Checkdowns: Career passing stats in wins and losses

by Chase Stuart on January 5, 2013

in Checkdowns, History, Passing

Is this a thinly-veiled Brady/Manning post?

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each passer:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (which includes a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions) in wins ^[1]Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.
– His number of career losses, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in losses

The table is sorted by AY/A in wins; unsurprisingly, Aaron Rodgers — who is the career leader in that metric — tops this table, too. In fact, Rodgers is also the leader in AY/A in losses. Note that this table includes all games played by the quarterback, not just his starts.

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Rk	Player	Years	Teams	PYD	Win	TD%_W	INT%_W	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Loss	TD%_L	INT%_L	Y/A_L	AY/A_L
1	Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	gnb	19147	49	7.6%	1.3%	8.7	8.3	27	4.3%	2.5%	7.4	6.4
2	Matt Schaub	2004--2011	atl-htx	17936	48	5.3%	1.7%	8.7	8.1	53	3.5%	3.3%	7.2	5.8
3	Tony Romo	2005--2011	dal	21666	60	6.6%	2.1%	8.7	7.9	43	4.3%	3.4%	7	5.5
4	Kurt Warner	1998--2009	ram-nyg-crd	36296	81	6.8%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	57	3.3%	4.4%	7.2	5.3
5	Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	min-mia-rai-det	25133	45	7.1%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	64	3.3%	4%	6.9	5.1
6	Bob Berry	1965--1975	min-atl	9197	32	7.4%	2.3%	8.6	7.7	36	4.2%	7.4%	7.1	3.8
7	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	36450	125	6.8%	1.7%	8.3	7.6	60	2.9%	4.2%	7.2	5.3
8	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	26105	69	6.2%	2.3%	8.5	7.6	39	4%	3.1%	7.3	6
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004--2011	pit	29729	90	5.7%	2.2%	8.4	7.6	38	3.7%	4.9%	7.2	5
10	John Friesz	1990--2000	sdg-was-sea-nwe	8699	19	5%	1%	7.8	7.5	38	2.6%	4%	5.8	4
11	Bart Starr	1960--1971	gnb	22810	99	6.6%	2.9%	8.6	7.5	41	2.4%	5.9%	6.7	4.1
12	Don Meredith	1960--1968	dal	17750	51	8.5%	3.3%	8.8	7.5	50	3.5%	6%	6.2	3.6
13	Drew Brees	2001--2011	sdg-nor	43722	97	6.5%	1.7%	8	7.4	66	3.4%	3.7%	6.7	5.1
14	Ken O'Brien	1984--1993	nyj-phi	25598	56	5.8%	1.7%	8	7.4	72	2.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
15	J.P. Losman	2004--2011	buf-rai-mia	6271	17	5.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.4	28	2.5%	4.4%	6.1	4.1
16	Trent Green	1997--2008	was-ram-kan-mia	28794	59	5.3%	2.1%	8.2	7.3	63	3.6%	3.8%	7.1	5.5
17	Rob Johnson	1995--2003	jax-buf-tam-was-rai	5947	20	4.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.3	25	2.8%	3.6%	6.7	5.1
18	Chad Pennington	2000--2010	nyj-mia	19241	46	5.1%	1.2%	7.7	7.3	49	3.2%	4.1%	6.6	4.9
19	Boomer Esiason	1984--1997	cin-nyj-crd	38520	89	6.6%	2.4%	8.2	7.3	103	3.3%	4.4%	6.5	4.6
20	Neil Lomax	1981--1988	crd	23156	48	6.4%	2.1%	8.1	7.3	59	3%	3.3%	6.6	5.2
21	David Garrard	2002--2010	jax	16489	45	5.3%	1.4%	7.8	7.3	44	2.7%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
22	Matthew Stafford	2009--2011	det	8220	13	8.1%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	17	3.4%	4.4%	6.3	4.4
23	Joe Montana	1979--1994	sfo-kan	46323	140	6.4%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	60	2.7%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
24	Eddie LeBaron	1960--1963	dal	5331	11	12.5%	5.5%	9.4	7.2	31	4.7%	8.7%	7.1	3.3
25	Peyton Manning	1998--2010	clt	60217	150	6.3%	1.9%	8	7.2	77	3.9%	4.1%	6.9	5.2
26	Ed Brown	1960--1965	chi-pit-clt	7723	35	7.7%	5.8%	9.7	7.2	33	2.9%	8.8%	6.5	2.6
27	Wade Wilson	1981--1998	min-atl-nor-dal-rai	18605	66	6.1%	2.6%	8.3	7.2	63	2.4%	5.3%	6.2	3.9
28	Jay Cutler	2006--2011	den-chi	18637	42	6.6%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	38	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.5
29	Josh Freeman	2009--2011	tam	8898	17	5.6%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	24	2.8%	4.6%	6.1	4.1
30	Tom Brady	2000--2011	nwe	45264	140	6.1%	1.6%	7.8	7.2	43	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
31	Matt Moore	2007--2011	car-mia	5137	17	6.2%	1.8%	7.8	7.1	19	2.8%	5%	6.2	4
32	Chris Chandler	1988--2004	clt-tam-crd-ram-oti-atl-chi	29212	72	5.9%	2.6%	8.2	7.1	105	3.1%	4.4%	6.4	4.4
33	Len Dawson	1960--1975	cle-kan	30112	105	8.7%	3.6%	8.6	7.1	64	3.2%	6.3%	6.6	3.8
34	Joe Flacco	2008--2011	rav	15348	49	4.6%	1.2%	7.6	7.1	24	3%	4.4%	5.9	4
35	Trent Edwards	2007--2010	buf-jax	6019	14	4%	1.6%	7.7	7.1	22	2%	4.3%	5.7	3.8
36	Jeff Garcia	1999--2009	sfo-cle-det-phi-tam	26894	63	5.4%	1.3%	7.5	7.1	68	3.4%	3.1%	6.4	5.1
37	Ken Anderson	1971--1986	cin	34159	100	6.2%	2.4%	8	7.1	92	2.7%	4.7%	6.7	4.7
38	Rudy Bukich	1960--1968	pit-chi	7865	30	7.5%	3.5%	8.5	7	35	3.5%	8.6%	6	2.3
39	Troy Aikman	1989--2000	dal	36791	105	4.8%	2.1%	7.9	7	76	2.1%	4.1%	6	4.2
40	Damon Huard	1998--2008	mia-nwe-kan	6349	20	4.9%	1.1%	7.4	7	24	2%	4.3%	5.8	4
41	Jim Everett	1986--1997	ram-nor-sdg	35957	66	5.7%	2.6%	8.1	7	97	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
42	Roger Staubach	1969--1979	dal	25491	106	6.1%	2.5%	8	7	44	3.5%	6.3%	6.7	3.9
43	Bert Jones	1973--1982	clt-ram	18589	47	6.4%	3.1%	8.2	7	58	3.6%	4.6%	6.3	4.3
44	Frank Reich	1985--1998	buf-car-nyj-det	6858	39	8.8%	2.1%	7.7	7	39	3.3%	4.3%	6.3	4.4
45	Jeff Hostetler	1986--1997	nyg-rai-was	17464	70	5.5%	1.9%	7.7	7	40	2.3%	4.1%	6.3	4.5
46	Dan Fouts	1973--1987	sdg	45165	91	5.9%	3.2%	8.3	6.9	95	3.1%	5.5%	7.1	4.7
47	Bill Kenney	1980--1988	kan	17374	37	5.9%	2.5%	8	6.9	49	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
48	Y.A. Tittle	1960--1964	sfo-nyg	11542	40	8.9%	4.3%	8.7	6.9	23	2.5%	6.9%	5.7	2.7
49	Mark Brunell	1994--2011	gnb-jax-was-nor-nyj	33905	99	4.8%	1.8%	7.6	6.9	91	3.2%	2.9%	6.2	4.9
50	Aaron Brooks	2000--2006	nor-rai	20822	41	5.8%	1.6%	7.5	6.9	54	3.3%	4.1%	6.4	4.7

But let’s get to the more interesting question: have any quarterbacks performed better in losses than in wins? The table below shows the same biographical information and then also displays each quarterback’s career statistics (subject to the same caveats) in games, passing yards, Y/A, and AY/A. The next four columns reproduce the information above, showing each quarterback’s Y/A and AY/A in wins and losses. To make it easier to follow, I’ve highlighted the two win columns in light blue and the two loss columns in light red.

The final two columns show the differences in each player’s Y/A and AY/A. It is sorted by the AY/A differential, which is AY/A in losses minus AY/A in wins. If you sort by the passing yards column, you see that most of the game’s best quarterbacks generally averaged about 2 fewer AY/A in losses than in wins. Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde, and Donovan McNabb appear to be exceptions, with smaller differentials, although I don’t know what you can draw from that.

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Rk	Player	Years	Teams	G	PYD	Y/A	AY/A	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Y/A_L	AY/A_L	Y/A Diff	AY/A Diff
1	Hugh Millen	1987--1995	ram-atl-nwe-den	38	6440	6.9	5.7	7.4	5.5	6.8	5.2	-0.6	-0.3
2	Paul McDonald	1980--1984	cle	35	5550	6.9	5.5	6.8	5.3	7	4.7	0.2	-0.6
3	Neil O'Donnell	1991--2003	pit-nyj-cin-oti	130	23399	6.7	6.4	7	6.2	6.3	5.4	-0.7	-0.9
4	Steve Walsh	1989--1999	dal-nor-chi-ram-tam-clt	61	8248	6	4.8	6.2	4.8	5.9	3.9	-0.3	-0.9
5	Kyle Orton	2005--2011	chi-den-kan	71	14532	6.6	6.2	6.8	6.1	6.4	5	-0.5	-1
6	Carson Palmer	2004--2011	cin-rai	109	25659	7.2	6.6	7.6	6.4	6.9	5.3	-0.7	-1.1
7	Jim Miller	1995--2002	pit-chi	38	6410	6.1	5.4	6.6	5.3	5.6	4.3	-0.9	-1.1
8	Rex Grossman	2003--2011	chi-htx-was	57	11015	6.5	5.5	6.8	5.4	6.2	4.3	-0.6	-1.1
9	Scott Brunner	1980--1985	nyg-crd	45	6843	6.2	4.5	6.3	4.7	6.2	3.6	-0.1	-1.1
10	Kent Graham	1992--2001	nyg-crd-pit-was	60	7801	5.8	5.3	6	5.4	5.7	4.3	-0.4	-1.1
11	Charlie Batch	1998--2011	det-pit	77	10610	6.9	6.3	7.5	6.3	6.6	5.1	-0.9	-1.2
12	Chad Henne	2008--2011	mia	34	7114	6.7	5.7	6.6	5.9	6.7	4.7	0.1	-1.2
13	Jeff George	1990--2001	clt-atl-rai-min-was	133	28603	7	6.5	7.7	6.6	6.6	5.4	-1.1	-1.2
14	Mike Tomczak	1985--1999	chi-gnb-cle-pit	138	16963	6.8	5.5	7.1	5.5	6.6	4.2	-0.6	-1.2
15	Erik Kramer	1987--1999	atl-det-chi-sdg	86	16336	6.7	6	7	6	6.5	4.7	-0.5	-1.2
16	Jim McMahon	1982--1996	chi-sdg-phi-min-crd-gnb	126	19260	7.1	6.3	7.4	6	6.4	4.8	-1	-1.2
17	Vinny Testaverde	1987--2007	tam-cle-rav-nyj-dal-nwe-car	240	47553	6.9	5.9	7.3	6	6.7	4.7	-0.6	-1.3
18	Steve Dils	1980--1988	min-ram-atl	47	5816	6	5.1	6.5	5.4	5.7	4.1	-0.8	-1.3
19	Tony Eason	1983--1990	nwe-nyj	66	11703	7.2	6.6	7.7	6.5	6.7	5.2	-1	-1.3
20	Jason Campbell	2006--2011	was-rai	71	14417	6.8	6.4	7.3	6.6	6.4	5.3	-0.8	-1.3
21	Shaun Hill	2005--2011	min-sfo-det	34	6209	6.6	6.3	7.1	6.4	6.3	5.1	-0.8	-1.3
22	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989--1999	sdg-atl-oti-kan-nor	77	10760	6.3	5.3	6.8	5.7	6.1	4.4	-0.6	-1.3
23	David Carr	2002--2010	htx-car-nyg-sfo	93	14433	6.4	5.5	7	6.1	6.2	4.7	-0.8	-1.4
24	Marc Bulger	2002--2009	ram	99	23758	7.2	6.7	7.8	6.8	6.8	5.4	-1	-1.4
25	Rodney Peete	1989--2004	det-dal-phi-was-car	103	16636	7	5.9	7.5	6	6.5	4.6	-1	-1.4
26	Gary Cuozzo	1963--1972	clt-nor-min-crd	82	7688	6.2	4.8	6.5	4.9	6	3.5	-0.5	-1.4
27	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	172	33068	6.8	6.3	7.2	6.4	6.4	4.9	-0.8	-1.5
28	Mark Rypien	1988--2001	was-cle-ram-phi-clt	105	20249	7.1	6.4	7.7	6.4	6.5	4.9	-1.3	-1.5
29	Brian Griese	1998--2008	den-mia-tam-chi	93	19440	7	6.2	7.4	6.2	6.6	4.7	-0.8	-1.5
30	Bernie Kosar	1985--1996	cle-dal-mia	134	25254	6.9	6.5	7.4	6.6	6.6	5.1	-0.8	-1.5
31	Steve Fuller	1979--1986	kan-chi	62	7454	6.7	5.6	7.5	6	6.2	4.5	-1.3	-1.6
32	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	108	26105	8	7.8	8.5	7.6	7.3	6	-1.2	-1.6
33	Vince Young	2006--2011	oti-phi	62	9102	6.8	5.8	7.1	5.9	6.5	4.3	-0.7	-1.6
34	Dan Marino	1983--1999	mia	260	65871	7.3	6.9	7.7	6.7	6.8	5.1	-0.9	-1.6
35	Joey Harrington	2002--2007	det-mia-atl	82	14693	5.8	4.9	6.4	5.5	5.5	3.9	-0.8	-1.6
36	Ron Jaworski	1974--1989	ram-phi-mia-kan	169	29859	6.8	5.9	7.2	6	6.5	4.4	-0.7	-1.6
37	Steve Bono	1985--1999	min-pit-sfo-kan-gnb-ram-car	75	10576	6.1	5.7	6.4	5.7	5.7	4.1	-0.7	-1.6
38	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	181	40859	6.9	6.7	7.4	6.7	6.1	5	-1.3	-1.6
39	Danny White	1976--1988	dal	183	24243	7.3	6.3	7.7	6	6.7	4.4	-1.1	-1.7
40	Doug Williams	1978--1989	tam-was	95	18108	6.8	5.8	7.2	6	6.5	4.4	-0.7	-1.7
41	Kelly Holcomb	1995--2007	tam-clt-cle-buf-min	38	6453	6.8	5.8	7.7	6.2	6.5	4.6	-1.2	-1.7
42	Ty Detmer	1993--2001	gnb-phi-sfo-cle-det	42	6499	6.7	5.7	7.1	6.1	6.5	4.4	-0.7	-1.7
43	Matt Hasselbeck	1999--2011	gnb-sea-oti	171	35891	6.9	6.4	7.5	6.5	6.3	4.8	-1.2	-1.7
44	Eli Manning	2004--2011	nyg	131	30095	7	6.5	7.3	6.4	6.7	4.7	-0.7	-1.7
45	Dave Wilson	1981--1988	nor	53	7007	6.7	4.9	7.8	5.5	6.2	3.8	-1.6	-1.7
46	Warren Moon	1984--2000	oti-min-sea-kan	218	52195	7.2	6.5	7.7	6.6	6.8	4.9	-0.9	-1.7
47	Brad Johnson	1994--2008	min-was-tam-dal	172	30457	6.7	6.1	7.1	6.2	6.2	4.5	-0.9	-1.7
48	Mike Livingston	1968--1979	kan	90	11295	6.5	5	6.8	5.5	6.2	3.7	-0.6	-1.7
49	Sam Bradford	2010--2011	ram	26	5676	6	5.5	6.9	6.3	5.6	4.5	-1.3	-1.8
50	Jeff Blake	1992--2005	nyj-cin-nor-rav-crd-phi-chi	119	21711	6.7	6.2	7.4	6.5	6.3	4.7	-1.1	-1.8

In the absence of any other narrative, we can always just talk about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Dan Marino and Joe Montana. Brady and Manning have nearly identical Y/A and AY/A averages in wins, but Manning’s play was better in losses. When it comes to Marino and Montana, the opposite effect occurs. Marino and Montana had nearly the same AY/A in losses — Marino was at 5.1, Montana at 4.9 — but in wins, Montana was at 7.2 AY/A while Marino was only at 6.7 AY/A.

References[+]

References
↑1	Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.

Tagged as: Aaron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, quarterbacks, Tom Brady

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