	WR	81	343	4872	14.2	60.1	46	216	2648	12.26	57.6
84	Santonio Holmes	2006--2011	pit-nyj	WR	57	211	3425	16.23	60.1	38	152	2212	14.55	58.2
85	Paul Warfield	1964--1977	cle-mia	WR-SE	115	340	6892	20.27	59.9	47	132	2497	18.92	53.1
86	Laveranues Coles	2000--2009	nyj-was-cin	WR	71	323	4253	13.17	59.9	81	378	4638	12.27	57.3
87	Jimmy Orr	1960--1970	pit-clt	WR	73	219	4372	19.96	59.9	38	119	2119	17.81	55.8
88	Elbert Dubenion	1960--1967	buf	WR-HB	53	159	3172	19.95	59.8	42	127	2075	16.34	49.4
89	Ken Burrough	1970--1981	nor-oti	WR	67	222	3977	17.91	59.4	80	204	3230	15.83	40.4
90	Stephone Paige	1983--1991	kan	WR	57	180	3361	18.67	59	63	203	3089	15.22	49
91	Todd Christensen	1980--1988	rai	TE-FB	66	306	3888	12.71	58.9	41	186	2342	12.59	57.1
92	Louis Lipps	1984--1992	pit-nor	WR	48	169	2827	16.73	58.9	63	204	3376	16.55	53.6
93	Jeff Graham	1991--2001	pit-chi-nyj-phi-sdg	WR	57	222	3345	15.07	58.7	85	335	5064	15.12	59.6
94	Harold Jackson	1969--1983	phi-ram-nwe-min-sea	WR-FL	100	296	5864	19.81	58.6	84	292	4835	16.56	57.6
95	Tim Brown	1988--2004	rai-tam	WR	135	562	7907	14.07	58.6	127	577	7608	13.19	59.9
96	Tony Martin	1990--2001	mia-sdg-atl	WR	103	369	6031	16.34	58.6	76	267	3732	13.98	49.1
97	John Stallworth	1974--1987	pit	WR	103	361	6023	16.68	58.5	58	230	3687	16.03	63.6
98	Eric Martin	1985--1994	nor-kan	WR	85	315	4969	15.77	58.5	68	253	3396	13.42	49.9
99	Stanley Morgan	1977--1990	nwe-clt	WR	99	298	5787	19.42	58.5	86	278	5250	18.88	61
100	Alfred Jenkins	1975--1983	atl	WR	50	170	2903	17.08	58.1	60	196	3571	18.22	59.5
101	Jason Witten	2003--2011	dal	TE	77	381	4457	11.7	57.9	67	343	3745	10.92	55.9
102	Kellen Winslow Jr.	2004--2011	cle-tam	TE	34	153	1967	12.86	57.9	58	284	2869	10.1	49.5
103	Braylon Edwards	2005--2011	cle-nyj-sfo	WR	48	172	2759	16.04	57.5	57	184	2884	15.67	50.6
104	Cris Collinsworth	1981--1988	cin	WR	60	216	3446	15.95	57.4	48	222	3606	16.24	75.1
105	Gene A. Washington	1969--1979	sfo-det	WR-SE	60	178	3445	19.35	57.4	69	210	3535	16.83	51.2
106	John Gilliam	1967--1977	nor-crd-min-atl	WR-FL	69	206	3947	19.16	57.2	70	176	3017	17.14	43.1
107	Chris Burford	1960--1967	kan	SE-WR	52	205	2971	14.49	57.1	38	157	2292	14.6	60.3
108	Max McGee	1960--1967	gnb	E	57	177	3244	18.33	56.9	19	56	1067	19.05	56.2
109	Charlie Joiner	1969--1986	oti-cin-sdg	WR	114	404	6476	16.03	56.8	114	375	6132	16.35	53.8
110	Tony Hill	1977--1986	dal	WR	97	335	5508	16.44	56.8	46	190	3098	16.31	67.3
111	Bernie Casey	1961--1968	sfo-ram	FB-WR	45	162	2547	15.72	56.6	44	160	2331	14.57	53
112	Charley Taylor	1964--1977	was	WR-RB	87	341	4918	14.42	56.5	70	297	4071	13.71	58.2
113	Javon Walker	2002--2009	gnb-den-rai	WR	45	157	2537	16.16	56.4	38	123	1760	14.31	46.3
114	Jerry Butler	1979--1986	buf	WR	38	139	2139	15.39	56.3	47	146	2285	15.65	48.6
115	Carlos Carson	1980--1989	kan-phi	WR	50	147	2809	19.11	56.2	63	203	3444	16.97	54.7
116	Webster Slaughter	1986--1998	cle-oti-kan-nyj-sdg	WR	76	276	4265	15.45	56.1	84	314	4243	13.51	50.5
117	Hines Ward	1998--2011	pit	WR	145	684	8129	11.88	56.1	83	393	4996	12.71	60.2
118	Gail Cogdill	1960--1970	det-atl	SE-WR	54	172	3023	17.58	56	53	164	2431	14.82	45.9
119	Johnny Morris	1960--1967	chi	FL-HB	51	189	2847	15.06	55.8	37	141	1794	12.72	48.5
120	Chris Chambers	2001--2010	mia-sdg-kan	WR	74	273	4127	15.12	55.8	76	291	3928	13.5	51.7
121	Cliff Branch	1972--1984	rai	WR	129	401	7184	17.92	55.7	49	170	2739	16.11	55.9
122	Andre Rison	1989--2000	clt-atl-cle-jax-gnb-kan-rai	WR	92	361	5120	14.18	55.7	92	411	5500	13.38	59.8
123	Reggie Rucker	1970--1981	dal-nyg-nwe-cle	WR	70	235	3890	16.55	55.6	79	215	3234	15.04	40.9
124	Eddie Kennison	1996--2007	ram-nor-chi-den-kan	WR	75	245	4163	16.99	55.5	102	306	4232	13.83	41.5
125	Antonio Bryant	2002--2009	dal-cle-sfo-tam	WR	40	148	2217	14.98	55.4	64	225	3472	15.43	54.3
126	Donald Driver	1999--2011	gnb	WR	115	471	6368	13.52	55.4	76	313	4367	13.95	57.5
127	Marty Booker	1999--2009	chi-mia-atl	WR	57	242	3153	13.03	55.3	85	299	3568	11.93	42
128	Yancey Thigpen	1992--2000	pit-oti	WR	67	227	3701	16.3	55.2	33	121	1800	14.88	54.5
129	Tony Gonzalez	1997--2011	kan-atl	TE	122	562	6723	11.96	55.1	116	603	6772	11.23	58.4
130	Vance Johnson	1985--1995	den	WR	70	269	3856	14.33	55.1	51	183	2520	13.77	49.4
131	Curtis Conway	1993--2004	chi-sdg-nyj-sfo	WR	61	232	3359	14.48	55.1	97	369	4952	13.42	51.1
132	Roy Jefferson	1965--1976	pit-clt-was	WR-SE	78	251	4265	16.99	54.7	72	217	3494	16.1	48.5
133	Fred Biletnikoff	1965--1978	rai	WR-FL	136	475	7424	15.63	54.6	46	148	2137	14.44	46.5
134	Lionel Taylor	1960--1968	den-oti	WR	31	136	1691	12.43	54.5	71	405	5153	12.72	72.6
135	Vincent Jackson	2005--2011	sdg	WR	63	194	3429	17.68	54.4	33	107	1828	17.08	55.4
136	Jim Colclough	1960--1968	nwe	E	49	148	2666	18.01	54.4	45	112	1874	16.73	41.6
137	Carroll Dale	1960--1973	ram-gnb-min	WR-TE	91	245	4949	20.2	54.4	73	211	3660	17.35	50.1
138	Dave Parks	1964--1973	sfo-nor-oti	WR-TE	31	107	1681	15.71	54.2	67	215	3424	15.93	51.1
139	Shannon Sharpe	1990--2003	den-rav	TE	131	534	7100	13.3	54.2	69	343	3774	11	54.7
140	Ben Hawkins	1966--1973	phi	WR	28	75	1517	20.23	54.2	57	171	2945	17.22	51.7
141	Eric Moulds	1996--2007	buf-htx-oti	WR	89	344	4803	13.96	54	100	435	5512	12.67	55.1
142	Isaac Curtis	1973--1984	cin	WR	79	226	4263	18.86	54	75	203	3022	14.89	40.3
143	Brian Blades	1988--1998	sea	WR	66	268	3556	13.27	53.9	78	318	4142	13.03	53.1
144	Lynn Swann	1974--1982	pit	WR	94	302	5054	16.74	53.8	32	80	1300	16.25	40.6
145	Deion Branch	2002--2011	nwe-sea	WR	94	367	5048	13.75	53.7	51	197	2383	12.1	46.7
146	Sammy White	1976--1985	min	WR	68	211	3646	17.28	53.6	61	188	2893	15.39	47.4
147	Kevin House	1980--1987	tam-ram	WR	30	89	1608	18.07	53.6	70	218	3693	16.94	52.8
148	Haywood Jeffires	1987--1996	oti-nor	WR	65	272	3483	12.81	53.6	68	304	3364	11.07	49.5
149	Roy Green	1979--1992	crd-phi	WR	76	239	4066	17.01	53.5	104	318	4826	15.18	46.4
150	Ahmad Rashad	1972--1982	crd-buf-min	WR	71	271	3769	13.91	53.1	67	236	3295	13.96	49.2
151	Amani Toomer	1996--2008	nyg	WR	110	403	5831	14.47	53	89	307	4232	13.79	47.6
152	Bobby Mitchell	1960--1968	cle-was	WR-HB	52	175	2750	15.71	52.9	62	263	4192	15.94	67.6
153	Bill Brooks	1986--1996	clt-buf-was	WR	74	278	3910	14.06	52.8	85	332	4403	13.26	51.8
154	Harold Carmichael	1971--1984	phi-dal	WR-TE	82	279	4306	15.43	52.5	99	333	5001	15.02	50.5
155	Drew Pearson	1973--1983	dal	WR	121	391	6350	16.24	52.5	50	165	2577	15.62	51.5
156	Lance Rentzel	1965--1974	min-dal-ram	WR-FL	66	180	3458	19.21	52.4	42	94	1544	16.43	36.8
157	Irving Fryar	1984--2000	nwe-mia-phi-was	WR	119	398	6230	15.65	52.4	135	477	6845	14.35	50.7
158	Bert Emanuel	1994--2001	atl-tam-mia-nwe-det	WR	44	158	2300	14.56	52.3	52	202	2683	13.28	51.6
159	Keenan McCardell	1992--2007	cle-jax-tam-sdg-was	WR	123	495	6428	12.99	52.3	87	443	5567	12.57	64
160	Aaron Thomas	1961--1970	sfo-nyg	TE-SE	35	87	1828	21.01	52.2	55	170	2665	15.68	48.5
161	Mark Clayton	1983--1993	mia-gnb	WR	102	336	5303	15.78	52	65	278	4178	15.03	64.3
162	Jake Reed	1992--2002	min-nor	WR	72	251	3742	14.91	52	62	225	3666	16.29	59.1
163	Roy E. Williams	2004--2011	det-dal-chi	WR	46	161	2388	14.83	51.9	66	237	3386	14.29	51.3
164	Henry Marshall	1976--1987	kan	WR	58	188	2982	15.86	51.4	84	234	3635	15.53	43.3
165	John Taylor	1987--1995	sfo	WR	94	302	4825	15.98	51.3	35	91	1507	16.56	43.1
166	Ricky Sanders	1986--1995	was-atl	WR	80	286	4105	14.35	51.3	57	228	2889	12.67	50.7
167	Alvin Harper	1991--1997	dal-tam-was	WR	56	139	2871	20.65	51.3	29	76	1257	16.54	43.3
168	Frank Clarke	1960--1967	dal	E	37	112	1887	16.85	51	51	149	2959	19.86	58
169	Marcus Robinson	1998--2006	chi-rav-min	WR	47	160	2394	14.96	50.9	55	172	2441	14.19	44.4
170	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2001--2011	cin-sea-rav-rai	WR	57	253	2893	11.43	50.8	81	370	4286	11.58	52.9
171	Drew Hill	1979--1993	ram-oti-atl	WR	103	334	5220	15.63	50.7	105	339	5152	15.2	49.1
172	Michael Jackson	1991--1998	cle-rav	WR	39	127	1969	15.5	50.5	62	234	3556	15.2	57.4
173	Willie Davis	1992--1998	kan-oti	WR	61	183	3073	16.79	50.4	44	119	1669	14.03	37.9
174	Boyd Dowler	1960--1971	gnb-was	FL-SE	102	324	5112	15.78	50.1	40	119	1600	13.45	40
175	Derrick Mason	1997--2011	oti-rav-nyj-htx	WR	141	542	7053	13.01	50	97	450	5609	12.46	57.8
176	Johnnie Morton	1994--2005	det-kan-sfo	WR	75	267	3746	14.03	49.9	97	368	5092	13.84	52.5
177	Mark Carrier	1987--1998	tam-cle-car	WR	64	212	3188	15.04	49.8	102	366	5668	15.49	55.6
178	Danny Abramowicz	1967--1974	nor-sfo	E	30	97	1494	15.4	49.8	74	255	3884	15.23	52.5
179	Wayne Chrebet	1995--2005	nyj	WR	69	263	3435	13.06	49.8	81	336	4199	12.5	51.8
180	Dave Kocourek	1960--1968	sdg-mia-rai	TE-FL	55	157	2727	17.37	49.6	37	98	1509	15.4	40.8
181	Ed McCaffrey	1991--2003	nyg-sfo-den	WR	106	380	5212	13.72	49.2	58	227	2764	12.18	47.7
182	Michael Westbrook	1995--2002	was-cin	WR	39	135	1914	14.18	49.1	42	144	2361	16.4	56.2
183	Lionel Manuel	1984--1990	nyg	WR	50	143	2444	17.09	48.9	33	103	1740	16.89	52.7
184	Gary Collins	1962--1971	cle	WR	80	240	3877	16.15	48.5	42	95	1497	15.76	35.6
185	Robert Brooks	1992--2000	gnb-den	WR	67	226	3244	14.35	48.4	36	128	1683	13.15	46.8
186	Frank Sanders	1995--2003	crd-rav	WR	48	178	2323	13.05	48.4	80	336	4528	13.48	56.6
187	Jerry Porter	2000--2008	rai-jax	WR	38	116	1839	15.85	48.4	62	197	2573	13.06	41.5
188	Mel Gray	1971--1982	crd	WR	65	167	3113	18.64	47.9	78	188	3545	18.86	45.4
189	Tim McGee	1986--1994	cin-was	WR	53	145	2526	17.42	47.7	69	183	2737	14.96	39.7
190	Frank Lewis	1971--1983	pit-buf	WR	86	229	4098	17.9	47.7	58	190	3114	16.39	53.7
191	Bernard Berrian	2004--2011	chi-min	WR	58	178	2761	15.51	47.6	52	143	1827	12.78	35.1
192	Sean Dawkins	1993--2001	clt-nor-sea-jax	WR	54	173	2566	14.83	47.5	78	290	3960	13.66	50.8
193	Willie Gault	1983--1993	chi-rai	WR	98	227	4653	20.5	47.5	58	127	2479	19.52	42.7
194	Dallas Clark	2003--2011	clt	TE	88	358	4175	11.66	47.4	36	133	1559	11.72	43.3
195	Jessie Hester	1985--1995	rai-atl-clt-ram	WR	49	133	2318	17.43	47.3	73	241	3548	14.72	48.6
196	Michael Haynes	1988--1997	atl-nor	WR	52	155	2459	15.86	47.3	81	280	4288	15.31	52.9
197	Haven Moses	1968--1981	buf-den	WR-SE	82	199	3856	19.38	47	90	253	4425	17.49	49.2
198	Jackie Smith	1963--1978	crd-dal	TE	84	226	3950	17.48	47	77	235	3696	15.73	48
199	Mark Jackson	1986--1994	den-nyg-clt	WR	74	205	3472	16.94	46.9	53	159	2491	15.67	47
200	Terance Mathis	1990--2002	nyj-atl-pit	WR	86	299	4002	13.38	46.5	114	419	5206	12.42	45.7
201	Bob Chandler	1971--1981	buf-rai	WR	48	145	2233	15.4	46.5	67	229	3058	13.35	45.6
202	Milt Morin	1966--1975	cle	TE	56	165	2599	15.75	46.4	46	117	1710	14.62	37.2
203	Reggie Langhorne	1985--1993	cle-clt	WR	63	205	2923	14.26	46.4	59	229	2874	12.55	48.7
204	Pat Tilley	1976--1986	crd	WR	61	189	2830	14.97	46.4	74	280	4186	14.95	56.6
205	John Mackey	1963--1972	clt-sdg	TE	89	253	4128	16.32	46.4	33	77	1133	14.71	34.3
206	Michael Timpson	1989--1997	nwe-chi-phi	WR	41	137	1900	13.87	46.3	61	164	2154	13.13	35.3
207	Bill Schroeder	1997--2004	gnb-det-tam	WR	50	150	2311	15.41	46.2	47	159	2342	14.73	49.8
208	Chris Cooley	2004--2011	was	TE	48	187	2211	11.82	46.1	60	252	2635	10.46	43.9
209	Brett Perriman	1988--1997	nor-det-kan-mia	WR	74	258	3390	13.14	45.8	72	294	3522	11.98	48.9
210	Dave Casper	1974--1984	rai-oti-min	TE	70	230	3202	13.92	45.7	44	175	2377	13.58	54
211	Dave Logan	1976--1984	cle-den	WR	47	133	2147	16.14	45.7	47	133	2166	16.29	46.1
212	Bobby Joe Conrad	1960--1969	crd-dal	WR-HB	62	191	2830	14.82	45.6	55	192	2563	13.35	46.6
213	Koren Robinson	2001--2008	sea-min-gnb	WR	51	159	2325	14.62	45.6	46	150	2063	13.75	44.8
214	Bobby Engram	1996--2009	chi-sea-kan	WR	80	301	3641	12.1	45.5	101	384	4586	11.94	45.4
215	Gary Ballman	1962--1973	pit-phi-nyg-min	WR-TE	35	89	1565	17.58	44.7	68	212	3451	16.28	50.8
216	Nat Moore	1974--1986	mia	WR-RB	119	363	5315	14.64	44.7	55	163	2312	14.18	42
217	Duriel Harris	1976--1985	mia-cle-dal	WR	68	185	3037	16.42	44.7	44	133	2284	17.17	51.9
218	Jack Snow	1965--1975	ram	WR-SE	85	214	3773	17.63	44.4	42	115	1978	17.2	47.1
219	Freddie Scott	1974--1983	clt-det	WR	36	95	1592	16.76	44.2	58	173	2766	15.99	47.7
220	Ray Butler	1980--1988	clt-sea	WR	34	90	1503	16.7	44.2	64	152	2543	16.73	39.7
221	Devery Henderson	2005--2011	nor	WR	64	150	2828	18.85	44.2	47	104	1697	16.32	36.1
222	J.J. Stokes	1995--2003	sfo-jax-nwe	WR	66	238	2913	12.24	44.1	49	141	1812	12.85	37
223	Charlie Sanders	1968--1977	det	TE	60	174	2643	15.19	44.1	50	151	1995	13.21	39.9
224	Kevin Johnson	1999--2005	cle-jax-rav-det	WR	38	133	1672	12.57	44	63	255	3063	12.01	48.6
225	Donte Stallworth	2002--2011	nor-phi-nwe-cle-rav-was	WR	61	164	2656	16.2	43.5	55	170	2372	13.95	43.1
226	Freddie Solomon	1975--1985	mia-sfo	WR	83	214	3595	16.8	43.3	63	191	2788	14.6	44.3
227	Ben Coates	1991--2000	nwe-rav	TE	70	276	3019	10.94	43.1	70	249	2794	11.22	39.9
228	Vernon Davis	2006--2011	sfo	TE	42	150	1811	12.07	43.1	45	164	2284	13.93	50.8
229	Rocket Ismail	1993--2001	rai-car-dal	WR	61	168	2617	15.58	42.9	65	204	2865	14.04	44.1
230	Qadry Ismail	1993--2002	min-mia-nor-rav-clt	WR	83	228	3544	15.54	42.7	58	143	1880	13.15	32.4
231	O.J. McDuffie	1993--2000	mia	WR	71	248	3005	12.12	42.3	52	217	2672	12.31	51.4
232	Mark Bavaro	1985--1994	nyg-cle-phi	TE	77	239	3254	13.62	42.3	40	142	1845	12.99	46.1
233	James Jett	1993--2001	rai	WR	55	127	2322	18.28	42.2	53	142	2269	15.98	42.8
234	Brent Jones	1987--1997	sfo	TE	113	366	4769	13.03	42.2	33	111	1166	10.5	35.3
235	Jeremy Shockey	2002--2011	nyg-nor-car	TE	82	309	3450	11.17	42.1	61	260	2918	11.22	47.8
236	Chris Calloway	1990--2000	pit-nyg-atl-nwe	WR	64	170	2691	15.83	42	72	223	2891	12.96	40.2
237	David Patten	1997--2008	nyg-cle-nwe-was-nor	WR	77	200	3236	16.18	42	63	144	1739	12.08	27.6
238	J.T. Smith	1978--1990	was-kan-crd	WR	64	211	2671	12.66	41.7	91	323	4172	12.92	45.8
239	Brandon Stokley	1999--2011	rav-clt-den-sea-nyg	WR	80	226	3295	14.58	41.2	49	156	2005	12.85	40.9
240	Calvin Williams	1990--1996	phi-rav	WR	58	184	2381	12.94	41.1	41	141	1744	12.37	42.5
241	Nate Burleson	2003--2011	min-sea-det	WR	64	210	2626	12.5	41	60	204	2576	12.63	42.9
242	Ron Jessie	1971--1981	det-ram-buf	WR	74	181	3031	16.75	41	43	96	1431	14.91	33.3
243	Keith Jackson	1988--1996	phi-mia-gnb	TE	87	288	3560	12.36	40.9	47	204	2557	12.53	54.4
244	Jeff Chadwick	1983--1992	det-sea-ram	WR	44	103	1799	17.47	40.9	62	191	2750	14.4	44.4
245	Curtis Duncan	1987--1993	oti	WR	58	210	2368	11.28	40.8	42	146	1841	12.61	43.8
246	Mike Sherrard	1986--1996	dal-sfo-nyg-den	WR	62	162	2528	15.6	40.8	32	104	1476	14.19	46.1
247	Shawn Jefferson	1991--2003	sdg-nwe-atl-det	WR	96	253	3914	15.47	40.8	88	244	3390	13.89	38.5
248	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	422	4022	9.53	40.6	89	397	3372	8.49	37.9
249	Jabar Gaffney	2002--2011	htx-nwe-den-was	WR	66	199	2681	13.47	40.6	82	269	3223	11.98	39.3
250	Willie Green	1991--1998	det-tam-car-den	WR	55	147	2233	15.19	40.6	35	117	1844	15.76	52.7
251	Todd Heap	2001--2011	rav-crd	TE	83	273	3369	12.34	40.6	63	250	2791	11.16	44.3
252	Mike Ditka	1961--1972	chi-phi-dal	TE	80	239	3240	13.56	40.5	54	184	2416	13.13	44.7
253	Torrance Small	1992--2001	nor-ram-clt-phi-nwe	WR	51	141	2053	14.56	40.3	71	213	2624	12.32	37
254	Peerless Price	1999--2007	buf-atl-dal	WR	54	159	2158	13.57	40	67	254	3244	12.77	48.4
255	Mike Renfro	1978--1987	oti-dal	WR	53	140	2117	15.12	39.9	60	190	2759	14.52	46
256	Quinn Early	1988--1999	sdg-nor-buf-nyj	WR	73	203	2914	14.35	39.9	76	278	3790	13.63	49.9
257	Chris Burkett	1985--1993	buf-nyj	WR	41	110	1635	14.86	39.9	66	185	2772	14.98	42
258	Ike Hilliard	1997--2008	nyg-tam	WR	79	258	3148	12.2	39.8	85	312	3534	11.33	41.6
259	Drew Bennett	2001--2008	oti-ram	WR	44	116	1752	15.1	39.8	53	205	2868	13.99	54.1
260	Jerricho Cotchery	2004--2011	nyj-pit	WR	62	206	2461	11.95	39.7	58	199	2761	13.87	47.6
261	Mike Pritchard	1991--1999	atl-den-sea	WR	58	172	2297	13.35	39.6	67	263	3043	11.57	45.4
262	Nate Washington	2005--2011	pit-oti	WR	55	139	2175	15.65	39.5	45	137	1892	13.81	42
263	Riley Odoms	1972--1983	den	TE	83	220	3279	14.9	39.5	61	176	2379	13.52	39
264	Sam McCullum	1974--1983	min-sea	WR	51	131	2003	15.29	39.3	63	150	2128	14.19	33.8
265	Jay Novacek	1985--1995	crd-dal	TE	84	298	3281	11.01	39.1	52	186	1994	10.72	38.3
266	Ozzie Newsome	1978--1990	cle	TE	102	324	3977	12.27	39	98	365	4376	11.99	44.7
267	Bob Trumpy	1968--1977	cin	TE-WR	60	147	2331	15.86	38.9	58	147	2103	14.31	36.3
268	Raymond Chester	1970--1981	rai-clt	TE	80	199	3099	15.57	38.7	63	172	2146	12.48	34.1
269	Travis Taylor	2000--2007	rav-min-rai-ram	WR	52	153	2013	13.16	38.7	50	172	2162	12.57	43.2
270	Joe Jurevicius	1998--2007	nyg-tam-sea-cle	WR	68	195	2629	13.48	38.7	51	145	1832	12.63	35.9
271	Wesley Walls	1989--2003	sfo-nor-car-gnb	TE	68	206	2604	12.64	38.3	81	253	2766	10.93	34.1
272	Ricky Proehl	1990--2006	crd-sea-chi-ram-car-clt	WR	112	299	4279	14.31	38.2	117	393	4962	12.63	42.4
273	Bob Tucker	1970--1980	nyg-min	TE	56	161	2129	13.22	38	82	255	3187	12.5	38.9
274	Steve Jordan	1982--1994	min	TE	86	255	3269	12.82	38	81	269	3381	12.57	41.7
275	Leonard Thompson	1975--1986	det	WR-HB	52	116	1976	17.03	38	80	169	2868	16.97	35.9
276	Charles Johnson	1994--2002	pit-phi-nwe-buf	WR	69	204	2616	12.82	37.9	49	173	2283	13.2	46.6
277	Jerry Smith	1965--1977	was	TE-WR	75	206	2841	13.79	37.9	60	190	2344	12.34	39.1
278	Rich Caster	1970--1981	nyj-oti-nor-was	TE-WR	58	123	2197	17.86	37.9	76	207	3385	16.35	44.5
279	Michael Jenkins	2004--2011	atl-min	WR	52	144	1954	13.57	37.6	54	184	2168	11.78	40.1
280	Alge Crumpler	2001--2010	atl-oti-nwe	TE	73	196	2740	13.98	37.5	68	191	2168	11.35	31.9
281	Paul Coffman	1979--1987	gnb-kan	TE	49	145	1838	12.68	37.5	62	196	2489	12.7	40.1
282	Courtney Hawkins	1992--2000	tam-pit	WR	55	170	2059	12.11	37.4	70	204	2572	12.61	36.7
283	Russ Francis	1975--1988	nwe-sfo	TE	96	277	3587	12.95	37.4	55	151	2149	14.23	39.1
284	Billy Cannon	1960--1970	oti-rai-kan	TE-RB	80	174	2986	17.16	37.3	31	81	945	11.67	30.5
285	Jimmie Giles	1977--1989	oti-tam-det-phi	TE	50	122	1861	15.25	37.2	88	232	3306	14.25	37.6
286	Brian Brennan	1984--1992	cle-cin-sdg	WR	61	172	2267	13.18	37.2	62	184	2378	12.92	38.4
287	Eric Green	1990--1999	pit-mia-rav-nyj	TE	55	167	2017	12.08	36.7	57	200	2488	12.44	43.6
288	Troy Brown	1993--2007	nwe	WR	120	392	4392	11.2	36.6	81	223	2668	11.96	32.9
289	Gino Cappelletti	1960--1970	nwe	FL-SE	63	132	2305	17.46	36.6	70	139	2037	14.65	29.1
290	Justin McCareins	2001--2008	oti-nyj	WR	61	145	2230	15.38	36.6	53	118	1806	15.31	34.1
291	Rick Upchurch	1975--1983	den	WR	67	151	2439	16.15	36.4	53	117	1939	16.57	36.6
292	Frank Wycheck	1993--2003	was-oti	TE	86	299	3129	10.46	36.4	67	243	2310	9.51	34.5
293	Heath Miller	2005--2011	pit	TE	80	239	2863	11.98	35.8	39	138	1498	10.86	38.4
294	Floyd Turner	1989--1998	nor-clt-rav	WR	46	129	1638	12.7	35.6	54	167	2382	14.26	44.1
295	Mark Ingram	1987--1996	nyg-mia-gnb-phi	WR	65	153	2301	15.04	35.4	47	128	1815	14.18	38.6
296	Ken Dilger	1995--2004	clt-tam	TE	69	192	2439	12.7	35.3	75	180	1819	10.11	24.3
297	Rodney Holman	1982--1995	cin-det	TE	81	210	2816	13.41	34.8	79	173	2200	12.72	27.8
298	Dennis Northcutt	2000--2009	cle-jax-det	WR	49	132	1702	12.89	34.7	97	278	3390	12.19	34.9
299	Pete Holohan	1981--1992	sdg-ram-kan-cle	TE	62	190	2149	11.31	34.7	63	189	1995	10.56	31.7
300	Mickey Shuler	1978--1991	nyj-phi	TE	68	222	2352	10.59	34.6	71	248	2845	11.47	40.1
301	Jerome Barkum	1972--1983	nyj	TE-WR	54	129	1855	14.38	34.4	72	201	2990	14.88	41.5
302	Az-Zahir Hakim	1998--2006	ram-det-nor	WR	57	145	1917	13.22	33.6	55	192	2558	13.32	46.5
303	Brian Westbrook	2002--2010	phi-sfo	RB	80	269	2658	9.88	33.2	49	203	1605	7.91	32.8
304	Larry Centers	1990--2003	crd-was-buf-nwe	FB	84	341	2782	8.16	33.1	119	507	4177	8.24	35.1
305	John L. Williams	1986--1995	sea-pit	FB	81	290	2677	9.23	33	75	287	2222	7.74	29.6
306	Brandon Lloyd	2003--2011	sfo-was-chi-den-ram	WR	32	81	1049	12.95	32.8	73	230	3735	16.24	51.2
307	Billy Johnson	1974--1988	oti-atl-was	WR	65	159	2110	13.27	32.5	71	176	2077	11.8	29.3
308	Randy McMichael	2002--2011	mia-ram-sdg	TE	53	160	1686	10.54	31.8	88	257	2802	10.9	31.8
309	Roger Craig	1983--1993	sfo-rai-min	RB	127	431	4005	9.29	31.5	53	195	1500	7.69	28.3
310	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	289	2851	9.87	31.3	63	215	1815	8.44	28.8
311	Ronnie Harmon	1986--1997	buf-sdg-oti-chi	RB-WR	94	283	2934	10.37	31.2	89	350	3612	10.32	40.6
312	Tiki Barber	1997--2006	nyg	RB	80	267	2497	9.35	31.2	80	338	2817	8.33	35.2
313	Eric Metcalf	1989--2002	cle-atl-sdg-crd-car-was-gnb	RB-WR	83	238	2564	10.77	30.9	102	317	3185	10.05	31.2
314	Jim R. Mitchell	1969--1979	atl	TE	57	139	1759	12.65	30.9	66	160	2375	14.84	36
315	Keith Byars	1986--1998	phi-mia-nwe-nyj	FB-TE	119	390	3665	9.4	30.8	79	272	2439	8.97	30.9
316	Freddie Jones	1997--2004	sdg-crd	TE	37	109	1131	10.38	30.6	79	295	3101	10.51	39.3
317	Tony Nathan	1979--1987	mia	RB	89	290	2705	9.33	30.4	45	158	1536	9.72	34.1
318	Tony McGee	1993--2002	cin-dal	TE	39	92	1178	12.8	30.2	89	230	2911	12.66	32.7
319	Jackie Harris	1990--2001	gnb-tam-oti-dal	TE	63	157	1881	11.98	29.9	79	251	2650	10.56	33.5
320	Joe Morrison	1960--1972	nyg	RB-WR	66	147	1958	13.32	29.7	79	224	2747	12.26	34.8
321	Charle Young	1973--1985	phi-ram-sfo-sea	TE	76	190	2253	11.86	29.6	71	241	3002	12.46	42.3
322	David Hill	1976--1987	det-ram	TE	71	182	2091	11.49	29.5	76	187	2211	11.82	29.1
323	Billy Joe DuPree	1973--1983	dal	TE	101	213	2933	13.77	29	42	93	1079	11.6	25.7
324	Antwaan Randle El	2002--2010	pit-was	WR	88	184	2473	13.44	28.1	66	220	2402	10.92	36.4
325	Kelvin Martin	1987--1996	dal-sea-phi	WR	68	138	1839	13.33	27	74	238	3023	12.7	40.9
326	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	346	3411	9.86	26.2	71	202	1719	8.51	24.2
327	Marcus Pollard	1996--2008	clt-det-sea-atl	TE	81	183	2113	11.55	26.1	81	185	2402	12.98	29.7
328	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	341	2683	7.87	25.8	76	308	2265	7.35	29.8
329	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	278	2645	9.51	23.4	86	236	2071	8.78	24.1
330	Herschel Walker	1986--1997	dal-min-phi-nyg	RB	84	211	1957	9.27	23.3	106	311	2962	9.52	27.9
331	Kevin Faulk	1999--2011	nwe	RB	125	328	2885	8.8	23.1	54	154	1228	7.97	22.7
332	Marcus Allen	1982--1997	rai-kan	RB	145	341	3186	9.34	22	91	299	2755	9.21	30.3
333	Warrick Dunn	1997--2008	tam-atl	RB	98	244	2141	8.77	21.8	92	301	2454	8.15	26.7
334	Earnest Byner	1984--1997	cle-was-rav	RB	111	271	2399	8.85	21.6	102	278	2584	9.29	25.3
335	Tony Galbreath	1976--1987	nor-min-nyg	RB	79	175	1470	8.4	18.6	90	326	2667	8.18	29.6

[continue reading…]

Three weeks ago, I set forth the argument that perhaps Calvin Johnson was not even the most productive receiver in his own division. While Megatron racked up the numbers, I argued that you have to account for the situation. The relevant situation here is that the Lions ran an incredible 1,160 plays compared to just 999 for the Bears, and Detroit attempted 740 passes while Chicago threw only 485 times.

When one team throws 255 more passes than the other, I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare the receivers based on their raw receiving yards. One thing we could look at is yards per team attempt. The table below lists the number of team attempts for each wide receiver, his raw receiving statistics, and also his yards per attempt. The table is sorted by yards per team passing attempt. And while it is not relevant when discussing Marshall and Megatron, I have also included a Pro-rated Yards per Attempt column, which pro-rates the number of team attempts for the number of games played by the receiver (this helps Percy Harvin, of course).

As it turns out, Calvin Johnson was neither the best Johnson nor the best receiver in his division, at least as measured by this metric. I’m not convinced or even arguing that yards/attempt is the best way to rank receivers, but I do think the statistic represents an improvement on just receiving yards. Since receiving yards are so highly correlated with attempts, some adjustment needs to be made, and I plan on providing more analysis on how to grade wide receivers this off-season.
[continue reading…]