Checkdowns: College Football QB ANY/A, 2014

by Chase Stuart on November 21, 2014

in College

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is the basic measure I use to measure quarterback performance. ANY/A, of course, is calculated as follows:

(Passing Yards + 20*PassingTDs – 45*INTs – SackYardsLost) / (Sacks + Attempts)

Finding college football sack data is notoriously challenging, but ESPN does at least list sack numbers (but not sack yardage lost) for quarterback. But if we assume each quarterback loses 6.7 yards per sack ^[1]Based on the results here., then we can calculated estimated ANY/A. And we can also calculate estimated value.

This year in college football, the average ANY/A is 6.13. Let’s use Oregon’s Marcus Mariota as an example. The Heisman frontrunner has thrown for 2,780 yards and 29 touchdowns on 277 attempts, while being sacked 23 times and throwing just two interceptions. As a result, Mariota has an ANY/A of 10.39. That’s 4.26 ANY/A above average, and over the course of Mariota’s 300 dropbacks, that means he’s provided 1,278 of Adjusted Net Yards of value over average. As it turns out, that’s the most in college football. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, and it lists the 172 quarterbacks this season with at least 50 pass attempts:

entries per page

Search:

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SACK	ANY/A	VALUE
1	Marcus Mariota	ORE	186	277	2780	29	2	23	10.39	1278
2	Garrett Grayson	CSU	204	311	3024	26	5	20	9.62	1157
3	Cody Kessler	USC	238	339	2919	29	3	22	8.91	1005
4	Jared Goff	CAL	262	419	3398	30	4	23	8.29	956
5	Brandon Doughty	WKU	284	425	3507	31	8	17	8.26	945
6	Rakeem Cato	MRSH	168	284	2613	26	7	11	9.3	937
7	Zach Terrell	WMU	193	277	2668	19	6	13	9.28	914
8	Blake Sims	ALA	170	276	2454	18	3	7	9.3	898
9	Connor Cook	MSU	159	274	2466	19	5	8	9.1	839
10	Bryce Petty	BAY	164	283	2421	21	3	13	8.85	805
11	J.T. Barrett	OSU	165	258	2356	29	8	20	8.78	739
12	Gunner Kiel	CIN	168	279	2485	24	10	7	8.63	716
13	Trevone Boykin	TCU	229	386	3021	24	5	17	7.85	693
14	Kenny Hill	TA&M	214	321	2649	23	8	15	7.88	590
15	Shane Carden	ECU	263	418	3216	20	5	19	7.47	586
16	Brad Kaaya	MIA	160	267	2403	22	10	14	8.18	577
17	Jake Waters	KSU	188	295	2569	14	5	20	7.9	560
18	Kale Pearson	AFA	86	140	1342	13	2	9	9.74	539
19	Connor Halliday	WSU	354	526	3873	32	11	20	7.11	538
20	Deshaun Watson	CLEM	79	118	1197	12	2	8	10.27	521
21	Dak Prescott	MSST	173	287	2521	20	10	15	7.85	520
22	Bo Wallace	MISS	190	297	2554	22	8	23	7.75	519
23	Justin Thomas	GT	75	145	1396	15	4	9	9.45	512
24	Everett Golson	ND	227	374	3044	27	12	21	7.35	483
25	Brett Hundley	UCLA	220	305	2547	17	4	29	7.52	466

Showing 1 to 25 of 172 entries

It’s important to remember that much more so than in the NFL, strength of schedule is a significant variable in all college football analysis. That is completely ignored here. In addition, coaching and scheme matter more, too, and that is not considered in this analysis. This is simply a quick and dirty look at the numbers.

Jameis Winston checks in only at #27. This is not because ANY/A is a bad way to measure quarterback play — in fact, Winston ranked 2nd in the SOS-adjusted version of this last year, while averaging 10.2 ANY/A. He’s had a down year, at least statistically.

Down at the very bottom of the list, in second to last place? Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg. It’s been a rough year for the Nittany Lions offense, as the offensive line is in shambles. Hackenberg, considered to be a possible first round pick in 2016, will need to put together a much better season statistically in 2015 if he wants to keep that dream alive.

References[+]

References
↑1	Based on the results here.

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