Eli Manning in elite INT territory

by Chase Stuart on December 20, 2013

in History, Passing, Trivia

After a five-interception performance against a dominant Seattle pass defense, Eli Manning now has 25 interceptions this season. The odds are extremely low, but it’s not impossible that he throws ten more interceptions and ties the modern record set by Vinny Testaverde in 1988. That year, a 25-year-old Testaverde threw 35 interceptions when the league average interception rate was 3.91%. Since Testaverde threw 466 passes that season, we could say that a league-average quarterback would have thrown 18.2 interceptions; therefore, Testaverde threw 16.8 interceptions over average that year.

So far in 2013, the average interception rate is just 2.70%. Since Manning has thrown 485 passes, we would expect a league-average passer to record 13.1 interceptions. With 25 interceptions, that puts Manning at 11.9 interceptions above average. The table below shows the top 100 leaders in interceptions over average since 1950.

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	Year	Team	Lg	Age	INT	Att	LgAvg INTRt	INTovAvg
1	Vinny Testaverde	1988	tam	NFL	25	35	466	3.91%	16.8
2	George Blanda	1962	oti	AFL	35	42	418	7%	12.7
3	Terry Bradshaw	1970	pit	NFL	22	24	218	5.21%	12.7
4	Eli Manning	2013	nyg	NFL	32	25	485	2.7%	11.9
5	Jake Plummer	1999	crd	NFL	25	24	381	3.35%	11.2
6	Geno Smith	2013	nyj	NFL	23	21	380	2.7%	10.7
7	Joe Namath	1975	nyj	NFL	32	28	326	5.34%	10.6
8	Brett Favre	2005	gnb	NFL	36	29	607	3.07%	10.3
9	Eddie LeBaron	1960	dal	NFL	30	25	225	6.66%	10
10	Tommy Wade	1965	pit	NFL	23	13	66	5.12%	9.6
11	Norm Snead	1973	nyg	NFL	34	22	235	5.31%	9.5
12	Kerry Collins	1997	car	NFL	25	21	381	3.05%	9.4
13	Tobin Rote	1959	det	NFL	31	19	162	5.95%	9.4
14	Zeke Bratkowski	1960	chi	NFL	29	21	175	6.66%	9.3
15	Dennis Shaw	1971	buf	NFL	24	26	291	5.78%	9.2
16	Peyton Manning	1998	clt	NFL	22	28	575	3.29%	9.1
17	Josh Freeman	2009	tam	NFL	21	18	290	3.08%	9.1
18	Eli Manning	2010	nyg	NFL	29	25	539	2.96%	9.1
19	Bobby Thomason	1956	phi	NFL	28	21	164	7.31%	9
20	Jay Cutler	2009	chi	NFL	26	26	555	3.08%	8.9
21	Jack Kemp	1964	buf	AFL	29	26	269	6.37%	8.9
22	Mark Sanchez	2009	nyj	NFL	23	20	364	3.08%	8.8
23	Y.A. Tittle	1955	sfo	NFL	29	28	287	6.75%	8.6
24	George Herring	1961	den	AFL	27	22	211	6.39%	8.5
25	Craig Whelihan	1998	sdg	NFL	27	19	320	3.29%	8.5

Manning currently ranks 4th, although it won’t take much for him to vault into second place. ^[1]Note that for the 1960s, I calculated the AFL and NFL as two separate leagues with two separate interception rates. I did not remove each quarterback when calculating the league average, which would … Continue reading It’s been an ugly year for both New York teams, as Geno Smith ranks second in the league at 10.7 interceptions over average, and there is a huge gap between Manning and Smith and number three on the list, Terrelle Pryor, at 4.7. For Jets fans, this is particularly discomforting, coming off the heels of a 2012 season where Mark Sanchez led the league with 6.1 interceptions above average.

What about the best interception production since 1950? That title belongs to Atlanta’s Steve Bartkowski, who threw only five interceptions in 1983 on 432 pass attempts. No quarterback from 2013 makes the list, with Kansas City’s Alex Smith currently atop the league with 7.0 interceptions below average.

entries per page

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	Year	Team	Lg	Age	INT	Att	INT RT	INTovAvg
1	Steve Bartkowski	1983	atl	NFL	31	5	432	4.41%	-14.1
2	Sonny Jurgensen	1967	was	NFL	33	16	508	5.67%	-12.8
3	Roman Gabriel	1969	ram	NFL	29	7	399	4.9%	-12.6
4	Roman Gabriel	1973	phi	NFL	33	12	460	5.31%	-12.4
5	Ken O'Brien	1985	nyj	NFL	25	8	488	4.17%	-12.4
6	Jim Hart	1974	crd	NFL	30	8	388	5.2%	-12.2
7	Fran Tarkenton	1969	nyg	NFL	29	8	409	4.9%	-12
8	Fran Tarkenton	1976	min	NFL	36	8	412	4.84%	-12
9	Steve DeBerg	1990	kan	NFL	36	4	444	3.55%	-11.8
10	Roger Staubach	1977	dal	NFL	35	9	361	5.74%	-11.7
11	Milt Plum	1960	cle	NFL	25	5	250	6.66%	-11.7
12	Bert Jones	1977	clt	NFL	26	11	393	5.74%	-11.6
13	Y.A. Tittle	1954	sfo	NFL	28	9	295	6.95%	-11.5
14	Brian Sipe	1980	cle	NFL	31	14	554	4.57%	-11.3
15	Bernie Kosar	1986	cle	NFL	23	10	531	4.02%	-11.3
16	Johnny Unitas	1963	clt	NFL	30	12	410	5.58%	-10.9
17	Joe Montana	1983	sfo	NFL	27	12	515	4.41%	-10.7
18	Marc Bulger	2006	ram	NFL	29	8	588	3.17%	-10.7
19	Ken Anderson	1981	cin	NFL	32	10	479	4.29%	-10.6
20	Tom Brady	2010	nwe	NFL	33	4	492	2.96%	-10.6
21	Chris Miller	1989	atl	NFL	24	10	526	3.9%	-10.5
22	Bert Jones	1975	clt	NFL	24	8	344	5.34%	-10.4
23	Roman Gabriel	1971	ram	NFL	31	10	352	5.78%	-10.3
24	Roger Staubach	1979	dal	NFL	37	11	461	4.6%	-10.2
25	Tom Brady	2007	nwe	NFL	30	8	578	3.13%	-10.1

We can also use this same process to create career lists. For Manning, 2013 is just the latest in a long line of bad interception seasons. His struggles this year, combined with his previous issues, have him in the top ten in career ^[2]Only quarterback seasons beginning in 1950 were included. interceptions over average:

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	INT	INT RT	INTovAvg
1	Steve Grogan	1975	1990	3593	208	5.8%	41.4
2	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	6701	267	4%	39
3	Lynn Dickey	1971	1985	3125	179	5.7%	35.9
4	Ken Stabler	1970	1984	3793	222	5.9%	35.5
5	Zeke Bratkowski	1954	1971	1484	122	8.2%	31.8
6	Trent Dilfer	1994	2007	3172	129	4.1%	27.5
7	Richard Todd	1976	1985	2967	161	5.4%	25.1
8	Jon Kitna	1997	2011	4442	165	3.7%	23
9	Eli Manning	2004	2013	4942	169	3.4%	23
10	Eddie LeBaron	1952	1963	1796	141	7.9%	22.6
11	King Hill	1958	1969	881	71	8.1%	21.8
12	Mike Tomczak	1985	1999	2337	106	4.5%	21.7
13	Jake Plummer	1997	2006	4350	161	3.7%	21.3
14	Randy Johnson	1966	1976	1286	90	7%	21
15	Norm Snead	1961	1976	4353	257	5.9%	20.5
16	Vince Ferragamo	1977	1986	1615	91	5.6%	19.6
17	George Blanda	1950	1975	3986	272	6.8%	19.4
18	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	2013	2549	91	3.6%	18.4
19	Dennis Shaw	1970	1975	924	68	7.4%	17.9
20	Marc Wilson	1980	1990	2081	102	4.9%	17.6
21	Jim Plunkett	1971	1986	3701	198	5.3%	17.2
22	Vince Evans	1978	1995	1390	74	5.3%	17
23	Ed Brown	1954	1965	1987	138	6.9%	16.9
24	Mike Phipps	1970	1981	1799	108	6%	15.4
25	Joe Kapp	1967	1970	918	64	7%	15.3

What about the best 100 passers at avoiding interceptions, after adjusting for era? The leader is Roman Gabriel, who also ranked 2nd on the list of avoiding interceptions on incomplete passes.

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	First Yr	Last Yr	Att	INT	INT Rt	INTovAvg
1	Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	4498	149	3.3%	-90.8
2	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	6467	266	4.1%	-82.1
3	Joe Montana	1979	1994	5391	139	2.6%	-75
4	Tom Brady	2000	2013	6536	133	2%	-64.9
5	Ken Anderson	1971	1986	4475	160	3.6%	-59.4
6	Dan Marino	1983	1999	8358	252	3%	-53.6
7	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	5374	117	2.2%	-51
8	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	5186	253	4.9%	-47.4
9	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	2958	109	3.7%	-45.5
10	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	4262	189	4.4%	-43.6
11	Bart Starr	1956	1971	3149	138	4.4%	-42
12	Mark Brunell	1994	2011	4640	108	2.3%	-41.2
13	Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	3602	98	2.7%	-40.9
14	Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	3365	87	2.6%	-40
15	Neil Lomax	1981	1988	3153	90	2.9%	-40
16	Peyton Manning	1998	2013	8373	219	2.6%	-39.2
17	Neil O'Donnell	1991	2003	3229	68	2.1%	-38.2
18	John Elway	1983	1998	7250	226	3.1%	-37.2
19	Rich Gannon	1987	2004	4206	104	2.5%	-36.4
20	Steve Young	1985	1999	4149	107	2.6%	-35.8
21	Jeff Garcia	1999	2008	3676	83	2.3%	-33.9
22	Aaron Rodgers	2005	2013	2916	50	1.7%	-33.5
23	Len Dawson	1957	1975	3741	183	4.9%	-33.2
24	Y.A. Tittle	1950	1964	3817	221	5.8%	-29.3
25	Phil Simms	1979	1993	4647	157	3.4%	-29

Fran Tarkenton is fifth on the career list of interceptions, but that’s extremely misleading. He had an above-average interception rate most of his career, and twice led the league in interception rate. He happened to throw a lot of passes — he retired as the career leader in pass attempts, and currently ranks 10th — and played in an environment where interceptions were much more common. He had five top-100 seasons in interceptions below average, including two top ten years. While he may be fifth on the career interceptions list, his second-place ranking in interceptions below average is a much better representation of Tarkenton the passer.

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that for the 1960s, I calculated the AFL and NFL as two separate leagues with two separate interception rates. I did not remove each quarterback when calculating the league average, which would arguably be more appropriate but would also take more work!
↑2	Only quarterback seasons beginning in 1950 were included.

Tagged as: Interceptions

{ 10 comments }