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Adjusted Interceptions: Career Totals

Yesterday, I did a fairly simple analysis to compare interception numbers across eras. Because I covered the methodology in the previous post, I am not going to regurgitate that information here. Instead, I want to just get right into it. When I did the career adjusted sacks post, I went step-by-step in the same manner I did in the single season article. This time, however, I think we can skip past all that and look at the end results.

Career Adjusted Interception Totals

The first table is sorted by the last column, but you can re-sort by any header you like. Using Rod Woodson as an example, here’s how you read the table: Woodson intercepted 71 passes against 8401 attempts at a 0.85% rate. His passing environment modifier (Mod) is worth 142%, and the softened version of that (Soft) is worth 121%. Taking the average of his actual interceptions and interceptions per 500 attempts in order to account for volume gives us the Mid adjustment, which is 98% in Woodson’s case. Applying my homebrewed league strength multiplier (LSM) gives him a 99% adjustment.

If we multiply Woodson’s 71 interceptions by Mod, Mid, and LSM, we get a whopping 97.7 adjusted interceptions for his career. If we dampen it by multiplying those 71 picks by Soft, Mid, and LSM, Woodson’s career adjusted interceptions come to 83.2, good for the highest mark ever. [1]For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.

Using the actual historical average as a baseline appears to be a bit much, going by the numbers it produces. I think having Charles Woodson, Ed Reed, Rod Woodson, a serial rapist, and Aeneas Williams as the top five (by ModTot) is fine; giving Chuck credit for 101 interceptions is a bit much for me. Moving the all time leader in picks, Paul Krause, down to ninth also feels a tad harsh as well. Sure, I think he tends to be overrated by people who look at one number and base their entire evaluation on that single data point, but I also think having such a commanding lead over any modern player should count for something. For this reason, I think the SoftTot column produces results with greater face validity.

The last column gives us a top ten of seven Hall of Famers, one senior candidate who will likely get the necessary votes soon, possibly the best safety of the 1990s who would be in Canton already if he played for Dallas or San Francisco, and a a vile monster who was good at picking off passes and not really much else.

Let’s Be Reasonable

The wacky looking career totals form the table above convinced me to try using a new baseline. I decided to use the last 40 years of football, which incorporates nearly the entire period of open offense football. [2]I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the … Continue reading When I looked at that timeframe, the historical baseline moved from 4.80% to 3.16%. because of that, I have dubbed the new baseline the Austin Percentage. Having a lower baseline means that fewer players will see their totals go up, and only the most recent players will their totals go up significantly.

The table below is sorted by the last column, but you can sort by any of the headings. Using Krause as our example, read the table thus: Krause picked off 81 passes against 5623 attempts at a 1.44% rate. His volume adjustment is worth 117%, and his league strength multiplier is worth 88%. His Austin figure is 60%, which comes to 80% when the effect is halved. [3]Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline. If we apply the Mid, LSM, and Austin modifiers to Krause’s 81 actual interceptions, his total plummets to 49.9, which ranks tenth on the career list. If we replace the Austin modifier with the softened version, Krause’s number falls to just 66.4, which allows him to maintain his place atop the interception mountain. [4]To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce … Continue reading

If you earnestly believe older players relied too much on archaic passing to glean their big interception totals, the Austin column might be for you. Before we find Krause at number ten, only Rod Woodson and Eugene Robinson had any action prior to 1990. Recent ball hawk Richard Sherman is in a fourteen-way tie for 104th place in career interceptions, with 37. However, when Austin 3.16 comes around, Sherman jumps to 18th, which does feel more appropriate for one of the premier turnover artists of recent vintage. In fact, his 8.4 interception boost is the highest number of any player, just beating out the bonuses of 8.3 and 8.1 for fellow playmakers Xavien Howard and Marcus Peters. Wandering mercenary Aqib Talib finds himself pretty high on the career list when looking at the Austin total.

While some recent players saw modest gains, older players saw their totals fall off a cliff with the lower baseline. Emlen Tunnell, a real life hero who picked off 79 passes—but did most of his damage in the 1950s—suffers a reduction of 43.6 from his total. He goes from ranking second on the official list to 54th on the Austin list. That seems a little steep, even to a noted old school player hater like I am. Night Train Lane and Johnny Robinson join Krause and Tunnell as the only other players to lose at least 30 from their totals. Turn-of-the-century players like Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain see almost no change in their career numbers.

I think the last column makes the most sense at first glace. Tunnell, Robinson, and Jim Norton all lose more than 20 from their real numbers, and no one gains more than 3.6. Krause loses 14.6, but because Tunnell lost 22 and his lead over anyone else was huge, he remains in first place. Rod Woodson loses 4.7 from his total, while Charles Woodson and Ed Reed each lose about half a pick, resulting in the three ending pretty clustered, and all close to Krause at the top. While Tunnell has a large reduction, his actual number of interceptions was so high to begin with that he still ranks sixth here.

I am often interested to see where Ken Riley and Dave Brown will fall, relative to one another. Riley has 65 interceptions to Brown’s 62. The Austin adjustment puts Brown ahead, while my preferred adjustment leaves the Bengals legend with a 54.6 to 53.4 lead. Riley never made a Pro Bowl, but he earned first team all pro honors once and second team honors twice. Brown made one Pro Bowl and one all pro second team. Given how close together these two are in terms of actual production, the gap in their public perception is pretty interesting to me. When you consider the fact that Brown was his team’s top corner, while Lemar Parrish was the top corner in Cincinnati until 1977, the issue is further muddled.

I will leave further commentary to the FP faithful, if any remain.

 

References

References
1 For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.
2 I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the likes of Bill Walsh, Don Coryell, and Joe Gibbs.
3 Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline.
4 To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce slightly different results if you copy and paste to work with them yourself.
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Boxscore vs. PFF: Era in Review

Adam Steele is back with more analysis of traditional box score stats versus Pro Football Focus’s big time throw and turnover-worthy play metrics. And we thank him for it.


A couple of weeks ago, I compared TD/INT and BTT/TWP numbers for the 2021 season. Today we’ll be looking at the entire Pro Football Focus era going back to 2006.

Before compiling the data, I hypothesized that TD/INT and BTT/TWP would track in relative lockstep, though perhaps the upward slope of the PFF metrics would be less severe. That turns out to be true for 2006-07 and 2014-21, but oh boy was there some wackiness taking place in between. In the graph below, you’ll see league TD-INT difference in blue and league BTT-TWP difference in red: [continue reading…]

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Jonathan Taylor had a season for the ages. Here are the top 10 yards per carry seasons by a running back with at least 300 carries:

 
Games Rushing
Rk Player Age Draft Tm Lg Year
G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G
1 Jonathan Taylor 22 2-41 IND NFL 2021 17 17 332 1811 5.45 18 106.5
2 Adrian Peterson 27 1-7 MIN NFL 2012 16 16 348 2097 6.03 12 131.1
3 Chris Johnson 24 1-24 TEN NFL 2009 16 16 358 2006 5.60 14 125.4
4 Frank Gore 23 3-65 SFO NFL 2006 16 16 312 1695 5.43 8 105.9
5 Barry Sanders* 29 1-3 DET NFL 1997 16 16 335 2053 6.13 11 128.3
6 Barry Sanders* 26 1-3 DET NFL 1994 16 16 331 1883 5.69 7 117.7
7 Eric Dickerson* 24 1-2 RAM NFL 1984 16 16 379 2105 5.55 14 131.6
8 Walter Payton* 23 1-4 CHI NFL 1977 14 14 339 1852 5.46 14 132.3
9 O.J. Simpson* 28 1-1 BUF NFL 1975 14 14 329 1817 5.52 16 129.8
10 O.J. Simpson* 26 1-1 BUF NFL 1973 14 14 332 2003 6.03 12 143.1

 

He joined Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, and Clinton Portis as the only players to average 100 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per game while having a YPC average of at least 5.4. But perhaps most remarkably, he won the rushing crown by over 500 yards. If that sounds like a lot to you, it’s because it is. The last time a player run the rushing crown by such a large margin was Simpson back in his record-breaking 2,000 yard 1973 season. [continue reading…]

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InIn one of the first posts at Football Perspective, I looked at the leaders in rushing yards over every 10-year period. The question asked in that article was who would ultimately lead the NFL in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021. We can now answer that question.

The answer may surprise you.  I suggested that Trent Richardson was the obvious favorite. Among the names I offered as potential candidates were Mark Ingram, Dion Lewis, Jacquizz Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells, DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Pead, Kendall Hunter, and LaMichael James. I said that we could not rule out college stars like Marcus Lattimore or Michael Dyer or Montee Ball or Malcolm Brown or De’Anthony Thomas.

I said Ray Rice and Ryan Mathews, at 25-year-old in 2012, were probably too old to consider.  That logic applied to 26-year-old stars Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch.  And while they may have been stud running backs, a quartet of 27-year-olds in Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson were clearly too old to consider.

I did not include Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry, as both players were still in high school.  As it turns out, barring injury in 2021, they will both finish in the top 5 of rushing yards from 2012 to 2021 despite both entering the league in 2016.  Ingram, who was a 2nd-year player in 2012, will fall to 6th when Henry and Elliott pass him.  The top 3?  In a big surprise, the 27-year-old Peterson — then still recovering from a torn ACL — will wind up third on the list, and just over 300 yards away from the decade-lead. I named the 24-year-old McCoy one of the top candidates, and he will wind up 2nd on the list.   But the leader in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021? [continue reading…]

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We’ve come to the end of the line. After several posts ranking and reranking, thinking and rethinking, quarterbacks with Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its descendants, this is the one I imagine most readers really want to see. Today, we are looking at measured performance in the regular season and playoffs combined. This is where guys like Y.A. Tittle, who feasted in the regular season but nearly always faltered in the postseason, see their positions fall down the list. Where passers like Jim Plunkett, whose regular season performances left much to be desired but went full tilt bozo in the playoffs, rise up the ranks. As far as the NFL record book is concerned, the playoffs don’t count toward career stats or win-loss totals. While I understand not rewarding players for getting to participate in more games, I can see the argument that it is equally unfair not to reward them for playing well enough to continue the march toward a championship. In order to balance those ideas, I have only counted playoff performances that measured above average by TAY/P.

A quick word on the numbers I’m using. You can find more detail in previous articles in the series, but this should be sufficient to introduce the rookies and refresh the veterans. [continue reading…]

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We’re back at it with quarterback rankings based on Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its abundant offspring. This time, we’re getting into combined regular and postseason stats for single seasons. For the purposes of this article, I will refer to this as a full season. None of the stats are new and have been explained in what I hope is sufficient detail in previous posts. [1]Here are links for the base methodology, the introduction of Z Value and positive value, the methodology and refinement of championship leverage, and a brief explanation of retroactive leverage. Fun … Continue reading As fun as it would be to call this “the greatest quarterback seasons in history!” or something like that, I seem to have a deeply held grudge against page views and web traffic, because I can’t get behind calling it anything of the sort. This is one measure of how much quarterbacks produced in a given full season. I believe it is the best measure when trying to compare across eras in which superior metrics don’t exist, but that’s about as far as I can go on the hubris tip. Anyway, these are my numbers. I hope you like them. [continue reading…]

References

References
1 Here are links for the base methodology, the introduction of Z Value and positive value, the methodology and refinement of championship leverage, and a brief explanation of retroactive leverage. Fun fact: with the addition of a game to the schedule, championship leverage will increase for the 2021 season!
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We have already looked at postseason performance in single games and single seasons. Today, we’re finally having a go at full playoff careers. All of the metrics I am using today have been explained, in great detail, in the previous four posts, so I am not going to belabor the point here. I will, however, remind the reader that Total Adjusted Yards per Play, and its many variants, is just one approach to measuring quarterback performance. It doesn’t account for weather, and it is not adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses (not yet, at least). Moreover, these numbers are based on box score stats and do not include more granular information, like time on the clock, field position, and yards to go on a set of downs. A four yard pass on 1st and 10 is much less valuable than a four yard pass on 3rd and 3, but TAY/P treats them equally. This is by design, because the goal of this metric is to do the best possible job of comparing quarterbacks across eras. I can’t do that with DVOA or EPA/P, because the play by play data just don’t go back far enough. However, when I looked into the correlations of TAY/P with more granular metrics, the r value tended to land between .93 and .94 (even for ESPN’s QBR, with its often wacky use of win probability). This suggests, to me, that most of these issues smooth themselves over in the long run. [continue reading…]

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Yesterday, we looked at playoff performance in individual playoff games, as measured by Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and its copious derivatives). Today, I’m taking the next logical step and looking at performance over a full postseason in any given year. In other words, instead of examining who produced the most in the Super Bowl last year, I am determining who produced the most over the entire 2020 playoffs. By that, I mean who produced the most as measured by this particular set of numbers. They happen to be my preferred numbers for comparing across eras, but your mileage may vary.

For the uninitiated, here is a brief rundown of the metrics used:

Total Adjusted Yards per Play is like ANY/A with rushing included. It is (pass yards -sack yards + rush yards + 20*pass TDs + 20*rush TDs – 45*interceptions – 25*fumbles) / (passes + sacks + rushes). This version of TAY/P doesn’t include first downs, since I only have reliable first down data back to 1991 and want to make the playing field as level as possible when comparing back to 1936. [continue reading…]

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Before the 2021 season starts, I figured I would try to add a little more to the Total Adjusted Yardage information I have been posting. Today, I want to discuss the same stats as before, as well as a few additions, for every postseason game in which a quarterback had at least five action plays. Not all information is complete, as sacks are unavailable prior to 1948. However, I’m working with what I have and not looking back. [1]If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet. Because this is the postseason, it is inherently worth more with regard to both earning a championship and establishing one’s legacy. Therefore, I am going to include championship leverage in the discussion. I don’t have much to say, so let’s get to the numbers. [continue reading…]

References

References
1 If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet.
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Yesterday, we looked at the best (and worst) regular season performances, as measured by Total Adjusted Yards per Play and its many derivatives. Today, it’s time to look into total career values. Keep in mind, these figures don’t include the postseason, where many legends cemented or defined their legacies. We will get to that later, I promise.

Because I apparently hate driving traffic to the site, I will not title this anything to do with the greatest or best quarterback. Instead, I want to be honest about the fact that the results below are simply one measurement of career performance and are not meant to be definitive. I do believe it is the best approach I have seen when it comes to using numbers to compare quarterbacks across eras, but it isn’t perfect. When you see “Johnny Unitas,” what you are really seeing is Unitas, throwing to Raymond Berry, John Mackey, Lenny Moore, Jim Mutscheller, and Jimmy Orr, handing off to Alan Ameche, and standing behind Jim Parker and Bob Vogel, while glancing over at Weeb Ewbank and Don Shula standing on the sidelines. When you see “John Elway,” what you are really seeing is Elway throwing to a ragtag group of receivers, playing behind a ho hum offensive line, and under the tutelage of an unimaginative head coach during his prime, before getting basically the opposite of that late in his career. The average reader at Football Perspective has a good grip on both history and stat and should have little trouble contextualizing the numbers presented today. [continue reading…]

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It has been a while since I published anything specifically relating to my niche homebrewed metric, Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). It has been longer, still, since Chase has posted his latest entry into the corpus of his legendary QBGOAT series. I figured I would kill one bird and dizzy another with one stone. This post is specifically about TAY/P and its derivatives. It is not a treatise on the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Instead, it is a look at how several quarterbacks have fared in a few different variations of a single measurement since 1932. If you want to view it as a GOAT list, you are free to do so, though I would not encourage it. I believe statistics should be used to support your argument rather than serve as the entirety of your argument.

I am not under the delusion that this is the premier metric to use when evaluating quarterbacks. I prefer a holistic approach that includes everything from simple box score stats to convoluted algorithms and subjective grades. I consider EPA/P, DVOA, and Total QBR to be superior measurements. [1]CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at … Continue reading The only problem is that they don’t cover a large enough portion of NFL history to make comparisons. Thus, I continue to use TAY/P because it uses simple box score numbers to create a metric that can compare quarterbacks dating back as far as we have box scores. [2]With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating … Continue reading [continue reading…]

References

References
1 CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at dropbacks. Success rate is usually instructive when looking at how a quarterback leads an offense, but it is defined differently by different entities and, thus, can be difficult to discuss without first defining the term. I prefer to count plays with positive EPA successful, rather than the 40/70/100 division or some variation thereof.
2 With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating back to 1947, but we don’t know the number of sacks themselves prior to 1963. We have precious little sack information for the AAFC. In the NFL, we don’t have fumble data earlier than 1945, and we don’t have fumbles or for the AAFC at all. Prior to 1936, NFL teams didn’t even play the same number of games, which makes serious analysis tricky. And before 1932, we only have touchdowns. This all ignores the fact that yards are awarded a whole numbers, even when only half yards are gained. A touchdown from the one inch line still counts as a one yard run, by rule. On one play, that is a small deal, but over the course of a long career, it can add up (or take away). Though it mostly evens out.
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Previously:

Was this the best game of Tom Brady‘s career? Blaspehmy, you say. Given the year and the opponent, that’s probably true. Against Miami in 2007, Brady had a game where he went 21 for 25 for 354 yards with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions and one sack, putting up a perfect 158.3 passer rating and averaging 17.85 ANY/A. That went down as the 17th highest single-game ANY/A performance since 1970. New England opened that game with touchdowns on each of their first four drives, and five out of their first six.

But this may have been, statistically speaking, Brady’s second most efficient performance ever, at least without any opponent or era adjustments. Against the Lions, Brady completed 22 of 27 passes for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns, with no interceptions and just one sack. One of about 100 games since 1970 where a quarterback averaged at least 15 ANY/A on 20+ passes. The Bucs scored a touchdown on 5 of their first 6 drives, picking up a whopping 405 yards. That was all in the first half, which was more than enough: Brady did not return to the game after halftime, with the Bucs ahead 34-0.

The full week 16 passing stats below.

Baker Mayfield was the worst passer of the week, but there’s a decently large asterisk there: the Browns were down two starters on the offensive line (including the team’s first round pick, left tackle Jedrick Wills), and the team’s top four wide receivers Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and KhaDarel Hodge — in addition to Odell Beckham. So for Mayfield, his top two wide receivers were Marvin Hall and Ja’Marcus Bradley, who both played nearly every snap in their first game ever in a Browns uniform. The results were not very good.

The other notable event of the week was Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs losing the passing efficiency battle and still winning, something that is very rare in Kansas City these days.  But sometimes it does come down to the kicking game, and for Kansas City, Harrison Butker  hit a 53-yarder in the 4th quarter while Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have forced overtime. The Chiefs also had a decided advantage in the rushing game, picking up 9 first downs on 20 carries to Atlanta’s four on 21 attempts.

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The Jets and Eagles both lost division games in week one by the same 27-17 score. But don’t let the final score deceive you: these two games were as different as can be. With 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter of both games, the Jets trailed Buffalo 21-0 while the Eagles led 17-0 over the Washington Football Team. The final scores were not at all indicative of how the game unfolded: the Bills dominated the game start to finish, and only a late Jets touchdown kept the final score respectable. Buffalo finished with a +12.4 Game Script, meaning the Bills led — on average — by 12.4 points over every second of the game. Meanwhile, Washington had a -5.3 Game Script — trailing big early, trailing entering the 4th quarter, and only taking a lead with less than 7 minutes remaining — in the comeback win.

Every year, I calculate the game scripts each week for each NFL game. The Game Script is simply the name I assign to the points differential over every second of the game. Last year, Baltimore had the highest Game Script of week 1, and they repeated that feat on the opening weekend of 2020. There were several notable comebacks in week 1 of the 2020 season, but Washington and Chicago stood out with huge comebacks. The full Game Scripts data below. [continue reading…]

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The Chargers Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2019

Every season, I like to look at each team’s fumble recovery data. The evidence suggests that when the ball is on the ground, teams aren’t better or worse at recovering those fumbles; in other words, the recovery is driven more by randomness than skill.

Let’s begin with looking at fumbles from the perspective of the offensive team. The New Orleans Saints had the fewest fumbles in the league last season, at just 9. Even more impressive, the Saints lost just two fumbles all year! Of course, that luck didn’t hold up in the postseason: New Orleans lost a critical fumble in the team’s opening playoff game, contributing to the surprise loss to the Vikings.

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. No team was “luckier” at recovering their own fumbles than the Saints, but the Broncos actually gained the biggest advantage due to having fumbled much more often. Denver fumbled 21 times last season; that means we would “expect” the Broncos to lose 9.75 of those fumbles. In reality, the team lost just 6 fumbles, meaning Denver recovered 3.75 more fumbles than we would have been expected. Non-QBs for the Broncos fumbled 10 times, but they lost just 2 of those fumbles.

The least fortunate team was the Colts. In 2019, Indianapolis fumbled 18 times, and lost 11 of them! Jacoby Brissett himself lost 5 of 7 fumbles. The table below shows the full fumble data for each offense in 2019: [continue reading…]

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Saints WR Michael Thomas had another dominant season in 2019.  He easily led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,725, and he also was responsible for 38.9% of all Saints receiving yards.  That was the largest percentage of a team’s receiving pie for any one player in 2019, followed by Bronco Courtland Sutton in a distant second place (32.7%), and Bears WR Allen Robinson (32.1%); only three other players (Buffalo’s John Brown, Cleveland’s Jarvis Landry, and Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs) topped 30%.

Regular readers know that I like to calculate something called the Concentration Index for passing offenses: it’s relatively simple to calculate, and it measures how concentrated a team’s passing offense is among a small or large number of players.  To calculate, you simple take each player’s receiving yards, divide that by his team’s total receiving yards, square that result, and then add that number for each player on the offense.  For the Saints, Thomas is at 38.9%; the square of that is 15.2%, so that’s the number we use.  Jared Cook was second on the team with 705 yards, or 15.9% of the team’s receiving yards; the square of that number is 2.5%.  Do this for every player, and the Saints have a total Concentration Index of 21.1%… which is highly concentrated. [continue reading…]

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The 2019 NFC East Looks Historically Bad

We knew the Washington Redskins would be awful this year, and the New York Giants are playing down to poor expectations, too. Both teams are 2-9 through 11 weeks, with one of those wins being a head-to-head Giants victory. The other three wins?

  • The Giants beat Tampa Bay, 32-31, when the Bucs missed a 34-yard field goal at the final gun.
  • The Redskins beat Miami, 17-16, when the Dolphins failed on a 2-point conversion attempt with 6 seconds remaining.
  • Washington beat Detroit (playing backup Jeff Driskel), 19-16, with a game-winning field goal in the final 20 seconds.

The strength of the division was supposed to be Dallas and Philadelphia, but that hasn’t quite worked out, either. The Eagles have been big disappointments, particularly on offense (the team ranks in the bottom 10 in yards, yards per pass attempt, and turnovers): Philadelphia is just 5-6, and 4-5 outside of NFC East play. The Cowboys have played really well against bad teams and rank in 8th in both points per game and points per game allowed; and yet Dallas is just 6-6, with all 6 wins coming against teams with losing records. The Cowboys are 2-6 outside of the division, and have lost as touchdown favorites to both the Jets and Bills.

Altogether, the NFC East is just 9-24 this season in non-division games, easily the worst mark in the NFL. And this is despite the division drawing the AFC East, projected to be the worst division in football (again) this year. In fact, the AFC East has the second-best record among the 8 divisions, but there’s a chicken-or-egg situation going on here: does the AFC East have a good record because it’s good, or because it’s playing the NFC East? The AFC East is 10-4 against the NFC East so far this season. [continue reading…]

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Super Bowl Teams And Passing Efficiency

Over the last two days, I have argued that the value of a top passing offense is lower than it used to be. One natural counter to that might be, hey Chase, haven’t you noticed that Tom Brady and the Patriots tend to always win the Super Bowl?

But that’s not exactly as convincing an argument as you might think. The Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2014, 2016, and 2018. And let’s be super clear about what I’m saying: I am not saying that quarterbacks are not critical, just that they are less critical than they used to be! From 1958 to 1979, the team that won the NFL championship or Super Bowl had a Hall of Fame quarterback in all but two of those seasons.

So yes, Tom Brady may be winning Super Bowls, but that’s hardly evidence that quarterbacks matter more than ever. Especially when you consider that Brady being at his best has borne little relation to whether or not the Patriots win the Super Bowl.

The graph below shows the Patriots passing offense in each season from 2001 to 2018, measured by New England’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average minus league average ANY/A. Yes, New England has had an above-average passing offense each year. The team has won 6 Super Bowls, and those dots are in gold and black. [continue reading…]

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A sight Seahawks fans loved to see.

Doug Baldwin was released by the Seahawks yesterday due to multiple injuries that leaves his career in doubt. It is not expected that he will ever play in the NFL again, and if this truly is the end, it was a special run for a unique player.

Baldwin will be remembered as a Seahawks great, one of the engines of the best era in Seattle’s history.  He was an undrafted free agent out of Stanford, and while he wasn’t quite Rod Smith, Wes Welker, or Drew Pearson, he can make a reasonable case as being one of the top 10 or so wide receivers to get overlooked in the draft.

But when we look back on his career, his statistics won’t tell much of a story.  With just 6,563 career receiving yards, he will get lost with the many of talented wide receivers in pro football history.  Even in the postseason, Baldwin’s 734 yards and 6 touchdowns in 13 games won’t quite stand out. [continue reading…]

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The Vikings Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2018

The Vikings and Falcons were two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL in 2018. They happened to be the two teams with the worst fumble recovery rates last year, which is largely driven by luck. On the other side, the Seahawks and Rams had the best two fumble recovery rates, and were two of the most overachieving teams in football last year.

The table below shows the fumble numbers for each team last year when they were the ones with the football. Seattle and Washington had the best fumble recovery luck in this state of the world (i.e., teams on offense). The Seahawks and Redskins each had 18 fumbles, and only lost 4 fumbles. That’s a 78% offensive fumble recovery rate, the best in the league. The average team recovered 57% of their own fumbles. The final column, therefore, shows the number of own fumbles a team recovered over expectation. For Seattle and Washington, they each recovered 3.8 more fumbles than we would expect, since they had 18 fumbles (we would have expected them to recover 10.2 own fumbles, but actually recovered 14). The full list below: [continue reading…]

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The 1981 San Diego Chargers led the NFL in points and yards, but ranked 26th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed in a 28-team NFL. The Chargers made it to the AFC Championship Game, but had the poor fortune of playing in Cincinnati in a game with -32 degree wind chill. The game wound up being known as the Freezer Bowl, and the Chargers lost 27-7. San Diego might have been better off playing in 2018.

The table below shows where each of the final four teams rank in points, yards, points allowed, and yards allowed, along with each team’s average rank of the two offensive categories and average rank of the two defensive categories. The final column shows the difference between the team’s offensive and defensive ranks, as a way of describing whether a team is offensive-powered or defensive-powered.

Let’s use the Saints as an example. New Orleans ranks 3rd in points for and 8th in yards, while ranking 14th in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed. Therefore, New Orleans has an average offensive rank (3, 8) of 5.5, and an average defensive rank of 14 (14,14). The Saints are considered offensive heavy to the tune of 8.5 slots (14 minus 5.5). And that makes the Saints the least offensive-heavy team remaining in the final four.

The graph below shows the average offensive rank (taking the average of each team’s rank in points and yards) and defensive rank for each of the final four teams in each season since the merger. As you can see, this is a heavily-slanted year for offense: [continue reading…]

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Week 2 (2018) Game Scripts: Los Angeles Domination

Previously:

In week 2, the two best Game Scripts belonged to the two Los Angeles. The Rams blanked the Cardinals 34-0 in the most lopsided game of the week. Arizona was never competitive, and Los Angeles outgained Arizona 432-137, and won the first down battle 24-5. Buffalo didn’t fare much better against the Chargers, falling behind 21-3 after 20 minutes, and trailing by 15+ points for all of the second half until the final minute. This is a good example of how Game Script can tell a more accurate story of a game than the final score: both of these games were blowouts, but the Chargers won by “only” 11 points.

The Titans were the league’s most run-heavy team of the week. Blaine Gabbert threw just 20 passes (he had a sack, and two non-QBs threw a pass for Tennessee), an extremely low number given that Tennessee actually trailed in the 4th quarter of this game. But the Titans were happy to ride Derrick Henry (18 carries) and Dion Lewis (14 carries). Did it work? Not really — neither Gabbert no the running backs were particularly effective. Tennessee won the game on special teams, with a touchdown, winning the time of possession battle, and Houston missing a field goal.

The table below shows the full week 2 Game Scripts data: [continue reading…]

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On Thursday, I posted a methodology to determine which wide receivers played on the most pass-happy teams, and yesterday, I posted another method of examining the same concept. Today, we will use the same approach to measure which receivers played in the most efficient passing offenses.

Efficiency is defined using Relative ANY/A, which is Team ANY/A minus League Average ANY/A. Let’s use Jerry Rice as an example. You will not be surprised to see that he generally played on very efficient passing offenses.  In 1995, Rice had 1,848 receiving yards, which was 8.1% of his career receiving yardage.  The 1995 49ers had a Relative ANY/A of +1.19 which means 8.1% of Rice’s career RANY/A grade is going to have a weight of +1.19.  Do this calculation for every season of his career, and you see that Rice had a career RANY/A of +1.57.

The table below shows the career RANY/A grades for all receivers with at least 5,000 receiving yards:

None of the Hall of Fame receivers have negative RANY/A grades, although Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson will probably change that.

Here’s a look at the 23 receivers with 8,000 career receiving yards and played on below-average passing teams:

You will not be surprised to see Joey Galloway on there at -0.45, at least not if you have been paying attention.

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13 Points > 14 Points, Part III

Over the last two days, I’ve looked at the football oddity that teams that score 13 points had a better winning percentage than teams that scored 14 points.  Today, let’s look at the winning percentage for all points scored.

That’s what the graph below shows: the winning percentage, based on points scored, for all points scored totals from zero to sixty.  To make it a little easier to follow, I’ve colored in red the multiples of 7; as you can see, those numbers (7, 14, 21, and 28) also represent dips in the graph.  What’s interesting is that three field goals is better than two touchdowns across a number of multiples. For example, scoring 9 points is better than scoring 14 points, scoring 16 points is better than 21 points, scoring 23 points is even better than scoring 28 points, and scoring 30 points is better than 35 points.  Take a look:

[continue reading…]

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The Philadelphia Eagles are 10-1 for the fourth time in franchise history. The Eagles have never started a season 11-0, so this season makes the short list for best start in franchise history.

In 1948, behind head coach Greasy Neale, QB Tommy Thompson, and future HOFers RB Steve Van Buren and WR Pete Pihos, and RB Bosh Pritchard, the Eagles went 9-2-1 and won the NFL title.  In 1949, the Eagles brought back Neale, Thompson, Van Buren, Pihos, and Pritchard, and had similar success.  The team lost to the Bears in week 4 but finished the regular season with a sparkling 11-1 record. Philadelphia repeated as champions, defeating the Rams 14-0 in the NFL title game.

In 1980, the Eagles lost to the Cardinals in week 4, but started the season 11-1 before finishing 12-4 and winning the NFC.  The head coach was Dick Vermeil, the QB was Ron Jaworski, and while RB Wilbert Montgomery and WR Harold Carmichael were the stars on offense, Philadelphia sported a dominant defense that ranked 1st in points allowed, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed, net yards per pass attempt allowed, and rushing yards allowed.  Alas, despite being 3-point favorites, the Eagles lost in the Super Bowl to the Raiders.

The 2004 Eagles was the best Philadelphia team of the modern era.  The team began the season 13-1, with the only loss coming to the 15-1 Steelers in Pittsburgh.  Philadelphia clinched the NFC East after week twelve. The Packers were the 2nd best team in the NFC, and the Eagles bludgeoned them in December 47-3 before a pair of garbage time touchdowns. Philadelphia had a great defense, but the offense centered around Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Terrell Owens was unstoppable. In the 14th game, however, Owens broke his fibula and injured his ankle; expected to miss the rest of the year, Owens returned for the Super Bowl, but it was not enough: Philadelphia fell to the Patriots.

If you are an Eagles fan, that’s some pretty good company: all three teams made it to the championship game.

This year’s team seems worthy of being in that discussion. Philadelphia leads the NFL with a 31.9 points per game average, thanks in part to an otherwordly (and unsustainable) red zone success rate of 73.3%.  The Eagles rank 8th in points per game allowed (17.4), and rank in the top 10 in just about every major defensive category.  The Eagles rank 1st in the NFL in points differential, at 14.5 per game.  That’s also the 3rd best in Eagles history through 11 games, behind the ’49 team (+19.6), ’48 team (17.8), and ahead of the 1980 team (+14.3). [continue reading…]

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Let’s get to the week 9 Game scripts! Yes, these are a week late: my apologies, as well, other topics wound up being covered last week.

The biggest stories of week 9 were the blowout wins by Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Rams and Saints followed that up with another pair of blowout wins in week 10, while the Eagles were on bye. But before turning to week 10, let’s review some of the biggest outliers from week nine.

In week 9, the Jets and Panthers were very run-heavy. Lest you forget, the Jets beat the Bills on Thursday night in week 9, and while quarterback Josh McCown did have 5 carries, the running backs combined for 36 carries, while McCown had just 21 attempts. The Jets blew out Buffalo, but consider that the Lions had a similar Game Script and passes on 50% of plays.

Carolina beat Atlanta in a close game where the Panthers trailed for most of the first half. Still, behind Cam Newton and his 9 carries, Carolina wound up passing just 25 times while running 38 times! That’s really run-heavy.

The full Game Scripts data below: [continue reading…]

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The Jaguars Are Maybe Really Good?

In games when they allow 10 or more points, the Jaguars are 0-3 so far this year.

In games when they score fewer than 27 points, the Jaguars are 0-3 so far this year.

If those stats sounds like those of a really bad team one month into an NFL season, well, you’re right. The thing is, Jacksonville has played 7 games this year. Which means maybe they’re a really good team? Because in Jacksonville’s 4 non-losses — things commonly referred to in most parts of the country as wins — the average score has been Jacksonville 32.5, Opponent 5.75. The Jaguars four wins have come by 21+ points, the first team to record four such wins through seven games since 2007.

Entering the 2017 season, the Jaguars had allowed fewer than 10 points in four out of their last 100 games. In 2017, the Jaguars have allowed fewer than 10 points in four out of seven games. The Jaguars had scored 27 or more points in just 13 of their last 100 games entering 2017; so far this year, they’ve scored 27 points in four out of seven games. So yeah, Jacksonville is suddenly a lot better than they used to be.

Jacksonville ranks 2nd in the NFL in points differential at +73. So… are the Jaguars actually good? Well, through seven weeks (but before Monday Night Football), Jacksonville also leads the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt differential, which would have sounded impossible two months ago (especially if you knew Allen Robinson would tear his ACL one catch into the season): [continue reading…]

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In 2014, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown combined to account for 57.9% of the Steelers 6,777 total yards. In 2015, Bell missed most of the year with a knee injury, but in 2016, the duo combined to account for 51.8% of Pittsburgh’s offensive yards, despite the pair combining to miss five games! Through six games in 2017, Brown had 700 yards and Bell had 706 yards, placing both of them in the top five in yards from scrimmage. In fact, since the Steelers had 2,165 yards through six weeks, it means Bell and Brown were responsible for 64.9% of the team’s offensive production.  In week seven, Bell and Brown combined for 257 yards; only a fake punt that netted 44 yards prevented the pair from again picking up two-thirds of the offense (Pittsburgh had 420 yards of offense, so Bell and Brown had 61.1% of the Steelers yards from scrimmage; that number would have been 68.4% without the fake punt).

That made me wonder: which pair of teammates have accounted for the largest share of their offense’s production? The 1978 Bears had a really good player in the backfield who rushed for 992 yards and caught 43 passes for 340 yards.  They also had Walter Payton, who led the NFL for the second straight year with 1,875 yards from scrimmage. His backfield teammate was fullback Roland Harper, who actually finished second on the team to Payton in receptions (WR James Scott did lead the team be a healthy margin in receiving yards).

The ’78 Bears had a mediocre offense, finishing with 4,747 yards from scrimmage (Chicago ranked 27th out of 28 teams in ANY/A, tho the Bears of course were a very good rushing team). But since Payton had 1,875 yards (39.5%) and Harper had 1,332 yards (28.1%), the two combined for over two-thirds of all Chicago yards from scrimmage that season.

The table below shows the top 200 seasons: [continue reading…]

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Back when passes were completed for first downs.

The New York Jets have the second best completion percentage in the NFL through five weeks.  That’s a shocking thing to say for many reasons, including the key fact that 38-year-old Josh McCown has taken every snap at quarterback for the team this season. The Jets are completing 71.6% of their passes, which is truly remarkable for this franchise.

Today I want to compare the 2017 Jets to their predecessors from 45 years earlier. The 1972 Jets were an interesting team.  That year produced a low key entry for the best Joe Namath season: he went 7-6 (missing one game due to injury) but led the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt, Net Yards per Attempt, and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.  Namath was the best QB in the NFL that year, and was named a first-team All-Pro by the Pro Football Writers, the NEA, and Pro Football Weekly. [1]Namath was a 2nd-team choice by the AP, which went with Earl Morrall, 9-0 QB of the undefeated Dolphins, as their first-team choice. But it’s not controversial to say that Namath was the best … Continue reading But Namath completed just 50% of his passes that year, and as a team, the Jets completed just 49.6% of their passes.

It’s easy to look at the 2017 Jets with their 71.6% completion rate — a whopping 22 points higher than the ’72 squad — and conclude that, era adjustments aside, the 2017 Jets passing offense is more efficient. To be clear, era adjustments are enormously important when comparing passers across eras. You almost never want to compare players from different eras without making those adjustments. But today is the rare day where that’s not where I want us to focus. Because as discussed yesterday, completion percentage ignores two key elements of a passing game. [continue reading…]

References

References
1 Namath was a 2nd-team choice by the AP, which went with Earl Morrall, 9-0 QB of the undefeated Dolphins, as their first-team choice. But it’s not controversial to say that Namath was the best QB in the NFL that year, given that he led in ANY/A and won the majority vote for best QB, and also beat out Morrall in the organizations that made All-Conference (Sporting News and UPI) votes rather than All-Pro votes.  Of the five organizations that chose between Namath and Morrall, only one went with Morrall.
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Sometimes, the headlines speak for themselves. After last night — the Chargers lost when the potential game-tying field goal was blocked in the final second — Los Angeles nee San Diego has now lost 18 of its last 23 games decided by 8 or fewer points.

Query Results Table
Poin Poin Poin
Rk Tm Year Date
Time Opp Week G# Day Result OT PF PA PD
1 SDG 2017 2017-09-11 10:20 @ DEN 1 1 Mon L 21-24 21 24 -3
2 SDG 2016 2016-12-24 1:00 @ CLE 16 15 Sat L 17-20 17 20 -3
3 SDG 2016 2016-12-18 4:25 OAK 15 14 Sun L 16-19 16 19 -3
4 SDG 2016 2016-12-04 4:25 TAM 13 12 Sun L 21-28 21 28 -7
5 SDG 2016 2016-11-27 1:00 @ HOU 12 11 Sun W 21-13 21 13 8
6 SDG 2016 2016-11-13 4:05 MIA 10 10 Sun L 24-31 24 31 -7
7 SDG 2016 2016-11-06 4:25 TEN 9 9 Sun W 43-35 43 35 8
8 SDG 2016 2016-10-30 4:05 @ DEN 8 8 Sun L 19-27 19 27 -8
9 SDG 2016 2016-10-23 4:05 @ ATL 7 7 Sun W 33-30 OT 33 30 3
10 SDG 2016 2016-10-13 8:25 DEN 6 6 Thu W 21-13 21 13 8
11 SDG 2016 2016-10-09 4:25 @ OAK 5 5 Sun L 31-34 31 34 -3
12 SDG 2016 2016-10-02 4:25 NOR 4 4 Sun L 34-35 34 35 -1
13 SDG 2016 2016-09-25 4:25 @ IND 3 3 Sun L 22-26 22 26 -4
14 SDG 2016 2016-09-11 1:05 @ KAN 1 1 Sun L 27-33 OT 27 33 -6
15 SDG 2015 2016-01-03 4:25 @ DEN 17 16 Sun L 20-27 20 27 -7
16 SDG 2015 2015-12-24 8:26 @ OAK 16 15 Thu L 20-23 OT 20 23 -3
17 SDG 2015 2015-12-13 1:03 @ KAN 14 13 Sun L 3-10 3 10 -7
18 SDG 2015 2015-11-29 1:03 @ JAX 12 11 Sun W 31-25 31 25 6
19 SDG 2015 2015-11-09 8:30 CHI 9 9 Mon L 19-22 19 22 -3
20 SDG 2015 2015-11-01 1:02 @ BAL 8 8 Sun L 26-29 26 29 -3
21 SDG 2015 2015-10-25 4:05 OAK 7 7 Sun L 29-37 29 37 -8
22 SDG 2015 2015-10-18 4:25 @ GNB 6 6 Sun L 20-27 20 27 -7
23 SDG 2015 2015-10-12 8:30 PIT 5 5 Mon L 20-24 20 24 -4

For his career, Philip Rivers has a 54-26 record in games decided by more than 8 points, and a 43-54 record in games decided by 8 or fewer points. Read differently, Rivers has lost 28 *more* times in close games than in non-close games. That is (for now) tied with Rich Gannon for the largest spread ever. [continue reading…]

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Look Who Is Alone In First Place In The AFC East

The New England Patriots are 0-1. The Dolphins, due to Hurricane Irma, have had their week 1 game postponed to week 11, giving Miami a week 1 bye. And the Jets and Bills square off in Buffalo today. The winner of that game will therefore be alone in first place in the division. Which is pretty unusual in the Tom Brady era.

The last time that Buffalo was alone in first place in the AFC East was after week 2 of the 2014 season, when the Bills were 2-0 and the rest of the division was 1-1. Before that, the last time was week 3 of 2011, and other than a few weeks during 2008 (the year Miami won the division and Matt Cassel started 15 games for New England), the only other times since 2001 were after the first two weeks of the 2003 season.

For the Jets, it’s been even longer. New York was last alone in first place in the division after week 6 of the 2010 season, when the Jets were 5-1 and the Patriots were 4-1 (a week later, both teams were 5-1). Since 2002, the only times the Jets have been alone in first place were weeks 11-13 of the 2008 season, weeks 2 and 3 of the 2009 season, and weeks 5 and 6 of the 2010 season.

Looking ahead to week 2, the Bills travel to Carolina while the Jets head to Oakland. So there’s a very good chance the winner of the Jets/Bills game will be 1-1 next week, and New England (playing in New Orleans) will either be 1-1 or 0-2. That would allow the Dolphins, with a win over the Chargers in the first NFL regular season game at the StubHub Center, to be alone in first place in the division. The last time that happened? Week 2 of the 2010 season, and before that, week 4 of the 2005 season! Yes, there has been exactly one week in the last 11 years where Miami was alone in first place (in 2008, the Dolphins never achieved that status, despite winning the division on a tiebreaker).

The graph below shows how many games above .500 each team in the AFC East after each week of the NFL season for the 2001 through 2016 seasons. The Bills and the Patriots share blue and red as their primary colors, but that’s not a huge issue in this chart. [continue reading…]

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