Eli Manning ranks 2nd in the NFL in completion rate with a remarkable 74.2% average. Houston’s Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, ranks 27th out of 34 qualifying passers with a 62.2% completion percentage. But that’s a bit misleading, because as I’ve written about before, first down percentage is a much more important metric than completion percentage.
For Watson, 62 of his 92 completed passes have gone for a first down, meaning just 33% of his completed passes didn’t pick up a first down. For Manning, just 53 of his 112 completions have gone for a first down, which means a whopping 53% of his completions didn’t pick up a first down.
Completion percentage is supposed to measure how consistent a quarterback is at making positive plays. A better formula than (completed passes/pass attempts) is (first downs gained via the pass / [pass attempts + sacks] ). In other words, the numerator should be passing first downs, not completed passes, and the denominator should include sacks.
Do that for the Giants and Texans, [1]Note that Manning and Watson are the only players to throw a pass so far this season for those teams. and you see a pretty big chance. New York has picked up a first down on 32% of all passing plays this year, while Houston has done so on 38% of all passing plays. The graph below shows where each team ranks in two metrics: first downs per pass play, on the X-Axis, and completion percentage, on the Y-Axis. The two black lines show league average; this means to the left of 33.4% on the X-Axis means a team is below average at picking up first downs, and under 65.5% on the Y-Axis means a team is below average in terms of completion percentage.
The two biggest outliers are the Giants and Texans. New York is second in completion percentage, but noticeably below average at gaining first downs. Houston is solidly above-average at gaining first downs, but below average in completion rate. The teams in the upper left box are going to be overrated when you look at completion percentage (Giants, Bears, Eagles, Colts), while the teams in the bottom right box will be underrated (Houston being the clearest example).
Finally, here’s the full data set. Here’s how to read the table, using the Rams as the example. Los Angeles has completed 97 of 135 passes for a 71.9% completion rate, which ranks 3rd. The Rams have 64 first downs, so LA is averaging a 1st down on 66% of its completed passes, which ranks 3rd. The Rams have 5 sacks, which means the Rams have picked up a first down on 45.7% of all passing plays, the best rate in the NFL. The table is sorted by first downs per passing play, which is the most important stat in the table:
| Tm | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Cmp% Rk | 1stD | 1D/Cmp | 1D/Cmp Rk | Sk | 1D/PP | 1D/PP Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 97 | 135 | 71.9% | 3 | 64 | 66% | 3 | 5 | 45.7% | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 103 | 149 | 69.1% | 8 | 68 | 66% | 2 | 9 | 43% | 2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 100 | 147 | 68% | 11 | 62 | 62% | 5 | 6 | 40.5% | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 99 | 145 | 68.3% | 10 | 60 | 60.6% | 9 | 10 | 38.7% | 4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 64 | 95 | 67.4% | 13 | 39 | 60.9% | 8 | 6 | 38.6% | 5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 90 | 138 | 65.2% | 18 | 55 | 61.1% | 7 | 5 | 38.5% | 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 103 | 157 | 65.6% | 17 | 63 | 61.2% | 6 | 7 | 38.4% | 7 |
| Houston Texans | 92 | 148 | 62.2% | 25 | 62 | 67.4% | 1 | 17 | 37.6% | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 131 | 189 | 69.3% | 7 | 74 | 56.5% | 14 | 13 | 36.6% | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 97 | 150 | 64.7% | 19 | 57 | 58.8% | 11 | 6 | 36.5% | 10 |
| Oakland Raiders | 120 | 169 | 71% | 4 | 64 | 53.3% | 18 | 8 | 36.2% | 11 |
| New Orleans Saints | 123 | 163 | 75.5% | 1 | 61 | 49.6% | 22 | 6 | 36.1% | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 119 | 186 | 64% | 20 | 70 | 58.8% | 10 | 9 | 35.9% | 13 |
| Washington Redskins | 66 | 96 | 68.8% | 9 | 36 | 54.5% | 15 | 6 | 35.3% | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | 114 | 171 | 66.7% | 14 | 62 | 54.4% | 16 | 6 | 35% | 15 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 76 | 126 | 60.3% | 29 | 48 | 63.2% | 4 | 14 | 34.3% | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | 70 | 100 | 70% | 5.5 | 37 | 52.9% | 19 | 8 | 34.3% | 17 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 111 | 175 | 63.4% | 21 | 63 | 56.8% | 13 | 10 | 34.1% | 18.5 |
| New England Patriots | 121 | 179 | 67.6% | 12 | 63 | 52.1% | 20 | 6 | 34.1% | 18.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 91 | 130 | 70% | 5.5 | 45 | 49.5% | 23 | 10 | 32.1% | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 78 | 124 | 62.9% | 22 | 42 | 53.8% | 17 | 7 | 32.1% | 21 |
| New York Giants | 112 | 151 | 74.2% | 2 | 53 | 47.3% | 28 | 15 | 31.9% | 22 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 163 | 246 | 66.3% | 16 | 79 | 48.5% | 25 | 10 | 30.9% | 23 |
| New York Jets | 73 | 127 | 57.5% | 30 | 42 | 57.5% | 12 | 10 | 30.7% | 24 |
| Denver Broncos | 87 | 141 | 61.7% | 27 | 42 | 48.3% | 26 | 9 | 28% | 25 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 71 | 115 | 61.7% | 26 | 36 | 50.7% | 21 | 14 | 27.9% | 26 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 113 | 170 | 66.5% | 15 | 50 | 44.2% | 31 | 14 | 27.2% | 27 |
| Green Bay Packers | 103 | 164 | 62.8% | 24 | 48 | 46.6% | 29 | 14 | 27% | 28 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 76 | 121 | 62.8% | 23 | 36 | 47.4% | 27 | 16 | 26.3% | 29 |
| Cleveland Browns | 79 | 148 | 53.4% | 31 | 39 | 49.4% | 24 | 16 | 23.8% | 30 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 69 | 114 | 60.5% | 28 | 27 | 39.1% | 32 | 8 | 22.1% | 31 |
| Buffalo Bills | 60 | 121 | 49.6% | 32 | 27 | 45% | 30 | 21 | 19% | 32 |
| NFL | 3071 | 4690 | 65.5% | 1674 | 54.5% | 321 | 33.4% |
From a historical perspective, the Bills 19.0% rate is absurd. Since 1970, just two teams — the 1975 Saints (18.4%) and 1977 Bucs (18.7%) have ever finished a season with a rate lower than 19%. The fact that a team in 2018 could match the poor numbers from the dead ball era is remarkable. The best rate in history came from the 2004 Colts at 44.0%; the Rams are currently ahead of that, of course, but it’s only been four games. Since 1999, the three best rates in terms of passing first downs per pass play through four games belong to the 2013 Broncos (47.0%), 2000 Rams (45.8%), and 2018 Rams (45.7%).
References
| ↑1 | Note that Manning and Watson are the only players to throw a pass so far this season for those teams. |
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