Fast and Faster.
In May, I took a stab at discussing tempo in the NFL, and I presented a couple of lists that measured the number of plays run per second of possession in the NFL. Today, I want to revisit the questions of tempo and pace using more precise measurements. Let’s start with some league-wide data. The table below shows the average number of seconds between snaps for NFL teams last season. I’ve excluded a number of plays from this sample, including all plays at the start of a quarter, all overtime plays, plays after a changes of possession, and plays in the final three minutes of the first half or five minutes of the second half (where teams are less likely to operate at their normal pace).
There’s a big spike around the five second mark, as incomplete passes generally run three-to-five seconds off the clock. Then we see a steady build up towards the 40 second mark. This data contains errors — of the many play-by-play datasets I’ve seen, they all contain lots of errors –but the sample size is enormous, so I believe this graph provides an accurate representation of the general pace in the NFL. As you can see, there are a number of snaps that are over 45 seconds after the previous snap: those represent plays that come after long first downs, where it takes the referees a few extra seconds to move the chains and restart the play clock. [1]There are also times that snaps take over 60 seconds of clock time (notably after a presnap penalty by the offense), but I’ve eliminated them from the dataset. Why? I believe some are errors, … Continue reading
Now that we have a general sense of tempo, the next step is to examine the average number of seconds between snaps for all teams last season. In the process, I’ve excluded all the plays identified above along with all plays that followed incomplete passes. Note that “time between snaps” doesn’t mean time between plays: the time between each snap includes however many seconds the previous play took to run. I’ve sorted the table by median time between plays, which should minimize concerns about a few errors in the database. Unsurprisingly, no offense operated as quickly as Tom Brady’s offense in New England. Number two on the list is Peyton Manning’s Broncos.
With that as background, here are the numbers on Kelly’s Eagles in the preseason: 27.8 seconds (average) and 27 seconds (median). [2]As it turns out, the team ran a faster pace under both Nick Foles and Matt Barkley. I’m not sure what that means. But let’s get more granular and examine each of the drives operated by Vick in the preseason, excluding those in the final three minutes of the first half. Let’s start with the first game against the Patriots. Vick had two first-quarter drives, and while Philadelphia didn’t operate at a lightning fast pace, the Eagles weren’t taking their time, either. In the column on the right, I’ve listed the number of seconds between snaps.
We start to see the hurry-up offense after the team’s first first down: the Eagles snapped the ball, threw a 22-yard deep pass, and then snapped the ball again 28 seconds later. After a four-yard run, Vick snapped it again 25 seconds later, and hit DeSean Jackson for a 47-yard touchdown. Here’s what Chris Brown had to say about that play:
After the game, Vick talked about how the Patriots had been trying to disguise their coverages, but the quick tempo helped force the Patriots safeties to show that Jackson would be single-covered.
Foles started the next week against Carolina, so Vick’s work was exclusively limited to one drive in the second quarter. [3]I’ve left out the Eagles three-minute drive here based on principle, but I should mention that Vick did run an up-tempo, 74-yard drive for a touchdown that ran 7 plays in 2:07 (although that … Continue reading On the drive, the Eagles operated at a fast pace until facing 3rd-and-7. I’ve put an asterisk next to the two plays that followed penalties, as the pace wasn’t as fast as those numbers appeared (the penalties stopped the clock). After converting on third down to Jason Avant, the team huddled on only one of their next three plays, but did not operate at a breakneck pace.
The most work Vick saw this preseason was against the Jaguars. He played the first three quarters, giving us seven drives to analyze. The first drive was Kelly and Vick at their fastest: Philadelphia snapped the ball, completed a 20-yard deep pass to Avant, and snapped the ball again, all within 20 seconds. The next snap came after a sack, but still was only 25 seconds after the prior snap. The sack killed the drive, so we only have two plays to measure here.
The second drive also gives us just two plays to review, thanks to an incomplete pass and a holding penalty.
The third drive began at a slow pace, perhaps because the Eagles gained possession inside their own 20. Philadelphia moved in a methodical-no-huddle until crossing midfield; then, the Eagles hit the gas pedal. With 1:57 left in the quarter, Vick dropped back and fired a long pass to Jackson; the team would run two more plays before the clock would dip under one minute.
The fourth drive started just a couple of plays later after Connor Barwin intercepted a Chad Henne pass. This was a two-play drive inside the red zone, so there isn’t much to discuss.
The fifth drive began deep inside Eagles territory. Philadelphia ran a slow no huddle, but after a 26-yard completion to Brent Celek, picked up the pace. The next play was ran 35 seconds after that long play (which is a quick pace given that the next snap was 26 yards away), and the following snap came just 28 seconds later. The next snap was just nine seconds later, although that’s because Vick ran out of bounds [4]As was pointed out to me via e-mail, when a player goes out of bounds with 2+ minutes in the first half or 5+ minutes in the second half, the clock stops and then starts on the spot. So in this … Continue reading on the previous play. The ensuing snap was also in hurry-up style, but it was an interception that ended the drive.
Drive number six began just seconds later, as Jacksonville’s Jordan Todman ran 63 yards for a touchdown on the Jaguars first play. Again, the Eagles put the pedal to the medal, with three of four relevant snap pairs coming in under 28 seconds.
The last drive came in the second half. The six plays saw an average of 26.2 seconds between snaps.
Conclusion
The Patriots ran nearly 1200 plays while operating the fastest offense in the NFL last year, but we can’t forget that they have a future Hall of Fame quarterback running the show. Part of running so many plays is having an efficient quarterback who can convert on third downs, traits that Michael Vick has never consistently displayed. Other factors involved in running a lot of plays are bad — Detroit had 1,160 plays last year, the second most in the league, despite an average pace in normal situations. But the Lions threw 295 incomplete passes and were in hurry-up mode on the 4th quarter of lots of games in 2012. The Eagles defense looks to be terrible, which might mean lots of plays in the fourth quarter, but it will also likely limit the number of plays the offense will get to run (unless the defense gives up a lot of short drives, the other team will be able to bleed the clock). Forcing three-and-outs on defense is a great way to get more plays, but that doesn’t seem in the cards for the Eagles in 2013.
On the other hand, it would be naive to think Kelly was showing us everything — or close to everything — in the preseason. And this neutered version of the Kelly offense, while not operating at an otherworldy pace we’ve never seen before, still operated at an extremely fast pace, one that would challenge the Patriots for the league lead. Kelly’s tempo is for real, but running 1200 plays involves more than tempo. It involves efficiency on both sides of the ball, which may not happen for Kelly until 2014.
This is the 32nd team preview I’ve written this year. You can read them all here:
Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams
References
| ↑1 | There are also times that snaps take over 60 seconds of clock time (notably after a presnap penalty by the offense), but I’ve eliminated them from the dataset. Why? I believe some are errors, and the rest represent such a small percentage of overall snaps that it was not worth showing. |
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| ↑2 | As it turns out, the team ran a faster pace under both Nick Foles and Matt Barkley. I’m not sure what that means. |
| ↑3 | I’ve left out the Eagles three-minute drive here based on principle, but I should mention that Vick did run an up-tempo, 74-yard drive for a touchdown that ran 7 plays in 2:07 (although that was aided by the two-minute warning and one timeout). The Eagles also got the ball back with 24 seconds left in the half, and a short drive ended in an interception. |
| ↑4 | As was pointed out to me via e-mail, when a player goes out of bounds with 2+ minutes in the first half or 5+ minutes in the second half, the clock stops and then starts on the spot. So in this instance, the nine seconds probably represents about 5-7 seconds before Vick ran out of bounds and 2-4 seconds between the ball being set and snapped. |
