Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, and the 2016 Draft

by Chase Stuart on December 16, 2016

in Uncategorized

There were 15 quarterbacks selected in the 2016 NFL Draft. Two notable ones were Big 10 stars Christian Hackenberg and Connor Cook.

Hackenberg had an impressive freshman year at PSU, then regressed significantly. He had the tools but not the resume, making him one of the more polarizing prospects out there. The Jets drafted him 51st overall. Last year, Penn State went 7-6; this year, without Hackenberg, the team went 11-2. That represents an increase in winning percentage of 0.308.

Meanwhile, Cook led the Spartans to a 12-2 record last year. This year, without Cook and a number of other veterans, Michigan State collapsed, going 3-9. That’s a decline in winning percentage of 0.607. That’s the second largest decline, behind Mississippi State post-Dak Prescott.

Here were the 15 quarterbacks drafted:

Rnd	Pick ▲	Tm	Player	Pos	College/Univ
1	1	LAR	Jared Goff	QB	California	College Stats
1	2	PHI	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota St.	College Stats
1	26	DEN	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis	College Stats
2	51	NYJ	Christian Hackenberg	QB	Penn St.	College Stats
3	91	NWE	Jacoby Brissett	QB	North Carolina St.	College Stats
3	93	CLE	Cody Kessler	QB	USC	College Stats
4	100	OAK	Connor Cook	QB	Michigan St.	College Stats
4	135	DAL	Dak Prescott	QB	Mississippi St.	College Stats
4	139	BUF	Cardale Jones	QB	Ohio St.	College Stats
5	162	KAN	Kevin Hogan	QB	Stanford	College Stats
6	187	WAS	Nate Sudfeld	QB	Indiana	College Stats
6	191	DET	Jake Rudock	QB	Michigan	College Stats
6	201	JAX	Brandon Allen	QB	Arkansas	College Stats
6	207	SFO	Jeff Driskel	QB	Louisiana Tech	College Stats
7	223	MIA	Brandon Doughty	QB	West. Kentucky	College Stats

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

And here is the record of their college teams last year and this year, through Dec. 15:

Search:

Rd	Pk	Team	Quarterback	School	2015 Win%	2015 Rec	2016 Win%	2016 Rec	Diff
2	51	NYJ	Christian Hackenberg	Penn State	0.538	7-6	0.846	11-2	0.308
3	93	CLE	Cody Kessler	Southern California	0.571	8-6	0.75	9-3	0.179
6	191	DET	Jake Rudock	Michigan	0.769	10-3	0.833	10-2	0.064
6	187	WAS	Nate Sudfeld	Indiana	0.462	6-7	0.5	6-6	0.038
4	139	BUF	Cardale Jones	Ohio State	0.923	12-1	0.917	11-1	-0.006
1	26	DEN	Paxton Lynch	Memphis	0.692	9-4	0.667	8-4	-0.025
6	201	JAX	Brandon Allen	Arkansas	0.615	8-5	0.583	7-5	-0.032
3	91	NWE	Jacoby Brissett	North Carolina State	0.538	7-6	0.5	6-6	-0.038
1	2	PHI	Carson Wentz	North Dakota St.	0.929	12-1	0.867	13-2	-0.062
6	207	SFO	Jeff Driskel	Louisiana Tech	0.692	9-4	0.615	8-5	-0.077
7	223	MIA	Brandon Doughty	Western Kentucky	0.857	12-2	0.769	10-3	-0.088
5	162	KAN	Kevin Hogan	Stanford	0.857	12-2	0.75	9-3	-0.107
1	1	LAR	Jared Goff	California	0.615	8-5	0.417	5-7	-0.198
4	135	DAL	Dak Prescott	Mississippi State	0.692	9-4	0.417	5-7	-0.275
4	100	OAK	Connor Cook	Michigan State	0.857	12-2	0.25	3-9	-0.607

Let’s be clear: wins and losses aren’t a great way to measure a quarterback, and there’s a ton of noise in the data before you start comparing teams across seasons. Connor Cook on the 2016 Spartans wouldn’t have made Michigan State 12-2. That said, I find this stuff interesting in at least a trivia perspective. But maybe there’s a bit more to it, too. What do you think?

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