Checkdowns: College Football QB ANY/A, 2014

by Chase Stuart on November 21, 2014

in College

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is the basic measure I use to measure quarterback performance. ANY/A, of course, is calculated as follows:

(Passing Yards + 20*PassingTDs – 45*INTs – SackYardsLost) / (Sacks + Attempts)

Finding college football sack data is notoriously challenging, but ESPN does at least list sack numbers (but not sack yardage lost) for quarterback. But if we assume each quarterback loses 6.7 yards per sack ^[1]Based on the results here., then we can calculated estimated ANY/A. And we can also calculate estimated value.

This year in college football, the average ANY/A is 6.13. Let’s use Oregon’s Marcus Mariota as an example. The Heisman frontrunner has thrown for 2,780 yards and 29 touchdowns on 277 attempts, while being sacked 23 times and throwing just two interceptions. As a result, Mariota has an ANY/A of 10.39. That’s 4.26 ANY/A above average, and over the course of Mariota’s 300 dropbacks, that means he’s provided 1,278 of Adjusted Net Yards of value over average. As it turns out, that’s the most in college football. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, and it lists the 172 quarterbacks this season with at least 50 pass attempts:

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SACK	ANY/A	VALUE
1	Marcus Mariota	ORE	186	277	2780	29	2	23	10.39	1278
2	Garrett Grayson	CSU	204	311	3024	26	5	20	9.62	1157
3	Cody Kessler	USC	238	339	2919	29	3	22	8.91	1005
4	Jared Goff	CAL	262	419	3398	30	4	23	8.29	956
5	Brandon Doughty	WKU	284	425	3507	31	8	17	8.26	945
6	Rakeem Cato	MRSH	168	284	2613	26	7	11	9.3	937
7	Zach Terrell	WMU	193	277	2668	19	6	13	9.28	914
8	Blake Sims	ALA	170	276	2454	18	3	7	9.3	898
9	Connor Cook	MSU	159	274	2466	19	5	8	9.1	839
10	Bryce Petty	BAY	164	283	2421	21	3	13	8.85	805
11	J.T. Barrett	OSU	165	258	2356	29	8	20	8.78	739
12	Gunner Kiel	CIN	168	279	2485	24	10	7	8.63	716
13	Trevone Boykin	TCU	229	386	3021	24	5	17	7.85	693
14	Kenny Hill	TA&M	214	321	2649	23	8	15	7.88	590
15	Shane Carden	ECU	263	418	3216	20	5	19	7.47	586
16	Brad Kaaya	MIA	160	267	2403	22	10	14	8.18	577
17	Jake Waters	KSU	188	295	2569	14	5	20	7.9	560
18	Kale Pearson	AFA	86	140	1342	13	2	9	9.74	539
19	Connor Halliday	WSU	354	526	3873	32	11	20	7.11	538
20	Deshaun Watson	CLEM	79	118	1197	12	2	8	10.27	521
21	Dak Prescott	MSST	173	287	2521	20	10	15	7.85	520
22	Bo Wallace	MISS	190	297	2554	22	8	23	7.75	519
23	Justin Thomas	GT	75	145	1396	15	4	9	9.45	512
24	Everett Golson	ND	227	374	3044	27	12	21	7.35	483
25	Brett Hundley	UCLA	220	305	2547	17	4	29	7.52	466
26	Drew Hare	NIU	141	230	1720	14	1	7	8.05	456
27	Jameis Winston	FSU	221	336	2844	18	12	14	7.34	426
28	Gary Nova	RUTG	139	239	2212	16	10	16	7.74	412
29	Seth Russell	BAY	40	68	722	7	1	0	12.01	400
30	Blake Frohnapfel	UMASS	241	437	3345	23	10	22	6.99	395
31	Wes Lunt	ILL	141	216	1671	14	3	10	7.74	364
32	Nick Marshall	AUB	125	210	1688	14	5	8	7.75	354
33	Grant Hedrick	BSU	230	322	2795	17	13	18	7.15	346
34	Dylan Thompson	SC	217	361	2794	22	10	18	7.03	341
35	Taylor Heinicke	ODU	228	367	2892	25	11	24	7	340
36	Driphus Jackson	RICE	141	245	1960	15	4	19	7.4	335
37	Cody Sokol	LT	200	337	2513	24	10	14	6.98	298
38	Hutson Mason	UGA	150	222	1638	16	3	13	7.39	296
39	Clint Trickett	WVU	281	419	3285	18	10	26	6.79	294
40	Mike Bercovici	ASU	101	164	1322	10	3	7	7.84	292
41	Trevor Knight	OKLA	162	279	2197	14	9	6	7.13	286
42	Cooper Rush	CMU	191	293	2416	18	9	23	7.02	281
43	Marquise Williams	UNC	234	369	2773	20	8	22	6.82	270
44	Davis Webb	TTU	211	345	2539	24	13	4	6.9	269
45	Anu Solomon	ARIZ	256	441	3058	25	7	22	6.69	259
46	Joe Licata	BUFF	204	318	2392	25	11	15	6.9	256
47	Taylor Lamb	APP	157	253	1963	13	7	8	7.1	255
48	Will Gardner	LOU	127	221	1669	12	3	13	7.21	253
49	Paxton Lynch	MEM	195	303	2299	12	6	13	6.9	246
50	Darell Garretson	USU	91	135	1140	8	3	9	7.67	222
51	Joshua Dobbs	TENN	61	99	790	7	2	2	8.18	208
52	Luke Falk	WSU	84	120	903	8	1	7	7.65	193
53	Treon Harris	FLA	33	56	565	4	1	5	9.29	193
54	Jaquez Johnson	FAU	152	263	1778	15	3	12	6.77	178
55	Travis Wilson	UTAH	132	221	1558	13	2	16	6.84	169
56	Cyler Miles	WASH	151	229	1627	12	2	17	6.76	156
57	Brandon Allen	ARK	160	276	1905	15	5	11	6.64	148
58	Michael Cummings	KU	113	195	1492	7	3	13	6.78	135
59	Phillip Ely	TOL	41	68	541	4	1	2	8.04	134
60	Taylor Kelly	ASU	113	197	1498	14	5	17	6.72	128
61	Kent Myers	USU	43	57	531	4	1	7	8.11	127
62	Nick Arbuckle	GAST	214	354	2812	19	12	28	6.45	124
63	Cody Clements	UAB	154	228	1910	11	8	20	6.6	116
64	Kevin Ellison	GASO	63	109	865	5	3	4	7.11	111
65	Jake Rudock	IOWA	172	269	1863	12	4	13	6.51	108
66	Logan Woodside	TOL	151	252	1773	14	7	7	6.53	104
67	Tommy Armstrong Jr.	NEB	128	248	1889	14	9	12	6.48	90
68	Jacoby Brissett	NCST	197	333	2278	19	5	24	6.36	85
69	Chad Voytik	PITT	136	220	1688	12	6	18	6.46	79
70	Kevin Hogan	STAN	187	293	2155	15	7	21	6.37	75
71	Lamar Jordan	UNM	50	94	699	5	2	5	6.82	69
72	Andrew Hendrix	M-OH	207	420	3062	22	8	39	6.28	68
73	Caleb Rowe	MD	34	54	489	5	4	1	7.31	65
74	Justin Holman	UCF	145	255	2009	16	10	20	6.35	60
75	Tyler Jones	TXST	220	344	2403	20	7	26	6.25	47
76	C.J. Beathard	IOWA	39	69	500	3	1	4	6.69	41
77	Chad Chalich	IDHO	36	64	491	2	2	1	6.68	36
78	Derrius Vick	OHIO	84	142	1035	6	3	9	6.36	34
79	Austin Grammer	MTU	192	295	2298	15	10	24	6.23	33
80	Munchie Legaux	CIN	41	62	406	3	1	2	6.37	15
81	Matt Johns	UVA	86	156	1044	8	5	1	6.19	10
82	Nate Sudfeld	IND	101	167	1151	6	3	8	6.19	10
83	Patrick Mahomes	TTU	52	94	621	6	2	6	6.11	-2
84	Fredi Knighten	ARST	231	380	2578	17	5	29	6.11	-7
85	Johnny McCrary	VAN	61	114	806	9	6	2	6.06	-8
86	Taysom Hill	BYU	88	132	975	7	3	14	6.07	-8
87	Blake Jurich	SJSU	52	81	629	5	4	5	5.99	-11
88	Dontreal Pruitt	TROY	44	77	533	1	1	4	5.94	-15
89	Kyle Allen	TA&M	79	130	884	11	5	8	5.98	-20
90	Dajon Williams	UNT	46	77	607	7	4	9	5.89	-20
91	Sean Mannion	ORST	233	368	2688	12	7	30	6.06	-27
92	Christian Stewart	BYU	140	244	1633	13	5	17	5.95	-45
93	Jameill Showers	UTEP	122	219	1417	11	5	9	5.93	-45
94	Reggie Bonnafon	LOU	51	92	662	4	1	15	5.57	-59
95	Joel Stave	WIS	57	104	688	6	4	5	5.45	-73
96	Joe Gray	SJSU	201	317	2215	10	9	11	5.9	-73
97	Keenan Reynolds	NAVY	42	92	707	5	3	15	5.34	-84
98	Brandon Silvers	TROY	162	237	1560	8	3	17	5.79	-85
99	Mitch Leidner	MINN	88	171	1310	10	8	15	5.64	-90
100	Ozzie Mann	BALL	92	161	947	6	2	7	5.54	-99
101	Terrel Hunt	SYR	83	145	983	1	4	3	5.43	-104
102	Grant Rohach	ISU	27	54	283	2	1	4	4.33	-104
103	Mike White	USF	90	182	1288	8	7	10	5.55	-110
104	Steven Bench	USF	36	76	466	2	2	5	4.72	-114
105	Mitch Trubisky	UNC	29	56	314	3	3	1	4.08	-117
106	Angel Santiago	ARMY	33	64	440	1	1	11	4.55	-118
107	Tyrone Swoopes	TEX	191	325	2152	12	6	20	5.76	-126
108	Nick Mullens	USM	194	323	2207	11	9	14	5.72	-137
109	Patrick Towles	UK	211	363	2542	14	7	33	5.77	-141
110	Greg Ward Jr.	HOU	102	145	1005	6	5	12	5.22	-142
111	Brandon Bridge	USA	119	231	1457	10	4	17	5.5	-156
112	Anthony Jennings	LSU	92	192	1353	9	6	19	5.38	-157
113	Terrance Broadway	ULL	155	259	1771	12	9	14	5.54	-161
114	Cody Fajardo	NEV	209	339	2202	14	9	13	5.65	-167
115	Brandon Connette	FRES	29	53	299	2	3	4	3.11	-172
116	Kendal Thompson	UTAH	32	52	324	2	2	10	3.34	-173
117	Dane Evans	TLSA	213	390	2645	20	12	23	5.69	-180
118	Tanner McEvoy	WIS	65	112	709	5	6	3	4.51	-186
119	Jack Milas	BALL	104	192	1133	7	5	5	5.15	-193
120	Colby Kirkegaard	WYO	174	301	2214	11	8	33	5.55	-194
121	Chandler Whitmer	CONN	121	214	1471	11	6	25	5.24	-211
122	Stephen Rivers	VAN	25	63	334	0	3	2	2.86	-213
123	Andrew McNulty	UNT	78	140	909	4	5	10	4.65	-222
124	Nick Montana	TULN	42	72	300	1	2	1	3.06	-224
125	JD Sprague	OHIO	94	194	1183	3	3	12	4.99	-235
126	Reginald Bell Jr.	EMU	61	112	769	4	4	17	4.3	-235
127	Sefo Liufau	COLO	298	453	2842	26	14	15	5.62	-236
128	Quinn Kaehler	SDSU	137	235	1656	8	9	17	5.15	-247
129	Alex McGough	FIU	127	249	1624	14	7	25	5.19	-257
130	Sam B. Richardson	ISU	188	323	1938	14	6	18	5.36	-262
131	Josh Greer	UNT	24	50	171	0	2	4	1	-277
132	Maty Mauk	MIZZ	156	294	1784	19	10	15	5.22	-280
133	James Knapke	BGSU	225	396	2514	12	10	13	5.42	-289
134	Matt Davis	SMU	55	89	521	2	3	14	3.23	-299
135	Anthony Boone	DUKE	221	391	2232	16	7	11	5.38	-300
136	Cole Weeks	USM	59	112	761	2	5	15	3.74	-303
137	Austin Appleby	PUR	99	189	1075	8	6	9	4.57	-309
138	Tyler Murphy	BC	101	184	1293	9	10	16	4.58	-310
139	Reilly O'Toole	ILL	63	114	745	5	6	15	3.68	-316
140	Chuckie Keeton	USU	51	92	426	2	4	3	2.8	-316
141	Tommy Woodson	AKR	76	143	806	5	6	6	4	-317
142	Greyson Lambert	UVA	122	204	1275	8	9	9	4.55	-335
143	Tucker Carter	UTSA	78	138	806	2	5	10	3.74	-353
144	Daxx Garman	OKST	152	277	2041	12	12	31	4.98	-354
145	Wade Freebeck	VAN	34	72	376	1	5	7	1.57	-360
146	Kyle Pohl	AKR	191	340	1998	9	6	15	5.09	-368
147	Cole Stoudt	CLEM	145	235	1444	5	8	11	4.51	-397
148	Brian Burrell	FRES	168	289	1769	16	10	22	4.8	-414
149	AJ Long	SYR	72	128	727	4	6	13	3.19	-414
150	Danny Etling	PUR	89	162	800	6	5	11	3.59	-439
151	Montell Cozart	KU	64	128	701	5	7	11	2.97	-439
152	Justin Worley	TENN	157	252	1579	12	8	29	4.5	-457
153	Rob Bolden	EMU	41	95	399	4	5	11	1.7	-469
154	Zander Diamont	IND	38	81	282	1	3	11	1.01	-470
155	Michael Brewer	VT	218	356	2237	15	12	23	4.86	-479
156	Austin Robinson	UTSA	73	126	585	1	4	11	2.56	-488
157	John O'Korn	HOU	89	172	944	6	8	11	3.44	-491
158	Pete Thomas	ULM	238	406	2524	11	5	41	5.02	-495
159	Tyler Rogers	NMSU	225	361	2363	15	20	4	4.76	-500
160	Devin Gardner	MICH	139	227	1557	8	13	19	4.08	-503
161	Blake Decker	UNLV	200	349	2528	10	15	33	4.8	-509
162	C.J. Brown	MD	147	279	1723	11	9	27	4.43	-518
163	Colin Reardon	KENT	200	355	2168	12	15	10	4.56	-570
164	Tanner Lee	TULN	144	260	1552	12	13	15	4.02	-579
165	P.J. Walker	TEM	164	308	1866	12	14	16	4.22	-616
166	Jeff Driskel	FLA	97	184	928	6	10	9	2.79	-645
167	Garrett Krstich	SMU	96	174	849	2	6	16	2.69	-652
168	Ikaika Woolsey	HAW	173	354	2060	9	10	29	4.17	-751
169	Matt Linehan	IDHO	200	341	2319	10	17	37	3.98	-810
170	Trevor Siemian	NW	221	380	2121	6	10	30	3.88	-922
171	Christian Hackenberg	PSU	207	373	2318	7	14	37	3.85	-932
172	John Wolford	WAKE	172	299	1626	9	13	34	2.98	-1047

It’s important to remember that much more so than in the NFL, strength of schedule is a significant variable in all college football analysis. That is completely ignored here. In addition, coaching and scheme matter more, too, and that is not considered in this analysis. This is simply a quick and dirty look at the numbers.

Jameis Winston checks in only at #27. This is not because ANY/A is a bad way to measure quarterback play — in fact, Winston ranked 2nd in the SOS-adjusted version of this last year, while averaging 10.2 ANY/A. He’s had a down year, at least statistically.

Down at the very bottom of the list, in second to last place? Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg. It’s been a rough year for the Nittany Lions offense, as the offensive line is in shambles. Hackenberg, considered to be a possible first round pick in 2016, will need to put together a much better season statistically in 2015 if he wants to keep that dream alive.

References[+]

References
↑1	Based on the results here.

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