Nine years ago today, Anquan Boldin became a household name in his very first game. Boldin gained 217 receiving yards, the most in week 1 of an NFL season since Frank Clarke in 1962 and the most by any player in his first game.

It was as amazing was it was unexpected. Boldin was a second-round pick who had an solid college career but one tarnished by an ACL tear that caused him to miss his junior season and struggle at the Combine. He wasn’t even the highest wide receiver drafted by the Cardinals, who selected Bryant Johnson in round 1 despite the fact that he never won a college football game. No one had high expectations for the Arizona offense, with Jeff Blake at quarterback and Dave McGinnis as head coach; the Cardinals would ultimately end up last in the NFL in points scored. As an unheralded rookie on a bad team, Boldin wasn’t one of the top sixty wide receivers drafted in fantasy leagues, and probably wasn’t even among the top 100. That makes his production even more incredible.

The table below lists the best fantasy performances by wide receivers in week 1 of the NFL since 2000, with 1 point per reception, 0.1 points per receiving yards, and 6 points per touchdown. The “Exp” column shows the experience level of the receiver; the last column shows the player’s Average Draft Position among wide receivers, if in the top sixty.
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New England has had one of the most creative and flexible offenses for the last decade. From 2002 to 2011, the Patriots offense was always good but it was rarely predictable. On paper, the Patriots arguably have their best and deepest set of skill position players in franchise history. But with the addition of Brandon Lloyd to a group that includes Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, many are wondering what the breakdown will be in the passing game in 2012. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady passed for the second most yards in NFL history last year and then the team signed Josh McDaniels’ favorite Brandon Lloyd.

Before speculating on the 2012 season, we need to look at how the Patriots passing game has operated in the past. The chart below shows a breakdown of targets in the New England passing game for each of the past ten years by position:

Some thoughts:

• Kevin Faulk used to get around 55 targets per season, but New England has essentially fazed the running back out of the passing game. I doubt that is by design, but more a reflection of New England’s failure to find the right replacement at the position. Note that New England signed ex-Florida Gator running back and Olympic silver medalist Jeff Demps last week, although he is unlikely to make an immediate impact.
• From ’02 to ’05, the Patriots had a pretty consistent offense. Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch, and David Givens each spent time as the main receiver, and in ’02, ’04 and ’05, wide receivers as a group saw 63-64% of the Patriots’ targets. In ’03, Brown had fallen off while Givens and Patten weren’t main cogs in the offense, but otherwise, New England’s offensive philosophy didn’t vary. Then, after the 2005 season, the Patriots traded Deion Branch, who had seen 23% of the team’s targets in that season. The ’06 Patriots responded by throwing more to Ben Watson, which ultimately proved not to be the answer.
• In 2006, Reche Caldwell led the team in targets, which prompted the Patriots to add Randy Moss and Wes Welker in the following off-season. Whereas the targets for the WR1 and WR2 had been declining from ’04 to ’06, in 2007, Moss and Welker received over 50% of the team’s targets, and the tight ends and running backs became less integral. In 2008, even without Brady, little changed with Matt Cassel running the offense, with the most notable decline being the lack of targets for the fourth, fifth and sixth wide receivers. 2009 resembled 2007, as Brady got the Sam Aikens and Joey Galloways of the world involved. By that time, the Patriots were running a full spread offense, and had almost entirely forgotten about the tight end. But much of that was out of necessity: Ben Watson was in his final year with the team and the Patriots wanted more speed on the field; New England had signed Chris Baker to be the backup tight end, but the long-time Jet had little left in his tank.
• In that context, perhaps it isn’t surprising that New England added Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2010 draft. Moss had worn out his welcome, and New England struggled to find a true replacement. The Patriots turned to their young tight ends, along with Danny Woodhead, but still were weak at wide receiver as Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman were not competent as backup wide receivers. In the off-season, the Patriots signed Chad Ochocinco, which turned out to be a disaster. Outside of the WR1 and WR2, the other wide receivers and the running backs averaged 39% of the team’s targets from ’02 to ’10; in 2011, that number dropped to 18%, the first time that group failed to have at least 31% of the team’s targets. In ’03, for example, the backup WRs and the RBs had nearly 50% of the targets, but the talent was there: David Givens, Bethel Johnson, David Patten, Kevin Faulk, Larry Centers and Antowain Smith weren’t stars, but were competent in their roles. Last year, Ochocinco, Edelman and Tiquan Underwood added almost nothing, while only Woodhead was a threat in the passing game among the running backs.

So what can we expect for 2011? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is gone, but New England doesn’t seem likely to give Shane Vereen many more targets. I think we can safely conclude that the Patriots won’t be depending on their running backs to gain yards through the air in 2012. But I do think the Patriots want more from their wide receivers, and the signing of Brandon Lloyd should increase the production of both the WR2 and the WR3, which is where Branch will now be. Assuming he isn’t cut, I doubt Branch is fazed out completely — Ochocinco saw only 5% of the Patriots targets last year, but usually New England will target their third wide receiver around 10% of the time. With so many mouths to feed, Welker is likely to see a small decline in attention. If we put Welker at 23%, Lloyd at 19%, Branch at 9% and the other wide receivers at 3%, that would mean Brady would target his receivers on 54% of his passes. Giving the running backs 10% — the same number as last season — would leave 36% for the tight ends. We’ll probably see both Gronkowski and Hernandez each up with 18% of the targets, as Brady hasn’t shown a significant preference for either player.

Assuming strong production per target, it’s certainly possible for Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez to all have monster years in 2011 *and* for Brandon Lloyd to improve on Branch’s numbers and for Branch to improve on Ochocinco’s performance. Of course, all of this assumes — or signals — that Tom Brady is going to have a monster year if things go according to plan. But to expect Brady to improve on last year’s numbers may be asking too much.

For fantasy purposes, the bigger question might be about the size of the pie rather than about its breakdown. If New England’s defense is better, the Patriots could certainly end up passing less this year. Brady may be more effective per pass, and could put up lofty touchdown numbers, but without a high number of attempts (aided by a bad defense) it’s unlikely we see Brady set his sights on 5,000 yards again. I think the Patriots offense can handle the addition of Brandon Lloyd, and think it’s clear that Belichick wants to incorporate that vertical threat on the outside into his offense. And let’s not forget, the offensive line is as unsettled as it’s been in years. From a fantasy perspective, though, it will be important not to chase last year’s numbers too much.

If Welker and Gronkowski each lose 10% of their targets, and then the Patriots also throw 5% less frequently, those small slices can add up. Welker with 100 catches is a lot less valuable than Welker with 122 catches. I don’t think any of the stars in New England bust, but if that defense can approach league average levels, all of the Patriots stars may end up failing to live up to their fantasy draft status. I suspect that Brady finds the open receiver and doesn’t lock on any of his targets, leaving Gronkowski, Welker, Lloyd and Hernandez with very similar receiving yards totals. Gronkowski should lead in touchdowns and Welker in receptions, but otherwise good luck predicting which player Brady will lock in on in any given week. One mark that could possibly fall: New England might be the first team to have four 1,000-yard receivers in the same season.

There have been 105 teams to have at least two players gain 1,000 receiving yards in a season. It first happened in 1960 in the AFL, where wide receivers benefited by playing against lower quality of defensive backs and also a fourteen-game schedule (the NFL schedule switched from a 12 to 14 games the following year). New York’s Don Maynard led the team with 1,265 yards, while Art Powell finished with 1,167. Maynard and Powell repeated the feat in 1962, and then Maynard and the Jets’ George Sauer also joined the club in ’67 and ’68. In total, seven different AFL teams fielded a pair of 1,000 yard receivers, with Bill Groman and Charley Hennigan (1961, Houston), Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff (1968, Oakland) and Lance Alworth and Gary Garrison (1968, San Diego) rounding out the list.

But in the NFL, no team fielded a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in the ’60s, even with the 14-game schedule. And as professional football entered the dead ball era in the 1970s, it wasn’t until the passing rules changes and the advent of the 16-game schedule that an NFL team — in fact, three NFL teams — first fielded multiple 1,000-yard receivers.

In 2010, DeSean Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards, with 1,056, and led the NFL with a spectacular 22.5 yards per catch.

Malcolm Floyd led the league in yards per catch at 19.9, but it was Vincent Jackson who led San Diego in receiving yards. If you look only at the leading wide receiver on each team (based on receiving yards), do you know which wide receiver led the NFL in yards per reception in 2011?

Last weekend, I asked you to name the fifth of the five running backs who rushed for over 1,000 rushing yards in the final season of their career. Today, let’s switch positions: there are three players who gained at least 1,000 receiving yards in the final seasons of their careers.

Terrell Owens gained 983 yards with the Bengals in 2010, his last season — to date — in the league. This is one of the rare trivia questions where Jerry Rice’s name doesn’t enter the conversation — he had just 429 receiving yards in his final season. The famed triumvirate of wide receivers on the outside looking in at the Hall — Tim Brown, Andre Reed, and Cris Carter — gained just 200, 103, and 66 yards, respectively, in their final seasons. Marvin Harrison gained 636 yards in his last season, and don’t forget, Randy Moss isn’t yet retired.

One of the three players is so obscure I doubt anyone would get it. Reggie Langhorne played for seven years in Cleveland and then set a career high with 811 yards in his first season with the Colts. The next year, 1993, Langhorne broke 1,000 yards for the first time in his career: and he never played in the NFL again. In a salary cap purge, the Colts released several veterans, including Langhorne, following the ’93 season. Content with his career, Langhorne decided to never suit up again.

But the other two receivers are well-known in all football circles. Can you name the other two players to gain 1,000 receiving yards in their final NFL seasons?

Let’s start with some trivia before moving to today’s post:

• Only two quarterback-receiver pairs have ever topped the 10,000 yard mark. Can you name them?

  Hint:	SelectShow
  The same quarterback was part of both pairs.

• Only two receivers (minimum: 7,000 yards) gained at least 93% of their career receiving yards from one quarterback. Do you know who they are?

  Hint:	SelectShow
  The same quarterback was part of both pairs, but this is a different quarterback than from question 1.

• Two of the men in the top ten in career receiving yards can credit the same quarterback account for more of their yards than any other passer. Can you name that quarterback?

  Hint	SelectShow
  The receivers won a Super Bowl ring, but the quarterback never did.

• Can you name the receiver who gained over 10,000 yards in his career, but the quarterback from whom he gained the most yards was… Quincy Carter?

  Hint	SelectShow
  Spoiler: Quincy Carter wasn’t very good.

• Among the top twenty-five leaders in career receiving yards, can you guess which player was the only one to fail to catch at least 20% of his yards from a single quarterback?

  Hint	SelectShow
  One of his quarterbacks was Dan Marino.

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On Wednesday, we looked at the franchise leaders in various passing categories; yesterday we did the same exercise with rushing stats. Well, let’s close out Friday with a look at the career leaders in the key receiving categories.

Did you know: only one player who leads his franchise in career receptions retired before the 1978 rules changes:

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On Tuesday, I looked at running back records and argued that Steven Jackson had taken the mantle from Ollie Matson as the most prominent elite running back to have toiled for losing teams for the majority of his career. It’s easy to feel bad for a player like Jackson, relegated to consistent attack as the focal point of opposing defenses for a decade, continuously grinding out yardage while playing for bad teams.

Things are a little different for wide receivers. In fact, it’s often easier for wide receivers to produce better stats while playing for bad teams, since trailing teams are forced to throw later in games. Further, wide receivers don’t face the constant pounding that running backs encounter, making them slightly less sympathetic figures. Still, it’s an interesting question, and one that’s easy enough to answer. Which wide receivers have played for the best and worst teams? Any guesses? The results, after the jump.

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Justin Blackmon was the first receiver selected in April’s draft. What are the odds that the former Oklahoma State Cowboy will be the best rookie receiver in 2012? And how likely is it that Blackmon will ultimately be the best receiver out of his class?

In some ways, it’s an unfair question. There were 33 receivers selected, including six in the first two rounds. The likelihood of Blackmon being the most productive is certainly greater than 1 out of 33, but how much greater is it? ^[1]I’m not going to comment on how Justin Blackmon was arrested on an aggregated DUI charge on June 3.

We don’t know, and we won’t know until his career (and the careers of his draft mates) ultimately unfolds, but we can speculate based on historical results.

Since the NFL merger, how frequently has the top drafted receiver ended up being the best rookie? Five out of 42 times, the top-selected rookie led his draft class in receiving yards that season. Believe it or not, before A.J. Green did it last season, Chicago’s Willie Gault in 1983 was the last to do so. The table below lists the top rookies selected in each of the last 42 drafts, along with their overall draft pick, and the number of receiving yards they recorded as rookies. The last two columns list the top rookie receiver (by receiving yards) and what percentage of that number of receiving yards the highest drafted rookie achieved.

Year	Receiver	Team	Pick	College	Rook Yds	% of Leader	Top Rookie
2011	A.J. Green	CIN	4	Georgia	1057	1.00	A.J. Green
2010	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	22	Georgia Tech	283	0.29	Mike Williams
2009	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	7	Maryland	124	0.16	Hakeem Nicks
2008	Donnie Avery	STL	33	Houston	674	0.69	Eddie Royal
2007	Calvin Johnson	DET	2	Georgia Tech	756	0.76	Dwayne Bowe
2006	Santonio Holmes	PIT	25	Ohio St.	824	0.79	Marques Colston
2005	Braylon Edwards	CLE	3	Michigan	512	0.90	Reggie Brown
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	3	Pittsburgh	780	0.65	Michael Clayton
2003	Charles Rogers	DET	2	Michigan St.	243	0.18	Anquan Boldin
2002	Donte Stallworth	NOR	13	Tennessee	594	0.81	Antonio Bryant
2001	David Terrell	CHI	8	Michigan	415	0.47	Chris Chambers
2000	Peter Warrick	CIN	4	Florida St.	592	0.83	Darrell Jackson
1999	Torry Holt	STL	6	North Carolina St.	788	0.80	Kevin Johnson
1998	Kevin Dyson	TEN	16	Utah	263	0.20	Randy Moss
1997	Ike Hilliard	NYG	7	Florida	42	0.08	Rae Carruth
1996	Keyshawn Johnson	NYJ	1	USC	844	0.75	Terry Glenn
1995	Michael Westbrook	WAS	4	Colorado	522	0.50	Joey Galloway
1994	Charles Johnson	PIT	17	Colorado	577	0.67	Darnay Scott
1993	Curtis Conway	CHI	7	USC	231	0.36	Horace Copeland
1992	Desmond Howard	WAS	4	Michigan	20	0.06	Courtney Hawkins
1991	Herman Moore	DET	10	Virginia	135	0.17	Lawrence Dawsey
1990	Alexander Wright	DAL	26	Auburn	104	0.13	Ricky Proehl
1989	Hart Lee Dykes	NWE	16	Oklahoma St.	795	0.92	Shawn Collins
1988	Tim Brown	RAI	6	Notre Dame	725	0.92	Sterling Sharpe
1987	Haywood Jeffires	HOU	20	North Carolina St.	89	0.14	Ricky Nattiel
1986	Mike Sherrard	DAL	18	UCLA	744	0.66	Bill Brooks
1985	Al Toon	NYJ	10	Wisconsin	662	0.70	Eddie Brown
1984	Irving Fryar	NWE	1	Nebraska	164	0.19	Louis Lipps
1983	Willie Gault	CHI	18	Tennessee	836	1.00	Willie Gault
1982	Anthony Hancock	KAN	11	Tennessee	116	0.46	Lindsay Scott
1981	David Verser	CIN	10	Kansas	161	0.16	Cris Collinsworth
1980	Lam Jones	NYJ	2	Texas	482	0.60	Art Monk
1979	Jerry Butler	BUF	5	Clemson	834	1.00	Jerry Butler
1978	Wes Chandler	NOR	3	Florida	472	0.47	John Jefferson
1977	Stanley Morgan	NWE	25	Tennessee	443	0.60	Wesley Walker
1976	Billy Brooks	CIN	11	Oklahoma	191	0.21	Sammy White
1975	Larry Burton	NOR	7	Purdue	305	0.70	Rick Upchurch
1974	Lynn Swann	PIT	21	USC	208	0.34	Nat Moore
1973	Isaac Curtis	CIN	15	San Diego St.	843	1.00	Isaac Curtis
1972	Ahmad Rashad	STL	4	Oregon	500	1.00	Ahmad Rashad
1971	J.D. Hill	BUF	4	Arizona St.	216	0.25	Randy Vataha
1970	Ken Burrough	NOR	10	Texas Southern	196	0.28	Ron Shanklin

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