Daily fantasy football is pretty sweet, and I’ve become very active in it this year. I’ve only played on FanDuel (affiliate link, here), so my analysis will be limited strictly to that site.
At FanDuel, you start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 defense, with a salary cap of $60,000. The scoring system is pretty standard, with 0.5 points per reception being the most notable feature to keep in mind. There are generally two that I play: 50/50s, or what people refer to as cash games, where you say, pay $25 to enter a tournament of 50 people, and the top 25 people win $45. The house gets roughly the same cut of ~10% in most games, so the 50/50 is the low-variance play.
The other option is to play in tournaments, which can range from large, to very large, to absurdly large. Anyway, enough minutia. I have limited my play to 50/50s this week, although I did enter one tournament lineup which I’ll explain at the end.
Lineup 1
I entered five lineups for Thursday night, with four of them being 50-person 50/50s. Please keep that in mind when I list the percentage ownership information.
I really like the Andrew Luck/Trent Richardson combo in 50/50s this week. Richardson is only $5700 because the Ahmad Bradshaw injury news was not known by the time FanDuel set his price, so this seems like a very high floor play. It is also one with strong upside given the opponent (Jacksonville), and the fact that Luck ($10,300) is always capable of a 3-4 TD game. Luck was owned by 12%, Richardson 32%, in this game.
The two WRs I really like this week are Cecil Shorts ($6300, 16%) and Julio Jones ($8000, 6%). Shorts received 7 targets last week and has actually seen 61 targets in his 7 games this year; with Allen Robinson out for the year and the Jaguars likely to be throwing a lot, a 10+ target today seems very likely. For just $6300, he’s a great play in both 50/50s and tourneys.
I want to go back to the Julio Jones well because he’s still an elite fantasy wide receiver who just hasn’t scored touchdowns. He’s THIRD in the NFL in targets, and it’s not like we have any questions about his talent or his ability to score TDs generally. His price is “only” $8K because he hasn’t reached the end zone, but it feels like he has a 140/2 game in him coming soon, and I don’t want to miss that boat. The matchup is not great, but Cleveland does rank 25th in DVOA against #1 WRs, so there are good numbers if you want to look for them.
With Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas both questionable, and Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman out, that spells great things for C.J. Anderson (14%). Miami is not an ideal matchup, but he really should cost more than $7200 given what should his large percentage of the always tasty Denver pie.
The Chiefs D against the Raiders is an obvious pick (whoops! — 16%), and worth spending the $5400 on. I also like Caleb Sturgis in Mile High (apparently I was the only one — 2%, $5100). That leaves me with $13K for a tight end and wide receiver: Keenan Allen (4%, $6500) and Larry Donnell (10%, $5500) are both decent vlaues this week, so let’s go there.
Luck/Richardson/Anderson/Shorts/Julio/Allen/Donnell/Sturgis/Chiefs
Lineup 2
Charles Sims is now the starter in TB, and is crazy value at $4900 (4% — that’s very interesting). I want to have Matt Forte ($9300, 10%) in some lineup, and since he’s the most expensive RB this week, pairing him with Sims makes sense from a money standpoint. I think it probably decreases my variance somewhat, too, to have both RBs in the same game in a 50/50.
Going with Sims also lets me grab Rob Gronkowski for $7900, and Gronk is basically a value play every week (12%). At kicker, I like Cody Parkey for $5K (only 4%, which seems crazy to me), and the Eagles D at home for $5100 against the Titans also seems pretty good (24%).
Julio Jones (16%) and Cecil Shorts (18%) are mainstays this week, and that leaves me with $13,500. As it turns out, there are value plays at QB/WR that get me there. Mark Sanchez ($7500, 24%) is Footballguys’ top value QB this week; we know he stinks, but so do the Titans, and Sanchez scored 15.8 points last week despite playing poorly. In retrospect, his ownership percentage also makes me feel more comfortable with the move. I also thik Marques Colston (22%) is an interesting play with Brandin Cooks out for the year, and seeing him cost just $6000 in a game where the Saints are at home sounds good to me.
Sanchez/Sims/Forte/Colston/Julio/Shorts/Gronk/Parkey/Eagles
Lineup 3
I also wanted to get DeMarco Murray ($9K) in a lineup since he faces the Giants, and Murray is always a good bet for 2X. The Giants are 32nd in both rushing yards allowed and YPC allowed, so I have a good feeling about Murray this week. I am not alone — he’s owned by 28% of folks in this 50/50. Isaiah Crowell has an incredible matchup against Atlanta — the Falcons have looked better aginst the run in recent weeks, but I think that’s only because they played Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. Through 7 weeks, Atlanta had allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this season. Crowell for $5500 could be a huge steal. Again, not alone here, as he was owned by 22% of folks.
Like Richardson, Coby Fleener is undervalued this week because of the timing of the Dwayne Allen injury news. He’s only $5400 and has a great matchup: as a result, he’s owned by 44% of folks. I’m a little concerned about possible weather effects for this weekend. It looks to be cold, rainy, and maybe windy in a lot of places, and that could mean last week’s trend of more running repeats itself. As a result, I like Matt Ryan at home for $7600 (10%), Kenny Stills for $5900 (24%), and Justin Tucker for $5100 (4%). Demaryius Thomas for $9000 (18%) and Reggie Wayne for $6900 (8%) both are decent values, as wide receivers who have good chances of getting into the end zone. That leaves me with just enough money to grab the Colts D (the most expensive D on the board at $5600, and as a result, just 6% ownership).
Ryan/Murray/Crowell/Thomas/Wayne/Stills/Fleener/Tucker/Colts
Lineup 4
Finally, I wanted Jamaal Charles in a lineup ($9100, 38%). As it turned out, he was very good but not great, so having him gets you off to a good start but doesn’t necessarily differentiate yourself, either. I think Rashad Jennings for $6600 is pretty good value againt DAL, too ($6600, 10%). I am really struggling with QBs this week, between possible bad weather and tough matchups for the top guys. At the end, I think Andrew Luck (16%) is just the safest bet to really propel your team this week. For $10.3K, I’d rather go with him and expect 25 points then hope for 20 points out of a guy for $8K. To field a Luck/Charles lineup you need to save money elsewhere, but there are things you can do:
— Both Cecil Shorts ($6300, 14%) and Allen Hurns ($5900, 2%) combine for just $12.1K. You need 24 points out of the two of them, which is something like 10-130-1. That’s basically what you would project for them, and I think there’s some real garbage time upside, too.
— Travis Kelce ($5400, 2%) was hurt by the game script last week, as KC had just 16 passes. If that happens again, we’re probably really happy, because it means the Jamaal Charles pick was a home run. I think the Charles/Kelce pairing can reduce variance here, and outside of the big guys at TE, I dunno if there’s anything really safer than Kelce. (Obviously I wrote this before the game: as it turned out, the Chiefs hate Kelce, but he still finished with a respectable 8.7 points. Combined with Charles, that’s 28.9 points on $14,500, so almost exactly 2X. Of course, given the ownership information, I would have preferred more of that having gone to Kelce.)
I really like the Packers D (8%) in Minnesota for $5500 — no, GB won’t get 30 points like they did last week, but the Vikings offense looks really bad, and bad weather and a bad game script should lead to a good play. I’d be surprised if GB doesn’t get a few sacks and a couple of turnovers, and there’s a decent chance for a TD. I’ll go cheap at kicker with Brandon McManus ($4500, 22%), and hope that maybe DEN kicks more if the offense is more effective than it was against STL but less effective than it usually is.
The last piece here is Andre Johnson at $6400 (16%). Mallett only threw 30 times last week, but he targeted Johnson 9 times. In what should be a more competitive game, I like Johnson’s chances here. He’s tied with T.Y. Hilton for 12th in targets this year, so it’s not like he’s not part of the offense. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick sunk his value, and Johnson could be back to a viable WR1 under Mallett.
Tournament Lineup
Finally, I entered a 114-person tournament.
I stuck with Luck ($10,300, 10.5%), Jennings ($6600, 6.1%), Julio Jones ($8000 and an incredibly low 2.6%, which could be great news), Shorts ($6300, 10.5%) Colston ($6000, 14.9%), Fleener ($5400, 34.2%), and McManus ($4500, 21.9%).
The two unique plays here were the Buffalo Bills D ($5200, 8.8%) and LeSean McCoy ($7700, 9.6%). I was hoping for lower ownership numbers, but both have strong matchups this week. With the Bills being forced out of Buffalo I thought people might not pick them, but any good defense against the Jets and Vick is a good play. I have been on the McCoy train for weeks, and like with Julio Jones, it seems like a 130-yard, 2-touchdown day is around the corner. He’s at home against a bad defense, so it’s worth taking a chance on him in a tourney.